Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 04:57 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across eastern frontlines. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 116 combat engagements since the start of Apr 4 (as of 19:00 UTC Apr 4). Russian offensive pressure is highest on the Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk axes, heavily supported by aviation (126 KABs reported Apr 4), drones (966 kamikaze drones Apr 4), and artillery (4,687 attacks Apr 4).
Kryvyi Rih Major Incident (Apr 4) - UPDATED:
Combined Attacks (Ballistic Missile & Shahed Drones): Final confirmed casualties (Mayor Vilkul, Apr 5): 19 Civilians KIA (incl. 9 children), 68 Civilians Wounded (40 hospitalized, incl. children in critical condition). Rescue operations concluded ~02:45 UTC Apr 5.
Ballistic Missile Strike (Afternoon): Confirmed Russian Iskander-M with cluster munition hit a residential area, playground. Initial report: 18 KIA (incl. 9 children), 61 Wounded. Damage: ~20 multi-story residential buildings, 6 educational facilities, restaurant, >30 vehicles.
Russian Information Warfare: Intense campaign falsely claiming a military target, denying civilian casualties, disputing weapon type (specifically denying cluster munition use - Dnevnik Desantnika Apr 5), and attempting to discredit Ukrainian reports. Continued dissemination of alleged POW testimony regarding claimed abuses (Apr 5). RU sources (Dva Mayora) reiterate claim of hitting a meeting with commanders/Western instructors.
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations:
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Kursk Oblast, repelling 11 Russian attacks Apr 4 (1 ongoing as of 19:00 UTC Apr 4). Operations assessed to tie down a significant 64,000-strong Russian grouping. No Ukrainian units encircled. RU MoD previously claimed neutralizing >190 UA personnel. RU sources (NgP raZVedka) display images of alleged captured Ukrainian anti-tank mines in Kursk Oblast (Apr 5).
RU CLAIM (Apr 5 - Dva Mayora): Fighting ongoing near Basovka (Sumy) with RU initiative. RU forces advancing towards Oleshnia (Kursk). Civilian evacuation reported from Huyevo (Kursk). RU engineering units conducting demining in Sudzha border area. Alleged continued UA infantry infiltration attempts repelled in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod) near Demidovka/Popovka. Claimed UA reinforcing artillery/MLRS positions in Krasnopolsky district (Sumy).
RU CLAIM (Apr 4/5): UA FPV drone hit civilian car in Mokrushino, Kursk Oblast, injuring a civilian female (Apr 4). FPV drone damaged power substation in Lemeshovka, Bryansk Oblast; MLRS strike damaged bridge between Demyanki/Azarovka, Bryansk Oblast; drones attacked agricultural enterprise in Starodubsky district, Bryansk Oblast; IED detonated near civilian car between Churovichi/Khoromnoye, Bryansk Oblast, injuring driver (Apr 5).
Confirmed UAV attack caused large fire at "Optical Fiber Systems" plant (produces potentially military-relevant components) in Saransk, Mordovia. Claimed as Russia's only such plant. Mordovia Governor confirms UAV attack on unnamed enterprise, no casualties (ASTRA, Apr 5).
Confirmed UAV attack targeted an industrial enterprise in Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast, causing a fire (RU Governor confirms attack, no casualties). Attack likely targeted the "Promsintez" explosives plant (major producer, previously attacked late March 2025).
Russian Air Defense Claims - UPDATED:
RU MoD claims 49 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Russian territory overnight (TASS/ASTRA, Apr 5).
Governor of Voronezh Oblast claimed at least 10 downed over that region.
Bryansk Governor claims 1 UA UAV downed over Bryansk Oblast overnight (Apr 5).
Russian Strikes on Ukraine:
Shahed UAV Attack:ENDED around 01:00 UTC Apr 5. Reports of explosions overnight in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy oblasts (RU Source). Impacts in Kryvyi Rih (see above). Falling debris caused fire in Kyiv City (Desnyanskyi district, extinguished, no casualties). 6 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (Lysak, Apr 5).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Other - Apr 5): Drone strike damaged transport enterprise in Hrushivska community. Morning strike damaged private houses in Malomykhailivska community. Artillery/UAV attacks on Nikopol district (Marhanetska, Pokrovska, Chervonohryhorivska communities) damaged infrastructure.
Ongoing Threats (as of 04:57 UTC Apr 5): Russian tactical aviation active on northeastern and southeastern directions. Ongoing threat of air-launched weapon employment (e.g., KABs) for frontline oblasts.
Naval Situation (As of Morning Apr 5 - UA Navy via RBC):
Black Sea:1 Russian missile carrier deployed, potential salvo up to 4 Kalibr missiles.
Russian Advances Confirmed (DeepState, Apr 4): Enemy forces advanced within Toretsk city and in Mali Shcherbaky (Orikhiv axis).
RU MoD Claims (Apr 4/5): Claimed liberation of Uspenivka (Pokrovsk axis - reiterated Apr 5) and Rozovka (Novopavlivsk axis). RU sources also reiterated claims of capturing Vesele (Novopavlivsk) and Lobkove (Orikhiv). RU MoD Confirmed capture of Aleksandropol (Toretsk Axis) previously.
NEW RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko, Apr 5): Russian forces advancing on several directions within Kondrashovka, Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk axis).
NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Apr 5): Successes claimed NW of Aleksandropol in Tarasivka (Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis). RU forces advanced >1.5km depth / 1km front near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk axis - "Vostok" Group). Active RU offensive actions near Kamyanske (Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia axis). UA sources reporting RU assault on Kamyanka (Kupyansk axis).
Ukrainian Advance Claimed (Apr 3 - Verification Pending): Liberation of Nadiia (Luhansk, near Svatove) by 3rd Assault Brigade.
Reported Losses (Apr 4-5):
Ukrainian Claims (UGS, Apr 5 AM for past 24h): RU losses: ~1390 personnel (Cumulative ~922,340), +10 tanks (Total 10,000), +24 AFVs (Total 19,202), +67 artillery systems (Total 20,197), +1 MLRS (Total 1,213), +0 AD systems, +0 aircraft, +0 helicopters, +105 OTL UAVs (Total 19,248), +0 cruise missiles, +0 ships/boats, +0 submarines, +113 vehicles/fuel tanks (Total 25,256), +0 special equipment. (Note: UGS indicated cumulative totals for OTR UAVs/Cruise Missiles required correction, but daily figures are presented as current).
RU Claims (Equipment/Personnel):
Images shared of captured/damaged French VAB APC and Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle near Kurakhove (Novopavlivsk axis, Apr 4).
Video released claiming UAV operators disabled a US MaxxPro MRAP near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk axis, Apr 5).
NEW RU Claim (MoD/Savchuk via TASS, Apr 5): Claimed destruction of 1 Leopard tank, other vehicles, and artillery (incl. Western-made) within the "Center" Group's zone of responsibility (Pokrovsk axis). Claimed up to 430 UA personnel losses (KIA/WIA).
NEW RU Claim (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 5): 98th VDV Div units (215th Recon Bn, 331st PDR) destroyed 2x M113 APCs and 1x D-30 howitzer near Chasiv Yar.
NEW RU Claim (Voin DV, Apr 5): UAV operators (35th CAA) claimed liquidation of a UA reconnaissance group on the Polohy direction (Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia axis). Claimed destruction of 4 UA accommodation points, 4 bunkers, 1 fire position and up to 20 UA servicemen killed via assault group/UAV operations (Orikhiv axis).
Diplomatic/Political/Other:
Potential Peace Negotiations: Reports indicate French President Macron aims to position himself as Europe's representative for potential future peace talks with Putin (The Telegraph via RBC).
US-Russia Contact: Head of RDIF Kirill Dmitriev confirmed leaving the US after "constructive negotiations," nature unspecified (TASS).
US Admin Error: Reports confirmed Ukrainians legally in the US under a humanitarian program mistakenly received emails ordering them to leave; DHS confirmed error (Reuters via RBC).
Global Military Posturing: Reports of US Navy carrier USS Carl Vinson transiting towards the Middle East (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 5). Reports of North Korea completing hangar construction for large UAVs at Panghyon Airbase (Colonelcassad, Apr 5).
II. Major Incident: Kryvyi Rih Ballistic Missile Strike & Subsequent Drone Attack (Apr 4) - UPDATED
Overall Impact (Mayor Vilkul, Apr 5):19 civilians KIA (incl. 9 children), 68 civilians Wounded (40 hospitalized, 17 serious in Kryvyi Rih, 2 children critical in Dnipro). Rescue operations concluded 02:45 UTC Apr 5.
Ballistic Missile Strike:
Event: Strike occurred ~15:52 UTC Apr 4, impacting a residential district near buildings, restaurant, children's playground.
Weapon: Confirmed Iskander-M ballistic missile with cluster munition, launched from Taganrog, Russia.
Damage: Significant damage to ~20 multi-story residential buildings, 6 educational facilities, restaurant, >30 vehicles. Gas supply disruption reported.
Subsequent Shahed Drone Attack (Night Apr 4):
Event: Mass Shahed UAV attack following the missile strike.
Damage: 1 private house destroyed, 1 damaged. Additional damage to 8 multi-story buildings, garages, 14 vehicles (cars, minibuses, truck). Damage reported to a playground, tram infrastructure, territory of an industrial enterprise.
Official Statements (UA): Strong condemnation of deliberate attack on civilians, emphasizing cluster munition use and impact on playground. Explicit refutation of Russian disinformation claiming military target. War crimes investigation initiated.
Russian Claim & Information Warfare: RU MoD claimed hitting military meeting. Propaganda amplified this, denying civilian hits, blaming Ukrainian provocation, disputing weapon type (specifically denying cluster munition use and blaming UA AD - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 5). Focus on "Magellan" restaurant narrative persisted. RU sources (Dva Mayora) reiterate claim of hitting meeting with commanders/Western instructors. Continued dissemination of alleged POW testimony regarding claimed torture.
III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS Report 19:00 UTC, Apr 4 & Recent Claims/Updates up to 04:57 UTC Apr 5)
Lyman Axis:Extremely High intensity. 32 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing (Apr 4). 11 engagements ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC Apr 4).
RU MoD Claim (Apr 4/5): Liberation of Uspenivka (DPR) claimed and reiterated.
NEW RU Claim (MoD/Savchuk via TASS, Apr 5): Claimed up to 430 UA personnel losses (KIA/WIA), destruction of 1 Leopard tank, multiple vehicles/artillery within the "Center" Group's operational area. Mentioned specific clashes near numerous settlements.
NEW RU Information Warfare (Colonelcassad, Apr 5): Disseminated video/report claiming destruction of older Ukrainian soldiers near Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk), highlighting evacuation difficulties.
Toretsk Axis: Intensity remains High. 18 Russian attacks focused near multiple settlements (Apr 4). 5 engagements ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC Apr 4).
NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Apr 5): Successes claimed NW of Aleksandropol in Tarasivka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):4 Russian attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove (Apr 4). 2 engagements ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC Apr 4).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Regional Update (OVA, Apr 5, Past 24h):497 Russian strikes reported across 13 settlements. Includes 1 missile strike (Kushuhum), 4 air strikes (Huliaipole, Temyrivka, Novodarivka), 300 UAV attacks, 8 MLRS attacks, 184 artillery strikes. 1 civilian WIA (near Stepnohirsk). 33 reports of damage to property/vehicles.
Russian Advance Confirmed (DeepState, Apr 4): Enemy forces advanced in Mali Shcherbaky.
NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Apr 5): Active RU offensive actions near Kamyanske.
RU CLAIM (Apr 5): Claimed destruction of 4 UA accommodation points, 4 bunkers, 1 fire position and up to 20 UA servicemen killed via assault group/UAV operations (Voin DV).
NEW RU CLAIM (Voin DV, Apr 5): UAV operators from 35th CAA ("Vostok" Group) claimed liquidation of a UA reconnaissance group on the Polohy direction.
Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast:11 Russian attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast (Apr 4), 1 ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC Apr 4). Zelenskyy confirms UA presence tying down 64k RU troops.
RU CLAIM (Apr 4/5): UA FPV drone hit civilian car in Mokrushino, Kursk Oblast (Apr 4). FPV drone damaged power substation in Lemeshovka, Bryansk; MLRS damaged bridge near Azarovka, Bryansk; drones hit agricultural enterprise in Starodubsky dist, Bryansk; IED injured civilian driver near Churovichi, Bryansk (Apr 5). Fighting ongoing near Basovka (Sumy) with RU initiative claimed. RU forces advancing towards Oleshnia (Kursk). Civilian evacuation from Huyevo (Kursk) reported. RU sources show alleged captured UA AT mines in Kursk (NgP raZVedka, Apr 5).
Russian Information Warfare (Apr 5): Continued dissemination of alleged UA POW testimony regarding abuses.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:6 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Rozdolne (Apr 4). 3 engagements ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC Apr 4).
RU MoD Claim (Apr 4): Liberation of Rozovka (DPR).
NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Apr 5): RU forces ("Vostok" Group) advanced >1.5km depth / 1km front near Bohatyr.
RU Drone Activity/Claims: Captured/damaged French VAB APC and Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle claimed near Kurakhove (Apr 4). Disabled US MaxxPro MRAP claimed near Bohatyr (Apr 5). Ongoing UAV operations by 29th Army targeting UA personnel/equipment claimed (Apr 5).
