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Situation Report

2025-02-12 05:08:29Z
Previous Report (2025-02-12 04:38:26Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 05:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (04:38 UTC - 05:08 UTC, February 12)

Kyiv Missile Attack Aftermath (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING)

  • Casualty Updates (CONFLICTING REPORTS):
    • RBC-Ukraine (04:22 UTC) and Tsaplienko (04:38 UTC) report one death (Obolonskyi District) and one injury.
    • ASTRA (04:37 UTC) reports three deaths and four injuries, including a 9-year-old girl, across Obolonskyi, Podilskyi, and Darnytskyi districts. This discrepancy requires urgent clarification. The location discrepancies are also notable.
  • Damage Reports (CONSISTENT, DETAILED PHOTOS):
    • Obolonskyi District: Destruction in two office buildings, one with a fire (now extinguished). (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, Sever.Realii, all 04:22-04:41 UTC).
    • Holosiivskyi District: Fire in a two-story warehouse building. Firefighting ongoing. (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, 04:22-04:38 UTC).
    • Sviatoshynskyi District: Fire on the roof of an apartment building (extinguished). (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, 04:22-04:38 UTC).
    • Solomensky: Fire on the roof of an apartment building (Sever.Realii)
    • Kyiv Oblast (Obukhivskyi and Boryspilskyi Districts) (RBC Ukraine, 04:47): Non-residential building fire in Obukhivskyi. Damage to 9 private houses and a car in Boryspilskyi due to falling debris. No casualties reported in Kyiv Oblast.
  • Power Outages (CONFIRMED): Several districts in Kyiv are experiencing power outages following the explosions. (RBC-Ukraine, 04:39 UTC, TASS 04:51 UTC).
  • Attack Type (MIXED): Kyiv Oblast Military Administration reports both drone and missile attacks on Kyiv Oblast. (RBC-Ukraine, 04:47 UTC).

Russian Military Activity (RUSSIAN SOURCES, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

  • FPV Drone Strikes (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
    • "Dnevnik Desantnika" (05:02 UTC) claims destruction of two US-supplied M1117 armored personnel carriers in the Kharkiv direction. This is a new and significant claim if confirmed.
    • "Voin DV"(05:00) reports the destruction of enemy communications and the use of the drones in the area.
  • Historical Remembrance:
    • A post to commemorate the ZiS-3. (04:42)

Naval Activity (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES)

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian warship, carrying up to 4 "Kalibr" missiles. (RBC-Ukraine, 04:41 UTC, confirming earlier General Staff report).
  • Azov Sea: No Russian warships. (RBC-Ukraine, 04:41 UTC, confirming earlier General Staff report).
  • Mediterranean Sea: Not updated in the latest reports, but previous reports (04:26 UTC) indicated 3 Russian warships, 2 carrying up to 22 "Kalibr" missiles.

Other Developments

  • Trump Envoy Visit (CONFIRMED, TASS): Donald Trump described the agreement with Russia for the return of Mark Fogel as "very fair and reasonable" and stated that "someone else" would be released on February 12. (TASS, 04:46 UTC). This confirms the exchange and suggests further developments are imminent.
  • German Naval Plans:
  • Dva Mayora reports about German's plan to use uncrewed ships. (04:58)

Updated Situation Summary

  • KYIV ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY): Conflicting casualty reports require urgent clarification. Confirmed damage across multiple districts, including power outages. Confirmed mixed drone and missile attack on Kyiv Oblast.
  • RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): New claim of destroying two US-supplied M1117 APCs with FPV drones in the Kharkiv direction.
  • NAVAL THREAT (CONFIRMED): Russian missile carrier remains in the Black Sea. Mediterranean threat unchanged.
  • TRUMP ENVOY VISIT (CONFIRMED): Further releases are expected, increasing the urgency of determining the full context of the agreement.

Updated Recommendations

  1. CLARIFY KYIV CASUALTY FIGURES (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Immediately reconcile the conflicting reports from RBC-Ukraine/Tsaplienko and ASTRA. Determine the accurate number and location of casualties.
    • Prioritize medical care and support for the injured.
    • Continue comprehensive damage assessment and address power outages.

  2. VERIFY M1117 DESTRUCTION CLAIM (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Urgently verify the "Dnevnik Desantnika" claim of destroying two US-supplied M1117 APCs in the Kharkiv direction. Use all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, HUMINT, SIGINT).
    • If confirmed, assess the implications for Ukrainian armored capabilities in the Kharkiv region.
    • Determine the location, circumstances, and time of the alleged attack to understand Russian FPV drone capabilities and tactics.

  3. INVESTIGATE TRUMP ENVOY VISIT (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Identify who will be released on February 12 and the terms of their release.
    • Determine the full context of the exchange, including what Russia received in return for Fogel's release and the potential release of others.
    • Analyze any potential link between the timing of the visit, the releases, and the Kyiv missile attack.

  4. CONTINUE MONITORING NAVAL ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Track the Russian missile carrier in the Black Sea.
    • Maintain high alert for potential missile launches.
    • Monitor the Mediterranean situation, although no new updates were provided.

  5. ADDRESS INTERNAL RUSSIAN ISSUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Unchanged from the previous report.

  6. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus is on clarifying the Kyiv casualty figures, verifying the M1117 destruction claim, and urgently investigating the expanding implications of the Trump envoy visit.

Previous Report (2025-02-12 04:38:26Z)