Nightwatch logo'Nightwatch' text with white and gray lettersKnowledge is Power

Situation Report

2025-02-12 04:38:26Z
Previous Report (2025-02-12 04:08:29Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (04:08 UTC - 04:38 UTC, February 12)

Kyiv Missile Attack Aftermath (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING)

  • Casualty Updates (CONFIRMED):
    • One Confirmed Death (Obolonskyi District).
    • Three Injured (Obolonskyi District): Two hospitalized, one received on-site medical assistance.
    • One Injured (Podilskyi District): Hospitalized.
    • 9-Year-Old Girl Injured (Obolonskyi District): Hospitalized.
  • Damage Reports (CONFIRMED, DETAILED PHOTOS):
    • Obolonskyi District: Destruction in two office buildings, one with a fire (now extinguished). One death, one injured. (RBK-Ukraina, 04:22 UTC). The photos confirm significant structural damage.
    • Holosiivskyi District: Fire in a two-story warehouse building. Firefighting ongoing. (RBK-Ukraina, 04:22 UTC, TASS 04:11 UTC).
    • Sviatoshynskyi District: Fire on the roof of an apartment building (extinguished). (RBK-Ukraina, 04:22 UTC).
    • "Dva Mayora"(04:05 UTC) claims at least 15 ballistic strikes hit Kyiv.

Russian Military Activity (RUSSIAN SOURCES, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

  • Kursk Region ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Claims of Ukrainian attempted recovery of bodies, Russian UAV attacks, Russian advances.
  • Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) Outskirts ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Fighting reported.
  • Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Claims of Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian advances.
  • Konstantinopolskoye Direction ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Claims of fighting, Russian successes.
  • Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Claims of Russian advance.
  • Belgorod Region("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC, CONFIRMED by Russian MoD, 04:18 UTC and ASTRA 04:31 UTC): 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down.
  • DPR ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Three civilians in Gorlovka were wounded.
  • Chasov Yar ("Dnevnik Desantnika", 04:06 UTC): Russian paratroopers report destroying Ukrainian mortar.
  • Nikolaevo-Daryino, Kursk Oblast (TASS, 04:22 UTC): Ukrainian military actions resulted in the death of all but one man.

Naval Activity (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF, 04:26 UTC)

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian warship, carrying up to 4 "Kalibr" missiles.
  • Azov Sea: No Russian warships.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships, 2 carrying up to 22 "Kalibr" missiles.
  • Kerch Strait: Russian ship movements, violating SOLAS regulations.

Other Developments

  • Mark Fogel Release (CONFIRMED): The release of Mark Fogel is confirmed.
  • "Soyuzmultfilm" Lawsuit (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES): "Soyuzmultfilm" is suing volunteers making Cheburashka toys for soldiers. (Operatsiya Z, 04:09 UTC). This creates a negative narrative within Russia.
  • Cryptocurrency Scam in Khabarovsk (REPORTED): A new report about people losing money from crypto investments.

Updated Situation Summary

  • KYIV ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed death, multiple injuries, and significant structural damage across several districts, confirmed by photos. Firefighting continues in the Holosiivskyi district.
  • RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports from Russian sources claim advances. Confirmed UAV interception over Belgorod. TASS reports near-total male casualties in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Kursk.
  • NAVAL THREAT (CONFIRMED): Russian missile carriers in the Black and Mediterranean Seas pose a continuing threat.
  • INTERNAL RUSSIAN ISSUES: The "Soyuzmultfilm" lawsuit highlights potential internal dissent and negative public perception.

Updated Recommendations

  1. KYIV DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Continue comprehensive damage assessment, with a focus on photographic and video evidence of structural damage.
    • Prioritize firefighting in the Holosiivskyi district.
    • Confirm and report the final casualty figures, providing ongoing medical care and support to the injured.
    • Maintain vigilance for any potential further attacks or secondary incidents.
    • Gather and preserve evidence of the attack for potential investigations and accountability efforts.

  2. VERIFY RUSSIAN MILITARY CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Utilize independent intelligence sources (satellite imagery, HUMINT, SIGINT) to verify:
    • Kursk, Dzerzhinsk, Pokrovsk, Konstantinopolskoye, Velikaya Novoselka.
    • Especially prioritize verifying the TASS report of near-total male casualties in Nikolaevo-Daryino. This could indicate a war crime.

  3. CONTINUE INVESTIGATION OF TRUMP ENVOY VISIT (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Determine the full context of the exchange and what Russia received in return for Fogel's release.
    • Analyze any potential link between the timing of the visit, the release, and the Kyiv missile attack.

  4. MONITOR NAVAL ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Track Russian warships in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, especially the missile carriers.
    • Maintain high alert for potential missile launches.

  5. ADDRESS INTERNAL RUSSIAN ISSUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Monitor the public reaction to the "Soyuzmultfilm" lawsuit. This could be exploited for information operations.

  6. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus remains on the aftermath of the Kyiv missile attack, verifying Russian military claims (especially the TASS report), investigating the Trump connection, and monitoring the naval threat. The emerging "Soyuzmultfilm" controversy could be a point of internal Russian vulnerability.

Previous Report (2025-02-12 04:08:29Z)