Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (03:38 UTC - 04:08 UTC, February 12)

Kyiv Missile Attack Aftermath (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING)

• Casualty Updates (CONFIRMED):
  • One Confirmed Death (Obolonskyi District): Klitschko confirms the death occurred in the Obolonskyi district, not the Podilskyi district as previously reported. (RBK-Ukraina, 03:45 UTC). The information was corrected.
  • Three Injured (Obolonskyi District): Two were hospitalized, and one received on-site medical assistance. (RBK-Ukraina, 04:06 UTC).
  • One Injured (Podilskyi District): One person was hospitalized in the Podilskyi district. (RBK-Ukraina, 03:39 UTC).
  • 9-Year-Old Girl Injured (Obolonskyi District): A 9-year-old girl was hospitalized in the Obolonskyi district. (RBK-Ukraina, 03:51 UTC). This highlights the impact on children.
• Damage Reports (CONFIRMED):
  • Obolonskyi District: Fire in an office building from the 7th to the 1st floor. (RBK-Ukraina, 03:43 UTC; KMVA, 03:43 UTC; Operativnyi ZSU, 03:58 UTC).
  • Holosiivskyi District: Large-scale fire in a warehouse building (600 sq. m). (RBK-Ukraina, 03:43 UTC; KMVA, 03:43 UTC; Operativnyi ZSU, 03:58 UTC).
  • Sviatoshynskyi District: Debris fell, but no casualties were reported. (RBK-Ukraina, 03:43 UTC; KMVA, 03:43 UTC; Operativnyi ZSU, 03:58 UTC).
  • Solomianskyi District: Fire on the roof of an apartment building. (RBK-Ukraina, 03:43 UTC; KMVA, 03:43 UTC; Operativnyi ZSU, 03:58 UTC).
  • "Dva Mayora"(04:05 UTC) claims at least 15 ballistic strikes hit Kyiv.

Russian Military Activity (RUSSIAN SOURCES, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

• Kursk Region ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): The "Sever" group reports that several Ukrainian evacuation groups from the 82nd Airborne Brigade attempted to recover bodies and equipment near Cherkasskaya Konopelka but were destroyed by Russian UAV operators. Claims of Russian success near Sverdlikovo and surrounding areas. Reports of marines repelling 5 counterattacks. Mentions that the Russian army had advanced up to 2km in areas near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Nizhny Klin, Sverdlovka, and Alexandria.
• Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) Outskirts ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Ukrainian forces publish footage of an infantry group, claiming ongoing fighting on the outskirts of the "huge agglomeration."
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Claims of Ukrainian counterattacks near Peschanoye. Reports of Russian advances north of Pokrovsk towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, with fighting near Yelizavetovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, and Baranovka. Fighting south of Pokrovsk near Sribnoye (Serebryanoye).
• Konstantinopolskoye Direction ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Claims of fighting in Andreevka and Russian successes.
• Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Claims of Russian advance northwest of the settlement, with efforts to "level the front line."
• Belgorod Region("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): FPV drones struck commercial and social structures.
• DPR ("Dva Mayora", 03:55 UTC): Three civilians in Gorlovka were wounded by Ukrainian attacks. A UAV attacked a bus.
• Chasov Yar ("Dnevnik Desantnika", 04:06 UTC): Russian paratroopers report destroying Ukrainian mortar.
• Kursk ("Dnevnik Desantnika", 04:06 UTC): Claims of training exercises.
• "Colonelcassad" (04:04 UTC): Showed an image promoting a soldier.

Mark Fogel Release

• Trump Praises Release (CONFIRMED): Former President Trump stated that the US highly values the release of Mark Fogel by Russian authorities. (TASS, 03:47 UTC).
• Fogel Pardoned (CONFIRMED): Mark Fogel reported that he was pardoned by the President of Russia. (TASS, 03:47 UTC).

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed death and multiple injuries, with significant damage across several districts. Focus shifts to damage assessment, casualty reports, and ongoing emergency response. The number and location of casualties have been clarified and updated.
• Intense Fighting reported by Russian forces (Multiple Fronts): Continues with claims of gains in the Kursk region.
• RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports from Russian sources claim advances and Ukrainian counterattacks in various sectors. These claims need independent verification.
• MARK FOGEL RELEASE (CONFIRMED): The release of Mark Fogel is confirmed, with Trump expressing appreciation. This adds a layer of complexity to the potential Trump-Russia connection.

Updated Recommendations

1. KYIV DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains the top priority.

   • Continue comprehensive damage assessment with a focus on clarifying the exact location and extent of damage in each affected district.
   • Confirm and report the final casualty figures, providing ongoing medical care and support to the injured.
   • Continue firefighting and emergency response operations, ensuring all fires are extinguished and damaged infrastructure is secured.
   • Maintain vigilance for any potential further attacks or secondary incidents.
   • Gather and preserve evidence of the attack for potential investigations and accountability efforts.

2. VERIFY RUSSIAN MILITARY CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize independent intelligence sources (satellite imagery, HUMINT, SIGINT) to verify the claims of Russian advances and Ukrainian counterattacks reported by "Dva Mayora" and other Russian sources. Focus on:
     • Kursk Region (Sverdlikovo, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Nizhny Klin, Sverdlovka, Alexandria).
     • Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) outskirts.
     • Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) area (Peschanoye, Yelizavetovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Baranovka, Sribnoye).
     • Konstantinopolskoye direction (Andreevka).
     • Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka area.

3. CONTINUE INVESTIGATION OF TRUMP ENVOY VISIT (HIGH PRIORITY): The release of Mark Fogel adds another element to the potential Trump-Russia connection. Focus on:

   • Determining the full context of the exchange and what Russia received in return for Fogel's release.
   • Analyzing any potential link between the timing of the visit, the release, and the Kyiv missile attack.

4. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus remains on the aftermath of the Kyiv missile attack, verifying Russian military claims, and investigating the evolving situation surrounding the Trump-Russia connection and the release of Mark Fogel.

Previous Report (2025-02-12 03:38:30Z)