Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (January 15, 2025, 07:07 UTC)

Donetsk Region

Toretsk and Kurakhove

• Fall of Toretsk and Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured most of Toretsk and Kurakhove. Ukrainian sources acknowledge the critical situation, with less than 15% of Toretsk under Ukrainian control.

Pokrovsk

• Advance Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk, capturing key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye. They are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements.

Chasiv Yar

• Fire Pocket: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory.

Velyka Novosilka

• Impending Development: A message from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development ("зрада" or betrayal/disaster in Ukrainian) near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and making a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests. Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky. Fighting is ongoing near Zamostye, with Russian forces attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha.
• Disrupted Rotation: Three Ukrainian battalion groups preparing for a night rotation in the Kursk region were disrupted by a Russian missile strike.
• Elite Units Deployed: Ukrainian command is reportedly deploying elite units, including Special Operations Forces, to the Kursk region in an attempt to prevent the encirclement of their forces in the Sudzha area.
• Fundraising for Russian Forces: A fundraising campaign is underway to procure drones for Russian paratroopers operating in the Kursk region. The campaign highlights the difficult conditions and the urgent need for equipment.
• Claimed Ukrainian Losses: Russian sources report significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region since the beginning of hostilities: over 50,840 troops, 296 tanks, 224 IFVs, 161 APCs, 1,521 armored fighting vehicles, 1,445 vehicles, 353 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, and 91 EW stations.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
• Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna, expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attacks in Engels and Kazan: Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities in Engels and Kazan have been confirmed, with the fire at the oil depot in Engels ongoing.
• New Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
• Massive Attack on Tula Oblast Confirmed: 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast.
• Tambov Alcohol Plant Attacked: Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked an alcohol plant in Tambov, Russia, overnight.
• Continued Drone Activity: Drone activity persists across multiple regions in Ukraine, with reports of drones in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Russian FPV Drone Strikes: Videos show Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions.
• Drone Attack on Car Wash in Nova Kakhovka: Three people were injured as a result of a drone attack on a car wash in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region.
• Russian Drone Strike in Kursk Region: Russian forces are reportedly using drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region.
• Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Alcohol Plant: Ukrainian forces claim responsibility for a drone attack on an alcohol plant in Tambov, deep inside Russian territory.

Missile Attacks

• Massive Combined Attack: A massive, combined missile attack is underway, employing X-101/555, X-22, Kalibr, and ballistic missiles.
• Targets: Missiles are targeting numerous regions, including Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr.
• Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems are actively engaging targets. Explosions have been reported in Khmelnytskyi and Vinnytsia regions, with air defenses activated in the Lviv region.
• Strategic Bombers: TU-22M3 and TU-95ms bombers were used to launch the attack.
• Emergency Power Outages: Due to the missile attack, emergency power outages have been implemented in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad.
• Targets in Western Ukraine: Reports of explosions in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions indicate that the western part of Ukraine is now being targeted. The ongoing threat to Stryi further emphasizes the westward expansion of the air attack.
• Ukrainian Infrastructure Targeted: Ukrainian officials report that energy infrastructure in multiple regions, including Lviv, has been targeted by Russian missile attacks.
• Russian Missile Attack Composition: The Ukrainian military provided a detailed breakdown of the types of missiles used in the recent Russian attack, including cruise missiles (Kh-101/55, 3M14 "Kalibr", Kh-22), ballistic missiles (9M723 "Iskander-M"), and guided missiles (Kh-59/69). The attack was preceded by drone launches.
• Continued Attacks on Energy Infrastructure: Russian forces continue to target energy infrastructure across Ukraine, with confirmed strikes in multiple regions. Emergency power outages are reported in Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad regions.

Other Significant Developments

• Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported personnel from the Air Force are being transferred to the infantry.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia.
• Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
• Oil Refinery Strike: Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire. A fire also broke out at a Lukoil oil refinery in the Volgograd region of Russia. While local authorities claim it was caused by internal issues, the incident adds to the list of recent fires at Russian energy facilities.
• Air Alarm: An air alarm is active throughout Ukraine.
• Poland: Poland raised combat aircraft due to a missile attack on Ukraine.
• Fire at Electrical Substation in Kyiv: A fire has broken out at an electrical substation on Khreshchatyk Street in central Kyiv. This incident likely contributes to the ongoing power outages in the city and further strains Kyiv's already burdened energy infrastructure.
• North Korean Missile Test: South Korean military reports that North Korea has launched several suspected short-range ballistic missiles.
• US Political Developments: Allies of US President-elect Donald Trump have submitted a bill to "buy Greenland," titled "Make Greenland Great Again."
• Confirmed Russian Airstrikes in Kursk Region: The new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region.
• Iran's Enhanced Drone Capabilities: The video showcasing Iran's large and diverse drone arsenal, with a reported range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities, is a significant development.
• Video Evidence of Russian Operations in Krasnolimansk Direction: A new video shows Russian forces from the 144th Motorized Rifle Division operating in the Krasnolimansk direction.
• Development of Computerized Fire Control System: The "Kalashnikov" concern has reportedly developed a computerized fire control system with a scope for small arms.
• Resettlement of Ukrainian Citizens in Russia: The Khabarovsk regional police have issued housing certificates to 22 Ukrainian citizens who have arrived in Russia for permanent residence.
• Continued Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drones continue to target Russian territory, with reports of 14 drones being shot down in the Rostov region and another drone being destroyed over Tula Oblast.
• Nighttime "Geranium" Drones over Kharkiv Region: A video shows nighttime "Geranium" drones operating over the Kharkiv region.
• Temporary Flight Restrictions in Multiple Russian Airports: Rosaviatsia reports that temporary restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced at the airports of Kazan, Kaluga, Saratov, and Tambov.
• Distance Learning in Saratov Schools: The governor of Saratov has announced that classes in Saratov schools will be held remotely due to the threat of drone attacks.
• Arrest of South Korean President: The former president of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, has been arrested. This development could potentially impact the geopolitical situation in East Asia.
• Ukrainian Military Aid: Germany has updated its list of military aid provided to Ukraine, including 20 MRAP vehicles, 600 attack drones, and various reconnaissance drones. The list also includes future deliveries of BMP Marder, APCs, MRAPs, and RCH 155 howitzers.
• Casualty Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 170 combat clashes over the past day, with significant enemy losses: 1,580 personnel, 13 tanks, 22 armored fighting vehicles, 52 artillery systems, 2 air defense systems, 107 operational-tactical UAVs, and 204 vehicles.
• Russian Media Report: The Russian publication "Военкор Котенок" reports on a new missile strike targeting military airfields and energy facilities in multiple regions of Ukraine, including Kyiv, Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Kirovohrad. Successful strikes are claimed, particularly on a military facility in Sambir, Lviv region.
• Ukrainian Air Force Report: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the eastern direction, with a threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.
• Alleged Bribery Attempt by Ukrainian Intelligence: The FSB claims that Ukrainian military intelligence offered $1 million to Russian soldiers to abandon their positions near Horlivka. The FSB claims to have thwarted these plans and used the $100,000 advance payment to purchase equipment for Russian units.
• Damage in Kirovohrad Region: Ukrainian authorities report damage to windows of several residential buildings in the Kirovohrad region as a result of a downed drone.
• Daily Minute of Silence in Ukraine: Ukraine holds a daily minute of silence at 9:00 AM to honor those killed in the war.
• Fundraising Campaign for Ukrainian Forces: A fundraising campaign is underway to purchase field cots for several Ukrainian units, including the 109th Brigade, 143rd Brigade, and the 1st Assault Battalion. The goal is to raise 572,000 hryvnias.
• Damage to Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure: Ukrainian authorities confirm that energy infrastructure was targeted in the recent attacks, with emergency power outages implemented in six regions.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted in Most of Ukraine: Air raid alerts have been lifted in most regions of Ukraine, except for Zaporizhzhia.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and dynamic. Russian forces continue their offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, with significant advances reported near Pokrovsk and Sudzha. The capture of key locations in these areas poses a severe challenge to Ukrainian defenses. Intense fighting is ongoing across multiple fronts, with urban warfare reported in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.

A major Russian air campaign employing a combination of missiles and drones is targeting regions across Ukraine, including the western regions of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk. Critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, remains a primary target. The attacks have resulted in widespread emergency power outages and damage to civilian areas.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces claim successful drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, targeting industrial facilities and oil refineries.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in alliances and international support. Reports of a potential meeting between Putin and Trump, the arrest of the former South Korean president, and the US proposal to "buy Greenland" add further layers of complexity to the international situation.

Ukrainian forces continue to resist the Russian advance, reporting successful counterattacks and inflicting significant losses on Russian troops and equipment. However, the overall situation remains challenging, with Russian forces maintaining the initiative in several key areas.

The new messages confirm the continuation and intensification of the conflict, with both sides employing a wide range of military capabilities. The targeting of energy infrastructure, the ongoing drone warfare, and the significant Russian advances in the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the escalating nature of the conflict. The situation requires continuous monitoring and adaptation of strategies to address the evolving threats. The potential for the conflict to widen remains a significant concern.

Previous Report (2025-01-15 06:38:44Z)