Updated Situation Report: Military Operations in Ukraine

Date: January 15, 2025

Time: 06:37 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with significant Russian advances in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, particularly in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and the Sudzha area. A major Russian air campaign employing a combination of missiles and drones is targeting regions across Ukraine, with Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging incoming threats. The situation is marked by ongoing urban warfare, extensive drone activity, and widespread missile strikes, posing a significant challenge to Ukrainian defenses.

Major Updates

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Toretsk and Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured most of Toretsk and Kurakhove. Ukrainian sources acknowledge the critical situation, with less than 15% of Toretsk under Ukrainian control.
• Advance Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk, capturing key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye. They are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements.
• Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory.
• Velyka Novosilka: Ukrainian forces report repelling an assault near Velyka Novosilka. A message from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development ("зрада" or betrayal/disaster in Ukrainian) near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and making a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests. Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky. Fighting is ongoing near Zamostye, with Russian forces attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha.
• Disrupting Ukrainian Rotation: Three Ukrainian battalion groups preparing for a night rotation in the Kursk region were disrupted by a Russian missile strike.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
• Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna, expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attacks in Engels and Kazan: Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities in Engels and Kazan have been confirmed, with the fire at the oil depot in Engels ongoing.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
• Massive Drone Attack on Tula Oblast Confirmed: 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.

Missile Attacks

• Massive Combined Attack: A massive, combined missile attack is underway, employing X-101/555, X-22, Kalibr, and ballistic missiles.
• Targets: Missiles are targeting numerous regions, including Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr.
• Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems are actively engaging targets. Explosions have been reported in Khmelnytskyi and Vinnytsia regions, with air defenses activated in the Lviv region.
• Strategic Bombers: TU-22M3 and TU-95ms bombers were used to launch the attack.
• Emergency Power Outages: Due to the missile attack, emergency power outages have been implemented in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad.

Other Significant Developments

• Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported personnel from the Air Force are being transferred to the infantry.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia.
• Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
• Oil Refinery Strike: Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
• Air Alarm: An air alarm is active throughout Ukraine.
• Poland: Poland raised combat aircraft due to a missile attack on Ukraine.

Analysis of New Messages

The new messages confirm the continuation and intensification of the Russian missile and drone campaign against Ukraine. The landing of TU-22M3 bombers at Engels and Dyagilevo airbases suggests the completion of their mission in the current wave of strikes. The reports of explosions in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, along with the activation of air defenses, indicate that the western part of Ukraine is now being targeted. The ongoing threat to Stryi further emphasizes the westward expansion of the air attack. The activation of air defenses in multiple regions, including Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, confirms the widespread nature of the Russian missile attack. The reported absence of strikes in Ivano-Frankivsk city, despite air defense activity in the region, suggests that Ukrainian forces are successfully intercepting some of the incoming missiles.

New Developments from Recent Messages

• Fire at Electrical Substation in Kyiv: A fire has broken out at an electrical substation on Khreshchatyk Street in central Kyiv. Emergency services are on-site, and a DTEK (power company) brigade is expected to arrive to assist with extinguishing the fire. This incident likely contributes to the ongoing power outages in the city and further strains Kyiv's already burdened energy infrastructure. This event adds another layer to the ongoing energy infrastructure attacks, and given the location in central Kyiv, close to the office of the President of Ukraine, it will likely draw significant attention.
• Drone Attack on Tambov Alcohol Plant: Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked an alcohol plant in Tambov overnight. This attack, if confirmed, represents another instance of Ukrainian forces targeting industrial facilities deep inside Russian territory.
• Continued Reports of Drone Activity in Multiple Regions: Drone activity persists across multiple regions in Ukraine, with reports of drones in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Russian FPV Drone Strikes: Videos from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel show Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions.
• North Korean Missile Test: South Korean military reports that North Korea has launched several suspected short-range ballistic missiles.
• US Political Developments: Allies of US President-elect Donald Trump have submitted a bill to "buy Greenland," titled "Make Greenland Great Again."
• Confirmed Russian Airstrikes in Kursk Region: The new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region.
• Potential for Major Developments near Velyka Novoselka: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development near Velyka Novoselka.
• Iran's Enhanced Drone Capabilities: The video showcasing Iran's large and diverse drone arsenal, with a reported range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities, is a significant development.
• Video Evidence of Russian Operations in Krasnolimansk Direction: A new video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows Russian forces from the 144th Motorized Rifle Division operating in the Krasnolimansk direction.
• Development of Computerized Fire Control System: The "Kalashnikov" concern has reportedly developed a computerized fire control system with a scope for small arms.
• Resettlement of Ukrainian Citizens in Russia: The Khabarovsk regional police have issued housing certificates to 22 Ukrainian citizens who have arrived in Russia for permanent residence.
• Continued Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drones continue to target Russian territory, with reports of 14 drones being shot down in the Rostov region and another drone being destroyed over Tula Oblast.
• Nighttime "Geranium" Drones over Kharkiv Region: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows nighttime "Geranium" drones operating over the Kharkiv region.
• Temporary Flight Restrictions in Multiple Russian Airports: Rosaviatsia reports that temporary restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced at the airports of Kazan, Kaluga, Saratov, and Tambov.
• Distance Learning in Saratov Schools: The governor of Saratov has announced that classes in Saratov schools will be held remotely due to the threat of drone attacks.
• Drone Attack on Car Wash in Nova Kakhovka: Three people were injured as a result of a drone attack on a car wash in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, according to the head of the city, Vitaly Gura. This indicates that Ukrainian forces are continuing to target areas under Russian occupation.
• Russian Drone Strike in Kursk Region: Russian forces, specifically operators of the 35th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the 35th Army of the "East" group, are reportedly using drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region. This confirms ongoing drone warfare in the area.
• Arrest of South Korean President: The former president of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, has been arrested. This development could potentially impact the geopolitical situation in East Asia.
• Fire at Lukoil Refinery in Volgograd: A fire broke out at a Lukoil oil refinery in the Volgograd region of Russia. While local authorities claim it was caused by internal issues, the incident adds to the list of recent fires at Russian energy facilities.

Conclusion

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a significant escalation in Russian offensive operations and a major air campaign targeting multiple regions. The capture of key locations in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, coupled with the intensification of drone warfare and widespread missile strikes, poses a severe challenge to Ukrainian defenses. The ongoing missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure across the country, including the western regions, demonstrate Russia's intent to degrade Ukraine's capabilities and disrupt civilian life. The fire at the electrical substation in Kyiv further exacerbates the energy situation. The situation remains highly dynamic and requires continuous monitoring and adaptation. The attack on the alcohol plant in Tambov, if confirmed, signifies Ukraine's continued ability to strike targets deep inside Russia. The drone activity in multiple regions of Ukraine indicates the persistent threat of air attacks. The confirmed Russian airstrikes in the Kursk region and the use of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv region indicate continued Russian air activity. The report on Iran's enhanced drone capabilities raises concerns about a potential increase in regional tensions and the possibility of these drones being supplied to Russia. The arrest of the former South Korean president and the potential US move to "buy Greenland" add further complexity to the international situation. The continued drone attacks on Russian territory, the fire at the Lukoil refinery, and the temporary flight restrictions at Russian airports all point to an escalation in the conflict and a widening of the battle space. The confirmed drone attack on the car wash in Nova Kakhovka and the reported Russian drone strikes in the Kursk region highlight the ongoing fighting in occupied territories and along the border.

Previous Report (2025-01-15 06:08:03Z)