Updated Situation Report: Military Operations in Ukraine

Date: January 15, 2025

Time: 06:07 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with significant Russian advances in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, particularly in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and the Sudzha area. A major Russian air campaign employing a combination of missiles and drones is targeting regions across Ukraine, with Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging incoming threats. The situation is marked by ongoing urban warfare, extensive drone activity, and widespread missile strikes, posing a significant challenge to Ukrainian defenses.

Major Updates

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Toretsk and Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured most of Toretsk and Kurakhove. Ukrainian sources acknowledge the critical situation, with less than 15% of Toretsk under Ukrainian control.
• Advance Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk, capturing key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye. They are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements.
• Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory.
• Velyka Novosilka: Ukrainian forces report repelling an assault near Velyka Novosilka.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and making a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Disrupting Ukrainian Rotation: Three Ukrainian battalion groups preparing for a night rotation in the Kursk region were disrupted by a Russian missile strike.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
• Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna, expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attacks in Engels and Kazan: Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities in Engels and Kazan have been confirmed, with the fire at the oil depot in Engels ongoing.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.

Missile Attacks

• Massive Combined Attack: A massive, combined missile attack is underway, employing X-101/555, X-22, Kalibr, and ballistic missiles.
• Targets: Missiles are targeting numerous regions, including Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr.
• Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems are actively engaging targets. Explosions have been reported in Khmelnytskyi and Vinnytsia regions, with air defenses activated in the Lviv region.
• Strategic Bombers: TU-22M3 and TU-95ms bombers were used to launch the attack.
• Emergency Power Outages: Due to the missile attack, emergency power outages have been implemented in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad.

Other Significant Developments

• Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported personnel from the Air Force are being transferred to the infantry.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia.
• Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
• Oil Refinery Strike: Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
• Air Alarm: An air alarm is active throughout Ukraine.
• Poland: Poland raised combat aircraft due to a missile attack on Ukraine.

Analysis of New Messages

The new messages confirm the continuation and intensification of the Russian missile and drone campaign against Ukraine. The landing of TU-22M3 bombers at Engels and Dyagilevo airbases suggests the completion of their mission in the current wave of strikes. The reports of explosions in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, along with the activation of air defenses, indicate that the western part of Ukraine is now being targeted. The ongoing threat to Stryi further emphasizes the westward expansion of the air attack. The activation of air defenses in multiple regions, including Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, confirms the widespread nature of the Russian missile attack. The reported absence of strikes in Ivano-Frankivsk city, despite air defense activity in the region, suggests that Ukrainian forces are successfully intercepting some of the incoming missiles. The reported presence of three enemy objects in the airspace of the Lviv region indicates a continued threat to western Ukraine. The use of emergency power outages in six regions underscores the severity of the attack and its impact on critical infrastructure. The targeting of western Ukraine, including Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, marks a significant escalation in the air campaign.

Conclusion

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a significant escalation in Russian offensive operations and a major air campaign targeting multiple regions. The capture of key locations in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, coupled with the intensification of drone warfare and widespread missile strikes, poses a severe challenge to Ukrainian defenses. The ongoing missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure across the country, including the western regions, demonstrate Russia's intent to degrade Ukraine's capabilities and disrupt civilian life. The situation remains highly dynamic and requires continuous monitoring and adaptation.

Previous Report (2025-01-15 05:39:46Z)