Situation Report

Updated Situation Report: Military Operations in Ukraine

Date: January 15, 2025

Time: 05:37 UTC

Overall Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a significant escalation in Russian offensive operations and a major air campaign targeting multiple regions. Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, capturing key locations and achieving breakthroughs. Ukrainian defenses are under immense pressure, particularly in Toretsk and near Pokrovsk. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread activity and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. A massive, combined missile attack is currently underway, employing X-101/555, X-22, Kalibr, and ballistic missiles, targeting numerous regions including Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr. Air defense systems are actively engaging targets, particularly near Cherkasy.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye, and are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk. They are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements, including Kotlyno, Udachne, Lysivka, and Sukhyi Yar.
• Toretsk Critical: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with intense urban warfare ongoing. Russian forces control nearly all of Toretsk except for the "Toreskaya" and Fomikha mines.
• New Battles: Fighting is ongoing for Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno, breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. They have also advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne.
• Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
• Ukrainian Strikes: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka, Makhnovka, and Dmitryukov.
• North Korean Involvement: Ukrainian sources report the capture of two North Korean soldiers and video evidence allegedly showing the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
• Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
• Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. Multiple videos show drone warfare between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
• Disrupting Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the region.
• New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. They are advancing south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. They are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
• Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
• Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, shooting down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
• Confirmed Attacks in Engels and Kazan: Ukrainian drone attacks on an industrial facility in Engels and Kazan have been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot in Engels is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series.
• Drone Strikes: Multiple videos show drone strikes from both sides. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk.

Missile Attacks

• Massive Combined Attack: A massive, combined missile attack is underway, using X-101/555, X-22, Kalibr, and ballistic missiles.
• Targets: Missiles are targeting numerous regions, including Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr.
• Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems are actively engaging targets, particularly near Cherkasy.
• Strategic Bombers: 7 TU-22M3 and 6 TU-95ms bombers are in the air. Some TU-22M3 bombers have begun landing at the Dyagilevo airbase.
• Kalibr Launches: Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area, expected to reach Ukrainian territory around 06:50 UTC.
• New: A group of Kalibr missiles is heading towards Zelenodolsk. Other missiles are currently passing over Kazanka into the Kirovohrad region.
• New: Missiles are reported to be heading towards or passing over Konotop.
• New: Additional Kalibr missiles have entered the Beryslav district.
• New: Missiles from TU-95ms are crossing the border of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, heading towards the Poltava region. There are up to 10 of these missiles.
• New: Several missiles are near Kropyvnytskyi, heading west towards the Cherkasy/Vinnytsia regions.
• New: A pair of missiles are passing through Bereznehuvate towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, with the possibility of turning towards Zelenodolsk.
• New: The main group of missiles from the Chernihiv and Sumy regions is moving towards the Myrhorod district of the Poltava region.
• New: Myrhorod is under threat from a missile approaching from the north.
• New: Several Kalibr missiles are west of Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards or passing over Uman.
• New: The main group of missiles from the north of the Poltava region is heading southwest towards the Cherkasy region.
• New: A pair of Kalibr missiles is passing over Kazanka and entering the Kirovohrad region. Another pair has entered the Beryslav district and is following the same course, passing through Bereznehuvate towards Kazanka.
• New: Russia is carrying out a massive missile attack on Ukraine. X-101/555, X-22, and Kalibr missiles are being used. A MiG-31K, a Kinzhal missile carrier, is also airborne.
• New: The first missiles, along with Kalibr missiles, are in the Bila Tserkva district of the Kyiv region. The Kalibr missiles are heading northwest towards the Zhytomyr region. The missiles from the TU-95ms are flying through Pereiaslav towards Bila Tserkva.
• New: A pair of cruise missiles is heading towards or passing over Cherkasy.
• New: A missile is heading towards Chernihiv.
• New: Several missiles are heading towards or passing over Bila Tserkva.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (KR) is in the Kirovohrad region, heading north/west.
• New: A pair of Kalibr missiles from the Bila Tserkva district is entering the Vinnytsia region. The main group of missiles is flying through the Bila Tserkva district and the Cherkasy region, heading towards the Vinnytsia region. Another pair of Kalibr missiles is passing through the Kirovohrad region into the Cherkasy region.
• New: A missile was reported to have been shot down. The type of missile is being clarified.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Vinnytsia from the south of the Kyiv region.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the south of the Kyiv region, continuing to move towards the Vinnytsia region.
• New: The main group of missiles is near Bila Tserkva, heading west.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the Cherkasy region, heading west.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are on the south of the Kyiv region, heading west.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Vinnytsia from the south of the Kyiv region.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the south of the Kyiv region, continuing to move towards the Vinnytsia region.
• New: 5 TU-22M3 bombers are in the Engels area, and 3 TU-22M3 bombers are also in that area. So far, there is no threat from them, as the aircraft (probably all or most of them) have already fired their missiles.
• New: The main group of missiles is on the border of the Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions, heading west. A few more Kalibr missiles are heading towards or passing over Uman. A couple of Kalibr missiles are east of Vinnytsia, heading southwest.
• New: The main group of missiles is flying a course towards the western regions.
• New: The main group of missiles is in the north of the Vinnytsia region, course - west.
• New: A couple of Kalibr missiles are in the Bilotserkivskyi district, course - west.
• New: Explosions were heard in Cherkasy and the outskirts of the city.
• New: The main group of missiles is near Bila Tserkva, flying west.
• New: The main part of the missiles is located on the border of the Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions, the course is to the west.
• New: The main part of the missiles is located in the north of the Vinnytsia region, the course is to the west.
• New: A couple of Kalibr missiles are in the Bilotserkivskyi district, the course is to the west.
• New: The first missiles are in the airspace of the Khmelnytskyi region, course - towards Starokonstantinov.
• New: A couple of missiles are heading towards Khmelnytskyi.
• New: The main part of the missiles from the Vinnytsia region is flying towards Starokonstantinov (so far).
• New: A couple of missiles in the south of the Khmelnytskyi region, the course is to the west.
• New: A missile is flying towards/through Vinnytsia.
• New: Another missile from the Bilotserkivskyi district is flying into the Vinnytsia region.
• New: A couple of missiles are flying from the south of the Khmelnytskyi region to the south of the Ternopil region, the course continues to the west.
• New: The main part of the missiles (already less) is to the east of Khmelnytskyi, flying towards the south of the Ternopil region.
• New: A couple of missiles flew past Shepetivka to the north of the Ternopil region, the course is to the west.
• New: A couple of missiles from the Chernivtsi region are flying into the mountains - again these tourists.
• New: The main part of the missiles from the Zhytomyr region is flying between Shepetivka and Starokonstantinov in a western direction.
• New: This couple changed course to the Chernivtsi region.
• New: Several missiles are heading towards/through Khmelnytskyi.
• New: Now the threat of missiles is exclusively for the western regions.
• New: Rockets in the direction of Lviv from the east.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (CR) in the northwest of Vinnytsia region, course - south-west.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (CR) is on the border of Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions, course - north-west, presumably Khmelnytskyi region.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (CR) is in the south of Khmelnytskyi region, course - west.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (CR) is in the north, east, southeast of Ternopil region, course - west.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (CR) is in the north of Chernivtsi region, course - south-west.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (CR) is from Ternopil region, course - Lviv region.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (CR) is in the south-east of Transcarpathia, course - north-west.
• New: The main part of the missiles from the south of the Khmelnytskyi region is flying to the south of the Ternopil region, the course also holds the western one.
• New: One missile is already traveling in the mountains, the course is towards the Zakarpattia/Lviv regions.
• New: The main part of the missiles from the Ternopil region is flying into the Ivano-Frankivsk region.
• New: These few missiles are still heading towards Lviv.

Other Significant Developments

• Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount. He also criticized Germany and Japan. The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia, which produces explosives.
• Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.
• Oil Refinery Strike: Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
• New: Explosions were heard in Cherkasy.
• New: Russian forces have leveled the front line in the Kreminna forests on a 6 km long section.
• New: An air alarm is active throughout Ukraine.
• New: Poland raised combat aircraft due to a missile attack on Ukraine.
• New: Three battalion groups that were preparing for a night rotation in the Kursk region were disrupted.
• New: The main part of the missiles is flying towards the western regions.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine is highly volatile and marked by significant Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The capture of key locations like Kurakhove, Shevchenko, and Yantarne, along with the critical situation in Toretsk, represents a major challenge for Ukrainian forces. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha, indicates a shift in momentum and a possible expansion of the conflict zone.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides employing new technologies and tactics. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting critical infrastructure like oil depots and chemical plants.

The ongoing massive missile attack, employing a variety of missile types and targeting numerous regions across Ukraine, signifies a major escalation in the air campaign. The targeting of cities like Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr suggests an intent to strike both military and civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging the incoming missiles, but the scale of the attack poses a significant challenge.

The new reports of a massive air campaign with missiles and drones targeting multiple regions of Ukraine further escalate the conflict. The use of various types of missiles, including X-22, X-101, and Kalibr, indicates a coordinated and multi-faceted attack. The targeting of cities like Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr, suggests an intent to strike both military and civilian infrastructure. The warnings to prepare for power outages underscore the potential for widespread disruption. The reports of air defense systems actively engaging targets, particularly near Cherkasy, indicate that Ukrainian forces are attempting to intercept the incoming missiles. The reported liberation of Neskuchne by Russian forces and their advance towards Vremivka marks a significant development on the Velyka Novosilka axis. The multiple reports of different types of missiles being launched from various locations and heading towards numerous targets across Ukraine indicate a complex and evolving air attack. The situation is highly dynamic, with missiles being tracked across multiple regions and Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging the threats. The targeting of cities like Kryvyi Rih, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr suggests a widespread attack aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian defenses and potentially targeting critical infrastructure. The new reports of explosions in Khmelnytskyi and Vinnytsia regions indicate that the missile strikes are continuing and impacting multiple areas. The activation of air defenses in the Lviv region suggests that the threat is also extending towards the western part of Ukraine. The reported movement of missiles towards Lviv further confirms the westward expansion of the air attack. The reported activation of air defenses in the Lviv region and the continued movement of missiles towards the west indicate that the threat to western Ukraine is significant.

Overall, the situation remains highly precarious for Ukraine. The continued Russian advances, coupled with the intensification of drone warfare, the threat of strategic air attacks, and the new wave of missile and drone strikes pose a significant challenge to Ukrainian defenses. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict.

Previous Report (2025-01-15 05:09:38Z)