Updated Situation Report: Military Operations in Ukraine

Date: January 15, 2025

Time: 05:07 UTC

Overall Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by a significant escalation in Russian offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have made substantial gains, capturing key locations like Kurakhove, Toretsk, Shevchenko, and Yantarne. They are pushing towards Pokrovsk and have effectively cut the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, a crucial supply route. In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have launched a renewed offensive, achieving a 10-kilometer breakthrough and capturing several settlements. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with reports of widespread drone activity and new technologies being employed, including fiber-optic-connected drones. The current situation is characterized by a major Russian air campaign, with reports of missile and drone attacks across multiple regions of Ukraine. A massive, combined missile attack is currently underway, targeting numerous regions with X-101/555, X-22, and Kalibr missiles, as well as ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region. There are reports of air defense systems actively engaging targets, particularly near Cherkasy.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove and Toretsk: Russian forces have captured most of Kurakhove and Toretsk, with Ukrainian control in Toretsk reduced to less than 15%. Pro-Russian sources claim near-total control of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
• Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka Highway Cut: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk and have cut the highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka. One of the routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has also been cut.
• Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne, and Russian forces claim to have captured Peschanoye.
• Other Advances: Russian gains are reported near several other settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
• Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling approximately 20% of its territory.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing, with Russian forces clearing Novovasylivka and fighting for Uspenivka.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting, reporting the repulsion of assaults and claiming to have destroyed Russian equipment.
• Airspace Closure: The highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed due to Ukrainian attacks.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: A ballistic missile threat was reported in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Russian forces have reportedly completed the clearing of Zelenoe, south of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the Sudzha border region.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
• 10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, advancing up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
• Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
• Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day and over 50,000 since the beginning of hostilities, according to Russian sources.
• Western analysts report that Russian forces have regained control of two-thirds of the territory previously held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. The current area under Ukrainian control is estimated to be no more than 443 km², down from a peak of over 1200 km².
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost 90 EW stations in the Kursk region since the beginning of hostilities.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
• Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are making progress in Ivanovka and are attempting to capture heights near Terny. They are also storming Zahryzove.
• Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
• Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The oil depot has been burning for 5 days.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
• New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
• 40 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed by air defense forces in the Kursk region overnight.
• Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
• Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
• 16 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed by air defense forces in the Rostov region overnight.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
• Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv and other regions due to the threat of drone and missile attacks.
• Two Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over the Belgorod region, and one over the Tambov region.
• Russian forces report shooting down two Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Tambov region.
• Serial production of the "Knyaz Vandal" drone with a thermal imager has reportedly been launched in Russia.
• Explosions were heard in Kharkiv, likely outside the city.
• Power outages are likely to occur.
• Air raid alert is active across all of Ukraine.
• 7 TU-22M3 and 6 TU-95ms bombers are in the air. X-22 missiles are flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region. There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions.
• Some TU-22M3 bombers have begun landing at the Dyagilevo airbase.
• There is an increased threat to Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Cherkasy oblasts.
• Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area, expected to reach Ukrainian territory around 06:50 UTC.

Missile Attacks

• The Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in areas where an air raid alert has been declared.
• A missile was reported in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, moving northwest.
• Missiles from the Belgorod region are heading towards Kharkiv.
• Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
• Enemy bombers are approaching the launch lines.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
• A high-speed target is reported in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction.
• There is a threat of ballistic missiles from the Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
• A high-speed target is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving southwest.
• A group of missiles is reported in the Sumy region, moving southwest.
• Pryluki is under threat.
• Ballistic missiles are reported to be heading towards Pryluki.
• X-101 missiles are reported in the north.
• A missile is reported to be heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
• Several Kalibr missiles are flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, likely further into the Kirovohrad region.
• Missiles are flying from the temporarily occupied territories in the Kherson region towards the northwest.
• Several Kalibr missiles are flying through the Beryslav district towards the Mykolaiv region, likely in the direction of Novyi Buh/Kazanka and further into the Kirovohrad region.
• A group of missiles is heading from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv region.
• A group of missiles is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving south.
• Cruise missiles have been reported via Shostka towards Konotop, likely from Tu-95ms.
• A cruise missile (KR) is reported from the north of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
• New: A group of Kalibr missiles is heading towards Zelenodolsk. The group is also being targeted.
• New: Other missiles are currently passing over Kazanka into the Kirovohrad region.
• New: Missiles are reported to be heading towards or passing over Konotop.
• New: Additional Kalibr missiles have entered the Beryslav district, moving towards Bereznehuvate.
• New: Missiles from TU-95ms are crossing the border of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, heading towards the Poltava region. There are up to 10 of these missiles.
• New: Several missiles are near Kropyvnytskyi, heading west towards the Cherkasy/Vinnytsia regions.
• New: A pair of missiles are passing through Bereznehuvate towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, with the possibility of turning towards Zelenodolsk.
• New: The main group of missiles from the Chernihiv and Sumy regions is moving towards the Myrhorod district of the Poltava region.
• New: Myrhorod is under threat from a missile approaching from the north.
• New: Several Kalibr missiles are west of Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards or passing over Uman.
• New: The main group of missiles from the north of the Poltava region is heading southwest towards the Cherkasy region.
• New: A pair of Kalibr missiles is passing over Kazanka and entering the Kirovohrad region. Another pair has entered the Beryslav district and is following the same course, passing through Bereznehuvate towards Kazanka.
• New: Russia is carrying out a massive missile attack on Ukraine. X-101/555, X-22, and Kalibr missiles are being used. A MiG-31K, a Kinzhal missile carrier, is also airborne.
• New: The first missiles, along with Kalibr missiles, are in the Bila Tserkva district of the Kyiv region. The Kalibr missiles are heading northwest towards the Zhytomyr region. The missiles from the TU-95ms are flying through Pereiaslav towards Bila Tserkva.
• New: A pair of cruise missiles is heading towards or passing over Cherkasy.
• New: A missile is heading towards Chernihiv.
• New: Several missiles are heading towards or passing over Bila Tserkva.
• New: A group of cruise missiles (KR) is in the Kirovohrad region, heading north/west.
• New: A pair of Kalibr missiles from the Bila Tserkva district is entering the Vinnytsia region. The main group of missiles is flying through the Bila Tserkva district and the Cherkasy region, heading towards the Vinnytsia region. Another pair of Kalibr missiles is passing through the Kirovohrad region into the Cherkasy region.
• New: A missile was reported to have been shot down. The type of missile is being clarified.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Vinnytsia from the south of the Kyiv region.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the south of the Kyiv region, continuing to move towards the Vinnytsia region.
• New: The main group of missiles is near Bila Tserkva, heading west.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the Cherkasy region, heading west.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are on the south of the Kyiv region, heading west.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Vinnytsia from the south of the Kyiv region.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast.
• New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the south of the Kyiv region, continuing to move towards the Vinnytsia region.
• New: 5 TU-22M3 bombers are in the Engels area, and 3 TU-22M3 bombers are also in that area. So far, there is no threat from them, as the aircraft (probably all or most of them) have already fired their missiles.
• New: The main group of missiles is on the border of the Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions, heading west. A few more Kalibr missiles are heading towards or passing over Uman. A couple of Kalibr missiles are east of Vinnytsia, heading southwest.

Geopolitical Developments

• The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
• Reports indicate a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a potential face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
• NATO is planning large-scale exercises on its eastern flank, named "Steadfast Dart," from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries.
• The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
• Russia is reportedly studying the possibility of implementing atomic projects in Vietnam and supplying LNG.
• Russia is reportedly ready to share its experience in cybersecurity and AI with Vietnam.
• Mishustin has invited Vietnamese investors to Russia.
• The suspended president of South Korea has reportedly been arrested.
• Teenagers who engaged in a fight at an educational institution in Khabarovsk Krai have reportedly been held administratively liable.
• The Prime Minister of Vietnam has called on businesses to intensify bilateral cooperation between Hanoi and Moscow.

Other Developments

• 3 drones were reportedly destroyed over Russia during the night.
• There is one enemy ship in the Black Sea, which is a carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 4 missiles. There are no enemy ships in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 7 enemy ships, 2 of which are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 22 missiles.
• Elon Musk called the US Securities and Exchange Commission a "broken organization."
• New: Air defense systems are actively engaging targets in the Kursk region.
• New: Near Cherkasy and on the outskirts of the city, air defense systems are operating.

Analysis

The situation is characterized by a high degree of dynamism and fluidity. Russian forces are making significant advances in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions, putting immense pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The capture of Kurakhove and the near-total control of Toretsk represent a major setback for Ukrainian forces, opening the way for a potential Russian push towards Pokrovsk. The renewed offensive in the Kursk region, coupled with the reported breakthrough, indicates a shift in Russian strategy and a possible attempt to expand the conflict zone.

The intensification of drone warfare highlights the evolving nature of the conflict, with both sides employing new technologies and tactics. The confirmed drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's growing capabilities in this domain, while Russia's use of fiber-optic-connected drones showcases its efforts to counter electronic warfare measures. The widespread drone activity across multiple regions underscores the challenges faced by air defense systems and the increasing threat to civilian populations.

The reported takeoff of Russian strategic bombers suggests an imminent escalation in aerial attacks, potentially targeting critical infrastructure or military installations. The air raid alerts across Ukraine indicate a heightened state of readiness and anticipation of further strikes.

The geopolitical developments, including the potential Putin-Trump meeting and NATO exercises, add another layer of complexity to the situation. The US warning to China signals a potential widening of the conflict's international implications.

The new reports of a massive air campaign with missiles and drones targeting multiple regions of Ukraine further escalate the conflict. The use of various types of missiles, including X-22, X-101, and Kalibr, indicates a coordinated and multi-faceted attack. The targeting of cities like Kharkiv, Pryluki, Kryvyi Rih, Zelenodolsk, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr, suggests an intent to strike both military and civilian infrastructure. The warnings to prepare for power outages underscore the potential for widespread disruption. The reports of air defense systems actively engaging targets, particularly near Cherkasy, indicate that Ukrainian forces are attempting to intercept the incoming missiles. The reported liberation of Neskuchne by Russian forces and their advance towards Vremivka marks a significant development on the Velyka Novosilka axis. The multiple reports of different types of missiles being launched from various locations and heading towards numerous targets across Ukraine indicate a complex and evolving air attack. The situation is highly dynamic, with missiles being tracked across multiple regions and Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging the threats. The targeting of cities like Kryvyi Rih, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr suggests a widespread attack aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian defenses and potentially targeting critical infrastructure.

Overall, the situation remains highly precarious for Ukraine. The continued Russian advances, coupled with the intensification of drone warfare, the threat of strategic air attacks, and the new wave of missile and drone strikes pose a significant challenge to Ukrainian defenses. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict.

Previous Report (2025-01-15 04:39:19Z)