Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 31, 2024, 12:17 UTC

Major Updates

• Continued Aerial Threats: Russian forces launched six Tu-22M3 strategic bombers from the Olenya and Engels air bases. They also launched X-22 missiles. A high-speed target was reported in the northern part of Chernihiv Oblast and reports of multiple missiles targeting Shostka. A high-speed target was reported in the direction of Shostka, Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported a threat of enemy drone attacks from the east in Sumy Oblast and from the south in Mykolaiv Oblast. A high-speed target, likely a ballistic missile (possibly S-300), was reported heading towards Kherson. Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv and several other oblasts.
• Drone and Missile Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight. Ukrainian forces report shooting down 15 out of 16 drones, with one drone "lost." Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2,000 km away. A Ukrainian drone attack targeted a hospital in Aleshki (Kherson Oblast), resulting in casualties. Russian air defense systems are actively engaging aerial targets near Belgorod. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian Buk missile system. A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile. Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base. 8 Storm Shadow missiles targeted a military object in Lgov, Kursk Oblast. 8 military personnel were killed, 22 wounded.
• Attacks on Infrastructure: Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
• Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, indicating ongoing threats. Reports that air defense systems were active in Kyiv, with a combination of Iskander and 6 guided air missiles being used.
• Ground Operations: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 168 combat clashes over the past day. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked twice near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. On the Kupiansk direction, the enemy attempted to advance 16 times near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove. Six clashes are ongoing. Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the Kursk region. Russian airborne troops have reportedly taken full control of Cherkaska Konopelka. Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka. Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian forces are reportedly advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko. Russian forces are reportedly advancing up to 3 km towards the town from the south. Russian forces are advancing in Kurakhove, taking control of several streets. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Spear Group" of the 118th Territorial Defense Brigade, reportedly repelled a Russian assault using drones to target and destroy Russian armored vehicles in the Siversk direction. Russian forces report fierce battles near Peschanoe and Volchye, with attempts to advance towards Chunishino and Myrolyubivka. Ukrainian forces report heavy fighting in Lysovka, with Russian forces advancing to the center of the settlement. Ukrainian forces report destroying a reserve of the so-called "Caucasian Legion" that was advancing on armored vehicles to reinforce Ukrainian units in Lysovka. Video footage shows the destruction of a group of the so-called "Caucasus Legion" near Lysivka.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces advancing past the Solen River near Dachenskoye. Russian forces capturing the railway station in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces advancing near the Agronom farm. Russian forces improving positions in Toretsk. Russian forces advancing west of Uspenovka. Russian forces expanding the control zone north of Dachenskoye. Russian forces entering Makhnovka. Russian forces advancing in Vozdvyzhenka. Russian forces expanding the control zone northwest of Uspenovka. Russian forces liberating Volkovo. Russian forces controlling most of Terny. Russian forces reportedly liberated the settlement of Agronom and entered Makhnovka. Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud in the DPR. Russian forces liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and advancing on Yantarnoye, destroying a bridge over the Volchya River in the Kurakhove direction. Russian forces liberated an additional 5 sq km, advancing south of Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the Kurakhove direction. Russian forces captured Novyi Komar and Novopustynka in the Vremivka direction. Russian forces liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne in the Vremivka direction. Russian forces liberated Makarivka on December 16th and control gained over the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces liberated Uspenovka and Ukrainian forces withdrew from the "Uspenivka pocket." Russian forces liberated Neskuchne in DPR. Russian forces liberated more than 5 square kilometers of the territory of the DPR and advancing from the settlement of Zarya towards Yasenev in the Vremivka direction.
• Casualties and Losses: Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment. Ukrainian forces reportedly eliminated over 160 Russian troops in the Donetsk direction in December. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 445 troops in the Kursk region in the past day. Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
• Evacuations: 28 people, including one child, were evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions.
• Targeting of Ukrainian Military Personnel: In Kivsharivka, Kupiansk district, a 51-year-old woman was killed by artillery shelling.
• Drone Warfare: The "Ghost Khortytsia" battalion, a unit of the 15th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, has conducted 1,797 drone missions since its formation on December 13, 2024. Ukrainian forces equipped with two shotguns shot down Russian Mavik drones. Marines used UAVs to locate and eliminate a Baba Yaga-type heavy drone in the Kakhovka direction. "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction. Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. Operators of drones from the BARS-3 "Rodina" unit destroyed a Polish self-propelled gun "Krab".
• Mariupol, Azovstal, Chornobyl NPP, Zmiinyi Island: Defenders of these locations were among the 189 Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians returned home in a significant prisoner exchange.
• Propaganda: A video from the Telegram channel "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" shows a drone targeting Ukrainian personnel and positions, followed by artillery strikes. Another video shows a Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume delivering a holiday message. An interview with a resident of Selidovo (Donetsk region) was shared, detailing alleged atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar, a mobile operator. Additionally, SpaceX has a contract with the US Department of Defense to provide 2,500 Starlink terminals to Ukraine with access to the Starshield system.
• Alleged Attempted Assassination: Reports of an attempted assassination of an illegally mobilized individual in Donetsk.
• Russian Military Training: The Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
• Fundraising Campaigns: Several fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing. A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment. A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky.
• Ukrainian Morale-Boosting Video: A video from the 97th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian soldier with a drone strike on the Lyman direction of the front.
• Public Opinion Poll: A poll by the "Rating" group indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in Ukraine, with over 70% of respondents having relatives who have fought or are fighting in the war.
• Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Reports from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske. Ukrainian forces also reportedly advanced 900 meters south of Vyimka after clearing a forest belt.
• Russian Naval Successes: The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024.
• US Aid Package: The US announced a final aid package for Ukraine from the Biden administration, totaling $15 billion in credit secured by frozen Russian assets. An additional $2.5 billion was also provided, along with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets. The $1.25 billion aid package from the US includes munitions for anti-drone systems, air defense, HIMARS, 155mm and 105mm artillery shells, air-to-ground munitions, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, TOW missiles, fragmentation grenades, demolition equipment, communications, training, software, clothing, spare parts, and other equipment.
• New Ukrainian Military Ombudsman: President Zelensky appointed Olga Reshetilova as the new military ombudsman.
• Gas Transportation Tariffs: Tariffs for gas transportation may increase fourfold for domestic consumers in Ukraine due to the cessation of Russian gas transit.
• New Legislation in Ukraine: President Zelensky signed a law eliminating Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSECs).
• Infrastructure in Poland: Poland plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region for rapid troop deployment.
• South Korea and Japan as potential targets: Reports that Russia has developed plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea.
• Recruitment centers in Ukraine: In the first year of operation, over 32,000 Ukrainians applied to recruitment centers.
• Statistics on crimes committed by migrants in Russia: The Khabarovsk Krai Police has stated that official statistics on crimes committed by foreigners in Russia for 2024 will be published in January 2025.
• New Year's greetings from the African Corps: A video message from soldiers claiming to be part of the African Corps, extending New Year's greetings.
• New Developments:
  • Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus and presented a traditional Ukrainian shirt to al-Julani.
  • Report of non-public part of negotiations between Ukrainian delegation and Damascus: Kyiv is reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists, particularly Chechens, and weapons from the remnants of the Syrian government army.
  • Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone: The report suggests that Chechen fighters who previously fought in Aleppo and Homs might soon appear in the conflict zone, fighting on the Ukrainian side.
  • Report of Russian forces being attacked by soldiers from the Foreign Legion under Pokrovsk: Russian forces attacked soldiers from the Foreign Legion near Pokrovsk.
  • Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration: Ruslan Kravchenko has been appointed head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine.
  • Sabotage in Tver: The Legion "Freedom of Russia" claimed responsibility for setting fire to a communication tower in Tver.
  • Lgov Attack: 8 Storm Shadow missiles targeted a military object in Lgov, Kursk Oblast. 8 military personnel were killed, 22 wounded.
  • Fundraising for Desantnyks: A fundraising campaign is underway to support Ukrainian paratroopers, specifically to purchase Mavic drones.
  • Report on Ukrainian Drone Production: Ukraine is now producing 96% of the drones needed for the front, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Over 1.2 million drones have been procured through the "Army of Drones" project.
  • New Year Greetings from Commander Budanov: The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, delivered a New Year's greeting, emphasizing the ongoing struggle and vowing retribution against enemies.
  • Fundraising for Russian Forces: A New Year's fundraising campaign is underway for Russian forces, specifically to purchase motorcycles and drones.
  • Report on Russian Military Production: A video from a volunteer sewing workshop in Rostov-on-Don indicates increased production of military supplies for Russian forces.
  • New Year Greetings from Russian Blogger: A New Year's greeting from a pro-Russian blogger, emphasizing the ongoing conflict and the need for continued support for the Russian military.
  • Report on Russian Military Awards: Over the course of the "Special Military Operation," 52 servicemen in the "Vostok" group have been awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation, and 14 military units have been designated as "Guards."
  • New Year Address by Putin: President Putin delivered a New Year's address, expressing confidence in the country's future and acknowledging the challenges ahead.
• New Information:
  • An analysis of a photo showing a Shaanxi Y-9 transport aircraft in flight suggests potential logistics operations.
  • Russian forces in occupied Kherson region are reportedly searching for and planning to sell land plots owned by Ukrainians who have left.
  • Image of Russian soldiers wearing "Z" patches indicates their likely involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
  • Fox News included President Biden's recent gaffe, referring to Ukrainian President Zelensky as "President [Vladimir] Putin".
  • At least 28 people died in the plane crash in South Korea.
  • A video shows the moment of the Boeing 737 crash in South Korea. There were 175 passengers and 6 crew members on board.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, with reports of heavy Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions, including near Kyiv and Poltava. Russian forces are actively using drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower, and there are reports of Ukrainian drones successfully targeting Russian helicopters. Ukrainian drone production has reportedly reached 96% of the front's needs, with over 1.2 million drones procured through the "Army of Drones" project.

A new and significant development is the emergence of a ballistic missile threat, particularly targeting Kyiv and Shostka. Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, and strikes have been reported in Shostka. The threat of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk adds complexity to the situation. The recent attack on Lgov using Storm Shadow missiles highlights Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities and their potential impact on Russian military assets within Russia itself. The reported casualties and damage underscore the effectiveness of these Western-supplied weapons. There's also a report of a potential ballistic missile (likely S-300) heading towards Kherson.

The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine. The US has announced a significant aid package, and the appointment of a new Ukrainian military ombudsman signals a focus on the rights and well-being of servicemen. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging. The reported Russian plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, although based on older documents, add a new dimension to the conflict's potential expansion. The Ukrainian delegation's visit to Damascus and the reported interest in acquiring jihadists and weapons from Syria introduce a new and potentially controversial element to the conflict. The potential involvement of Chechen fighters on the Ukrainian side could further escalate the conflict and introduce new dynamics.

Recruitment efforts in Ukraine are ongoing, with over 32,000 applications to recruitment centers. The reported Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction highlight the intensity of the fighting and the need for continued recruitment and reinforcement. The fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces underscore the ongoing need for resources and equipment, particularly drones, which have proven to be crucial in the conflict.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks. The new ballistic missile threat, coupled with the continued drone warfare and ground offensives, indicates a complex and dangerous phase in the conflict. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with ongoing discussions about further support for Ukraine and potential responses to Russian aggression. The New Year greetings from both Ukrainian and Russian leaders, while expected, provide further insight into the morale and strategic messaging of both sides.

Previous Report (2024-12-31 11:49:05Z)