Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 31, 2024, 11:47 UTC

Major Updates

• Continued Air Activity Over Russia: Russian forces launched six Tu-22M3 strategic bombers from the Olenya and Engels air bases. They also launched X-22 missiles. Reports indicate ongoing air activity with the take-off of a MiG-31K from Savasleyka and the launch of X-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers. A high-speed target was reported in the northern part of Chernihiv Oblast and reports of multiple missiles targeting Shostka. A high-speed target was reported in the direction of Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
• Drone and Missile Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight. Reports of drone attacks on an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast, with the local governor claiming "debris" fell. 17 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea overnight, with 4 near Sevastopol. Two unmanned boats were also reportedly destroyed near the coast of Sevastopol. Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport. A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile. Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base. A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile. Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base. Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base. A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile. Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base. Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base. A Ukrainian drone attack targeted a hospital in Aleshki (Kherson Oblast), resulting in casualties. Russian air defense systems are actively engaging aerial targets near Belgorod. Reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported. Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian Buk missile system. Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater.
• Attacks on Infrastructure: Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
• Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, indicating ongoing threats. Reports that air defense systems were active in Kyiv, with a combination of Iskander and 6 guided air missiles being used. Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, indicating ongoing threats. Reports that air defense systems were active in Kyiv, with a combination of Iskander and 6 guided air missiles being used. Reports that air defense systems were active in Kyiv, with a combination of Iskander and 6 guided air missiles being used.
• Ground Operations: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 168 combat clashes over the past day. The enemy launched one missile strike and used 1864 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian aviation, missile, and artillery forces struck four areas of enemy concentration, an ammunition depot, and six other important enemy targets. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked twice near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. On the Kupiansk direction, the enemy attempted to advance 16 times near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove. Six clashes are ongoing. Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the Kursk region. Reports of a military serviceman's suicide in the region. Russian airborne troops have reportedly taken full control of Cherkaska Konopelka, with assault troops establishing a flag in the center. Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka. Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian airborne troops are maintaining control of the skies over the Kursk region. Russian forces are reportedly advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko. Russian forces are reportedly advancing up to 3 km towards the town from the south.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces advancing past the Solen River near Dachenskoye. Russian forces capturing the railway station in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces advancing near the Agronom farm. Russian forces improving positions in Toretsk. Russian forces advancing west of Uspenovka. Russian forces expanding the control zone north of Dachenskoye. Russian forces entering Makhnovka. Russian forces advancing in Vozdvyzhenka. Russian forces expanding the control zone northwest of Uspenovka. Russian forces liberating Volkovo. Russian forces controlling most of Terny. Russian forces reportedly liberated the settlement of Agronom and entered Makhnovka.
• Casualties and Losses: Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment. Ukrainian forces reportedly eliminated over 160 Russian troops in the Donetsk direction in December. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 445 troops in the Kursk region in the past day. This is part of a larger report detailing Ukrainian losses since the beginning of hostilities in the region. Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks, according to sources in the security forces cited by TASS.
• Evacuations: 28 people, including one child, were evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions.
• Targeting of Ukrainian Military Personnel: In Kivsharivka, Kupiansk district, a 51-year-old woman was killed by artillery shelling. A multi-story residential building was also damaged.
• Drone Warfare: The "Ghost Khortytsia" battalion, a unit of the 15th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, has conducted 1797 drone missions since its formation on December 13, 2024. They claim to have killed or wounded 232 enemy personnel, destroyed 220 infrastructure points, 13 armored vehicles, 3 logistics vehicles, 2 electronic warfare/SIGINT units, and conducted 26 remote mining missions.
• Mariupol, Azovstal, Chornobyl NPP, Zmiinyi Island: Defenders of these locations were among the 189 Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians returned home in a significant prisoner exchange.
• Drone Observation Video: Video shows a drone observation of Russian forces ambushing and engaging enemy personnel in a wooded area.
• Propaganda: A video from the Telegram channel "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" shows a drone targeting Ukrainian personnel and positions, followed by artillery strikes. This is likely a propaganda effort to showcase the effectiveness of Russian forces. Another video shows a Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume delivering a holiday message, which can be seen as a soft power campaign to maintain morale and project an image of normalcy. An interview with a resident of Selidovo (Donetsk region) was shared, detailing alleged atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces. This is likely part of a Russian propaganda effort.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar, a mobile operator. This will provide satellite connectivity to Kyivstar subscribers starting in 2025. Additionally, SpaceX has a contract with the US Department of Defense to provide 2,500 Starlink terminals to Ukraine with access to the Starshield system, a secure and encrypted signal.
• Alleged Attempted Assassination: Reports of an attempted assassination of an illegally mobilized individual in Donetsk. The victim is reportedly in serious condition.
• Russian Military Training: The Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
• Fundraising Campaigns: Several fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing, highlighting the continued need for resources and equipment on both sides of the conflict. A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment. A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment. A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky. A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment. A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky.
• Ukrainian Morale-Boosting Video: A video from the 97th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian soldier with a drone strike on the Lyman direction of the front.
• Public Opinion Poll: A poll by the "Rating" group indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in Ukraine, with over 70% of respondents having relatives who have fought or are fighting in the war. The poll also shows a high level of distrust towards employees of the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC).
• Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Reports from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske, with the goal of expanding control towards a field reservoir east of Seversk. Ukrainian forces also reportedly advanced 900 meters south of Vyimka after clearing a forest belt.
• Russian Naval Successes: The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024, with over 350 exercises conducted. The report also mentions the participation of Russian ships in joint naval exercises with foreign countries and a seven-month deployment of a ship detachment to the Mediterranean Sea.
• US Aid Package: The US announced a final aid package for Ukraine from the Biden administration, totaling $15 billion in credit secured by frozen Russian assets. An additional $2.5 billion was also provided, along with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets. Future aid packages will need to be negotiated with the potential Trump administration. The $1.25 billion aid package from the US includes munitions for anti-drone systems, air defense, HIMARS, 155mm and 105mm artillery shells, air-to-ground munitions, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, TOW missiles, fragmentation grenades, demolition equipment, communications, training, software, clothing, spare parts, and other equipment.
• New Ukrainian Military Ombudsman: President Zelensky appointed Olga Reshetilova as the new military ombudsman, responsible for protecting the rights of servicemen and their families.
• Gas Transportation Tariffs: Tariffs for gas transportation may increase fourfold for domestic consumers in Ukraine due to the cessation of Russian gas transit.
• New Legislation in Ukraine: President Zelensky signed a law eliminating Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSECs), to be replaced by expert commissions in hospitals.
• Infrastructure in Poland: Poland plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region for rapid troop deployment.
• South Korea and Japan as potential targets: Reports that Russia has developed plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea. These plans reportedly include attacks on 160 targets, including both military and civilian infrastructure. This information, sourced from the Financial Times, is based on leaked Russian military documents dating from 2008-2014.
• Recruitment centers in Ukraine: In the first year of operation, over 32,000 Ukrainians applied to recruitment centers, with 7,198 currently being considered as candidates for the Defense Forces. There are 47 operational centers, with plans to expand the network in the next year. The most active applicants are from Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv.
• Statistics on crimes committed by migrants in Russia: The Khabarovsk Krai Police has stated that official statistics on crimes committed by foreigners in Russia for 2024 will be published in January 2025 on the Ministry of Internal Affairs website and other departmental resources. They emphasize the importance of relying on official sources for this information.
• New Year's greetings from the African Corps: A video message from soldiers claiming to be part of the African Corps, extending New Year's greetings and emphasizing their commitment to defending Russia's interests on "distant frontiers."
• New Developments:
  • Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus and presented a traditional Ukrainian shirt to al-Julani.
  • Report of non-public part of negotiations between Ukrainian delegation and Damascus: Kyiv is reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists, particularly Chechens, and weapons from the remnants of the Syrian government army.
  • Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone: The report suggests that Chechen fighters who previously fought in Aleppo and Homs might soon appear in the conflict zone, fighting on the Ukrainian side.
  • Report of Russian forces being attacked by soldiers from the Foreign Legion under Pokrovsk: Russian forces attacked soldiers from the Foreign Legion near Pokrovsk.
  • Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration: Ruslan Kravchenko has been appointed head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine.
  • Sabotage in Tver: The Legion "Freedom of Russia" claimed responsibility for setting fire to a communication tower in Tver. This indicates internal resistance and potential sabotage operations within Russia.
  • Lgov Attack: 8 Storm Shadow missiles targeted a military object in Lgov, Kursk Oblast. 8 military personnel were killed, 22 wounded.
  • Fundraising for Desantnyks: A fundraising campaign is underway to support Ukrainian paratroopers, specifically to purchase Mavic drones.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, with reports of heavy Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions, including near Kyiv and Poltava. Russian forces are actively using drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower, and there are reports of Ukrainian drones successfully targeting Russian helicopters.

A new and significant development is the emergence of a ballistic missile threat, particularly targeting Kyiv and Shostka. Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, and strikes have been reported in Shostka. The threat of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk adds complexity to the situation. The recent attack on Lgov using Storm Shadow missiles highlights Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities and their potential impact on Russian military assets within Russia itself. The reported casualties and damage underscore the effectiveness of these Western-supplied weapons.

The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine. The US has announced a significant aid package, and the appointment of a new Ukrainian military ombudsman signals a focus on the rights and well-being of servicemen. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging. The reported Russian plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, although based on older documents, add a new dimension to the conflict's potential expansion. The Ukrainian delegation's visit to Damascus and the reported interest in acquiring jihadists and weapons from Syria introduce a new and potentially controversial element to the conflict. The potential involvement of Chechen fighters on the Ukrainian side could further escalate the conflict and introduce new dynamics.

Recruitment efforts in Ukraine are ongoing, with over 32,000 applications to recruitment centers. The reported Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction highlight the intensity of the fighting and the need for continued recruitment and reinforcement. The fundraising campaign for Ukrainian paratroopers underscores the ongoing need for resources and equipment, particularly drones, which have proven to be crucial in the conflict.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks. The new ballistic missile threat, coupled with the continued drone warfare and ground offensives, indicates a complex and dangerous phase in the conflict. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with ongoing discussions about further support for Ukraine and potential responses to Russian aggression.

Previous Report (2024-12-31 11:20:19Z)