Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 31, 2024, 11:17 UTC

Major Updates

• Continued Air Activity Over Russia: Russian forces launched six Tu-22M3 strategic bombers from the Olenya and Engels air bases. They also launched X-22 missiles.
• Continued Air Activity: Reports indicate ongoing air activity with the take-off of a MiG-31K from Savasleyka and the launch of X-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers. There's also a high-speed target in the northern part of Chernihiv Oblast and reports of multiple missiles targeting Shostka.
• Air Activity Over Sumy Oblast: A high-speed target was reported in the direction of Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
• Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: There were no attacks on Kharkiv city overnight. However, an enemy drone caused a fire in a residential building in Vidrodzhenivske, Bohodukhiv district. In Kivsharivka, Kupiansk district, a 51-year-old woman was killed by artillery shelling. A multi-story residential building was also damaged.
• Fighting in Kharkiv Oblast: On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked twice near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. On the Kupiansk direction, the enemy attempted to advance 16 times near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove. Six clashes are ongoing.
• Evacuations: 28 people, including one child, were evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions.
• Military Engagements: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 168 combat clashes over the past day. The enemy launched one missile strike and used 1864 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian aviation, missile, and artillery forces struck four areas of enemy concentration, an ammunition depot, and six other important enemy targets.
• Russian Losses: Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment.
• Russian Drone Usage: The "Ghost Khortytsia" battalion, a unit of the 15th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, has conducted 1797 drone missions since its formation on December 13, 2024. They claim to have killed or wounded 232 enemy personnel, destroyed 220 infrastructure points, 13 armored vehicles, 3 logistics vehicles, 2 electronic warfare/SIGINT units, and conducted 26 remote mining missions.
• New Year's Celebrations: The main Ded Moroz (Russian Santa Claus) wished all soldiers participating in the special military operation the fulfillment of their desires and a reliable rear. In Moscow, there are no exceptions for violating the silence on New Year's Eve, and the launch of fireworks after 23:00 is prohibited.
• War Crimes Accusations: Some of the military personnel participating in the New Year's shows on Russian television channels are accused of war crimes in Ukraine.
• Propaganda: A video from the Telegram channel "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" shows a drone targeting Ukrainian personnel and positions, followed by artillery strikes. This is likely a propaganda effort to showcase the effectiveness of Russian forces. Another video shows a Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume delivering a holiday message, which can be seen as a soft power campaign to maintain morale and project an image of normalcy.
• Explosions in Kyiv: Explosions were reported in Kyiv, with debris falling in the Darnytskyi district. No casualties or significant damage were reported.
• Air Defense Activity in Kyiv: Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, indicating ongoing threats.
• Missile Attacks on Shostka: Russian forces launched multiple missile attacks on Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
• Drone Attacks in Smolensk Oblast: Reports of drone attacks on an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast, with the local governor claiming "debris" fell.
• Explosions in Sevastopol: Reports of loud explosions in Sevastopol overnight, with claims of drone attacks.
• Drone Attacks in North Ossetia: A drone was reportedly shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia. Vladikavkaz airport was closed for arrivals and departures.
• Drone and Missile Attacks on Crimea: 17 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea overnight, with 4 near Sevastopol. Two unmanned boats were also reportedly destroyed near the coast of Sevastopol.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar, a mobile operator. This will provide satellite connectivity to Kyivstar subscribers starting in 2025. Additionally, SpaceX has a contract with the US Department of Defense to provide 2,500 Starlink terminals to Ukraine with access to the Starshield system, a secure and encrypted signal.
• Potential Assault in Kherson Region: Reports from a partisan group "ATESH" suggest that Russian forces are preparing for an assault in the Kherson region, expecting heavy losses. The information reportedly comes from an agent within the 1218th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces.
• Alleged Attempted Assassination in Donetsk: Reports of an attempted assassination of an illegally mobilized individual in Donetsk. The victim is reportedly in serious condition.
• Russian Military Training: The Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
• Drone Attack: A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile.
• Fundraising Campaigns: Several fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing, highlighting the continued need for resources and equipment on both sides of the conflict.
• Ukrainian Morale-Boosting Video: A video from the 97th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian soldier with a drone strike on the Lyman direction of the front.
• Ukraine's Commitment to Syria: Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will "do everything possible to help Syria get rid of Russian influence."
• Continued Air Activity Over Russia: Reports that 8 TU-22M3 bombers (4 from Olenya and 4 from Engels) were active.
• Attacks on Infrastructure in Shostka: Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
• Air Defense Activity in Kyiv: Reports that air defense systems were active in Kyiv, with a combination of Iskander and 6 guided air missiles being used.
• Drone Attacks in North Ossetia: Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport.
• Air Defense Activity in Kyiv: Reports that air defense systems were active in Kyiv, with a combination of Iskander and 6 guided air missiles being used.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• Subway Shelter Usage: Images from Kyiv's subway system show civilians using it as a shelter during air raids.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• Drone Attacks in North Ossetia: Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport.
• Public Opinion Poll: A poll by the "Rating" group indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in Ukraine, with over 70% of respondents having relatives who have fought or are fighting in the war. The poll also shows a high level of distrust towards employees of the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC).
• Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Reports from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske, with the goal of expanding control towards a field reservoir east of Seversk. Ukrainian forces also reportedly advanced 900 meters south of Vyimka after clearing a forest belt.
• Russian Naval Successes: The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024, with over 350 exercises conducted. The report also mentions the participation of Russian ships in joint naval exercises with foreign countries and a seven-month deployment of a ship detachment to the Mediterranean Sea.
• HIMARS Strike in Kherson Oblast: Reports of a Russian missile strike targeting HIMARS launchers in Kherson Oblast.
• New Year's Greetings from Russian Celebrities: A video message from the rector of the Vaganova Academy of Russian Ballet, Nikolai Tsiskaridze, wishing readers of TASS a happy new year.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Forces: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Forces: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky.
• Arrest Warrant for Former South Korean President: Reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for the impeached former president of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, on charges of imposing martial law, organizing a rebellion, and abuse of power.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted: Reports that air raid alerts have been lifted across Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Military Losses in Kurakhove Direction: Reports from TASS, citing sources in the security forces, that Ukrainian forces have lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Airborne Forces: A video message from the communications department of the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, wishing viewers a happy new year and thanking them for their support.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• No Lump-Sum Payments for Contracted Prisoners: A new decree from the Russian government denies lump-sum payments to prisoners who sign contracts to join the military.
• Drone Attack on Bryansk Oblast: Reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024, including a 40% increase in rapes.
• New Year's Greetings from the Police of Khabarovsk Krai: A photo message from the police of Khabarovsk Krai, wishing everyone a happy new year.
• New Year's Greetings from the Police of Khabarovsk Krai: A photo message from the police of Khabarovsk Krai, wishing everyone a happy new year.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
• New Advertisement for a Mobile Game: A new advertisement for a mobile game called "Battle of Drones: Ukraine," created by "real commanders during the war."
• New Advertisement for a Mobile Game: A new advertisement for a mobile game called "Battle of Drones: Ukraine," created by "real commanders during the war."
• New Russian Missile and Drone Attacks: Reports of new Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with damage reported in Shostka and Kyiv. Air raid alerts have been issued across the country.
• Praise for Russian General: A photo and message praising Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev as the "commander of the year," highlighting the successes of his troops in 2024.
• Praise for Russian General: A photo and message praising Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev as the "commander of the year," highlighting the successes of his troops in 2024.
• Drone Attack on Russian Soldier: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
• Drone Attack on Russian Soldier: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted in Kyiv: Air raid alerts have been lifted in Kyiv, indicating a temporary de-escalation in the immediate threat.
• Ukrainian Drone Strikes Russian Helicopter: Ukrainian forces successfully used a Magura V5 naval drone equipped with an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile to shoot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea. This marks a significant development in Ukraine's naval drone capabilities.
• Ukrainian Military Losses in Kurakhove Direction: Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks. This indicates the intensity of the fighting in this area and the heavy toll it is taking on Ukrainian forces.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Airborne Forces: A video message from the communications department of the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, thanking viewers for their support. This is a morale-boosting effort aimed at maintaining public support for the military.
• Russian Government Denies Lump-Sum Payments to Contracted Prisoners: A new decree from the Russian government denies lump-sum payments to prisoners who sign contracts to join the military. This could potentially impact recruitment efforts among this demographic.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024, including a 40% increase in rapes. This could potentially lead to increased social tensions and impact domestic security.
• Propaganda Efforts: A video from a Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume delivering a holiday message and a video from the Telegram channel "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" showing a drone targeting Ukrainian personnel and positions, followed by artillery strikes, are examples of ongoing propaganda efforts by both sides to maintain morale and showcase their effectiveness.
• Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus and presented a traditional Ukrainian shirt to al-Julani.
• Report of non-public part of negotiations between Ukrainian delegation and Damascus: Kyiv is reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists, particularly Chechens, and weapons from the remnants of the Syrian government army.
• Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone: The report suggests that Chechen fighters who previously fought in Aleppo and Homs might soon appear in the conflict zone, fighting on the Ukrainian side.
• Report of Russian forces being attacked by soldiers from the Foreign Legion under Pokrovsk: Russian forces attacked soldiers from the Foreign Legion near Pokrovsk.
• Three Russian soldiers were released from hospitals: The condition of three other soldiers remains critical.
• Report of renewed attack on Lgov with 8 Storm Shadow missiles: The attack suggests the use of Western long-range precision weapons against targets in Russia.
• Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration: Ruslan Kravchenko has been appointed head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine.
• Inspection of combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines: Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
• Report on the downing of a Russian helicopter by a Ukrainian drone: A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile.
• Sabotage in Tver: The Legion "Freedom of Russia" claimed responsibility for setting fire to a communication tower in Tver. This indicates internal resistance and potential sabotage operations within Russia.
• Map Updates: Several changes to the map were reported, including:
  • Russian forces advancing past the Solen River near Dachenskoye.
  • Russian forces capturing the railway station in Chasiv Yar.
  • Russian forces advancing near the Agronom farm.
  • Russian forces improving positions in Toretsk.
  • Russian forces advancing west of Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces expanding the control zone north of Dachenskoye.
  • Russian forces entering Makhnovka.
  • Russian forces advancing in Vozdvyzhenka.
  • Russian forces expanding the control zone northwest of Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces liberating Volkovo.
  • Russian forces controlling most of Terny.
• New Year's Greetings from Russian Celebrities: A video message from the rector of the Vaganova Academy of Russian Ballet, Nikolai Tsiskaridze, wishing readers of TASS a happy new year.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Forces: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• No Lump-Sum Payments for Contracted Prisoners: A new decree from the Russian government denies lump-sum payments to prisoners who sign contracts to join the military.
• Drone Attack on Bryansk Oblast: Reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024, including a 40% increase in rapes.
• New Year's Greetings from the Police of Khabarovsk Krai: A photo message from the police of Khabarovsk Krai, wishing everyone a happy new year.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
• New Advertisement for a Mobile Game: A new advertisement for a mobile game called "Battle of Drones: Ukraine," created by "real commanders during the war."
• New Russian Missile and Drone Attacks: Reports of new Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with damage reported in Shostka and Kyiv. Air raid alerts have been issued across the country.
• Praise for Russian General: A photo and message praising Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev as the "commander of the year," highlighting the successes of his troops in 2024.
• Drone Attack on Russian Soldier: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted in Kyiv: Air raid alerts have been lifted in Kyiv, indicating a temporary de-escalation in the immediate threat.
• South Korea and Japan as potential targets: Reports that Russia has developed plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea. These plans reportedly include attacks on 160 targets, including both military and civilian infrastructure. This information, sourced from the Financial Times, is based on leaked Russian military documents dating from 2008-2014.
• Russian military losses in the Kursk region: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 445 troops in the Kursk region in the past day. This is part of a larger report detailing Ukrainian losses since the beginning of hostilities in the region.
• Recruitment centers in Ukraine: In the first year of operation, over 32,000 Ukrainians applied to recruitment centers, with 7,198 currently being considered as candidates for the Defense Forces. There are 47 operational centers, with plans to expand the network in the next year. The most active applicants are from Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv.
• Ukrainian forces losses in the Kurakhove direction: Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks, according to sources in the security forces cited by TASS.
• Statistics on crimes committed by migrants in Russia: The Khabarovsk Krai Police has stated that official statistics on crimes committed by foreigners in Russia for 2024 will be published in January 2025 on the Ministry of Internal Affairs website and other departmental resources. They emphasize the importance of relying on official sources for this information.
• New Year's greetings from the African Corps: A video message from soldiers claiming to be part of the African Corps, extending New Year's greetings and emphasizing their commitment to defending Russia's interests on "distant frontiers."

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, with reports of heavy Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions, including near Kyiv and Poltava. Russian forces are actively using drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower, and there are reports of Ukrainian drones successfully targeting Russian helicopters.

A new and significant development is the emergence of a ballistic missile threat, particularly targeting Kyiv and Shostka. Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, and strikes have been reported in Shostka. The threat of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk adds complexity to the situation.

The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging. The reported Russian plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, although based on older documents, add a new dimension to the conflict's potential expansion.

Recruitment efforts in Ukraine are ongoing, with over 32,000 applications to recruitment centers. The reported Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction highlight the intensity of the fighting and the need for continued recruitment and reinforcement.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks. The new ballistic missile threat, coupled with the continued drone warfare and ground offensives, indicates a complex and dangerous phase in the conflict. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with ongoing discussions about further support for Ukraine and potential responses to Russian aggression.

Previous Report (2024-12-31 10:52:15Z)