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Situation Report

2025-06-07 16:13:14Z
Previous Report (2025-06-07 15:43:10Z)

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 07 JUN 25 / 16:15 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 07 JUN 25 / 15:45 ZULU - 07 JUN 25 / 16:15 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

  • AOR Update (Unchanged from previous report unless specified): Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City - Kyivskyi, Osnovyanskyi, Shevchenkivskyi Districts, suburbs, Kommunar factory, recreational park, children's railway, Velikoburlutsky, Kupyansk directions), Volyn Oblast (Lutsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, oblast border, Kryvyi Rih, Pavlohrad, Pleshcheevka, Malinovka, Charivne, Mezheva community, Synelnykove district, Nikopol region), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (14 populated areas, Zaporozhye direction, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Chervonne, Malinovka), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast (Sumy direction, Yunakivka, Kondratovka, Alexandropol, Klymentove, Uhroyidy, Novonikolaevka, Pisarevka, Khotin, Vorochina, Nizhnya Duvanka), Russian Federation (Kursk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city (Gorbushkin Dvor, VDNKh), Saratov Oblast - Engels; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol), Southern Donetsk Direction (Fedorivka, Perbudova, Komar, Maksimovka, Razdolnoye, Vorskresenka, Poddubnoye, Velyka Novosilka, Chasov Yar), Konstantinovka direction (Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, Tarasovka, Ignatovka, Zarya), Siversk direction (Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Ivano-Daryivka, Pereizne), Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis, Toretsk axis, Novopavlivka axis, Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka), Kupyansk axis (Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka), Kherson axis (Mykolayivka), Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast (Drohobych).

  • Key Terrain (Kharkiv City): New KAB strikes confirmed on a recreational park and children's railway in the city center. Casualties have increased to 1 fatality (30-year-old female) and 16 injured, including a 14-year-old boy. Emergency services are conducting debris removal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

  • Key Terrain (Zaporizhzhia Region): Explosions heard by residents in some parts of Zaporizhzhia city are confirmed as enemy attacks on Zaporizhzhia district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

  • Key Terrain (Belgorod Oblast, RF): Governor Gladkov reports 4 casualties (3 males, 1 female) due to Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian claim)

  • Key Terrain (Sumy / Poltava Oblasts): Rocket danger declared. A high-speed target was observed in Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

  • Key Terrain (Komar, Southern Donetsk Direction): Russian sources claim artillery and FPV drone strikes by Russia's 36th Combined Arms Army against one UAV command post and three temporary deployment points in Komar. They also claim 2 "Baba-Yaga" drones were shot down by FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim, unverified BDA)

  • Key Terrain (Tetkino area, Kursk Oblast, RF border): Russian milblogger "Операция Z" posts a video claiming "butchery near Tetkino," depicting deceased combatants and stating "the enemy is trying to break through." Implies ongoing direct combat. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim of combat, visual of deceased personnel is HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

  • Continued KAB strikes in Kharkiv cause significant urban debris and hazards, straining emergency services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ongoing combat in forested areas (Tetkino, if video is authentic) will be impacted by recent precipitation, potentially affecting ground maneuver and drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

  • Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): Actively responding to KAB launches in Kharkiv, and missile threats in Sumy/Poltava. Successful interception of a Russian Su-35 fighter over Kursk (from previous report). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Forces (Emergency Services): Overwhelmed and actively engaged in damage control, casualty evacuation, and debris removal in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Forces (Drone Operators):
    • 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" has received a multi-channel EW system (REB), enhancing their counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, UAV Platoon "Radist", actively destroying Russian transport on the Eastern Front using drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • SBU confirms successful deep-strike FPV drone operation ("Operation Pavutina") against a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber at Belaya airfield, Irkutsk Oblast (approximately 5,000km from border). Video shows drone launch, sustained flight, and direct impact on the aircraft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Forces (Ground Forces): Snipe platoon commander from 229th Battalion, OTU "Kharkiv," identified. This highlights continued defensive efforts and specific capabilities in the Kharkiv operational area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed KAB launches on Kharkiv. Reports of strategic bombers ("cruise missile carriers") becoming active again on the background of AFU activation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for KABs, MEDIUM for bomber activity resurgence).
  • Russian Forces (Ground - Artillery/Drones): Russian 36th Combined Arms Army actively using artillery and FPV drones against Ukrainian UAV C2 and temporary deployment points. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Forces (Ground - Border Areas): Engaged in direct combat with Ukrainian forces attempting breakthroughs near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim)
  • Russian Forces (Information Operations): TASS and Russian milbloggers (Kotyonok, Colonelcassad) are amplifying claims of Ukraine failing to engage in scheduled body/POW exchange talks, blaming Ukraine for the disruption. This is a coordinated info op. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Forces (Training/Internal Affairs): "Poddybny" posts images from the "Time of Heroes" educational program, showing Russian officials and military personnel, indicating ongoing efforts to integrate military personnel into state apparatus and formalize command structures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

  • Capabilities:
    • Aerial (Precision Guided Munitions): Sustained and deliberate capability to deliver KABs on civilian targets in Kharkiv, including recreational areas, to inflict maximum psychological and physical damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Aerial (Missiles): Confirmed capability to launch ballistic missiles (high-speed target reported) towards Sumy/Poltava oblasts, likely targeting critical infrastructure or military assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Ground (Combined Arms/Artillery/Drones): Continued integration of artillery and FPV drones for counter-UAV and targeted strikes against Ukrainian positions, as seen in Komar. Capability to defend border areas against Ukrainian incursions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Information Warfare: Highly coordinated and persistent capability to launch and amplify disinformation campaigns, particularly regarding humanitarian issues like POW/body exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Intentions:
    • Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia: Continue to terrorize civilian populations, disrupt daily life, and overwhelm emergency services through indiscriminate aerial attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Sumy/Poltava: Maintain missile threat to force Ukraine to divert air defense assets and degrade rear-area capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Border Areas (Tetkino): Defend against Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory, likely to prevent border area consolidation and to maintain internal security narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Information Warfare: Undermine Ukrainian credibility, sow discord, and present Russia as a responsible actor while blaming Ukraine for failures (e.g., body exchange). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Courses of Action (COA):
    • COA 1 (MLCOA - Continued Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation): Russia will continue its campaign of massed aerial strikes (KABs, missiles, drones) targeting urban centers, civilian infrastructure, and potentially energy/logistics hubs to break Ukrainian resilience and deplete air defense munitions. This will be accompanied by a persistent and aggressive information campaign, such as the body exchange narrative.
      • Confidence: HIGH
      • Indicators: KAB strikes on Kharkiv, including civilian recreational areas. Missile threat in Sumy/Poltava. Coordinated Russian media reports on body exchange.
    • COA 2 (Ground Offensive Intensification on Key Axes, particularly Sumy and Donetsk, with Integrated Air/Drone Support and Enhanced Counter-UAV Measures): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives, particularly on the Sumy axis (as per previous ISR) and the Donetsk axis. They will continue to integrate air support (KABs), artillery, and FPV drones, while also actively targeting Ukrainian drone operations to facilitate their advances. Defensive actions in border regions will escalate if Ukrainian pressure continues.
      • Confidence: HIGH
      • Indicators: Reports of active strategic bombers ("cruise missile carriers"). Russian forces targeting Ukrainian UAV C2 and deployment points in Komar. Claims of intense combat near Tetkino.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • Deliberate Targeting of Civilian Recreational Areas: The strike on a children's railway and park in Kharkiv signifies a tactical shift towards explicitly non-military, high-civilian-impact targets. This indicates an intent to maximize psychological terror. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Active Counter-UAV by Russian FPVs: The claim by the 36th CAA of using FPV drones to shoot down Ukrainian "Baba-Yaga" drones indicates an active and evolving Russian counter-UAV tactic. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim)
  • Re-activation of Strategic Bombers: The Russian claim of "cruise missile carriers" flying again after Ukrainian deep strikes indicates a rapid adaptation to regenerate long-range strike capabilities, possibly by relocating aircraft or changing operational patterns. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • Continued high rate of KAB usage, missile launches, and FPV drone operations indicates sustained, though potentially strained, supply chains for these munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • The SBU's deep strike on the Tu-22M3 bomber at Belaya, if confirmed as a combat loss or significant damage, represents a tangible degradation of Russia's strategic aviation and will impact their ability to project long-range air power, potentially straining maintenance and replacement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for strike, MEDIUM for long-term impact until BDA)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • Russian C2 demonstrates continued ability to coordinate multi-domain strikes (KABs, missiles) across multiple oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian C2 over ground forces appears to be effectively managing defensive operations in border regions (Tetkino) and coordinating tactical strikes (Komar). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • The coordinated, sustained disinformation campaign on the body exchange issue highlights effective centralized C2 over information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • The "Time of Heroes" program indicates Russian leadership's efforts to enhance human capital and integrate military leadership, suggesting long-term C2 development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

  • Air Defense: Under severe pressure from continuous KABs and missile threats. The effectiveness of AD systems remains critical but munitions expenditure is high. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Strained by the constant need to respond to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Operations: Maintain high effectiveness in deep strikes (SBU "Operation Pavutina") and tactical engagements (93rd OMBR, 24th OSHB "Aidar"). This capability is a critical asymmetric advantage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture in Kharkiv and potentially conducting limited counter-incursions in border regions (Tetkino). Continues to utilize specialized units (snipers) for targeted operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • Critical Deep Strike: SBU's FPV drone strike on a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber at Belaya airfield (Irkutsk) is a major strategic success, demonstrating unprecedented deep strike capabilities and forcing Russia to divert/relocate high-value assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Enhanced Counter-Drone Capabilities: 24th OSHB "Aidar" receiving a multi-channel EW system directly enhances their survivability against Russian drones and potentially improves their own drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Tactical Drone Effectiveness: 93rd OMBR's continued success in destroying Russian transport on the Eastern Front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks:
    • Increased Civilian Casualties: One fatality and 16 injured in Kharkiv due to KAB strikes, including a child. This is a severe humanitarian setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Targeting of Non-Military Civilian Sites: Russian targeting of a recreational park and children's railway signifies an escalation in targeting civilian morale directly. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Casualties in Belgorod (Russian claim): 4 casualties reported by Russia, indicating Ukrainian cross-border fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian claim, LOW for impact on Ukrainian ops)
    • Disrupted Body Exchange: Russian claims of Ukraine failing to engage in body exchange talks, though potentially disinformation, create a negative narrative regardless of veracity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the narrative, LOW for veracity until confirmed)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

  • Air Defense Munitions: Continued high expenditure due to persistent aerial attacks. The extreme range of SBU's FPV drone suggests a complex and potentially expensive system, requiring significant R&D and production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Response Resources: Severe strain on emergency and medical services in Kharkiv due to increased casualties and widespread damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Intel/Ops for Deep Strikes: Sustained deep strike campaigns (like Operation Pavutina) require significant intelligence, logistical, and technical resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

  • Russian Propaganda (Internal & External):
    • Blaming Ukraine for Body Exchange Failure: TASS and milbloggers are consistently pushing the narrative that Ukraine disrupted body exchange talks, a clear effort to shift blame, undermine Ukrainian credibility, and potentially demoralize Ukrainian society. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Highlighting "Heroism" and "Successes": Russian milbloggers (Poddybny, Операция Z) continue to disseminate content highlighting Russian military efforts (e.g., "Time of Heroes" program, combat videos near Tetkino), aimed at boosting domestic morale and justifying operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations:
    • Transparency on Russian Atrocities: Ukrainian officials (Oleh Syniehubov) are immediately reporting on KAB strikes on civilian areas, providing real-time video/photo evidence of civilian casualties and damage, directly countering Russian narratives of "precision strikes." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Highlighting Strategic Successes: SBU's release of the Tu-22M3 FPV strike video is a powerful information operation, demonstrating advanced capabilities, boosting morale, and signaling reach deep into Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Acknowledging Support: "Aidar" battalion thanking "Оперативний ЗСУ" subscribers for REB donation demonstrates civilian support and unit effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

  • Negative Impact: The escalation of KAB strikes on Kharkiv, particularly on civilian recreational areas, will severely impact civilian morale due to increased casualties and psychological trauma. The reported fatality of a young woman amplifies this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Positive Impact: The confirmation of the SBU's deep strike on a Tu-22M3 bomber is a significant morale boost for Ukrainian forces and the population, demonstrating a concrete ability to strike back at Russian strategic assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Impact: The Russian disinformation campaign regarding body exchanges, if not effectively countered, could create distrust and frustration among Ukrainian families awaiting news of their missing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

  • Russian disinformation regarding body exchanges could aim to undermine international trust in Ukraine as a negotiating partner, though the clear targeting of civilians in Kharkiv provides a strong counter-narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • The unprecedented deep strike on a strategic bomber by SBU will likely garner international attention and may influence future military aid discussions, highlighting Ukraine's innovative asymmetric capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • The news about Starlink and Elon Musk in the White House (RBC-Ukraine) points to ongoing high-level discussions regarding critical communication infrastructure, which has direct military implications for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for discussion, LOW for specific outcome)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  • MLCOA 1: Escalated Retaliatory Strikes and Continued Urban Bombardment with Focus on Psychological Impact: Russia will intensify KAB and missile strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and potentially Sumy/Poltava, with an increased focus on civilian targets (e.g., parks, residential areas) to maximize terror and drain Ukrainian emergency resources. This is a direct response to the successful Ukrainian deep strike on the Tu-22M3.

    • Confidence: HIGH
    • Indicators: Immediate increase in Kharkiv casualties, explicit targeting of recreational park, missile threat in Sumy/Poltava, Russian claims of "cruise missile carriers" flying again.

  • MLCOA 2: Intensified Ground Offensives on Sumy and Donetsk Axes, with Enhanced Counter-UAV and Anti-Air Measures: Russian forces will push harder on the Sumy axis, attempting to exploit tactical gains and encircle Sumy city, while maintaining high pressure on the Donetsk axis. They will continue to develop and deploy anti-drone teams and improve their air defense in response to Ukrainian drone successes, including using their own FPVs as air-to-air interceptors.

    • Confidence: HIGH
    • Indicators: Continued Russian ground advances (from previous report), Russian claims of combat near Tetkino, Russian claims of FPVs shooting down Ukrainian drones.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  • MDCOA 1: Strategic Breakthrough on a New Axis (Sumy) or Resumption of Kyiv Offensive, Supported by Overwhelming Air Dominance and Coordinated Deep Sabotage and Cyber Attacks: Russia attempts a rapid, decisive breakthrough on the Sumy axis, potentially using overwhelming combined arms force and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and air defenses. Alternatively, they could feint a new offensive to draw reserves while renewing a significant thrust towards Kyiv from Belarus or other northern axes. This would be coupled with intensified cyber attacks and sabotage to disrupt Ukrainian C2 and logistics.

    • Confidence: MEDIUM (Unchanged)
    • Indicators: Sustained high rate of KABs and missile strikes on deep targets, large-scale troop movements on new axes (not yet observed at this level).

  • MDCOA 2: Sustained and Crippling Strikes on Critical National Infrastructure (Energy, Logistics Hubs, Strategic Aviation) to Collapse Ukrainian Civilian Resilience and War-Making Capacity: Russia launches a coordinated, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's remaining energy infrastructure ahead of winter, major logistics hubs (rail, road junctions), and strategic aviation assets (airfields, repair facilities). This would aim to directly cripple Ukraine's ability to sustain military operations and civilian life.

    • Confidence: MEDIUM (Increased due to recent claimed deep strike on Drohobych and active strategic bombers)
    • Indicators: Intensified missile/drone attacks beyond current levels, targeting of energy infrastructure components not previously hit, significant increase in Russian strategic bomber activity.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):

    • Immediate Retaliation/Sustained Attacks: Expect continued, possibly intensified, KAB and missile strikes on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Poltava Oblasts. High probability of further Russian retaliatory deep strikes following the Tu-22M3 destruction.
    • Ground Pressure: Continued tactical ground engagements, particularly on the Donetsk and Sumy axes. Increased Russian counter-drone operations.
    • Decision Point (UKR): Prioritize air defense assets to protect key urban centers (Kharkiv, Sumy) and critical infrastructure. Expedite deployment of countermeasures to Russian anti-drone tactics.

  • Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):

    • Decision Point (UKR): Assess the full extent of damage to the Tu-22M3 bomber and its impact on Russian strategic strike capabilities. Evaluate potential for further SBU deep strikes and the necessary resources. Re-evaluate and adapt ground force deployments on the Sumy axis.

  • Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):

    • Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike campaign on Russian military-industrial complex and logistics. Continue to optimize air defense deployments based on evolving Russian targeting patterns. Intensify intelligence collection on Russian strategic aviation and potential dispersal efforts.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Reinforce and Optimize Air Defense for Urban Centers (Immediate):

    • Action: Immediately re-prioritize and reinforce air defense systems, especially SHORAD and mobile fire groups, to protect Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Poltava from continued KAB and missile attacks. Deploy active and passive defenses around critical civilian infrastructure like recreational parks if possible. Continue aggressive counter-battery fire.
    • Justification: Russian forces are deliberately targeting civilian areas to inflict casualties and psychological impact, requiring enhanced immediate protection.
    • Intelligence Gap: Precise real-time air defense munition expenditure rates in affected areas.
    • Collection Requirement: Automated tracking of AD engagements and munition usage.

  2. Develop and Counter Russian Anti-Drone Tactics (Urgent):

    • Action: Disseminate intelligence on Russian "hunter-killer" anti-drone teams (e.g., "Anvar" Spetsnaz) and claimed FPV-on-FPV engagements to all Ukrainian drone operating units. Develop and implement immediate counter-tactics: enhanced operational security for drone teams (dispersal, camouflage, mobility, redundant launch sites), dynamic EW deployment, and training for FPV-on-FPV counter engagements. Provide more multi-channel REB systems.
    • Justification: Russian forces are actively adapting to counter Ukraine's drone superiority, threatening a critical asymmetric advantage.
    • Intelligence Gap: Specific frequencies and jamming techniques used by Russian EW systems and operational procedures of their anti-drone teams.
    • Collection Requirement: SIGINT on Russian drone C2 and EW systems, HUMINT from captured personnel.

  3. Capitalize on Deep Strike Success and Prepare for Retaliation (Urgent):

    • Action: Conduct rapid, detailed BDA on the Tu-22M3 at Belaya airfield (satellite imagery, OSINT analysis) to confirm damage and operational impact. Publicize the success widely to boost morale and demonstrate capability. Simultaneously, prepare for heightened Russian retaliatory strikes across Ukraine, particularly on strategic infrastructure.
    • Justification: The SBU's deep strike is a significant strategic success but will provoke severe retaliation, requiring preemptive defensive measures.
    • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA and long-term operational impact on the Tu-22M3.
    • Collection Requirement: High-resolution satellite imagery of Belaya airfield, monitoring Russian strategic aviation movements and activity.

  4. Counter Russian Information Operations on Body Exchange (Ongoing):

    • Action: Proactively and transparently communicate Ukraine's official stance and actions regarding prisoner and body exchanges to both domestic and international audiences. Provide verifiable evidence and consistently refute Russian disinformation.
    • Justification: Russia is leveraging humanitarian issues for information warfare, aiming to undermine Ukrainian credibility and international support.
    • Intelligence Gap: Full scope of Russian information narratives targeting Ukrainian society.
    • Collection Requirement: Comprehensive monitoring of Russian state media and milblogger channels.

END REPORT

Previous Report (2025-06-07 15:43:10Z)