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Situation Report

2025-06-07 15:00:23Z
Previous Report (2025-06-07 14:45:33Z)

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 07 JUN 25 / 15:00 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 07 JUN 25 / 14:42 ZULU - 07 JUN 25 / 15:00 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

  • AOR Update: Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City - Kyivskyi and Osnovyanskyi, Shevchenkivskyi Districts, suburbs, Kommunar factory, Velikoburlutsky, Kupyansk directions), Volyn Oblast (Lutsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, oblast border, Kryvyi Rih, Pavlohrad, Pleshcheevka, Malinovka, Charivne, Mezheva community, Synelnykove district), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (14 populated areas, Zaporozhye direction, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Chervonne, Malinovka), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast (Sumy direction, Yunakivka, Kondratovka, Alexandropol, Klymentove, Uhroyidy, Novonikolaevka, Pisarevka, Khotin, Vorochina, Nizhnya Duvanka), Russian Federation (Kursk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city (Gorbushkin Dvor, VDNKh), Saratov Oblast - Engels; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol), Southern Donetsk Direction (Fedorivka, Perbudova, Komar, Maksimovka, Razdolnoye, Vorskresenka, Poddubnoye, Velyka Novosilka, Chasov Yar), Konstantinovka direction (Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, Tarasovka, Ignatovka, Zarya), Siversk direction (Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Ivano-Daryivka, Pereizne), Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis, Toretsk axis, Novopavlivka axis, Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka), Kupyansk axis (Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka), Kherson axis (Mykolayivka), Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction.
  • Key Terrain (Kharkiv City): Previous reports indicated 3 fatalities and 22 injured. New reports confirm 4 additional KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes in Kharkiv, specifically in the Shevchenkivskyi district. One fatality and several injured are now confirmed in central Kharkiv. This raises the total confirmed fatalities in Kharkiv today to 4, and injuries to over 22. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Key Terrain (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Air raid siren has been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Key Terrain (Russian Internal): Russian MoD continues to push narrative of Ukraine delaying POW/body exchange. Ukrainian sources refute Russian media's false reporting on Kstovo (Lukoil) refinery fire, asserting it is a modern, upgraded facility, not an old bitumen plant, emphasizing the strategic impact of the strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Key Terrain (Kupyansk Axis): Russian milbloggers ("Военкоры Русской Весны") claim Russian army is expanding a strong bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River and advancing towards Kupyansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

  • Environmental Factors: The confirmed additional KAB strikes and reported fatality/injuries in Kharkiv will further strain emergency services and exacerbate environmental hazards from debris and potential fires. The clarification on the Kstovo (Lukoil) refinery's modern status (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, 14:56Z) implies a larger and more impactful industrial incident, with potentially greater environmental consequences from the fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

  • Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): Continue to face KAB launches on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Forces (Coordination Headquarters for POWs): Continue to counter Russian disinformation on body exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed additional KAB launches on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Forces (Ground - Kupyansk Axis): Pro-Russian milbloggers claim expansion of a bridgehead on the Oskol River and advance towards Kupyansk, suggesting continued ground offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Forces (Logistics): Russian MoD continues to push the narrative of Ukraine delaying body exchanges, implying Russian logistical readiness for such transfers, despite Ukrainian counter-claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Zaporizhzhia Oblast air raid alert lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

  • Capabilities:
    • Aerial (Multi-Modal Saturation): Confirmed additional KAB strikes on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Ground (Offensive Consolidation/Local Offensive): Russian milbloggers claim expansion of a bridgehead on the Oskol River and advancement towards Kupyansk, suggesting continued offensive capabilities in the Kupyansk axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Logistics: The Russian MoD continues to emphasize its readiness for body/POW exchanges, highlighting its logistical capacity for such operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Intentions:
    • Kharkiv: To continue to cause maximum civilian casualties, terrorize the population, and degrade civilian and military-industrial infrastructure through aerial bombardment. The targeting of Shevchenkivskyi district and central Kharkiv indicates intent to strike diverse urban areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Kupyansk Axis: To establish and expand a strategic bridgehead on the Oskol River and advance towards Kupyansk, aiming for significant territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Overall: To continue to deplete Ukrainian air defense munitions through saturation attacks, while pressing ground offensives where tactical opportunities arise, using a multi-domain approach. Maintain and project an image of internal stability and military effectiveness, while suppressing dissent and leveraging internal issues to demoralize Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Courses of Action (COA):
    • COA 1 (MLCOA - Continued Sustained and Diversified Saturation Attacks on Key Urban Centers and Industrial Targets, Integrated with Internal Sabotage Operations, with Heightened Retaliation for Deep Strikes): Confirmed additional KAB strikes on Kharkiv, including new districts, reinforce this MLCOA. The continued Russian MoD pushing disinformation on body exchanges indicates their commitment to this IO strategy.
      • Confidence: HIGH
      • Indicators: New KAB strikes on Kharkiv (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 14:48Z, 14:49Z, 14:57Z, 14:59Z).
    • COA 2 (Ground Offensive Intensification on Key Axes, particularly Sumy, Kupyansk, and Donetsk, with Reinforced Combined Arms and Precision Targeting): Russian milbloggers claiming expansion of a bridgehead on the Oskol River and advancement towards Kupyansk confirms continued ground offensive in this area.
      • Confidence: HIGH
      • Indicators: Операция Z (14:49Z, 14:50Z, 14:51Z) claims of Kupyansk advances.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • Intensified Diversified Saturation in Kharkiv: The new KAB strikes affecting additional districts (Shevchenkivskyi) and central Kharkiv indicate an expansion of targeted areas within the city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasis on Ground Consolidation and Localized Offensives with Integrated FPV: Russian milbloggers' claims of expanding a bridgehead on the Oskol River and advancing towards Kupyansk suggest a tactical adaptation to secure and develop offensive positions along key riverine obstacles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aggressive Information Warfare (Exploiting Internal Conflicts, Justifying Attacks & Disinformation, Historical Revisionism): Continued Russian MoD pushing disinformation on body exchanges, even after Ukrainian refutations, indicates persistent and adapted IO tactics. Russian media's attempt to downplay the Kstovo refinery as an "old bitumen plant" is an adaptation to control the narrative of Ukrainian deep strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv suggest a sustained supply of guided aerial bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian MoD's continued emphasis on Ukraine's alleged delay in body exchanges implicitly demonstrates Russia's logistical capability to manage and transport large numbers of deceased personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian sources refuting Russian claims about the Kstovo (Lukoil) refinery fire being an "old bitumen plant" indicates an ongoing effort to expose Russian attempts to downplay the logistical impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • Russian C2 demonstrates continued effective coordination for aerial attacks on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian C2 in information operations remains highly centralized and coordinated, as evidenced by the consistent messaging on body exchanges and attempts to control the narrative around the Kstovo fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Effective integration of ground and propaganda efforts regarding the Kupyansk axis suggests coordinated C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

  • Air Defense: Continue to operate under pressure in Kharkiv, responding to KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Remain engaged in Kharkiv, with efforts complicated by new strikes and casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Forces (Coordination Headquarters for POWs): Maintain a strong and consistent counter-disinformation posture against Russian claims regarding body exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Information Warfare: Actively engaged in countering Russian disinformation regarding the nature and impact of the Kstovo refinery fire, demonstrating readiness to protect the information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • Effective refutation of Russian "body exchange" disinformation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Successful deep strike on Kstovo (Lukoil) refinery: Ukrainian sources confirm it was a modern, upgraded facility, reinforcing the strategic impact of the strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks:
    • Confirmed additional civilian fatality and several injured in Kharkiv due to new KAB strikes, increasing the human toll. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Continued Russian claims of ground advances in the Kupyansk axis (Oskol bridgehead, advance towards Kupyansk), suggesting potential tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Persistent Russian disinformation campaign regarding body exchanges continues to be a challenge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

  • Air Defense Munitions: Continued high demand for air defense munitions in Kharkiv due to sustained KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Response Resources: The new strikes and casualties in Kharkiv further strain emergency and medical resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Dissemination and OPSEC: Continued need for robust resources to counter Russian disinformation and narratives, particularly regarding the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes and humanitarian issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

  • Russian Propaganda:
    • Targeting Ukrainian Morale/Leadership/Societal Cohesion: Russian MoD (Colonelcassad, 14:53Z) continues to push the narrative of Ukraine delaying POW/body exchanges, aiming to demoralize and sow distrust.
    • Boasting of Military Success/Justifying Attacks: Russian milbloggers (Операция Z, 14:49Z) are actively claiming ground advances and expansion of bridgeheads near Kupyansk, aiming to project Russian offensive momentum and justify ground actions.
    • Downplaying Ukrainian Deep Strike Success: Russian media is attempting to misrepresent the Kstovo (Lukoil) refinery as an "old bitumen plant" to minimize the perceived impact of the Ukrainian deep strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations:
    • Refuting Disinformation: Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, 14:45Z, 14:49Z) are rapidly providing updates on Kharkiv strikes and confirming civilian impact, directly refuting any Russian attempts to deny or downplay. Ukrainian sources (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, 14:56Z) are actively refuting Russian attempts to downplay the significance of the Kstovo refinery strike by correcting false information about its age and capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

  • The confirmed additional KAB strikes and reported fatality/injuries in Kharkiv will further negatively impact civilian morale and increase anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • The ongoing Russian disinformation campaign regarding body exchanges continues to be a direct attack on the emotional well-being of Ukrainian families and soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Claims of Russian ground advances in the Kupyansk axis will likely increase public concern and anxiety in the affected areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

  • Russian milbloggers continue to exploit US political dynamics (e.g., Trump/Musk relationship) to sow discord and undermine international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  • MLCOA 1: Continued Sustained and Diversified Saturation Attacks on Key Urban Centers and Industrial Targets, Integrated with Internal Sabotage Operations, with Heightened Retaliation for Deep Strikes: Russia will continue its campaign of massed aerial strikes against Ukrainian cities, including Kharkiv, with ongoing use of KABs. The recent confirmation of new strikes in Kharkiv reinforces this. Russia will also continue to engage in information warfare to justify these strikes and deflect blame.

    • Confidence: HIGH
    • Indicators: New KAB strikes on Kharkiv (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 14:48Z, 14:49Z, 14:57Z, 14:59Z). Russian MoD disinformation (Colonelcassad, 14:53Z).

  • MLCOA 2: Ground Offensive Intensification on Key Axes, particularly Sumy, Kupyansk, and Donetsk, with Reinforced Combined Arms and Precision Targeting: Russian forces will maintain and attempt to expand their ground pressure, particularly along the Kupyansk axis, aiming to establish and consolidate bridgeheads and advance on strategic settlements.

    • Confidence: HIGH
    • Indicators: Операция Z (14:49Z, 14:50Z, 14:51Z) claims of Kupyansk advances.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  • MDCOA 1: Strategic Breakthrough on a New Axis (Sumy), Supported by Overwhelming Air and Ground Coordination and Deep Sabotage, and Cyber Attacks: No new indicators directly increasing confidence in this MDCOA within this reporting period, but the continued pressure on Sumy and Kupyansk remains a concern.

    • Confidence: MEDIUM
    • Indicators: (No new indicators for this reporting period)

  • MDCOA 2: Sustained and Crippling Strikes on Critical National Infrastructure (Energy/Logistics Hubs) to Collapse Ukrainian Civilian Resilience, Coupled with Targeted Assassinations and Cyber Warfare: The Russian attempt to downplay the Kstovo refinery strike indicates its significance, suggesting Russia recognizes the vulnerability of its own industrial base to such attacks and may choose to reciprocate against similar targets in Ukraine.

    • Confidence: MEDIUM
    • Indicators: Ukrainian refutation of Russian claims regarding Kstovo refinery (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, 14:56Z).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):
    • Immediate Retaliation: Confirmed ongoing KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue, increasing civilian casualties and damage.
    • Ground Pressure: Intensified tactical ground engagements on the Kupyansk axis, with Russian forces attempting to consolidate new positions.
    • Information Warfare Escalation: Continued Russian disinformation on body exchanges and attempts to control narratives around deep strikes.
    • Decision Point (UKR): Continue rapid response to KAB strikes in Kharkiv. Monitor and verify Russian claims of advances on the Kupyansk axis; if confirmed, re-evaluate defensive posture and potential counter-attack opportunities. Maintain aggressive counter-disinformation efforts, especially regarding the Kstovo refinery strike and body exchanges.
  • Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):
    • Decision Point (UKR): Assess the impact of Russian ground advances on the Kupyansk axis and determine if additional defensive reinforcements are required. Continue detailed battle damage assessment of Russian industrial targets.
  • Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):
    • Decision Point (UKR): Re-evaluate the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strikes in deterring or disrupting Russian operations. Adjust strategic messaging based on these findings.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Prioritize Civilian Protection and Emergency Response in Kharkiv (Immediate):

    • Action: Immediately increase and redeploy available DSNS assets and medical teams to Kharkiv's Shevchenkivskyi and central districts to manage new casualties and damage. Ensure full situational awareness of impacted areas and coordinate with local authorities for rapid civilian assistance and shelter.
    • Justification: New KAB strikes and confirmed fatalities/injuries highlight the urgent and ongoing need for civilian protection and emergency response.
    • Intelligence Gap: Real-time detailed damage assessments and precise casualty figures from the latest strikes.
    • Collection Requirement: Continuous imagery (UAV, ground-based) and HUMINT from local emergency services.

  2. Reinforce Defensive Posture on Kupyansk Axis (Immediate):

    • Action: Conduct immediate ground reconnaissance and intelligence gathering (HUMINT, OSINT) to verify Russian claims of bridgehead expansion on the Oskol River and advances towards Kupyansk. If confirmed, rapidly deploy additional anti-tank and FPV drone assets to threatened sectors. Prepare contingency plans for localized counter-attacks.
    • Justification: Russian claims of expanding a bridgehead on the Oskol River represent a significant potential threat to Kupyansk and the overall eastern front. Proactive defensive reinforcement is critical.
    • Intelligence Gap: Precise mapping of new Russian ground force dispositions and intentions on the Oskol River and towards Kupyansk.
    • Collection Requirement: Tactical SIGINT/IMINT for enemy movements and concentrations. HUMINT from forward positions.

  3. Intensify Counter-Disinformation on Kstovo Refinery and Body Exchanges (Ongoing):

    • Action: Continue to rapidly and unequivocally refute Russian disinformation regarding the Kstovo (Lukoil) refinery, emphasizing its modern status and strategic importance to highlight the impact of the Ukrainian strike. Maintain constant vigilance and immediate refutation of Russian claims regarding POW and body exchanges, using official Ukrainian sources and verified facts.
    • Justification: Russia's attempts to control the narrative around significant Ukrainian deep strikes and humanitarian issues directly impact international perception and Ukrainian morale. Proactive counter-IO is crucial.
    • Intelligence Gap: Assessment of the effectiveness of Russian counter-narratives and Ukrainian refutations on various target audiences.
    • Collection Requirement: Continuous OSINT monitoring of Russian state media and milblogger channels.

END REPORT

Previous Report (2025-06-07 14:45:33Z)