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Situation Report

2025-05-08 18:05:14Z
Previous Report (2025-05-08 17:35:00Z)

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 8, 2025, 18:04 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains intensely kinetic, defying any notion of a "ceasefire." Ground combat is particularly fierce on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka axes. Reports of Ukrainian attacks and contested fighting persist in the Kursk border region, specifically near Tetkino and Novy Put'.

Russian aerial activity continues unabated across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, primarily involving "Shahed" drones and ballistic missiles. Recent reports confirmed rapid-moving targets in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts, with a missile tracked towards Kremenchuk.

Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian industrial and military facilities are confirmed in Saransk, Tula Oblast, and reportedly military airfields in Moscow and Kaluga Oblasts, causing temporary disruptions to Russian air traffic.

A tragic humanitarian update includes a reported civilian fatality in Primorskoye, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an FPV drone attack. Civilian casualties are also reported in Kyiv and Russian border regions.

Diplomatic and information operations continue to evolve. Ukraine has received €1 billion from the EU, derived from frozen Russian central bank asset profits. Donald Trump's suggestion of seeking China's assistance in settling the conflict and his claim of "good progress" towards a peace agreement are significant political developments. Discussions about potential peace negotiations continue, with the Polish Foreign Minister suggesting Turkey and China as potential mediators. Ukraine has also ratified an economic partnership agreement with the US concerning minerals.

Internal Russian issues include security incidents and ongoing information campaigns, particularly ahead of Victory Day. Russian military bloggers remain active in reporting, fundraising, and disseminating propaganda. The election of a new Pope at the Vatican is a notable global event. Continued US Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea indicates ongoing surveillance.

New significant updates and analysis from the latest messages (past few minutes):

  • Russian Soldier Fatality in Zaporizhzhia: Rybar and Центр «ВОИН» report the death of Vladislav Nikolaevich Rakhmanov, an instructor from the "VOIN" center, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to Ukrainian shelling. He reportedly died while rendering first aid to wounded comrades. This highlights the continued human cost of the conflict for Russian forces, particularly in contested areas like Zaporizhzhia. The emphasis on his role as an instructor and his attempt to aid the wounded serves a clear propaganda purpose. (Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН»)
  • Russian Claims of Advance Near Makeevka: Сливочный каприз claims Russian forces have advanced 600 meters west of Makeevka (likely in the Luhansk direction) and occupied new positions. The post includes geotagged photos and videos showing positional fighting under Ukrainian shelling. This indicates continued Russian ground efforts to gain territory despite their declared ceasefire and highlights ongoing combat in that specific area. (Сливочный каприз)
  • Greek Company Demonstrates Autonomous Coastal Defense Systems: Два майора reports on the demonstration of the "Interceptigon" system by Greek company Delian Alliance Industries at the DEFEA 2025 exhibition. The system includes autonomous unmanned surface vessels (Interceptigon N) that hide on the seabed and fixed-wing drones (Interceptigon A) that can launch from disguised ground launchers, designed for coordinated coastal defense against various threats, including landing craft, speedboats, and drones, with a focus on low observability and mass production of inexpensive disposable systems. This development is highly relevant to maritime security and defense, particularly in coastal areas susceptible to naval drone attacks, and indicates the evolving nature of coastal defense technologies. (Два майора)
  • Ukrainian GUR Special Forces Rescue Captured Comrades: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming that GUR special forces from the "Artan X" unit successfully rescued three captured reconnaissance soldiers from Russian forces (247th Guards Airborne Regiment). The Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly poisoned by an unknown chemical substance during a combat engagement and captured. Ukrainian FPV drones were used to eliminate the Russian captors attempting to move the Ukrainian soldiers to Russian territory. Two Ukrainian soldiers were guided out by a reconnaissance drone with instructions, and the third escaped on his own. The rescued soldiers reportedly returned with captured weapons and intelligence but are being treated for chemical burns. This is a significant success for Ukrainian special operations, highlighting the use of FPV drones in complex rescue missions and raising concerns about the alleged use of chemical substances by Russian forces. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • EU Allocates Additional €1 Billion for Ukrainian Arms Procurement: РБК-Україна and АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА report that the EU will allocate an additional €1 billion for the procurement of Ukrainian weapons, funded by the profits from frozen Russian assets. This decision was announced ahead of a visit by EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas and other foreign ministers to Lviv to show solidarity with Ukraine. This provides crucial financial support for Ukraine's defense industry and signifies continued EU commitment to providing military aid, likely for the production of drones and naval drones according to a Russian source. (РБК-Україна, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
  • Iran Publishes Videos of US and Coalition Actions in the Persian Gulf: STERNENKO shares a video claiming that Iran has published footage showing the actions of US and coalition forces in the Persian Gulf. While not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, this highlights ongoing tensions and surveillance activity in other strategic regions and serves as a reminder of the broader geopolitical landscape. (STERNENKO)
  • Robert Francis Prevost Elected New Pope, Takes Name Leo XIV: Numerous sources (РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) report the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new Pope, the first American pontiff. He has taken the name Leo XIV. This is a significant global religious and diplomatic event, although its direct impact on the military situation in Ukraine is unclear at this time. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
  • Russian Duma Deputy Reacts to Incident Involving Ingush Individuals: Военкор Котенок shares a post from State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov reacting to an incident in Vladimir Oblast involving Ingush individuals, condemning it as nationalism and lawlessness and vowing to seek justice. The accompanying text from another channel ("Мигранты — всё как есть") provides a contrasting, more critical perspective, suggesting hypocrisy in Delimkhanov's reaction compared to incidents involving Chechens or Ingush individuals themselves. This highlights internal social and political tensions within Russia, potentially exacerbated by the conflict and the integration of individuals from various ethnic backgrounds into the military. (Военкор Котенок, Мигранты — всё как есть)
  • Russian Claim of Destroying Ukrainian Armored Vehicles and Infantry Near Kupyansk: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming that Russian forces ("West" group of forces) destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast) before the declared ceasefire. The video reportedly used the "Groza Leska" FPV control system on fiber optics. This is a Russian claim of success on the Kupyansk direction, highlighting the continued fighting in the area and the use of advanced FPV drone technology for targeting. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
  • Civilian Fatality in Kherson Oblast Due to Shelling: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a civilian fatality in Dnepryany (Kherson Oblast) due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements in the oblast. A woman reportedly died from shrapnel near her home. This highlights the continued civilian casualties resulting from shelling in the Kherson region. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Comments on US Economic Partnership Agreement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a statement from President Zelenskyy expressing gratitude for the ratification of the economic partnership agreement with the US concerning minerals and its potential for long-term investment and cooperation. He emphasizes that this opens a new page in relations with the US. This is a positive development for Ukraine's economic future and its strategic partnership with the United States. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
  • Patriarch Kirill and Others Lay Wreath at Tomb of Unknown Soldier: Старше Эдды shares photos and text about Patriarch Kirill and others laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow on May 8th, commemorating fallen soldiers. This is part of the official Russian Victory Day commemorations and leverages historical narratives to connect the past with the present military efforts. (Старше Эдды)
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Video of Assault on Ukrainian Stronghold: Colonelcassad shares a video published by Andrey Gimbatov showing the assault on a "very strong" Ukrainian fortified position. This highlights the continued intense ground combat and the challenges faced by Russian forces in overcoming deeply entrenched Ukrainian defenses. (Colonelcassad)
  • Russian Military Blogger Reports on Potential Ukrainian Landing Near Antonovsky Bridge: Военкор Котенок reports on potential Ukrainian landing activity on the Russian-controlled left bank of the Dnieper River near the Antonovsky Bridge. He notes that Ukrainian forces previously held a bridgehead there and that while a full offensive is unlikely due to Russian fire, they may be using the declared ceasefire to rotate personnel. He also mentions Ukrainian use of aviation with guided aerial bombs (KABs) in this area and ongoing activity by drones and artillery. This suggests renewed Ukrainian efforts to maintain a presence or conduct limited operations across the Dnieper, taking advantage of tactical opportunities. (Военкор Котенок)
  • New Pope Leo XIV Begins Address with Message of Peace: ТАСС reports that the newly elected Pope Leo XIV began his address to the faithful with words about peace. This aligns with the Vatican's diplomatic efforts and its stated position on the conflict. (ТАСС)
  • Azerbaijani President Aliyev Reportedly Cancels Visit to Moscow for Victory Day: Рыбарь reports that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has reportedly canceled his visit to Moscow for the Victory Day parade, citing preparation for internal events as the formal reason but suggesting a desire to prioritize national interests and potentially signal a distance from Russia. This development, if confirmed, is diplomatically significant and could impact Russia-Azerbaijan relations. (Рыбарь)
  • Russian Poll on Overcoming Western Influence: Kotsnews shares a poll indicating that 58% of respondents believe Russia has overcome subservience to the West, viewing it as the most important achievement in the past 25 years. While the poll's methodology and representativeness are unclear, it reflects a narrative of asserting independence from the West that is prevalent in Russian state media and could be used to justify ongoing actions. (Kotsnews)
  • Russian and Kazakh Defense Ministers Discuss Bilateral Cooperation: MoD Russia shares a video of Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov meeting with his Kazakh counterpart, discussing bilateral cooperation and commemorating shared history in defeating fascism. This indicates ongoing military diplomatic engagement between Russia and Kazakhstan, with a focus on historical narratives and potential future cooperation. (MoD Russia)
  • Russian Governor Shares Story of WWII Veteran: Игорь Артамонов, a Russian Governor, shares a story about a 15-year-old girl who worked in a вагонный депо during WWII, repairing wagons. This is another example of the prevalent Russian narrative around Victory Day, focusing on the contributions of ordinary citizens to the war effort. (Игорь Артамонов)
  • WarGonzo Promotes Russian Knife Manufacturer: WarGonzo shares a post promoting the Russian knife manufacturer "SARO" and their collaboration on "Drakar" and "Krivich" knives, highlighting their quality and use by the military. This is a form of military blogger engagement with Russian industry and a way to promote products associated with the military effort. (WarGonzo)
  • Russian Military Blogger Reports on Counter-Drone Project "Hammer of Witches": WarGonzo reports on a project focused on combating Ukrainian agricultural drones ("Baba Yaga"), which are used for mining and attacking positions. The project, called "Hammer of Witches," involves providing units with tools to effectively shoot down these drones. The report also mentions repairing and repurposing captured Ukrainian drones and training operators to use them against Ukrainian positions. This highlights the significant threat posed by Ukrainian heavy drones and Russian efforts to counter and utilize them. (WarGonzo)
  • Kadyrov Meets with Aleksey Dyumin: Kadyrov_95 reports meeting with Aleksey Dyumin, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation and Secretary of the State Council. They discussed socio-economic development of the region and improving coordination between federal and regional authorities. Kadyrov describes Dyumin as a true patriot with military experience and the title of Hero of Russia. This indicates continued high-level engagement between Chechnya and the Russian federal government, potentially related to contributions to the military effort and internal stability. (Kadyrov_95)
  • Putin's Speech Before Victory Day Guests: ТАСС summarizes Putin's speech to guests arriving for the 80th anniversary of Victory. Key points include calling May 9th a sacred date, acknowledging the collective effort of various nations in defeating Nazism, stating the increasing importance of the UN, asserting the undeniable role of the USSR in the victory, and calling for global solidarity. This reinforces the Russian narrative around Victory Day and its geopolitical message. (ТАСС)
  • Ukrainian Video of Pope Leo XIV's Appearance: РБК-Україна shares a video of Pope Leo XIV's appearance on the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica, noting his speech and ongoing ceremonial events. This provides visual confirmation of the new Pope's inauguration. (РБК-Україна)
  • Alex Parker Returns Comments on "Crossfall" Trend: Alex Parker Returns shares a video and commentary referencing a "crossfall" trend that he claims to have identified earlier, suggesting that it is being done intentionally and that he is continuing to investigate it. The nature of this trend is unclear from the text alone, but it suggests a focus on symbolic or religious aspects potentially related to the conflict or internal Russian issues. (Alex Parker Returns)
  • Pope Leo XIV's First Statement Emphasizes Peace: РБК-Україна reports on Pope Leo XIV's first statement, where he emphasizes peace, calls for it among all countries and peoples, describes it as coming from the Risen Christ, and encourages believers to build bridges through dialogue and unity. This aligns with the Vatican's diplomatic stance on peace and reconciliation, particularly relevant in the context of the ongoing conflict. (РБК-Україна)
  • Ukrainian Report on Russian Soldier Captured During "Ceasefire" at Chasiv Yar: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming to show a Russian soldier captured during the "Easter ceasefire" while on an assault at Chasiv Yar. The soldier reportedly went to war for money and was unaware of propaganda terms. He allegedly expressed disappointment that the war might end before he received payment. This is a Ukrainian information operation aimed at highlighting the continued fighting despite Russian ceasefire declarations and portraying Russian soldiers as motivated solely by financial gain and lacking ideological conviction. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • Russian Decree on Rehabilitation Support for Wounded Soldiers: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on a new decree by Putin providing free travel and accommodation for family members accompanying wounded soldiers during rehabilitation. This highlights Russian efforts to provide social support for military personnel and their families, potentially aimed at boosting morale and addressing the human cost of the conflict. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Igor Strelkov's Commentary on Russian Media's Tone Towards Trump and Potential Ukrainian Offensive: Стрелков Игорь Иванович provides commentary on the changing tone of Russian state media towards Donald Trump, noting a shift from positive portrayal to acknowledging that Trump is not aligned with Russian interests. He links this to perceived failures in reaching a "deal" and expresses pessimism about Russia's ability to withstand an anticipated Ukrainian offensive, potentially supported by Western military aid. He suggests three possible directions for a Ukrainian attack: reinvasion of "old territories," a tactical landing in the south (Crimea/Dnieper mouth), or an offensive on the Donetsk direction. He emphasizes the vulnerability of Russian forces due to overextension and exhaustion. This provides a critical Russian military blogger's perspective on the strategic situation and potential future developments. (Стрелков Игорь Иванович)
  • Colonelcassad Reports on New Pope and Victory Day Greetings: Colonelcassad reports on the election of American Cardinal Robert Prevost as Pope Leo XIV, offering a brief assessment of his potential impact on Russia-Vatican relations. He also shares a video of Russian special forces intelligence officers congratulating on the 80th anniversary of Victory in WWII, reinforcing the Victory Day narrative within the military context. (Colonelcassad)
  • Alex Parker Returns Criticizes Zelenskyy: Alex Parker Returns shares a video titled "Military Dictator Zelenskyy. Results," indicating a negative portrayal and likely criticism of the Ukrainian President. This is part of the ongoing information war. (Alex Parker Returns)
  • Ukrainian Unit Claims Destruction of Russian Assault Group near Pokrovsk: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming that two Ukrainian soldiers with drone support from the 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" destroyed a Russian assault group of five soldiers advancing in a vehicle on the Pokrovsk direction. This highlights continued intense fighting on this key axis and the effective use of drones and small infantry units in countering Russian assaults. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
  • Ukrainian Air Force Warns of Tactical Aviation Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about the activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern direction and the threat of aerial weapons for frontline oblasts. This indicates continued Russian air activity and potential for strikes. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
  • Lithuania Withdraws from Anti-Personnel Mine Convention: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports that the Lithuanian Parliament has decided to denounce the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines, citing the deteriorating security situation and increased military threats from Russia and Belarus. They note that other bordering countries (Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Finland) are also withdrawing or in the process, indicating a shared regional concern and willingness to use all means for defense. This signifies a significant shift in the defense posture of NATO members bordering Russia and highlights the perceived threat. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
  • Russian Governor Shares Story of WWII Veteran Pilot: Глеб Никитин, a Russian Governor, shares a video and story about a 102-year-old WWII veteran pilot, highlighting his combat experience and continued public engagement. This is another element of the Russian Victory Day commemoration, emphasizing the longevity and contributions of veterans. (Глеб Никитин)
  • Pope Leo XIV's First Address Focuses on Peace and Building Bridges: РБК-Україна provides further details on Pope Leo XIV's first address, emphasizing his message of peace, disarming peace, and the need to build bridges through dialogue and unity. This reinforces the Vatican's stance and its potential role in seeking peaceful resolutions. (РБК-Україна)
  • Zelenskyy Congratulates New Pope, Highlights Vatican's Position on Aggression: Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share messages congratulating Pope Leo XIV, expressing appreciation for the Vatican's stance on international law, condemnation of Russian aggression, and protection of civilians. Zelenskyy hopes for continued moral and spiritual support for Ukraine's efforts towards justice and lasting peace. This highlights Ukraine's engagement with the Vatican and its emphasis on the Vatican's position regarding the conflict. (Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
  • Ukraine Awards "Hero of Ukraine" to Su-25 Pilot: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that a Su-25 pilot, Colonel Ihor Parkhomenko, has been awarded the title "Hero of Ukraine." He returned to combat duty after the death of his son, also a Hero of Ukraine, and continues to fly combat missions with his son's photo. This highlights the dedication and sacrifice of Ukrainian military personnel and serves as a powerful narrative for national morale. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Ukrainian Source Claims Mobile Internet Disconnection Across European Russia Tomorrow: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS claims that mobile internet will be disconnected across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow, affecting 60% of the territory and disrupting various services. While this is a significant claim and needs verification, it suggests potential large-scale security measures by Russia, possibly related to Victory Day or perceived threats. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
  • Russian Military Blogger Assesses New Pope: Военкор Котенок provides an assessment of the new Pope, viewing him as a moderate and suggesting that Trump's actions may have hindered the election of a more conservative candidate. This indicates Russian interest in the new Pope's potential impact on international relations and the conflict. (Военкор Котенок)
  • Russian Special Unit Claims Elimination of Ukrainian Personnel in Border Forests: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports that a Russian special unit "Anvar" is continuing to eliminate Ukrainian personnel in the forests of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts bordering Russia. They claim to be using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones. This indicates continued cross-border activity and Russian efforts to prevent Ukrainian infiltration. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
  • Putin Congratulates New Pope: ТАСС reports that Putin has congratulated the new Pope Leo XIV, expressing confidence in the development of cooperation based on Christian values and hoping for constructive dialogue. This indicates official Russian engagement with the Vatican and a desire for continued relations. (ТАСС)
  • Ukrainian Air Force Reports KAB Launches Towards Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast. This indicates continued Russian aerial strikes on this region. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
  • Russian Military Blogger Reports Continued Fighting and Ukrainian Counterattacks on Southern Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad, citing Воин DV, reports that yesterday the enemy attempted counterattacks on Russian positions on the Southern Donetsk direction, but they were repelled with significant losses for Ukraine. Russian forces continued their offensive, occupying new areas and striking Ukrainian rear areas and artillery. The report states that in accordance with Putin's order, all combat actions were stopped by the "Vostok" grouping from 00:00 on May 8th. Despite this, the report claims the enemy is not observing the ceasefire and is using heavy artillery and drones to provoke a response. Specific claimed Russian advances and destruction of Ukrainian assets (groups, ammunition, evacuation group, artillery) are detailed. This highlights continued intense fighting in this area despite the declared ceasefire and conflicting reports on adherence to it. (Colonelcassad, Воин DV)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a focal point of intense ground combat. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" claims destruction of a Russian assault group here using drones.
  • Lyman Direction: Intense ground combat continues.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: Intense ground combat continues.
  • Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Novy Put'): Contested fighting continues with claimed renewed Ukrainian attacks involving armor and mobile groups on quadricycles. Russian forces claim to be repelling assaults and claim to have captured Ukrainian assault troops, including females, near Tetkino. Russian military bloggers claim to have shot down Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones with FPV drones in the area. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones.
  • Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: Subjected to a significant Russian ballistic missile and multi-phased drone attack yesterday, resulting in civilian fatalities and injuries. Air raid all clear has been issued. Center of Kyiv to be blocked tomorrow due to foreign delegations.
  • Saransk (Mordovia, Russia): Targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, reportedly striking industrial facilities ("Saranskkabel" and JSC "Optical Fiber Systems").
  • Tula Oblast (Russia): Reportedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attack on the "Splav" plant.
  • Moscow Oblast (Russia) (Kubinka, Moscow airports): Reportedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attack on the Kubinka military airfield. Temporary restrictions and disruptions at Moscow airports due to attacks.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Primorskoye): Civilian fatality in Primorskoye due to an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. Russian soldier fatality reported due to Ukrainian shelling. Ukrainian authorities are actively commemorating fallen soldiers in the oblast. Ukrainian Su-25 pilot, a Hero of Ukraine, operates in the region.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Troitskoye, Southern Donetsk direction, Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk): Intense ground combat continues across these key axes. Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Troitskoye. Russian sources claim significant advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. Ukrainian 65th Mechanized Brigade claims destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 in the area. Russian military blogger shares video of assault on a Ukrainian stronghold. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" claims destruction of a Russian assault group near Pokrovsk. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim continued fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Donetsk direction despite a declared ceasefire, with specific claimed Russian advances and destruction of Ukrainian assets.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Lyptsi, Kupyansk): Ukrainian forces have liberated a forest area near Lyptsi, inflicting over 1500 enemy casualties. Significant demining efforts are underway in the oblast. Russian forces claim to be destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk using FPV drones.
  • Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (Demyanki): Civilian injuries after a Ukrainian drone attack on a vehicle in Demyanki. Russian Governor claims repelling a massive Ukrainian strike with over 140 aerial targets, including a cruise missile.
  • Poltava Oblast: Missile tracked towards Kremenchuk, triggering air raid alerts.
  • Sumy Oblast: Rapid-moving targets detected, course southwest. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches towards the oblast.
  • Black Sea: US Navy P-8A Poseidon conducting reconnaissance.
  • Kherson Oblast (Nova Kakhovka, Dnepryany): Reported civilian fatality in Dnepryany due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge. Ukrainian aviation is reportedly working on the southern direction, targeting personnel, command posts, and boats.
  • Luhansk Oblast (Makeevka): Russian forces claim an advance of 600 meters west of Makeevka and occupied new positions.
  • India-Pakistan Border (Jammu and Kashmir): Pakistan reportedly attacked military bases in Jammu and Kashmir.
  • Persian Gulf: Iran publishes videos of US and coalition actions.
  • Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian forces are defending against Russian assaults. Ukrainian sources claim to have captured a Russian soldier here during the declared ceasefire.
  • Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts (Border Forests): Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in these bordering forests, using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones.
  • European Russia: Ukrainian source claims potential large-scale mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part tomorrow.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

  • Drone Activity: Widespread and ongoing Russian drone activity across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Ukrainian drone attacks confirmed targeting industrial facilities in Saransk and reportedly in Tula Oblast and military airfields in Moscow Oblast and Kaluga Oblast, causing temporary flight restrictions. Ukrainian SOF reportedly used FPV drones to rescue captured comrades and eliminate Russian soldiers. Ukrainian FPV drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade claimed destruction of Russian equipment in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian mobile groups on quadricycles near Tetkino are being destroyed by Russian drone operators. Russian military bloggers are requesting donations for drones and drone detectors for forces on the Kursk front. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video claiming Russian FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian shelters and UAV control points. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian FPV drone operators targeting Russian positions on the Svatove direction. Civilian fatality in Primorskoye, Zaporizhzhia due to an FPV drone attack. Ukrainian 65th Mechanized Brigade claims destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 and quadricycles using FPV drones. Colonelcassad claims Russian FPV drone shot down a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone. Russian military bloggers are training operators of heavy hexacopter drones, including a captured Ukrainian "Vampire". Russian forces claim to be destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk using FPV drones. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge involves drone activity. Greek company demonstrates autonomous coastal defense systems, including unmanned surface vessels and fixed-wing drones. Russian military blogger reports on counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" targeting Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones, including shooting them down and repurposing captured ones. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using drones as part of their approach. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" claims destruction of a Russian assault group near Pokrovsk using drones.
  • Ballistic Missile Activity: Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv yesterday.
  • Cruise Missile Activity: Russian Governor of Bryansk claims one cruise missile was among the over 140 aerial targets destroyed yesterday.
  • Aviation Activity: Russian operational-tactical aviation is striking Ukrainian formations near Tetkino. Воин DV shares footage claiming to show Russian aviation using guided aerial bombs in Kharkiv Oblast. Fighterbomber shares video of an I-16 pilot, commemorating the 80th anniversary of Victory. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge involves claimed Ukrainian use of aviation with guided aerial bombs (KABs). Ukrainian aviation is reportedly working on the southern direction, including MiG-29s, targeting personnel, command posts, and boats. Ukrainian Air Force warns of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction and the threat of aerial weapons.
  • Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense artillery shelling on multiple fronts. Russian forces claim to be using artillery to counter Ukrainian attacks near Tetkino. Ukrainian fundraising for a drone unit includes support for equipment related to artillery shell casings. Басурин о главном reports Russian claims of Ukrainian shelling of Glushkovo and a temple near Tetkino from specific villages. Civilian fatality in Dnepryany, Kherson Oblast, due to Ukrainian shelling. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge involves artillery. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using artillery and MLRS as part of their approach. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim using artillery on the Southern Donetsk direction and that the enemy is using heavy artillery against them despite a declared ceasefire.
  • Naval Activity: Russian military bloggers are discussing counter-naval drone tactics and expressing concerns about the Black Sea Fleet. US Navy P-8A Poseidon conducting reconnaissance over the Black Sea. Greek company demonstrates autonomous coastal defense systems, including unmanned surface vessels designed to hide on the seabed. Ukrainian aviation is reportedly working on the southern direction, targeting boats.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

  • Ukraine-US Relations: Ukraine has ratified the economic partnership agreement with the US concerning minerals. Donald Trump states he will speak with Zelenskyy "soon". Ukrainian President Zelenskyy commented on the strategic importance of the US economic partnership agreement. Donald Trump congratulated the new Pope, the first American pontiff. Putin's assistant claims Russia and the US are moving towards a meeting of the two presidents.
  • EU Support for Ukraine: Ukraine has received €1 billion from the EU from the profits of frozen Russian central bank assets. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed continued EU support and steps for Ukraine's EU entry with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU will allocate an additional €1 billion for Ukrainian arms procurement, funded by frozen Russian assets.
  • Ukraine Conflict Resolution: Donald Trump suggests he might ask China's leadership to help with the settlement of the conflict and claims "good progress" towards a peace agreement. A Russian source (Cheniere) admits the possibility of Russian gas returning to Europe as part of a "big deal." Reports of potential US-Russia talks on restoring Russian gas supplies to Europe. Polish Foreign Minister suggests Turkey and China could replace the US as mediators. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed diplomatic efforts for a just and lasting peace with German Federal Chancellor Merz, reiterating the need for a genuine and at least 30-day ceasefire. Russian official Ushakov states Russia and the US are moving towards a meeting of the two presidents. Igor Strelkov provides commentary on perceived failures in reaching a "deal" and expects a Ukrainian offensive.
  • Vatican: Election of a new Pope, Robert Francis Prevost (Leo XIV), the first American pontiff. New Pope Leo XIV began his address with a message of peace and called for building bridges. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy congratulated the new Pope and highlighted the Vatican's stance against Russian aggression. Donald Trump congratulated the new Pope. Russian military blogger assesses the new Pope as a moderate. Putin has congratulated the new Pope.
  • Russia-Germany Relations: German Foreign Ministry posts a message in Russian on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII, emphasizing liberation and gratitude to Allied countries. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed continued German support and future partnership prospects with German Federal Chancellor Merz.
  • Russia's Historical Narrative: Russian Foreign Ministry establishes the position of Ambassador for the preservation of memorial heritage. Russian State Duma highlights efforts in protecting historical memory. Russian military bloggers are discussing Moldova's approach to historical memory and creating short films about WWII. Russian military blogger Kotsnews highlights a WWII monument and criticizes Trump's comments on Victory Day. Patriarch Kirill and others lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Russian Governor shares story of WWII veteran. Putin's speech before Victory Day guests emphasizes the sacredness of May 9th, the collective effort in victory, and the undeniable role of the USSR. Russian special forces intelligence officers share a video congratulating on the 80th anniversary of Victory.
  • Moldova: Russian military bloggers highlight Moldova's Ministry of Internal Affairs threatening fines for wearing the St. George ribbon.
  • Czech Republic: Reported vandalism of a Soviet monument in Teplice.
  • Russia-China Relations: Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasizes strong mutual support with Russia on core interests. Donald Trump suggests he might ask China for help with the Ukraine conflict. Polish Foreign Minister suggests China as a potential mediator.
  • India-Pakistan Relations: India and Pakistan reportedly engaged in a large aerial battle. Pakistan reportedly attacked military bases in Jammu and Kashmir.
  • Slovakia: Slovak Prime Minister Fico is traveling to Moscow via a southern route.
  • Palestine: Palestinian President has arrived in Moscow for Victory Day.
  • Kazakhstan: Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov met with his Kazakh counterpart to discuss bilateral cooperation and commemorate shared history in defeating fascism.
  • Azerbaijan-Russia Relations: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reportedly canceled his visit to Moscow for Victory Day, potentially signaling a distance from Russia.
  • Internal Russian Politics - Inter-ethnic Relations: Russian Duma Deputy reacts to an incident involving Ingush individuals, highlighting internal social and political tensions.
  • Iran-US Relations: Iran publishes videos of US and coalition actions in the Persian Gulf.
  • Lithuania: Parliament decides to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines, citing increased threats from Russia and Belarus.
  • Cuba and Venezuela: Presidents arrive in Moscow for Victory Day celebrations.
  • US Political Discourse on Ukraine: Igor Strelkov provides commentary on the changing tone of Russian media towards Trump and potential Western support for a Ukrainian offensive.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

  • Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities and military airfields, and civilian casualties in border regions. Disruptions to civilian air travel.
  • Pressure on Dissent: Police checking a journalist's family in Saratov based on a complaint about "imposing Western values."
  • Information Operations: Russian military bloggers are actively sharing content to support the war effort, including showcasing attacks and claiming Ukrainian losses, and fundraising. State efforts to control historical narratives. Creation of short films about WWII. Russian military bloggers are requesting donations for essential equipment (drones, thermal imagers) for forces on the Kursk front. Russian military blogger Kotsnews highlights a WWII monument and criticizes Trump's comments. Patriarch Kirill and others lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Russian Governor shares story of WWII veteran. WarGonzo promotes Russian knife manufacturer associated with the military. Russian military blogger shares video of assault on a Ukrainian stronghold. Russian poll on overcoming Western influence. Putin's speech before Victory Day guests emphasizes the Russian narrative around the holiday. Russian military blogger reports on counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" and the repurposing of captured Ukrainian drones. Russian special forces intelligence officers share a video congratulating on the 80th anniversary of Victory. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, with a focus on reporting from the front. Russian military blogger assesses the new Pope. Putin's assistant comments on potential US-Russia presidential meeting. Russian decree on rehabilitation support for wounded soldiers serves as a propaganda point. Igor Strelkov provides commentary on Russian media's portrayal of Trump and expresses pessimism about Russia's capabilities. Басурин о главном highlights the use of media facades in Moscow to welcome foreign guests for Victory Day.
  • Military Fundraising: Russian military bloggers are requesting donations for essential equipment (drones, thermal imagers) for forces on the Kursk front.
  • Military Recognition: Servicemen of the 25th Combined Arms Army (Zapad Group of Forces) presented with state awards near the line of contact. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov awarded "Golden Star" medals to commanders of the "Vostok" grouping. Russian special forces intelligence officers share a video congratulating on the 80th anniversary of Victory.
  • Socio-Political Events: Incident during a "Memory Parade" in Ulyanovsk Oblast where 12 children felt unwell. Internal social and political tensions highlighted by a Duma Deputy's reaction to an incident involving Ingush individuals. Kadyrov meets with Aleksey Dyumin to discuss regional development and coordination.
  • Defense Ministry Leadership: Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov met with his Kazakh counterpart. Igor Strelkov expresses skepticism about the new Defense Minister's ability to change the system.
  • Perception of US Relations: Russian official Ushakov comments on US-Russia relations and a potential presidential meeting. Igor Strelkov provides commentary on Russian media's portrayal of Trump and the perceived failure of a "deal."
  • Military Fatalities: Russian soldier fatality reported in Zaporizhzhia due to Ukrainian shelling. Igor Strelkov mentions the significant losses suffered by Russian forces on the Donetsk direction.
  • Potential Mobile Internet Disconnection: Ukrainian source claims potential large-scale mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part tomorrow, possibly for security reasons related to Victory Day.
  • Government Decrees: New decree by Putin provides free travel and accommodation for family members accompanying wounded soldiers during rehabilitation.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

  • Financial Support for Ukraine: Ukraine has received €1 billion from the EU from frozen Russian assets. The EU will allocate an additional €1 billion for Ukrainian arms procurement, funded by frozen Russian assets. Ukrainian fundraising efforts for military units continue.
  • Military Recognition: Ukrainian awards of "Hero of Ukraine" to key SBU leadership and unit commanders. Ukrainian military personnel training in tactical medicine. Ukrainian commemoration of fallen soldiers. Ukraine awards "Hero of Ukraine" to a Su-25 pilot.
  • Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Russian border regions. Damage to residential buildings and infrastructure. Demining efforts in Kharkiv Oblast. Civilian fatality in Primorskoye, Zaporizhzhia due to an FPV drone attack. Civilian fatality in Dnepryany, Kherson Oblast, due to Ukrainian shelling. Rescued Ukrainian soldiers are receiving treatment for chemical burns.
  • Prisoner Exchange and Support: Ukrainian SOF reportedly rescued captured comrades. Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War meeting with families of captured marines. Russian airborne forces claim to have captured Ukrainian assault troops near Tetkino, including females. Ukrainian sources claim to have captured a Russian soldier at Chasiv Yar during the declared ceasefire.
  • Military Personnel Welfare: Russian military blogger reports on Russian snipers wounded by a mine on the Kherson direction, with one fatality. New Russian decree provides free travel and accommodation for family members accompanying wounded soldiers during rehabilitation.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

  • Russia: Continuing large-scale drone and missile attacks, including ballistic missiles on Kyiv and other high-speed targets reported in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. Maintaining intense ground pressure on multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka, with claimed tactical advances and liberation of settlements (Troitskoye) and significant advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. Conducting offensive actions in Kursk Oblast with claimed success in repelling Ukrainian attempts, including armored assaults and capture of POWs (conflicting reports on territorial control), and using FAB aviation bombs and operational-tactical aviation. Employing aviation, guided aerial bombs (KABs, FAB-500s), MLRS, and artillery extensively. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment with drones (FPV and Lancet), including an American M-113 APC and a Ukrainian BMR-2 demining vehicle. Leveraging military bloggers for reporting, fundraising (requesting donations for drones, thermal imagers), and information operations, including showcasing awards ceremonies and creating films about historical events. Adapting counter-UAV tactics by advising disabling mobile internet in regions. Actively showcasing claimed successes, including destruction of Western equipment with FPV drones. Utilizing army aviation for strikes. Employing unconventional tactics such as using divers for infiltration (detected and destroyed by Ukraine) and potentially donkeys with EW systems according to Ukrainian sources highlighting Russian propaganda. Introducing a new qualification badge for assault troops. Threatening "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th. Experiencing internal security incidents and taking action against an Uzbek diaspora organization. Presenting state awards to military personnel near the line of contact. Conducting intense fighting in the Kursk border region, claiming to repel Ukrainian attacks, destroy equipment (demining vehicle, armored vehicles), and liquidate Ukrainian forces in Tetkino, and claiming capture of Ukrainian assault troops, including females. Russian military bloggers claim to have shot down Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones with FPV drones. Russian military bloggers are training operators of heavy hexacopter drones, including a captured Ukrainian "Vampire". Russian forces claim an advance of 600 meters west of Makeevka. Russian forces claim to be destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk using FPV drones. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge is being countered with mortar, UAV, and artillery fire, and claimed use of aviation with KABs. Russian military blogger reports on counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" targeting Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones, including shooting them down and repurposing captured ones. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim continued fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Donetsk direction despite a declared ceasefire, with specific claimed Russian advances and destruction of Ukrainian assets.
  • Ukraine: Conducting renewed ground offensive actions in Kursk Oblast, reportedly involving armor and armored vehicles and mobile groups on quadricycles, and attempting to take Tetkino at any cost according to Russian sources (conflicting reports on territorial control), resulting in claimed destruction of a demining vehicle and armored vehicles by Russia. Utilizing drones for deep strikes into Russian territory targeting industrial and military facilities, including military airfields (Kubinka and Shaikovka), and for tactical engagements (FPV drones), claiming destruction of Russian equipment (BMP-3, SPG, cannons, trucks) and targeting Russian shelters and UAV control points. Successfully conducting a special operation using GUR forces and FPV drones to rescue captured comrades and eliminate Russian soldiers. Repelling numerous Russian ground assaults on key axes, including facing 117 total engagements yesterday. Maintaining defenses against Russian aerial and missile attacks, with successful interceptions reported, including a ballistic missile over Kyiv, and detecting rapid-moving targets in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. Reporting on estimated daily Russian losses. Potentially deploying elite drone units to contested areas according to Russian claims. Continuing fundraising efforts for FPV drones and other equipment (thermal ponchos), with successful large-scale fundraising reported. Actively commemorating fallen soldiers and military units. Demonstrating tactical medical preparedness. Highlighting Russian casualties inflicted by Ukrainian units. Reporting on Russian activity and casualties in specific oblasts (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Bryansk). Improving medical rehabilitation facilities for military personnel. Conducting targeted strikes on individuals associated with Russian-installed administrations, as reported by Russia in Tarasivka, Kherson Oblast. Liberated a forest area near Lyptsi, Kharkiv Oblast, inflicting over 1500 enemy casualties and destroying equipment. Conducting special operations in the enemy rear, including capturing 6 Russian soldiers. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky bridge, with ongoing intense fighting, artillery preparation, and drone strikes on the Kinburn Spit and activity near the Tenderivska Spit, according to Russian sources. Training territorial defense forces with ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns. Pursuing legal accountability for war crimes and collaborating with international partners. Engaging with the Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of Prisoners of War regarding captured personnel. Training military personnel in tactical medicine (MARCH protocol). Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks, including an FPV drone attack in Zaporizhzhia, and from shelling in Kherson Oblast. Claiming destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 and quadricycles using FPV drones. Claiming to have captured a Russian soldier at Chasiv Yar during the declared ceasefire. Ukrainian aviation is reportedly working on the southern direction, including MiG-29s, targeting personnel, command posts, and boats. Ukrainian Air Force warns of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction. Lithuania's decision to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention signals potential future use of anti-personnel mines for defense against threats from Russia and Belarus. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" claims destruction of a Russian assault group near Pokrovsk using drones. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim continued fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Donetsk direction despite a declared ceasefire.
  • Rapid Support Forces (Sudan): Reportedly using kamikaze drones against Port Sudan.
  • M23 Movement (DRC): Reportedly continuing attacks despite agreements.
  • Greece: Demonstrating advanced autonomous coastal defense systems.
  • Iran: Publishing videos of US and coalition actions in the Persian Gulf.
  • Lithuania: Parliament decides to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Previous Report (2025-05-08 17:35:00Z)