Operational Intelligence Briefing - Update

Strategic and Air Warfare

Russian forces continue a high tempo of large-scale, multi-vector UAV and missile attacks targeting infrastructure and civilian areas. The latest reports confirm ongoing Shahed drone activity with updated vectors as of 02:26 UTC: one drone was over Pavlohrad, three from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad, three in western Kharkiv Oblast on a southern course, and two east of Poltava heading southeast. Additional Shahed groups were reported on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts at 03:02 UTC. Tactical aviation activity was noted in the southeastern direction at 03:16 UTC, with a threat of guided aerial weapons employment. This follows a massive combined missile and drone attack on April 24 using over 200 air targets, causing significant damage and casualties across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblast (Kostiantynivka). Russian sources claim continued KAB launches targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. A previous ballistic missile threat from the south affecting Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cleared.

Deep within Russian territory, explosions and sirens were reported in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast, on April 24, with regional authorities confirming a drone attack and emergency services working at the site of falling debris. Temporary flight restrictions were introduced and later lifted at the airport in Nizhny Novgorod. Previously, restrictions were reported at airports in Kazan, Ulyanovsk, and Nizhnekamsk, potentially indicating increased security measures or drone activity within Russian airspace. The successful Ukrainian long-range drone strike on the 51st GRAU arsenal near Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast, on April 22 continues to result in ongoing secondary detonations and extensive forest fires, confirmed by NASA FIRMS satellite data and visuals. This incident represents a significant disruption to Russian ammunition stockpiles.

Russian Ministry of Defence claimed an "Osa-AKM" crew of the "Center" group covered ground units from UAVs. Russian sources claimed the use of modernized 'Geran' drones, high-speed "Geran-3" turbojet drones, and 'Molniya' drones in recent attacks.

Frontline Operations

High-intensity combat continues across multiple axes, with nearly 150 Russian attacks and over 4500 shellings reported on April 24. The Pokrovsk axis remains the area of highest intensity, with numerous Russian assaults repelled. A Russian UAV was reported operating over Pokrovsk on April 24. Russian 27th Guards Motor Rifle Division soldiers were shown training to breach enemy obstacles and conduct artillery fire on the Pokrovsk direction, suggesting preparation for continued offensive efforts. Ukrainian Flying Skull unit claimed destroying 4 Russian soldiers with FPV drones on the Pokrovsk direction.

The Toretsk axis sees continued Russian pressure and claimed advances, including confirmed control of Sukha Balka by Russian forces. Fighting is ongoing near Dyleevka/Dachne and Sukha Balka, with attempts at flanking maneuvers. Russian sources claimed operators of the 4th Motor Rifle Brigade successfully destroyed Ukrainian positions in Druzhba near Konstantinovka using kamikaze drones. Video emerged claiming to show Russian soldiers under drone attack near Toretsk, with one soldier reportedly committing suicide and another hit by a drone.

On the Novopavlivsk/South Donetsk axis, fighting continues, with Russian claims of repelling Ukrainian counterattacks near Bohatyr and Otradnoye and attempts to advance into Bohatyr. Voin DV claimed capturing 2 Ukrainian POWs (79th AAB) near Bohatyr who surrendered.

Russian Ministry of Defence video claimed a "Vostok" group Msta-B destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point, and Colonelcassad shared video claiming UAV and 2S1 fire from the "South" group destroyed a Ukrainian mortar crew near Rozovka.

Other active axes include Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia (reports of increased Russian assault activity), Huliaipole, and cross-border operations in the Kursk/Sumy zone. President Zelenskyy reported that Russian ground assaults during yesterday's massive air strike were repelled. Ukrainian SSO claimed the destruction of a North Korean military personnel platoon in Kursk Oblast last month. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu stated that the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" in the near future, indicating a continued focus on cross-border security and potential offensive intent. TASS, citing Russian military expert Andrey Marochko, claimed Kyiv intensified chaotic MLRS strikes with prohibited munitions on Vovchansk and Starytsi in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian Smuglyanki unit (supporting Akhmat-Chechnya, 42nd MSD) was reported operating on the Sumy direction "For Kursk Oblast!". Russian 34th Brigade reported meeting Ukrainian armor near Popovka and Demidovka (Belgorod border), claiming to destroy enemy personnel and equipment under heavy drone bombardment.

Naval Activity

As of 06:00 on April 25, one Russian Kalibr missile carrier with a total potential salvo of 6 missiles was present in the Black Sea. No Russian ships were detected in the Sea of Azov. Four Russian warships, including two Kalibr carriers with a total potential salvo of 12 missiles, were present in the Mediterranean Sea. Traffic continues through the Kerch Strait, with 2 vessels related to the Black Sea (one heading towards Bosphorus) and 8 vessels related to the Azov Sea (four entering the Azov Sea).

Civilian Impact and Humanitarian Situation

The ongoing large-scale Russian UAV and missile attacks cause significant civilian casualties and damage. The massive attack on April 24 resulted in 9 fatalities and 63 injured in Kyiv (including six children and a pregnant woman). Russian Smerch MLRS strikes yesterday on Kostiantynivka killed two civilians, including a child. Ukraine's Prime Minister stated 13,000 civilians, including 618 children, have been killed since the start of the full-scale war. The persistent aerial threat necessitates air raid alerts across affected oblasts, highlighting the continued danger to civilian areas. Preliminary information from the drone attack in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast, indicates no casualties. Russian Investigative Committee claims cumulative civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast are over 191 killed and 372 wounded since the start of the invasion.

ASTRA reported that BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov suggested in an interview with "Argumenty i Fakty" that captured Ukrainian "punishers" are subject to extrajudicial killing, stating "nobody will see them beyond the line of combat contact," raising serious concerns about potential war crimes and compliance with international laws of armed conflict.

Capabilities, Logistics, and Personnel

Ukrainian forces continue effective air defense and electronic warfare, though the scale of Russian attacks highlights critical needs for interceptors and systems. Drone operations remain essential for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct action. Ukraine successfully struck the Yelabuga UAV plant on April 23 and inflicted significant losses on the Pokrovsk axis on April 24 (349 personnel, 7 vehicles). Ukrainian Air Assault Forces have reorganized into a Corps system, including a newly formed 8th Corps. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense project "Contract 18-24" has increased the number of participating brigades from 16 to 24, adding high-profile combat units, allowing recruitment into various branches. Euronews reports Ukraine is seeking alternatives to Starlink satellite communications due to concerns over potential access disruption.

A Russian military source publicly appealed to Russian enterprises for donations of metal and lids for dynamic protection boxes (Kontakt-1), indicating potential supply chain gaps or logistical shortcomings for specific materials. Russia is reportedly developing new counter-UAV technology, including a detector ("ПТ-03 Птицелов"). Russian forces continue large-scale combined air attacks, tactical aviation, and extensive drone use. Russian Ministry of Defence claimed an "Osa-AKM" crew successfully engaged Ukrainian UAVs. Russian sources highlighted the claimed effectiveness of 4th Motor Rifle Brigade drone operators. Russian Spetsnaz units ("Archangel Spetsnaz," potentially 45th Bde) were shown operating with modern tactical equipment and utilizing digital tablets. TASS reported that the Russian Ministry of Defence is demanding the recovery of nearly 50 million rubles from "Voentelekom", indicating ongoing legal and financial issues within the Russian defense sector impacting resources.

Political, Diplomatic, and Information Environment

Potential discussions and pressure regarding peace negotiations continue. UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer expressed hope for a long-term ceasefire by summer, stressing it must be on terms acceptable to all sides, including Ukraine, to avoid Russia regrouping. This contrasts with some reported US proposals involving territorial concessions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly reiterated Russia's readiness for a deal and praised Donald Trump, calling him the "only world leader" who understands the need to eliminate the "root causes" of the Ukrainian crisis. Reports from CNN, cited by Russian sources, indicate that US allies are alarmed by potential plans from Donald Trump regarding recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Russian control over Donbas and Novorossiya. A European official is cited as stating that the situation has reached a point where discussions about territory are necessary. European nations have warned the US they will not recognize annexed Crimea. Ukraine maintains that peace talks require a full ceasefire and exclude territorial concessions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated after meeting with US President Donald Trump that NATO considers Russia a "long-term threat" to the territory of the Alliance and the entire Euro-Atlantic area. Peskov stated Russia will achieve its goals either peacefully or militarily, and for conflict end, Ukraine must withdraw forces from the four claimed oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson). Peskov denied Russia has territorial claims on Baltic states. Peskov stated relations between Russia and the West are at a deadlock and Russia is trying to normalize relations with Washington. Peskov stated that the resignation of Zelenskyy is not among Russia's demands, but any documents he signs could be challenged due to his alleged illegitimacy.

Russian Defence Minister Shoigu claims sanctions have not hindered the growth of Russian trade and that external and internal debt has been reduced. Russia's Finance Minister stated the unemployment rate fell to a historic low of 2.4% in January-February. Shoigu also claimed that special services from unfriendly countries are attempting to influence Russian citizens through NGOs and media. Reports suggest the United Kingdom may abandon plans to send its military personnel to Ukraine as peacekeepers. Russian forces from the "Dnepr" group are reportedly distributing instructions for the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers through a feedback bot. Russian sources continue to disseminate narratives and alleged testimonies regarding alleged war crimes and "atrocities" by Ukrainian forces. Shoigu stated that the Security Council will review an updated concept of migration policy this year. Russian source NgP RazVеdka framed Russia not taking all of Ukraine as a "big concession" and suggested Ukrainian withdrawal from the 4 claimed oblasts and taking "media Ukrainians" as reparations as conditions for peace.

Russia and China have approved a draft agreement on the encouragement and mutual protection of investments. DW reports Zelenskyy plans to visit South Africa on April 24 to meet with President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Counter-Intelligence and Security

Joint Ukrainian/international operations against hacker groups continue. Allegations of torture by Russian security services persist. Ukraine is investigating the death of journalist Viktoriia Roshchina in Russian captivity as a war crime. Russia's FSB claimed preventing terrorist attacks. Temporary mobile internet restrictions are in place in some Russian border regions. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu claimed measures have been taken to protect the Russian segment of the internet and alleged foreign attempts to influence its citizens online. An incident in Khabarovsk Krai, far in Eastern Russia, involving local police initiating a criminal case regarding illegal arms trafficking was reported on April 24. ASTRA reported on the FSB detaining an activist in occupied Donetsk and accessing his Telegram account remotely from Lithuania, suggesting surveillance capabilities. Roskomnadzor has reportedly forced Russian outlets to delete publications under "discreditation" laws, highlighting state information control. A death of an inmate in Kyiv SIZO in December 2024 is under investigation. The TASS report about the Russian Ministry of Defence demanding recovery of funds from "Voentelekom" indicates internal financial security and oversight concerns within the Russian defense sector. Temporary flight restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport, now lifted, were previously related to security concerns. Russian police in Khabarovsk Krai are investigating a case of financial fraud reported by a local resident, indicating ongoing domestic security issues unrelated to military operations.

Learning and Adaptation

Ukrainian forces adapt tactics, increasing drone reliance and focusing recruitment on specialized units and reorganized force structures, including the formation of the 8th Air Assault Corps and expansion of the "Contract 18-24" recruitment project. Ukraine is boosting domestic ammunition production. Russian forces adapt by employing large-scale combined air attacks with updated drone vectors observed, using drones in coordinated ground assaults, and seeking adaptive logistical solutions (public appeal for components). Russian adaptation also includes the development of new counter-UAV technologies, such as a detector for fiber-optic guided drones. Russian Ministry of Defence claims highlight the deployment of systems like "Osa-AKM" against UAVs. Russian sources discuss adapting tactics and equipment, with the 4th Motor Rifle Brigade drone operators claiming effective tactical strikes. Russian information operations continue to adapt by promoting personnel and equipment and utilizing new methods like distributing surrender instructions via feedback bots and framing alleged Ukrainian actions within propaganda "tribunals". Economic messaging is adapted to highlight resilience and low unemployment rates. The training shown of Russian 27th Guards Motor Rifle Division soldiers on obstacle breaching suggests adaptation in preparing for offensive actions. Reports of Ukraine seeking Starlink alternatives indicate adaptation to potential vulnerabilities in critical communication systems.

Resource Allocation and Logistics

Ukraine prioritizes domestic production and seeks external aid and technical cooperation. Recruitment drives highlight personnel needs, particularly via the expanded "Contract 18-24" project. Reports of significant missing Russian personnel highlight potential human resource issues. The public appeal by a Russian source for dynamic protection components from civilian enterprises is a specific indicator of potential Russian logistical bottlenecks for specific materials. The Russian Ministry of Defence seeking financial recovery from "Voentelekom" suggests scrutiny over past defense contracts and resource management. The claim of record low unemployment in Russia may be presented to suggest ample labor resources, including potentially for the defense sector, though Shoigu stating the Security Council will review the migration concept this year suggests potential concerns regarding overall labor supply.

Communication and Coordination

Operational reports, diplomatic engagements, and information operations continue. The structure from battlefield command to political leadership facilitates communication. Joint security operations highlight international coordination. Russian forces are reportedly using a feedback bot to disseminate surrender instructions to Ukrainian soldiers. Real-time threat reporting, such as the ongoing tracking of drone movements by Ukrainian Air Force across multiple oblasts with updated vectors, facilitates rapid alerting and response. Diplomatic statements, such as NATO Secretary General Rutte's remarks after meeting with Trump, underscore ongoing high-level communication and coordination within alliances. Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov stated productive negotiations with US Special Envoy Kellogg, highlighting focus on Ukraine's consistent position and security guarantees.

Human Oversight and Decision Authority

Human commanders direct operations with high-level political leaders engaged in strategic decisions. Ensure transparency in the decision-making process to allow for informed judgment by human commanders. The investigation into the Kyiv SIZO inmate death highlights the need for accountability and oversight within state institutions. ASTRA's report on the alleged statement by the BARS-Kursk deputy commander regarding extrajudicial killings raises severe questions regarding compliance with rules of engagement and accountability within Russian forces.

Cybersecurity and Information Assurance

Protect sensitive data and communications from cyber threats and unauthorized access. Ensure the integrity and availability of information systems supporting military operations. Joint Ukrainian/Czech operations against hacker groups demonstrate ongoing efforts. Sanctions aim to limit Russia's access to military components. Russia maintains pervasive state information control, implements operational security measures, and alleges foreign attempts to influence its citizens online. Roskomnadzor's actions limiting information access and the FSB's reported remote access to activist accounts demonstrate state control impacting information assurance. The temporary flight restrictions in Russian airspace could be a security measure. Reports of Ukraine seeking alternatives to Starlink indicate concern over the security or reliability of critical satellite communication systems.

Operational Workflow

The workflow involves data collection, analysis, reporting, visualization, and adaptation based on feedback and outcomes, encompassing military, political, and security dimensions. The public appeal for specific material components by a Russian source suggests an ad-hoc element within the operational workflow for meeting urgent logistical needs. Information flows are influenced by both official reporting (UA Air Force drone updates with new vectors) and open-source intelligence. The operational workflow includes the rapid identification and reporting of real-time threats such as UAV movements, leading to alert declarations and the activation of air defense systems. Russian forces are also integrating information operations into their workflow, such as using automated systems for disseminating surrender instructions. Emergency services responding to impacts are also part of the operational response workflow, as seen in Ivanovo Oblast. Airport closures/restrictions indicate activation of air security protocols in response to perceived threats or incidents. Military claims from Russian sources like RU MoD and Colonelcassad (e.g., Msta-B destroying PVD, UAV/2S1 destroying mortar) highlight the integration of reconnaissance (UAV) and strike assets in their workflow.

Potential Indicators

Continued large-scale, multi-vector Russian air/drone attacks targeting urban centers and key infrastructure nodes, with specific updated tracking of Shahed movements across eastern and central oblasts (including updated vectors towards Pavlohrad and within Kharkiv/Poltava, and groups on the Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv border), indicate a sustained strategy to exert pressure and degrade infrastructure. High intensity on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes points to prioritized offensive efforts in Donbas. The confirmed Russian tactic of combining ground assaults with massive air strikes suggests this adaptive approach may recur. Russian 27th Guards Motor Rifle Division training on obstacle breaching and artillery on the Pokrovsk axis suggests preparation for continued or intensified offensive operations.

The public appeal by a Russian source for dynamic protection components from civilian enterprises is a specific indicator of potential Russian logistical bottlenecks. The development of new Russian counter-UAV technology and claims regarding the effectiveness of systems like "Osa-AKM" signal an ongoing adaptation to the persistent threat posed by Ukrainian drones. The confirmed drone attack within Ivanovo Oblast suggests a continued capability and intent for deep strikes into Russian territory. Temporary flight restrictions in multiple Russian airports are a further indicator of heightened security concerns or responses to potential drone activity.

Significant developments in the political and diplomatic sphere remain critical indicators. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's statements explicitly praising Donald Trump and aligning Russia's negotiation stance with Trump's rhetoric signal a concerted Russian effort to influence the US political landscape and shape future potential negotiations on favorable terms. The reported alarm among US allies regarding Trump's potential plans for recognizing Russian territorial claims further underscores the potential for shifts in international support dynamics and pressure on Ukraine regarding territorial concessions. NATO Secretary General Rutte's statement labeling Russia a "long-term threat" after meeting with Trump indicates continued Alliance solidarity and a persistent strategic view despite potential US policy shifts. The report that the UK may abandon plans for sending peacekeepers suggests potential fragmentation or hesitancy within international "coalitions of the willing" regarding direct support deployments. These developments suggest a challenging diplomatic environment ahead for Ukraine. Peskov's explicit statements on Russia's conditions for peace (Ukraine withdrawing from claimed regions) and his views on relations with the West and Ukraine's government solidify Russia's maximalist stance. The use of automated systems by Russian forces to distribute surrender instructions indicates an ongoing information warfare effort. Shoigu's statement about clearing Kursk Oblast signals potential future operational focus or intent in the border regions.

Ukrainian efforts to expand recruitment via "Contract 18-24" reflect a strategic focus on increasing manpower in high-intensity units. Reports of Ukraine seeking alternatives to Starlink indicate a potential vulnerability in crucial battlefield communications.

ASTRA's report on the BARS-Kursk deputy commander's statement regarding alleged extrajudicial killings of Ukrainian POWs raises serious concerns about potential war crimes and could impact prisoner exchange processes and international perceptions of Russian conduct. The video showing a claimed suicide by a Russian soldier under drone attack points to the severe psychological impact of drone warfare and potential demoralization among some Russian personnel.

Previous Report (2025-04-25 02:55:54Z)