Situation Report

Operational Update

Strategic & Air Warfare

Russia conducted a large-scale, combined air attack utilizing Kalibr cruise missiles (including a newly reported group entering via Kherson Oblast), cruise missiles from six Tu-95ms strategic bombers, approximately 40 Shahed drones, an estimated 10 ballistic missiles, aeroballistic missiles (MiG-31K presence noted), and KABs/KARs. Attacks targeted multiple regions including Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia.

Severe consequences are confirmed in Kyiv, with Ukrainian sources reporting 9 fatalities (GSh, RBC) or 10 fatalities (ASTRA, Suspilne) and over 70 injured. Significant damage occurred across multiple districts, impacting residential buildings (fires, partial destruction, potential trapped persons), non-residential buildings, garages, and cars. Rescue operations are ongoing across 5 districts. Drone debris was reported in Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts.

In Kyiv Oblast, the attack resulted in 2 women suffering acute stress reaction and damage to 3 five-story residential buildings, 4 shops, 8 cars, a bus stop, a warehouse, and forest/open areas.

Kharkiv sustained multiple impacts from combined drone (14) and missile (10) attacks totaling 24 strikes according to the Mayor. Damage is reported to private houses, multi-story residential buildings, a city clinic, a school, production enterprises, and a hotel complex. Two injuries were confirmed initially by Ukrainian sources, with the Mayor reporting one person hospitalized.

Attacks on railway infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblasts damaged technical tracks, administrative, and technical buildings, injuring 2 railway workers.

In Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces conducted 4 Smerch MLRS strikes on the private sector, killing 2 civilians (a 12-year-old girl and a woman) and injuring 2 others. Damage includes 15 house facades, a gas pipeline, and power lines. The Prosecutor's Office is investigating as a war crime.

In Poltava Oblast (Myrhorodskyi raion), debris from a downed missile damaged a household building and car, with no casualties. In Khmelnytskyi Oblast, the attack resulted in 2 injured, damage to a gas distribution point (no supply disruption), roofs of two houses, windows/doors in five apartments, and a park summer area. A fire occurred and was liquidated. In Sumy Oblast (Nedryhailivska community), a drone strike caused 2 injuries and damaged administrative and non-residential buildings. In Cherkasy Oblast, 5 Russian drones were reportedly shot down with no casualties.

Ukraine confirmed successful strikes on a Russian UAV production plant in Tatarstan (Yelabuga), a Russian UAV launch point/warehouse in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast (claimed by RU sources), and the 51st GRAU arsenal in Vladimir Oblast (Kirzhach), where ongoing detonations are reported. Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station in the Northern direction using FPV drones.

Russian sources claimed downing 87 Ukrainian drones overnight over nine regions of Russia and occupied Crimea (45 over Crimea, 10 Belgorod, 10 Kursk, 8 Voronezh, 4 Bryansk, 4 Lipetsk, 4 Nizhny Novgorod, and 2 Moscow region).

Frontline Operations

High-intensity combat continues with a reported 168 combat clashes over the past 24 hours across all active axes.

The Pokrovsk Axis remains the area of highest intensity, with Ukrainian defenders stopping 56 Russian assault actions near numerous settlements including Kalynove, Zelene Pole, and Andriivka.

On the Toretsk Axis, Russian forces conducted 25 attacks. Russian sources claim continued advances southwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), reporting the capture of Sukha Balka and advances towards Romanovka and Pravdovka. DeepState reports enemy success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka. RU sources also claim nearly 1 km advance towards Hryhorivka (Donetsk).

The Lyman Axis saw 20 Russian attacks yesterday, with attempts to break through near Nove, Hrekivka, Nadiya, and Ridkodub.

The Siversk Axis saw Ukrainian forces stop 12 Russian offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske today.

On the Novopavlivsk Axis, Ukrainian units stopped 15 Russian offensive actions yesterday near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Rivnopil, and Novodarivka. Russian sources note force accumulation in this area for a potential large offensive.

On the Orikhiv Axis, occupiers attempted to advance three times in the areas of Stepove, Shcherbaky, and Lobkove. Russian sources report attacks hindered by significant Ukrainian long-range fire.

The Kharkiv Direction saw 4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory today. The situation is assessed as complex but controlled.

On the Kupyansk Axis, one Russian attack was repelled today near Zahryzove. Russian sources claimed disrupting a Ukrainian rotation near Mala Shapivka, causing losses (12 personnel, 1 AFV).

The Kramatorsk Axis recorded one combat clash near Klishchiivka yesterday.

The Huliaipole Axis recorded no ground clashes yesterday.

On the Prydniprovskyi Axis, the enemy had one unsuccessful attempt to advance yesterday. Intense fighting continues for Ukrainian bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro, particularly around Krynky.

Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian positions and concentrations, with RU sources claiming strikes on UA UAV production sites, temporary deployment areas, command points, communications (incl. Starlink), and equipment concentrations in various areas.

Border Area Situation

Intense Russian activity continues in the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, with Ukrainian forces repelling 26 Russian assaults today and stopping 23 yesterday. Russian forces conducted 20 airstrikes (41 KABs) and 423 shellings (19 MLRS) over the past day. Russian sources claim clearing operations nearing completion in the Hornal area and advancements up to 1.5 km towards the demarcation line, as well as claiming destruction of a large concentration of Ukrainian equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast).

In the Belgorod Border Zone, Russian sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts and report ongoing fighting near Popovka and Demidovka. Russian analysis suggests the Ukrainian offensive here has stalled, with Ukrainian forces fortifying positions and minimizing vehicle use due to Russian drone activity and difficult terrain.

Civilian Impact & Casualties

Russian attacks causing severe civilian casualties and damage are confirmed across multiple regions. In Kyiv: 9-10 killed and over 70 injured (42 hospitalized, including 6 children and a pregnant woman), with significant damage to residential and non-residential buildings. Rescue operations are ongoing with DSNS units, K9 units, and psychologists. In Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast: 2 killed (12-year-old girl, woman) and 2 injured from a Smerch MLRS strike on the private sector. In Kharkiv: Impacts caused damage to private houses, multi-story residential buildings, a clinic, school, production enterprises, and a hotel, with 2 injured reported (1 hospitalized). In Kyiv Oblast: 2 women suffered stress reaction and damage occurred to residential buildings, shops, cars, a warehouse, and natural areas. In Zaporizhzhia city: a Shahed attack damaged an administrative building and nearby windows. In Poltava Oblast: debris from a downed missile caused damage, no casualties. In Khmelnytskyi Oblast: 2 injured and damage to infrastructure and residential buildings. In Sumy Oblast: a drone strike in Nedryhailivska community caused 2 injuries and damage. Attacks on railway infrastructure injured 2 railway workers. A DSNS unit in Zhytomyr was reportedly struck twice by the enemy, injuring one rescuer. Russian sources claim cumulative civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast since August 2024 (191 killed, 372 injured).

Logistics & Capabilities

Ukrainian forces demonstrate effective Air Defense and Electronic Warfare capabilities, active drone operations for reconnaissance and strikes, and successful long-range strikes (Tatarstan UAV plant, Kirzhach arsenal). Recruitment efforts are expanding. Joint European CV90 procurement is linked to Ukraine's needs. Japan agreed to provide GUR with satellite SAR imagery. Ukraine is finalizing an agreement with the US on mineral resources. Ukrainian forces are employing FPV drones and ATGM systems, and new equipment like the "Bohdana" wheeled SPG is observed. DSNS is actively responding to impacts, demonstrating resilience in civil defense.

Russian forces maintain sustained heavy use of UAVs (Shaheds/Gerans, Lancets, FPVs), KABs (228 dropped yesterday), missiles (Kalibr, Iskander, Tornado-S, strategic aviation cruise missiles, Smerch MLRS), and artillery strikes (6289 fired yesterday). MiG-31K flights continue posing a Kinzhal threat. Active tactical aviation. Increased Black Sea Kalibr capacity noted. Russia claims successful AD activities over its territory and occupied areas, and claims targeting Ukrainian assets including command posts, communications, and equipment concentrations. Russian sources highlight the use of EW, drones for coordinating assaults, adapted naval gun systems against drones, incendiary rounds, and motorcycles. Russian paratroopers are using FPV drones with a net tactic. Public fundraising appeals by Russian military units for basic equipment suggest potential logistical gaps. Russia is reportedly testing fully import-substituted Sukhoi Superjet 100.

Ukrainian challenges include sustained mass Russian attacks causing severe civilian casualties and damage, straining emergency services and civil defense. The need for robust air defense against various threats remains critical. Mine contamination is significant. Damage to railway infrastructure impacts logistics. Reports of Russian targeting UA UAV CPs and Starlink terminals highlight a threat to command/control.

Political & Diplomatic Landscape

Reports indicate pressure on Ukraine regarding potential peace negotiations and territorial concessions. The planned ministerial meeting in London did not occur at the ministerial level, with reports suggesting Ukrainian rejection of alleged US proposals involving concessions. Reports from sources like the Financial Times suggest European efforts to find a "landing zone" potentially involving Ukraine moving "towards ceding territory" due to concerns over the US stance. Donald Trump has made statements suggesting he believes Russia is ready for a deal and that he finds Zelenskyy "more difficult" to come to an agreement with than expected. A reported US peace proposal framework ("Trump Plan") allegedly included significant Ukrainian concessions (Crimea, Donbas, South, NATO neutrality, sanctions lifting) in exchange for vague guarantees and limited territorial return, with ZNPP under US management.

Peskov reiterated Russia's conditions for conflict end (withdrawal from claimed oblasts, neutral status, recognition of realities). Sergey Shoigu stated that deployment of peacekeepers to "historical Russian territories" could lead to World War Three.

Ukraine's official position remains no surrender, rejecting a "frozen war" and territorial concessions before a full ceasefire, emphasizing territorial integrity. Ukraine has conveyed its consistent stance to US representatives. President Zelenskyy arrived in South Africa for diplomatic engagement. Ukraine formally presented evidence to the Chinese Ambassador regarding alleged Chinese citizen and company involvement in supporting Russia's war effort.

The death of Russian military correspondent Nikita Goldin from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 24 has been confirmed.

Counter-Intelligence & Security

In Russia/Occupied Territories, a journalist was placed on a wanted list for 'fakes', and legislation criminalizing discrediting RU Armed Forces was signed. Rosgvardia General Varentsov was arrested for fraud. Russia imposed sanctions against UK parliamentarians. FSB in Crimea accused a local woman of involvement in a 2024 bombing targeting a Russian officer in Sevastopol.

In Ukraine, temporary restrictions were implemented at the Shehyni border crossing (Poland) due to repairs. Railway infrastructure was attacked.

Internationally, Poland has stricter counter-intelligence laws. Latvia introduced mandatory notification for Russian/Belarusian citizens. Moldova uncovered an alleged pro-Russian vote-buying scheme linked to a sanctioned Russian bank.

Previous Report (2025-04-24 05:16:33Z)