Military Intelligence Operational Update

As of Thu Apr 24 03:14:58 2025 (Incorporating intelligence up to approx. 03:14 UTC)

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I. Strategic & Air Warfare

A large-scale, multi-vector Russian UAV and missile attack is concluding after impacting central, eastern, southern, and northern Ukraine. Confirmed launches included Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea (including a new group reported entering via Kherson Oblast) and cruise missiles from strategic aviation (launch maneuvers by all 6 TU-95ms strategic bombers occurred earlier). Widespread Shahed drone activity persisted across multiple regions. A MiG-31K aircraft, a carrier of the Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, was airborne during the attack, posing a threat to all regions of the country. Activity of enemy tactical aviation was noted on the north-eastern and eastern directions, posing a threat of aviation weapon strikes for frontline oblasts. KABs have been launched on Sumy Oblast, and KAR/KABs were reported on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

Real-time tracking indicated complex and dynamic movement patterns for both Shahed drones and missiles across numerous oblasts, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Zaporizhzhia. Missile trajectories showed significant changes, attempting to evade air defenses.

Air Defense was active across affected regions. Explosions were heard against UAVs in Kyiv city, and further explosions reported across the city. Ballistic missile threats were issued with reports of launches from the east and claimed origins in Voronezh/Bryansk, including rapid targets on Kyiv and ballistic missiles towards Pavlohrad/Zaporizhzhia.

Impacts have been confirmed in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Pavlohrad. The consequences in Kyiv are severe: detailed reports across multiple districts indicate significant damage: Golosiivskyi (car fires, damage to garages/administrative building, debris), Shevchenkivskyi (debris, garage fires, non-residential fires), and Sviatoshynskyi (most significantly affected: residential building fire/partial destruction with people potentially trapped under rubble, car fires, non-residential fires, garage cooperative damage, 1-story residential building fire/destruction). Medics and emergency services were active, including rescue operations in Sviatoshynskyi. Latest confirmed casualty updates for Kyiv indicate 9 people killed and 63 injured (42 hospitalized, including 6 children; 16 received aid on site), including a pregnant woman. Drone debris fell in the Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts of Kyiv (open ground).

Further explosions were reported in Kharkiv (multiple confirmed impacts, including a series of explosions causing damage to private houses in Novobavarskyi and Osnov'yanivskyi districts during continuous drone attacks for over half an hour, and strong fires reported). Kharkiv Mayor Terekhov reported 19 strikes in the first wave tonight (7 cruise missiles and 12 Shahed drones) hitting a production enterprise and damaging multi-story and private homes. Latest update confirms 2 injured in Kharkiv from the recent strike on a densely populated residential area with multi-story buildings (windows broken). Explosions were also reported in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Pavlohrad, which was under enemy drone attack again with repeated loud impacts and missiles inbound, with missiles confirmed on Pavlohrad multiple times. Preliminary estimates suggested ~6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic and ~6 Kalibr cruise missiles targeted Kyiv, at least 3 cruise missiles targeted Kharkiv, and at least 2 ballistic and 3 cruise missiles targeted Pavlohrad in the initial wave. Nikolaevskiy Vanek assessed this as "one of the most massive attacks on Kyiv and Pavlohrad" in his memory.

In Kyiv Oblast, consequences included a damaged 5-story residential building and shop fire in Bucha, a forest fire in Vyshhorod, and a grass fire in Brovary (no casualties reported).

Temporary flight restrictions at Kaluga and Zhukovsky airports in Russia were lifted, but restrictions were introduced at Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, and Ulyanovsk airports. Ukrainian Air Force reported that missiles in western oblasts were preliminarily cleared, and Nikolaevskiy Vanek reported that missile activity has now ceased ("минус по ракетам"). Shahed activity near Zaporizhzhia was also cleared ("по мопедам на Запорожье минус"). Nationwide air raid alerts are now reported as cleared for most areas.

Earlier (Apr 21-22), a large-scale Russian air attack involving Onyx, Kh-31P, and 96 Strike UAVs resulted in UA Air Defense downing 42 Shahed-type UAVs and 47 "Imitator Drones" failing/lost due to EW. Impacts included damage in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Kherson Oblasts.

Ukrainian sources reported widespread explosions in occupied Crimea (Sevastopol, Simferopol, Armyansk, Dzhankoy, Saky, Yevpatoriya) as part of a combined strike. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed a strike on a plant producing strike UAVs in the Yelabuga district of Tatarstan (1054 km from border), claiming hits and damage to the final assembly workshop. Ongoing detonations continued (gradually ceasing) at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following the likely UA deep strike (Apr 22); extensive forest fires persisted with an estimated 1 sq km damaged. Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station on the Northern direction using FPV drones.

II. Naval Activity

Russian Kalibr missile carriers were active in the Black Sea, confirmed launching missiles in the current attack, including a new group reported entering via Kherson Oblast. Earlier reports indicated 2 carriers active as of 06:00 UTC with a potential salvo of 12+ missiles, with a later report suggesting up to 6 Kalibr carriers (total potential salvo up to 46 missiles) may have been deployed earlier (Apr 21). An Italian Air Force (NATO) surveillance aircraft is active. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA UAVs over the Black Sea in the last hour (prior to the current attack). No enemy vessels were detected in the Sea of Azov. Three Russian warships are present in the Mediterranean Sea, including two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles). Transit continues through the Kerch Strait, with Russia persisting in disabling AIS. Widespread explosions have been reported across occupied Crimea due to a Ukrainian combined strike targeting multiple locations.

III. Frontline Operations

Russian forces maintain high offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (43 attempts today). A high number of combat clashes were recorded today (124). Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russian forces are regrouping and transferring troops and equipment from Crimea and Russia to the southern front for expected intensification. Heavy use of UAVs (including incendiary), KABs, and artillery continues. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, using drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and conducting tactical counter-attacks. Marinka is confirmed as extensively destroyed and under firm Russian control, heavily mined with abandoned defensive positions. OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia plans to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 9, continuing attacks on the Pokrovsk axis. Peskov reiterates Russia's condition for conflict end: Ukraine must withdraw forces from the four claimed oblasts, have neutral status, and recognize territorial realities. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" in the near future.

On the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast, repelling 23 RU assaults today. Intense Russian activity, including air strikes and shelling, continues. RU MoD claims repelling UA invasion attempts and inflicting over 170 casualties. RU sources claim clearing operations nearing completion in Hornal area and claim destroying a large concentration of UA equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast) using Iskander and Tornado-M. UA drone units are active on the Sumy direction. KABs have been launched on Sumy Oblast. Earlier (Apr 20), Ukrainian DShV captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast. On the Belgorod Border Zone, RU sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts and report ongoing fighting near Popovka and Demidovka. On the Kharkiv Direction, 4 Russian attacks were repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory today. The situation is complex but controlled. Russian forces continue air strikes and shelling. RU sources claim RU assault groups actively pushing into UA defense near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. On the Kupyansk Axis, one Russian attack was repelled today. Ukrainian forces may have recently advanced and potentially secured control over the northwestern part of Petropavlivka (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22). RU sources claim resumed "rolling attacks" and fighting for Kamenka and Kondrashovka. Russian engineering units were confirmed preparing Zherebets River crossings during the recent ceasefire (Apr 20). Russian fighter Andrei Marochko claimed Russian fighters with a combined strike disrupted a Ukrainian rotation near Mala Shapkovka (Kharkiv Oblast) and that the enemy lost 12 soldiers and 1 military vehicle. On the Lyman Axis, 20 Russian attacks were reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian sources claim continued fighting for tree belts and aiming for Ridkodub. RU forces achieved confirmed advances southeast of Yampolivka, and significant fighting is reported near Kreminna (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22). RU sources claim expanding the zone of control towards Torske. On the Siversk Axis, Ukrainian forces stopped 9 Russian offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske today, with 3 ongoing. On the Toretsk Axis, 25 Russian attacks were reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka. Russian sources claim successful advances near Tarasivka, towards Nelepivka, and entering Dachne. DeepState reports enemy continues to develop success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka, noting a flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka is being attempted. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows close combat engagements and successful elimination of Russian personnel in this sector. On the Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity), 43 Russian attempts were reported today (4 ongoing), following 53 yesterday. Russian sources claim resumed envelopment efforts and advances despite fierce Ukrainian resistance near Selydove. Ukrainian GSh reports significant RU losses on this axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, and other equipment. Intense fighting is reported around Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka (ISW, Apr 22). On the Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Vremivka), Ukrainian units stopped 13 Russian offensive actions today (1 ongoing), after 17 yesterday. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports force accumulation for a large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9. RU sources claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne, disrupting UA rotation, and claim a Su-34 strike on a UA PVD in Bohatyr. Potential UA advance near Troitske was assessed by ISW (requires confirmation). On the Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Polohy), 3 Russian attempts were reported today (1 ongoing), after 5 yesterday. Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. Ukrainian GUR units claim destroying over 100 pieces of Russian equipment and eliminating over 150 occupiers on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU forces achieved advances near Kam'yans'ke (northwest of Vasylivka) and within Dniprorudne (south bank of Kakhovka Reservoir) (DeepState, Apr 21). RU claims targeting UA communication assets and UAV control points/temporary deployment points near Orikhiv. RU sources (Colonelcassad/ChDambiev) posted images of claimed captured Ukrainian/Western equipment, including a Husky TSV claimed captured in June 2023. On the Huliaipole Axis, no ground clashes were reported today, though significant fighting was reported by ISW on Apr 22. On the Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih Axis, an updated mass casualty event in Marhanets confirmed 9 KIA and 54 WIA from an FPV drone striking a civilian bus. Continued RU shelling and FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion caused damage and new unspecified casualties. 1 WIA (72yo woman) was reported in Synelnikovskyi raion from shelling. Damage from KAB/UAV attacks reported in Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas and Zelenodolska hromada.

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

The planned ministerial meeting of UK, US, FR, DE, UA Foreign Ministers in London did not occur at the ministerial level, proceeding with officials and experts. This postponement is attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions and a preference to first discuss a full ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reports, citing Ukrainian officials, that talks are stalled and Kyiv fears Trump might blame Ukraine for the failure of peace talks and cut off military aid. The WSJ also reports Donald Trump has admitted to aides that negotiations regarding Ukraine have been more difficult than he expected. White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt stated that Zelenskyy seems to be moving in the wrong direction in peace talks and is using "megaphone diplomacy," which the US finds unacceptable, indicating Trump's patience is running out. US Senator Marco Rubio is quoted by Russian sources as stating that if US-led talks fail, Ukraine could face harsher terms from Russia. The Financial Times reports, citing a source familiar with the London talks, that the UK, Germany, and France are trying to find a "landing zone" for a deal that could involve Ukraine moving "towards ceding territory" due to growing concern over the US's hardline position and Trump's impatience. Donald Trump, when asked if a potential US-Russia agreement included recognizing Crimea as Russian, stated he "just want[s] the war to end," and that he doesn't "care - if they are both happy, they both sign the deal," adding he has "no favorites" and wants the "deal to be made," thus avoiding a direct answer on Crimea's status. More recently, Trump stated, "I think we have an agreement with Russia. We need to come to an agreement with Zelenskyy. And I hope Zelenskyy... I thought it would be easier to come to an agreement with him. So far it has turned out to be more difficult, but that's okay. That's normal. But I think we have an agreement with both of them. I hope they do it."

President Zelenskyy has arrived in South Africa, where he met with President Ramaphosa and other representatives, stating the visit aims to bring a "worthy peace," involve G20 countries in diplomatic efforts, secure PAR's participation in the international coalition for the return of abducted Ukrainian children, and strengthen cultural and educational ties.

Peskov stated Russia has no current plans for talks with Kyiv on stopping strikes on civilian objects but reiterated Putin's readiness to discuss if Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" (decree banning talks with Putin), emphasizing the need to consider the "Easter ceasefire experience" and understand UA readiness for reciprocity. Peskov reiterated that Ukraine must withdraw troops from the regions incorporated into Russia to end the conflict. Peskov also stated that preparation is underway for a meeting between Trump and Putin, and that Trump's special envoy Whitkoff is flying to Moscow for a meeting on Friday. Peskov added that Putin respects Trump. Peskov stated Zelenskyy's resignation is not a Russian demand, but any documents signed by him could be contested due to his illegitimacy. Peskov also commented on willingness to discuss gas contracts if the US takes control of the network. Zelenskyy reposted a 2018 statement by then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reaffirming US policy of non-recognition of Russia's claimed sovereignty over territory seized by force, including Crimea, after Trump's recent comments. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu claims Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire 4,900 times in 30 hours. Politico reports that the White House is considering lifting sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. RU sources (TASS) reported Shoigu stated China supports eliminating the "root causes" of the Ukrainian crisis. Shoigu also announced that over 150 countries will participate in a security conference in Moscow on May 27-29.

Ukraine's official position remains no surrender, rejecting a "frozen war" and territorial concessions before a full ceasefire. Territorial integrity, including Crimea, is non-negotiable. Ukraine conveyed its position to US Special Envoy Kellogg in London, emphasizing its consistent stance, a ceasefire, and security guarantees. Ukraine is also working on finalizing an agreement with the US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources (e.g., Titanium). The UK, France, and Germany are reportedly open to de facto recognition of the current line of control for robust security guarantees ("Korean War-style" truce), but the EU reportedly opposes lifting sanctions before negotiations conclude and opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian.

Earlier (Apr 21), Zelenskyy reiterated Russia must order a ceasefire and stated upcoming London talks would prioritize an unconditional ceasefire. Japan agreed to provide Ukrainian GUR with satellite SAR imagery. Pope Francis was reported deceased (potential impact on Vatican diplomacy). Russia held a "Russia - Islamic World" meeting.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

Ukrainian:

• Civilian Casualties & Damage: Latest confirmed casualties in Kyiv are 9 killed and 63 injured (42 hospitalized, including 6 children; 16 received aid on site, including a pregnant woman), with significant damage to residential buildings (fires, destruction, people potentially trapped under rubble - rescue operations ongoing in Sviatoshynskyi and other districts), non-residential premises, cars, and garages across Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi (most affected), Holosiivskyi, and Podilskyi districts. Drone debris fell in the Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts. Damage also reported in Kyiv Oblast (damaged residential building/shop, forest fire, grass fire - no casualties). Kharkiv impacts include damage to private houses in Novobavarskyi and Osnov'yanivskyi districts during ongoing drone attacks, with Kharkiv Mayor reporting 19 strikes in the first wave tonight (7 cruise, 12 Shaheds) hitting a production enterprise and damaging multi-story and private homes. Latest update confirms 2 injured in Kharkiv from the recent strike on a densely populated residential area with multi-story buildings (windows broken). Other recent significant casualties include 9 KIA, 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) in Marhanets (bus FPV attack), 1 civilian KIA (FPV drone, Ivashky), 1 civilian WIA (stress reaction, Kupyansk shelling), 1 KIA, 40 WIA in Zaporizhzhia city (359 strikes Apr 22), 1 WIA in Synelnikovskyi raion, damage and unspecified casualties in Nikopolskyi raion, damage in Novopavlivska/Mezhivska and Zelenodolska hromadas. Mine contamination remains a significant issue. Emergency services are actively working at strike sites, with extensive search and rescue operations ongoing in Kyiv. Visuals confirm the scale of destruction and the involvement of DSNS psychologists.
• Losses Inflicted on RU (UA Claims): GSh reports significant RU losses on the Pokrovsk axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, 1 UAV antenna, 20 motorcycles, 5 UAVs, 1 ground drone, 1 trench EW, plus damaged equipment. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows successful elimination of Russian personnel in close combat on the Toretsk direction. Ukrainian Marine unit action resulted in the confirmed destruction of a Russian MT-LB and claimed elimination of 8 Russian assault troops. UA "Vartovi" drone unit claims destroying RU infantry and shelters on the Sumy direction. Commander of the Air Command "East" reports downing an enemy UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of the 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion stopping an assault on the Siversk direction, hitting RU personnel, motorcycles, and equipment. Ukrainian Flying Skull unit claims destroying 4 Russian soldiers with FPV drones on the Pokrovsk direction. 9 RU POWs were captured by UA DShV in Kursk Oblast (Apr 20). Capture of an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk (by 49th Assault Battalion) was reported.
• Losses (Confirmed/Observed RU): Significant disruption at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following a likely UA deep strike (Apr 22), with an estimated 1 sq km of the arsenal damaged by fires and ongoing detonations. Damage from Ukrainian attacks on the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast on April 16/17 was reported (arms depot, barracks, HQ). The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin (Zvezda correspondent) from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 has been confirmed by Russian sources. RU claims 1 civilian fatality in Malomykhailivka (Belgorod) due to explosive device detonation. RU claims extensive damage to civilian houses from UA drones in Bryansk Oblast. 4 civilians reported injured near the Kirzhach arsenal. RU forces claim destroying approximately 10 UA UAVs over Voronezh Oblast. RU videos claim destruction of UA equipment/personal by VDV UAVs in Kursk border areas and by 810th Marine Bde in Hornal. RU sources (Colonelcassad) posted images of claimed captured Ukrainian/Western equipment, including a Husky TSV claimed captured in June 2023 on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Images also show damaged armored vehicles, including one with Hebrew markings ("Tzion") and cross symbols, suggesting it is an Israeli Defense Forces vehicle, as well as other damaged vehicles likely MRAPs, presented as captured/damaged by RU forces ("Vostok" group). A large, multi-rotor drone (likely hexacopter/octocopter) recovered by RU Spetsnaz ("Arkangel Spetsnaz") was shown, indicated as a downed enemy UAV.
• Capabilities: Active Air Defense and Electronic Warfare are employed (confirmed 67 strike UAVs intercepted, 47 imitators neutralized, 4 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported recently). Highly active drone operations continue for reconnaissance and strikes (FPV, coordinating ground assaults, destroying armor/equipment, remote mining, destroying RU radar, destroying RU infantry/shelters). RU sources warn personnel about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors ("Jonik" sensor). The Ukrainian General Staff confirms a successful long-range strike (1000+ km) on the RU UAV production plant in Tatarstan, claiming damage to a final assembly workshop. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports delivery of substantial aid including vehicles, 100 day cameras for drones, EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense project "Contract 18-24" has increased the number of participating brigades from 16 to 24, adding high-intensity combat units, for recruitment of younger personnel. Ukraine is reportedly seeking alternatives to Starlink satellite communications. Ukrainian Marines successfully employed FPV drones and Stugna ATGM. The UA 44th Artillery Brigade reportedly seen with a new "Bohdana" wheeled SPG on a Tatra Force 8x8 chassis, including camouflage netting ("mangal") for drone protection. Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish, and Lithuanian cooperation on joint CV90 procurement is linked to Ukraine's assessed needs and potential production in Ukraine. Finalizing an agreement with the US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources is underway. Ukrainian emergency services (DSNS) are active in responding to impacts from Russian attacks, including extensive search and rescue operations with K9 units and psychological support in Kyiv. Japan agreed to provide GUR with satellite SAR imagery.
• Challenges: Sustained mass Russian UAV and missile attacks causing civilian casualties and significant damage to civilian infrastructure across multiple regions, straining emergency services and leading to a high number of injured requiring hospitalization, including vulnerable groups. Rescue operations are ongoing in Kyiv with people potentially trapped under rubble. Continued threat to command/control and communication nodes. Need for robust air defense remains critical, facing dynamic missile maneuvers and potentially new/adapted RU UAV types (alleged "Geran-3"). Temporary restrictions at Shehyni border crossing (Poland) due to repairs.

Russian:

• Losses (UA Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). GSh reports significant RU losses on Pokrovsk axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), plus equipment. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian police video shows elimination of Russian personnel in close combat on the Toretsk direction. Ukrainian Marine unit action resulted in the confirmed destruction of a Russian MT-LB.
• Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Significant disruption at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following a likely UA deep strike, estimated damage area ~1 sq km. Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk (Colonelcassad video evidence, Apr 22). The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 is confirmed. RU claims 1 civilian fatality in Malomykhailivka (Belgorod) due to explosive device detonation. RU claims extensive damage to civilian houses from UA drones in Bryansk Oblast. 4 civilians reported injured near the Kirzhach arsenal. RU forces claim destroying approximately 10 UA UAVs over Voronezh Oblast. RU videos claim destruction of UA equipment/personal by VDV UAVs in Kursk border areas and by 810th Marine Bde in Hornal. RU sources posted images of damaged armored vehicles claimed to be Ukrainian/Western, including a Husky TSV claimed captured in June 2023, and images of damaged vehicles, including one appearing to be an IDF vehicle. A large, multi-rotor drone recovered by RU Spetsnaz is presented as a downed enemy UAV.
• Capabilities & Adaptation: Sustained heavy UAV (Shaheds/Gerans, Lancets, recon, FPVs), KAB, missile (Kalibr, Iskander, Tornado-S, cruise missiles from strategic aviation - including 6 TU-95ms active), and artillery strikes continue. MiG-31K airborne, posing Kinzhal threat. Active tactical aviation, with threat noted on NE and Eastern directions. Increased Black Sea Kalibr capacity (potential 46 missiles reported earlier, new Kalibr group entering via Kherson). Air Defense active over RU territory (claimed interceptions, including over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna and Voronezh). Claims targeting UA assets, including command posts, communications, and equipment concentrations, with RU MoD claiming Su-34 destroyed a UA UAV control point and launch site. Confirmed capture of Sukha Balka and claims of advances near Dachne/Toretsk, Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne, and southeast of Yampolivka. Use of EW, drones for coordinating assaults, adapted naval gun systems against drones, incendiary rounds ("Molniya"), and motorcycles ("samokaty"). Russian 27th Guards Motor Rifle Division soldiers shown training to breach obstacles and conduct artillery fire on the Pokrovsk direction. RU paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia front report using FPV drone tactic with a net to entangle UA drones. Russian sources claim destroying a large concentration of UA equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast) using Iskander and Tornado-M. Claims of destruction of UA positions and personnel (commanders, signalmen) of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Druzhba using kamikaze drones. Claimed Su-34 strike effectiveness in Bohatyr. Claim fleet and strategic aviation are involved in current strikes. Testing of a fully import-substituted Sukhoi Superjet 100 civilian aircraft with domestic engines was reported. RU milblogger promotes the effectiveness of RU tank operations in Kursk and Uragan MLRS. Shoigu stated that European countries are preparing for war with Russia by 2030 and did not exclude the resumption of Russian nuclear testing. RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of proximity sensor munitions ("Jonik"). Temporary restrictions imposed at Nizhny Novgorod airport, Kazan, and Ulyanovsk airports. Shoigu states threats to Belarus requiring Oreshnik system placement remain. Russia enforcing collection of fine from Apple. RU milbloggers are soliciting donations for quadcopters for soldiers. RU fighters claimed disrupting a Ukrainian rotation near Mala Shapkovka (Kharkiv Oblast) with attributed Ukrainian losses. Russian media (Colonelcassad) shared video showing the work of a forward medical group of the 1st Tank Army providing aid and coordinating evacuation of wounded personnel. RU Spetsnaz ("Arkangel Spetsnaz") claimed the recovery of a downed large enemy drone (hexacopter/octocopter), potentially for technical exploitation.
• Needs/Gaps: Fundraising appeals highlight the need for night vision devices, Mavic drones, drone detectors, and radios for the Zaporizhzhia axis (7th Guards Air Assault Division). Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient. A RU source reports finding a way to replace destroyed armored vehicles by sending personnel on scooters, highlighting logistical challenges. A need for anti-aircraft machine gun mounts for infantry suggests a need for decentralized low-altitude air defense. Reports persist of poor living conditions in a military town in Altai Krai (RU Source - Mobilization News, Apr 21). RU RKhBZ unit on Kursk border fundraising for transport vehicle.
• Personnel/Morale Issues: Capture of an African mercenary near Toretsk. A mobilized soldier from North Ossetia with severe injuries was reportedly sent back to the front line from the hospital with a festering wound, raising concerns about personnel management and treatment. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov suggested in an interview that captured Ukrainian "punishers" are subject to extrajudicial killing ("nobody will see them beyond the line of combat contact"). Butusov Plus video shows RU soldiers under drone attack near Toretsk, claiming one soldier committed suicide and another was hit by a drone. ASTRA reported on a raid on conscripts in a Moscow fitness club on April 22. Rosgvardia digital development head General Varentsov was arrested for fraud. Death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin.

VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security

Russia/Occupied Territories: Journalist placed on wanted list for 'fakes' about RU army. Putin signed law criminalizing discrediting RU Armed Forces. RU Info Ops continue (justifying strikes, border controls, energy claims). Temporary flight restrictions introduced and later lifted at Kaluga and Zhukovsky airports; restrictions introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport, Kazan, and Ulyanovsk airports. RU forces claim destroying approximately 10 UA UAVs over Voronezh Oblast. Rosgvardia digital development head General Varentsov was arrested for fraud. Russia introduced personal sanctions against 21 British parliamentarians. RU sources claim enemy attempting to break through to Moscow, with explosions in Kolomna and RU forces shooting down drones in Moscow Oblast. RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors ("Jonik"). Colonelcassad posts video of Kursk resident claiming injury from UA drone, framing it as a war crime. Russia has begun enforcing the collection of an unpaid fine from Apple for failure to localize data. FSB reportedly stripped citizenship from two Russian comedians critical of the war. A Russian IO piece alleges a Ukrainian fitness model was drugged and sexually assaulted by UA soldiers ("not Kharkiv guys"). Ukraine: Temporary restrictions at Shehyni border crossing (Poland) due to repairs. Older: Allegations of police brutality in Kyiv against soldier's son. Poland: Stricter counter-intelligence law restricts photography of sensitive sites. Latvia: Introducing mandatory notification for Russian and Belarusian citizens entering from the Schengen zone due to internal security concerns. Moldova: Authorities uncover alleged pro-Russian vote-buying scheme linked to sanctioned RU bank ("Promsvyazbank") and Shor party.

VII. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

Confirmed Russian attacks targeting civilian infrastructure and causing civilian casualties continue across multiple oblasts, including the current large-scale attack impacting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv Oblast. Latest confirmed casualties in Kyiv are 9 killed and 63 injured (including six children and a pregnant woman), with significant damage to residential buildings (fires, destruction, people potentially trapped under rubble - rescue operations ongoing), non-residential premises, cars, and garages, particularly in Sviatoshynskyi district. Drone debris fell in the Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts of Kyiv. Kharkiv also sustained impacts, including damage to private houses and multi-story/private homes and a production enterprise, with 2 injured confirmed in Kharkiv from the recent strike on a residential area with multi-story buildings (windows broken). The mass casualty event in Marhanets (9 KIA, 54 WIA) due to a Russian FPV drone striking a civilian bus exemplifies the direct impact of the conflict on civilians. The destruction of critical energy infrastructure in Kherson city/Oblast and the Russian drone strike hitting a hospital in Kostiantynivka raise serious concerns regarding adherence to international humanitarian law. Mine contamination remains a significant issue. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov's suggestion of extrajudicial killing of captured Ukrainian "punishers" raises serious concerns about potential war crimes. Putin's acknowledgement of a strike on a civilian facility in Sumy (Apr 21), framed as retribution, underscores the continued risk to civilian life and infrastructure and raises concerns about distinction and proportionality. Medvedev used derogatory language against European and Ukrainian leadership. Russian sources claim deliberate Ukrainian targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure in Russian border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk) and occupied territories, alleging casualties and damage. RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors, framing them as dangerous to personnel. Shoigu claims Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire 4,900 times in 30 hours, likely intended to frame Ukraine as responsible for renewed hostilities impacting civilians. Russian claims include targeting the Preobrazhensky Church in Hornal with FPV drones, allegedly striking Ukrainian positions within a religious site, which would constitute a potential LOAC violation. A Russian IO piece is circulating alleging a Ukrainian fitness model was drugged and sexually assaulted by UA soldiers ("not Kharkiv guys"), framing this as irony and potentially seeking to undermine confidence in Ukrainian forces and recruitment. Visuals from Kyiv highlight the severity of damage to civilian infrastructure, the human toll, and the ongoing rescue efforts by emergency services and volunteers.

Earlier (Apr 21), confirmed extensive damage from Russian drone attack in Odesa impacting a densely populated residential area, hitting civilian infrastructure, residential buildings (multiple apartments damaged), an educational facility, and vehicles; large fires reported with 3 civilians confirmed injured. Civilian casualties were also reported in Kharkiv Oblast (1 KIA by FPV drone in Ivashky, 1 WIA from shelling in Kupyansk). Kharkiv Mayor estimated city damage at €10 billion. UA official data reiterated ~63,000 missing and 10,000 confirmed POWs.

VIII. Information Operations

Russian IO promotes claimed tactical successes and advances on various axes (Sukha Balka, near Toretsk/Dachne, Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne, Hornal), highlights Russian strikes (current multi-vector attack, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad impacts, Korovintsy CP claim, Su-34 Bohatyr, fleet/strategic aviation strikes, claiming Kyiv strikes targeted "enemy objects", RU video claims of VDV/Marine destruction of UA forces in Kursk border areas, RU MoD claiming Su-34 destroyed a UA UAV control point/launch site), emphasizes alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians and territory (claim of ~10 UA UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast, Belgorod, Bryansk, Malomykhailivka fatality, Lysychansk children injury claim, cumulative Kursk casualties, alleged drone injury in Kursk on March 4th presented as "atrocities", claimed FPV strike on Preobrazhensky Church in Hornal), claims Ukrainian drone activity over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna and Voronezh (claiming successful interceptions), warns personnel about alleged Ukrainian use of proximity sensor munitions ("Jonik"), claims Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire 4,900 times, and frames the London talks downgrade and US stance as Ukrainian inflexibility and weakness, blaming Zelenskyy. Russian sources amplify Trump and US criticism of Ukraine, reiterate Russian conditions for peace (Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed regions), deny frontline freeze reports, promote Russian military units, operations, and capabilities (EW, drones, adapted naval guns, Iskander/Tornado-M, tank operations in Kursk, Uragan MLRS, 6 TU-95ms active, MiG-31K airborne, claimed disruption of UA rotation near Kupyansk with losses), and feature fundraising appeals (RU milbloggers showing procurement of quadcopters via donations, video of forward medical group work). The Kirzhach incident is framed as a safety violation. The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin is used in IO. Reports on Marinka's destruction frame Russian control. Shoigu's statement about clearing the Kursk region is promoted. Preparation for a Trump-Putin meeting, the envoy's visit, Putin's respect for Trump, and Peskov's questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy and comments on negotiation terms are disseminated. The Russian Human Rights Ombudswoman's comment on Kursk residents in Sumy is reported. The testing of the import-substituted civilian Superjet 100 with a Victory Day logo is publicized. RU milbloggers express satisfaction with strikes on Kyiv and promote videos offering advice on avoiding casualties. Shoigu's statements about Western destabilization efforts and European war preparations by 2030 are reported by state media. Shoigu's comment on potential nuclear testing resumption is publicized. Discussion of the bill for multi-child families' land compensation is noted in RU media. Colonelcassad promotes narratives about Russia's historical success in integrating foreigners as "Russian by spirit" and notes returning to "info-строй" after leave. Russian state media report Donald Trump claims Russia is ready for a "deal" on Ukraine, only needing agreement with Zelenskyy, and stated London talks went "good". Shoigu's comments on threats to Belarus requiring Oreshnik system placement remain. Russia enforcing collection of fine from Apple. A Russian propaganda piece is circulating, alleging a Ukrainian fitness model was drugged and sexually assaulted by UA soldiers and using this narrative to undermine Ukrainian forces and propaganda. RVvoenkor promotes a new patriotic song/video linking WWII Victory Day commemoration to current operations. RU sources (TASS) reported Shoigu stated China supports eliminating the "root causes" of the Ukrainian crisis. RU sources (Colonelcassad) posted images of claimed captured Ukrainian/Western equipment (Husky TSV) and damaged vehicles (including potentially an IDF vehicle) as part of IO efforts. RU Spetsnaz ("Arkangel Spetsnaz") claimed the recovery of a downed large enemy drone, which is used in IO.

Ukrainian IO highlights Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure (current Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv Oblast impacts) as war crimes, providing casualty details (latest update for Kyiv: 9 killed, 63 injured including vulnerable groups, debris fall in Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts, rescue operations ongoing with potential trapped individuals in Sviatoshynskyi and other districts. Latest for Kharkiv: 2 injured confirmed from strikes on residential areas, total 19 impacts tonight reported by mayor). Visuals are used to demonstrate the scale of destruction and the human impact in Kyiv. Reports on successful Ukrainian strikes versus Russian territory and forces (Yelabuga UAV plant confirmed strike, Crimea combined strike, Kirzhach arsenal impact, destroying radar on Northern direction). Reports on Russian losses (GSh daily totals, Pokrovsk losses, UA unit claims, GUR claims). Showcases Ukrainian capabilities (AD/EW intercepts, drone effectiveness, new equipment like Bohdana SPG, CV90 procurement, Marine operations, mineral resources agreement with US, expanded recruitment, tactical aviation threat warning). Reports on the capture of Russian POWs (African mercenary, DShV capture). Reports on political/diplomatic challenges (London downgrade, WSJ report on Trump fears, FT EU territorial push, US criticism of Zelenskyy, Politico report on potential Nord Stream 2 sanctions lifting). Counter-IO against Trump via the Pompeo statement repost is used. Reporting on Russian internal issues and morale problems is disseminated. UA police video of close combat engagement on the Toretsk direction is used to demonstrate UA effectiveness. President Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa is publicized for diplomatic engagement focused on peace and international support, including the coalition for abducted children. Yermak explicitly frames current Russian attacks as demonstrating a "desire to kill" and demands a cessation of strikes on civilians. Some Ukrainian sources use satire/sarcasm regarding the political context and potential US actions. KMVA provides official updates on Kyiv attack consequences and PPO activity. Trump's recent statement on Crimea and ending the war is reported by Ukrainian sources. Trump's more recent statement about having an agreement with Russia but needing one with Zelenskyy, and finding Zelenskyy harder to deal with, is reported. Reporting on confirmed civilian damage and casualties from the earlier Odesa drone attack (Apr 21) is included in the broader narrative of Russian strikes on civilians.

IX. Potential Indicators

The ongoing large-scale Russian UAV and missile attack, involving confirmed Kalibr, ballistic, and strategic aviation launches (now confirmed 6 TU-95ms), MiG-31K airborne Kinzhal threat, and widespread Shahed activity across multiple vectors targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, and other locations, indicates Russia's continued strategy of integrated air/missile strikes aiming to degrade infrastructure (energy, industrial, military), exert psychological pressure, and potentially overwhelm air defenses. The dynamic real-time tracking of diverse Shahed movement vectors and cruise missile courses across numerous oblasts highlights the scale and complexity of this attack, suggesting an attempt to penetrate defenses across numerous axes and target various objectives simultaneously or in waves, adapting trajectories based on real-time intelligence. The addition of a MiG-31K Airborne posed an immediate nationwide threat. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv and Kharkiv, including extensive damage to residential buildings, multiple fires, and rapidly increasing casualties (now confirmed 9 killed, 63 injured in Kyiv, 2 injured in Kharkiv from residential area hits), underscore the significant risk to civilians and the deliberate nature of targeting areas with civilian presence, even if the claimed intent is military/industrial. The high number and variety of simultaneous threats suggest an effort to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense. The confirmation of launch maneuvers by 6 strategic aviation aircraft and a new Kalibr group entering via Kherson indicated further sustained threat. Impacts and damage to a production enterprise in Kharkiv indicate continued targeting of industrial capacity. Nikolaevskiy Vanek assessing this as one of the most massive attacks on Kyiv and Pavlohrad highlights its scale from an experienced observer's perspective. The subsequent clearance of alerts indicates success by Ukrainian Air Defense in neutralizing the bulk of the threat wave.

The confirmed Ukrainian combined strike on multiple locations across occupied Crimea is a significant kinetic event, demonstrating UA capability to conduct deep strikes against key RU military infrastructure and logistical hubs simultaneously across the peninsula. This will likely impact RU operations in southern Ukraine and require adjustments in RU force disposition and defense posture in Crimea. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Yelabuga UAV production plant in Tatarstan demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability and intent to target military-industrial facilities deep within Russia, aiming to degrade RU production capabilities. This, coupled with the ongoing impact from the Kirzhach arsenal incident, indicates successful UA efforts to disrupt RU logistics and material support for the front. RU claims of Ukrainian drone activity over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna and Voronezh, if confirmed, would indicate continued UA efforts to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory, potentially aiming at strategic or psychological targets, or diverting RU air defense assets. Dynamic temporary flight restrictions in Russian airports suggest a real-time, reactive response to perceived threats. RU claims of Su-34 strikes on Ukrainian UAV control points and launch sites indicate attempts to counter Ukraine's pervasive drone capabilities.

The significant number of combat clashes (124 today) and the high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (43 RU attempts today) indicate that RU forces continue to prioritize offensive operations, particularly in Donbas, likely aiming to achieve territorial gains towards stated objectives (Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9). The reported heavy RU losses on the Pokrovsk axis today, if sustained, could impact the long-term viability of this offensive. Russian confirmation of control of Sukha Balka and claimed advances near Dachne on the Toretsk axis, along with DeepState's assessment of a flanking maneuver possibility, indicates tactical gains by RU forces in this sector, potentially creating a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces defending Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. Reports of troop transfers to the southern front suggest Russia anticipates or is preparing for an intensification of combat operations there. Russian claims of disrupting a Ukrainian rotation near Kupyansk, if verified, indicate localized tactical successes by RU forces and potential vulnerabilities in Ukrainian operational procedures or intelligence. RU sources posting images of claimed captured Ukrainian/Western equipment and downed enemy drones serve both an IO purpose and provide potential (though unverified) indicators of tactical engagements and capabilities employed by both sides. The image of what appears to be an IDF vehicle among claimed captured equipment is notable, if verified.

The downgrading of the London peace talks, reports of alleged US proposals involving territorial concessions, criticism of Zelenskyy from US sources, Trump's statements about negotiation difficulty with Ukraine, the FT report of European partners potentially exploring concessions, and the Politico report on potential Nord Stream 2 sanctions lifting suggest a significant divergence in strategic approaches among Western partners and increasing pressure on Ukraine regarding negotiation terms. This poses a substantial risk to the consistency and scale of future Western support, which is critical for Ukraine's defense. Donald Trump's statement about having an agreement with Russia but needing one with Zelenskyy, whom he finds harder to deal with, strongly indicates his alignment with Russia's stated position that the onus for a peace deal lies with Ukraine accepting Russian terms. This is a critical indicator of potential future pressure on Kyiv, particularly if Trump is elected. Ukraine's counter-IO using the 2018 Pompeo Declaration and President Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa highlight the strategic tension and effort to maintain a principled stance while seeking broader international engagement.

Peskov's reiteration of Russia's maximalist conditions for peace (including UA withdrawal from claimed regions), plans for a Trump-Putin meeting and Trump envoy visit, and questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy indicate minimal prospect for a negotiated settlement on Ukraine's terms in the short term, reinforcing the likelihood of continued military conflict. His statement regarding no talks on stopping civilian strikes unless Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" suggests a willingness to continue targeting civilians as leverage. Shoigu's statement about clearing Kursk region signals increased focus on border security. Shoigu's comments on European war preparations and potential nuclear testing resumption indicate Russia's framing of the conflict within a broader, potentially escalating confrontation with NATO/West. Shoigu's announcement of a large security conference in Moscow suggests continued efforts to engage international partners, particularly from non-Western blocs.

UA's expansion of the "Contract 18-24" recruitment program to high-intensity brigades indicates a strategic effort to reinforce key combat units, suggesting anticipation of sustained heavy fighting and/or preparation for future actions despite current personnel challenges. The joint European CV90 procurement effort further indicates European commitment to providing long-term, substantial armored vehicle support. Japan's provision of SAR imagery enhances UA intelligence capabilities. The effort to finalize a mineral resources agreement with the US suggests strategic planning for post-conflict economic recovery. Yermak's framing of the current attack highlights the ongoing nature of Russian strikes against civilians as a key element of the conflict narrative. The increased confirmed casualty count in Kyiv underscores the significant humanitarian cost of Russian attacks and the strain on civilian infrastructure and emergency services, reinforcing the need for robust civil defense and international support for humanitarian aid. The visuals of rescue operations emphasize both the severity of the impacts and the resilience of the Ukrainian response.

ASTRA's report on the alleged suggestion of extrajudicial killings of Ukrainian POWs by a BARS-Kursk deputy commander raises serious concerns about potential war crimes. RU IO attempts to use alleged Ukrainian drone attacks in border regions and specifically targeting a religious site are part of a broader strategy to portray Ukraine as targeting civilians. The RU IO piece alleging sexual assault within Ukrainian forces is a clear attempt to undermine morale and recruitment and sow discord. The RVvoenkor post linking WWII Victory Day commemoration to current operations is indicative of the heavy use of historical narratives in Russian state propaganda. The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin highlights the human cost, including for embedded media. Russian sanctions against UK parliamentarians demonstrate the multi-domain nature of the conflict. RU milblogger appeals for drone donations underscore that despite state capabilities, specific units may still rely on public support, highlighting potential resource allocation gaps. Moldova uncovering an alleged pro-Russian vote-buying scheme linked to a sanctioned RU bank highlights ongoing Russian efforts to influence internal political processes in neighboring countries. The RU medical group video serves to demonstrate care for RU personnel, potentially boosting morale.

Previous Report (2025-04-24 02:46:53Z)