Military Situation Update

As of Thu Apr 24 02:15:58 2025 (Incorporating intelligence up to approx. 02:15 UTC)

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I. Strategic & Air Warfare

A large-scale, multi-vector Russian UAV and missile attack continues to impact central, eastern, southern, and northern Ukraine. Multiple Kalibr missiles are confirmed launched from the Black Sea, tracked through various Oblasts and towards Kyiv/Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv. Widespread Shahed drone activity persists across central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, with numerous movement vectors targeting Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Pavlohrad. Real-time updates indicate ongoing Shahed activity from Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts towards Poltava; multiple groups in Poltava moving southwest and northwest towards Kyiv Oblast; UAVs in northern Dnipropetrovsk moving west and from Kirovohrad towards Mykolaiv; several groups in northern and western Cherkasy moving northwest; and Shaheds near the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia moving northwest. Specific locations with active Shahed threats include Kharkiv (towards Balakliya and southern course), south of Vinnytsia, on the borders of Vinnytsia/Zhytomyr and Kyiv/Zhytomyr, near Nizhyn and Pryluky, near Shostka (west), near Poltava, north of Balakliya (west), near Zaporizhzhia, from Belgorod towards Bohodukhiv and Kharkiv, near Vyshhorod, towards/through Zhytomyr, and approaching Pavlohrad. Additional Shahed activity is tracked northeast of Zhytomyr, east of Berdychiv (towards Zhytomyr), from Cherkasy to Vinnytsia, from Poltava to Cherkasy, west of Poltava, towards Pryluky, towards Brovary, near Nizhyn (SW course), and approaching Ochakiv from the North. Latest reports indicate Shahed groups from the north and east heading towards Kyiv. Drone activity continues over Kyiv (Vyshhorod, Brovary) and extended to Vasylkiv. Anti-drone efforts are active, notably around Kyiv, with some Shahed threats cleared from Kyiv city and oblast. Remaining Shahed threats tracked towards Fastiv, south of Korosten heading west, from Kharkiv Oblast towards Pavlohrad (5 drones), near Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border, towards Zaporizhzhia (1 drone), east of Zaporizhzhia towards Orikhiv (1 drone), near Samar towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast (3 drones), and near Pavlohrad (1 drone). Shaheds are also reported heading towards Dnipro and Pavlohrad from the north, and towards Zaporizhzhia from the south and north.

Air Defense is active, particularly in Kyiv Oblast, with explosions heard against UAVs in Kyiv city, and further explosions reported across the city. Drone debris has fallen in the Podilskyi district and Desnyanskyi district of Kyiv (open ground). Ballistic missile threats have been issued with reports of launches from the east and claimed origins in Voronezh/Bryansk, including rapid targets on Kyiv and ballistic missiles towards Pavlohrad/Zaporizhzhia. Launch maneuvers by all 6 TU-95ms strategic bombers from the Engels area have occurred, indicating anticipated cruise missile arrivals. A MiG-31K aircraft, a carrier of the Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, is airborne, posing a threat to all regions of the country. Activity of enemy tactical aviation is noted on the north-eastern and eastern directions, posing a threat of aviation weapon strikes for frontline oblasts. KABs have been launched on Sumy Oblast, and KAR/KABs are reported on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Nationwide air raid alert is active. Temporary restrictions at Kaluga and Zhukovsky airports in Russia have been lifted, but restrictions have been introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport.

Missile activity updates: Cruise missiles initially reported from Kherson Oblast towards Zelenodolsk/Kryvyi Rih subsequently changed course towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, then entered Kirovohrad Oblast on a northwest course (estimated ~4 pieces), flying west of Kropyvnytskyi before turning towards Uman. Additional missile launches detected: from the South towards the southwest, from Kirovohrad Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast (towards Uman), from Sumy Oblast from the East (multiple groups, new group reported), from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts, approximately 4 missiles from Cherkasy Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast (specifically Bila Tserkva district, now reported heading to Vinnytsia Oblast), a couple west of Poltava moving south, a couple from Sumy towards Chernihiv (towards Pryluky), and another couple from Akhtyrka towards Chernihiv Oblast. A group of missiles is reported from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast, and from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast. Latest missile tracking:

• Missiles from south of Kyiv Oblast heading to Vinnytsia Oblast.
• Missiles from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts (new group reported).
• Group of missiles from Chernihiv Oblast heading to Kyiv Oblast.
• Group of missiles from Poltava Oblast heading to Cherkasy Oblast.
• Primary group of missiles east of Mirhorod heading towards Kremenchukskyi district, likely to Cherkasy Oblast.
• Other missiles south-southwest from Cherkasy Oblast towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
• Missiles in northern Vinnytsia Oblast heading west/northwest, now reported in Zhytomyr Oblast towards Shepetivka/Zvyagel and further towards Rivne, before turning north/northeast back to Zhytomyr and later proceeding from Zhytomyr Oblast towards/through Shepetivka.
• Missiles south of Smila heading towards Uman.
• Missiles from Poltava Oblast heading to Cherkasy.
• Missiles in northern Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with a group from southern Vinnytsia also heading towards Khmelnytskyi and later proceeding from Khmelnytskyi towards Ternopil Oblast, towards Ternopil.
• Missile west of Kharkiv heading south, now south of Krasnohrad and entering Pavlohradskyi district, later approaching Pavlohrad and proceeding past Lozova towards Pavlohrad.
• Missiles south of Cherkasy Oblast heading south.
• Group of missiles in eastern Poltava Oblast heading south.
• Missiles from Kirovohrad Oblast heading west.
• New group of missiles on Kharkiv Oblast from the east, with one near Chuhuiv heading towards Balakliya and another past Balakliya towards Lozova. New 2 cruise missiles reported near Chuhuiv towards Kharkiv. Another new cruise missile reported through Chuhuiv towards Kharkiv.
• Missiles heading towards Poltava.
• Missiles south of Cherkasy Oblast heading towards Pervomaisk, likely to Odesa Oblast, but now reported entering Vinnytsia Oblast instead, with a pair later reported west of Pervomaisk heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast.
• Missiles heading towards Pavlohrad confirmed, with repeated impacts and inbound missiles reported, and later confirmed missiles on Pavlohrad again.
• Missiles in southern Vinnytsia Oblast heading west, with a pair later reported here.
• Missiles near Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia border heading west (several).
• Missiles in northern Khmelnytskyi heading west, with the last missiles tracked south of Khmelnytskyi heading west.
• Missiles reported on Dnipro.

Impacts have been confirmed in Kyiv, with detailed consequences reported across multiple districts. In Golosiivskyi, effects include car fires, fires and partial destruction of garages and a 2-story administrative building in garage cooperatives, and debris falls on non-residential territory. In Shevchenkivskyi, debris falls occurred on open ground (no fire), garages caught fire, and there was a fire on non-residential territory. Sviatoshynskyi is significantly affected, with a residential building fire and partial destruction (people reportedly trapped under rubble), car fires, fires on non-residential territory, destruction in a garage cooperative, a building fire, and a fire and partial destruction of a 1-story residential building. A fire on non-residential premises in Sviatoshynskyi was extinguished. Medics and emergency services are active. Casualty updates for Kyiv have further escalated: latest reports indicate 2 people killed and 54 injured (6 children, 16 received aid on site, 38 hospitalized), including a pregnant woman. Further explosions have been reported in Kharkiv (multiple confirmed impacts), with the city under continuous drone attack for over half an hour, experiencing a series of explosions causing damage to private houses in the Novobavarskyi and Osnov'yanivskyi districts. Kharkiv Mayor Terekhov reports 19 strikes in the first wave tonight: 7 cruise missiles and 12 Shahed drones, hitting a production enterprise and damaging multi-story and private homes. Explosions were also reported in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Pavlohrad, which is confirmed to be under enemy drone attack again with repeated loud impacts and missiles inbound, with missiles confirmed on Pavlohrad multiple times. Preliminary estimates suggest ~6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic and ~6 Kalibr cruise missiles targeted Kyiv, at least 3 cruise missiles targeted Kharkiv, and at least 2 ballistic and 3 cruise missiles targeted Pavlohrad in the initial wave.

In Kyiv Oblast, consequences include a damaged 5-story residential building and shop fire in Bucha, a forest fire in Vyshhorod, and a grass fire in Brovary (no casualties reported).

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Russia conducted 1 missile, 76 air strikes (4 missiles, 74 KABs), 1128 kamikaze drones, and 4649 shelling incidents against Ukrainian positions and populated areas today (prior to the current wave). A RU milblogger reports a powerful strike on Kharkiv during the current attack. RU sources claim a combined Iskander and Tornado-S strike on an alleged command post of the 47th Mechanized Brigade near Korovintsy, Sumy Oblast, claiming destruction of the command post, communications, vehicles, and significant personnel losses. RU claims fleet and strategic aviation strikes are underway. RU sources also claim enemy attempts to break through to Moscow, with explosions in Kolomna and RU forces shooting down drones in Moscow Oblast. RU forces claim destroying approximately 10 UAVs over Voronezh Oblast with no casualties. Restrictions at Kaluga and Zhukovsky airports in Russia have been lifted. RU MoD claims a Su-34 fighter-bomber destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point and launch site with guided aerial bombs.

Ukrainian sources report widespread explosions in occupied Crimea (Sevastopol, Simferopol, Armyansk, Dzhankoy, Saky, Yevpatoriya) as part of a combined strike. The Ukrainian General Staff confirms a strike on a plant producing strike UAVs ('Geran-2'/Shahed type and others) in the Yelabuga district of the Republic of Tatarstan, located 1054 km from the state border, claiming hits and explosions in the target area and damage to the final assembly workshop. Ongoing detonations continue but are gradually ceasing at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following the likely UA deep strike (Apr 22); extensive forest fires persist, with an estimated 1 sq km of the arsenal damaged. Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station on the Northern direction using FPV drones. UA "Vartovi" drone unit claims destroying RU infantry and shelters on the Sumy direction. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA UAVs over the Black Sea and Kursk Oblast in the last hour (prior to the current attack). The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin (Zvezda correspondent) from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 has been confirmed by Russian sources. Overnight (Apr 22-23), RU MoD claimed interception/destruction of 11 UA UAVs over Tula (3), Belgorod (2), Kursk (2), Bryansk (1), Kaluga (1), Oryol (1), and Crimea (1) Oblasts. Reports from Apr 20-21 indicate a large-scale Russian air attack involving 1x Onyx, 2x Kh-31P, and 96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator types), with UA Air Defense downing 42 Shahed-type UAVs and 47 "Imitator Drones" reportedly failing/lost due to Ukrainian Electronic Warfare. Impacts from this attack included damage in Kharkiv Oblast (residential fire, equipment damage, MLRS fires), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (fires, infrastructure damage, shelling of Marhanets), Cherkasy Oblast (infrastructure object damaged), and Kherson Oblast (Onyx targeting, explosions in Kherson city). Ukraine also confirmed damage from attacks on the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast on April 16/17, damaging an arms storage depot, barracks roof, and headquarters building.

II. Naval Activity

Russian Kalibr missile carriers are active in the Black Sea, confirmed launching missiles in the current attack. Two carriers were reported active as of 06:00 UTC, with a potential total salvo of 12+ missiles. An Italian Air Force (NATO) surveillance aircraft is active. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA UAVs over the Black Sea in the last hour. No enemy vessels were detected in the Sea of Azov. Three Russian warships are present in the Mediterranean Sea, including two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles). Transit continues through the Kerch Strait, with Russia persisting in disabling AIS. Widespread explosions have been reported across occupied Crimea due to a Ukrainian combined strike targeting multiple locations. Reports from Apr 20 indicate 1 Russian warship (Kalibr carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles) active in the Black Sea and 2 (Kalibr carriers, 12 missiles) in the Mediterranean Sea.

III. Frontline Operations

Russian forces maintain high offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (43 attempts today). A high number of combat clashes were recorded today (124). Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russian forces are regrouping and transferring troops and equipment from Crimea and Russia to the southern front for expected intensification. Heavy use of UAVs (including incendiary), KABs, and artillery continues. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, using drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and conducting tactical counter-attacks. Marinka is confirmed as extensively destroyed and under firm Russian control, heavily mined with abandoned defensive positions. OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia plans to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 9, continuing attacks on the Pokrovsk axis. Peskov reiterates Russia's condition for conflict end: Ukraine must withdraw forces from the four claimed oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson), have a neutral status, and recognize territorial realities. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" in the near future. RU milblogger promotes the role and effectiveness of the 49th Russian tank battalion in defending Kursk region, including a claimed duel between a T-62 and an Abrams. Promotion of the effectiveness of the Russian Uragan MLRS is also observed. RU source warns personnel about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors ("Jonik" sensor) with 1.5-2 meter activation range, stating they are dangerous during inspection or movement. RU MoD claims a Su-34 fighter-bomber destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point and launch site with guided aerial bombs. KABs are reported on Donetsk Oblast, and KABs/KARs on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

On the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast, repelling 23 RU assaults today. Intense Russian activity, including air strikes and shelling, continues. RU MoD claims repelling UA invasion attempts and inflicting over 170 casualties. RU sources claim clearing operations nearing completion in Hornal area and claim destroying a large concentration of UA equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast) using Iskander and Tornado-M. UA drone units are active on the Sumy direction. KABs have been launched on Sumy Oblast. From Apr 20, Ukrainian DShV (Air Assault Forces) captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and GSh ZSU reported stopping 16 Russian assault actions there. Russian sources share videos claiming RU VDV (Tula paratroopers) UAV operators are destroying Ukrainian equipment/personnel in Kursk border areas and RU 810th Marine Bde is "destroying militants and their equipment" in Hornal. In the Belgorod Border Zone, RU sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts and report ongoing fighting near Popovka and Demidovka. On the Kharkiv Direction, 4 Russian attacks were repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory today. The situation is complex but controlled. Russian forces continue air strikes and shelling. RU sources claim RU assault groups actively pushing into UA defense near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. On the Kupyansk Axis, one Russian attack was repelled today. Ukrainian forces may have recently advanced and potentially secured control over the northwestern part of Petropavlivka (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22). RU sources claim resumed "rolling attacks" and fighting for Kamenka and Kondrashovka. Russian engineering units were confirmed preparing Zherebets River crossings during the recent ceasefire (Apr 20). On the Lyman Axis, 20 Russian attacks were reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian sources claim continued fighting for tree belts and aiming for Ridkodub. RU forces achieved confirmed advances southeast of Yampolivka, and significant fighting is reported near Kreminna (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22). RU sources claim expanding the zone of control towards Torske. On the Siversk Axis, Ukrainian forces stopped 9 Russian offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske today, with 3 ongoing. Ukrainian 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion video shows stopping an assault, hitting RU personnel, motorcycles, and equipment with FPVs and drops. RU sources claim continued offensive actions near Hryhorivka.

On the Toretsk Axis, 25 Russian attacks were reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka. Russian sources claim successful advances near Tarasivka, towards Nelepivka, and entering Dachne. DeepState reports enemy continues to develop success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka, noting a flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka is being attempted. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows close combat engagements and successful elimination of Russian personnel in this sector. RU sources claim destruction of UA positions and personnel (commanders, signalmen) of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Druzhba using kamikaze drones. On the Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity), 43 Russian attempts were reported today (4 ongoing), following 53 yesterday. Russian sources claim resumed envelopment efforts and advances despite fierce Ukrainian resistance near Selydove. Ukrainian GSh reports significant RU losses on this axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, and other equipment. Intense fighting is reported around Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka (ISW, Apr 22).

On the Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Vremivka), Ukrainian units stopped 13 Russian offensive actions today (1 ongoing), after 17 yesterday. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports force accumulation for a large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9. RU sources claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne, disrupting UA rotation, and claim a Su-34 strike on a UA PVD in Bohatyr. Potential UA advance near Troitske was assessed by ISW (requires confirmation). Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk was reported on Apr 22. On the Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Polohy), 3 Russian attempts were reported today (1 ongoing), after 5 yesterday. Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. Ukrainian GUR units claim destroying over 100 pieces of Russian equipment and eliminating over 150 occupiers on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU forces achieved advances near Kam'yans'ke (northwest of Vasylivka) and within Dniprorudne (south bank of Kakhovka Reservoir) (DeepState, Apr 21). Over the past day (Apr 22), Russia conducted 359 strikes across 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including air strikes, UAV attacks, MLRS, and artillery, resulting in 1 civilian KIA and 40 WIA in Zaporizhzhia city and 165 reports of damage. RU claims targeting UA communication assets (Starlink, antenna, generator) in the Polohy direction and UAV control points/temporary deployment points near Orikhiv. On the Huliaipole Axis, no ground clashes were reported today, though significant fighting was reported by ISW on Apr 22. On the Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih Axis, an updated mass casualty event in Marhanets confirmed 9 KIA and 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) from an FPV drone striking a civilian bus. Marhanets declared 3 days of mourning. Continued RU shelling and FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion caused damage and new unspecified casualties. 1 WIA (72yo woman) was reported in Synelnikivskyi raion from shelling. KAB/UAV attacks damaged houses, an enterprise, and a power line in Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas. A drone damaged solar panels in Zelenodolska hromada (Kryvyi Rih), with no casualties. Cruise missiles from Kherson Oblast are reported moving towards Zelenodolsk/Kryvyi Rih, with subsequent course changes reported towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, Kirovohrad Oblast, west of Kropyvnytskyi, and towards Uman, and now dynamically tracked through Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Ternopil Oblasts. A new cruise missile launch from Kherson Oblast towards/through Zelenodolsk/Kryvyi Rih is also reported.

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

The planned ministerial meeting of UK, US, FR, DE, UA Foreign Ministers in London did not occur at the ministerial level; discussions proceeded between officials and experts. This postponement is attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions and a preference to first discuss a full ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reports, citing Ukrainian officials, that talks are stalled and Kyiv fears Trump might blame Ukraine for the failure of peace talks and cut off military aid. The WSJ also reports Donald Trump has admitted to aides that negotiations regarding Ukraine have been more difficult than he expected. White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt stated that Zelenskyy seems to be moving in the wrong direction in peace talks and is using "megaphone diplomacy," which the US finds unacceptable, indicating Trump's patience is running out. US Senator Marco Rubio is quoted by Russian sources as stating that if US-led talks fail, Ukraine could face harsher terms from Russia. The Financial Times reports, citing a source familiar with the London talks, that the UK, Germany, and France are trying to find a "landing zone" for a deal that could involve Ukraine moving "towards ceding territory" due to growing concern over the US's hardline position and Trump's impatience. Donald Trump, when asked if a potential US-Russia agreement included recognizing Crimea as Russian, stated he "just want[s] the war to end," and that he doesn't "care - if they are both happy, they both sign the deal," adding he has "no favorites" and wants the "deal to be made," thus avoiding a direct answer on Crimea's status.

President Zelenskyy has arrived in South Africa, where he met with President Ramaphosa and other representatives. He stated the visit aims to bring a "worthy peace," involve G20 countries in diplomatic efforts, secure PAR's participation in the international coalition for the return of abducted Ukrainian children, and strengthen cultural and educational ties.

Peskov stated Russia has no current plans for talks with Kyiv on stopping strikes on civilian objects but reiterated Putin's readiness to discuss if Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" (i.e., the decree banning talks with Putin), emphasizing the need to consider the "Easter ceasefire experience" and understand UA readiness for reciprocity. Peskov reiterated that Ukraine must withdraw troops from the regions incorporated into Russia to end the conflict. Peskov also stated that preparation is underway for a meeting between Trump and Putin, and that Trump's special envoy Whitkoff is flying to Moscow for a meeting on Friday. Peskov added that Putin respects Trump. Peskov stated Zelenskyy's resignation is not a Russian demand, but any documents signed by him could be contested due to his illegitimacy. Peskov also commented on willingness to discuss gas contracts if the US takes control of the network. Zelenskyy reposted a 2018 statement by then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reaffirming US policy of non-recognition of Russia's claimed sovereignty over territory seized by force, including Crimea, after Trump's recent comments. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu claims Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire 4,900 times in 30 hours. Politico reports that the White House is considering lifting sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

Ukraine's official position remains no surrender, rejecting a "frozen war" and territorial concessions before a full ceasefire. Territorial integrity, including Crimea, is non-negotiable. Ukraine conveyed its position to US Special Envoy Kellogg in London, emphasizing its consistent stance, a ceasefire, and security guarantees. Ukraine is also working on finalizing an agreement with the US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources (e.g., Titanium). The UK, France, and Germany are reportedly open to de facto recognition of the current line of control for robust security guarantees ("Korean War-style" truce), but the EU reportedly opposes lifting sanctions before negotiations conclude and opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian. Shoigu stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" soon and claimed the West is provoking destabilization in Russia, Moldova, and Transcaucasia due to failed plans in Ukraine. He also stated that European countries are preparing for war with Russia by 2030, citing timelines of 3-5 years. Russia introduced personal sanctions against 21 British parliamentarians in response to London's "confrontational course". Shoigu did not exclude the resumption of Russian nuclear testing in response to similar actions by the United States. Yermak commented on the current Russian attack as demonstrating Russia's "desire to kill". Russian Duma deputies may reintroduce a bill for multi-child families' land compensation to match cadastral value. Russian state media report Donald Trump claims Russia is ready for a "deal" on Ukraine and only needs agreement with Zelenskyy, stating London talks were "good". Shoigu states threats to Belarus requiring Oreshnik system placement remain. Russia has begun enforcing the collection of an unpaid fine from Apple for failing to localize Russian data.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

Ukrainian:

• Civilian Casualties & Damage: Latest confirmed casualties in Kyiv are 2 killed and 54 injured (including 6 children and a pregnant woman), with significant damage to residential buildings (fires, destruction, people trapped under rubble), non-residential premises, cars, and garages across Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi (most affected), Holosiivskyi, and Podilskyi districts. Drone debris has fallen in the Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts. Damage also reported in Kyiv Oblast (damaged residential building/shop, forest fire, grass fire - no casualties). Kharkiv impacts include damage to private houses in Novobavarskyi and Osnov'yanivskyi districts during ongoing drone attacks, with Kharkiv Mayor reporting 19 strikes in the first wave tonight (7 cruise, 12 Shaheds) hitting a production enterprise and damaging multi-story and private homes. Other recent significant casualties include 9 KIA, 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) in Marhanets (bus FPV attack), 4 WIA in Kupyansk (KABs), 1 KIA, 40 WIA in Zaporizhzhia city (359 strikes Apr 22), 2 WIA in Odesa (earlier attack), 1 WIA in Synelnikivskyi raion, damage and unspecified casualties in Nikopolskyi raion, damage in Novopavlivska/Mezhivska and Zelenodolska hromadas. Mine contamination remains a significant issue. Emergency services are actively working at strike sites, including rescue operations in Kyiv.
• Losses Inflicted on RU (UA Claims): GSh reports significant RU losses on the Pokrovsk axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, 1 UAV antenna, 20 motorcycles, 5 UAVs, 1 ground drone, 1 trench EW, plus damaged equipment. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows successful elimination of Russian personnel in close combat on the Toretsk direction. Ukrainian Marine unit action resulted in the confirmed destruction of a Russian MT-LB and claimed elimination of 8 Russian assault troops. UA "Vartovi" drone unit claims destroying RU infantry and shelters on the Sumy direction. Commander of the Air Command "East" reports downing an enemy UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of the 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion stopping an assault on the Siversk direction, hitting RU personnel, motorcycles, and equipment. Ukrainian Flying Skull unit claims destroying 4 Russian soldiers with FPV drones on the Pokrovsk direction. 9 RU POWs were captured by UA DShV in Kursk Oblast (Apr 20). Capture of an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk (by 49th Assault Battalion) was reported.
• Losses (Confirmed/Observed RU): Significant disruption at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following a likely UA deep strike (Apr 22), with an estimated 1 sq km of the arsenal damaged by fires and ongoing detonations. Damage from Ukrainian attacks on the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast on April 16/17 was reported (arms depot, barracks, HQ). The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin (Zvezda correspondent) from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 has been confirmed by Russian sources. Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk (Colonelcassad video evidence, Apr 22). RU videos claim destruction of UA equipment/personnel by VDV UAVs in Kursk border areas and by 810th Marine Bde in Hornal.
• Capabilities: Active Air Defense and Electronic Warfare are employed (confirmed 67 strike UAVs intercepted, 47 imitators neutralized, 4 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported recently). Highly active drone operations continue for reconnaissance and strikes (FPV, coordinating ground assaults, destroying armor/equipment, remote mining, destroying RU radar, destroying RU infantry/shelters). RU sources warn personnel about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors ("Jonik" sensor). The Ukrainian General Staff confirms a successful long-range strike (1000+ km) on the RU UAV production plant in Tatarstan, claiming damage to a final assembly workshop. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports delivery of substantial aid including vehicles, 100 day cameras for drones, EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense project "Contract 18-24" has increased the number of participating brigades from 16 to 24, adding high-intensity combat units, for recruitment of younger personnel. Ukraine is reportedly seeking alternatives to Starlink satellite communications. Ukrainian Marines successfully employed FPV drones and Stugna ATGM. The UA 44th Artillery Brigade reportedly seen with a new "Bohdana" wheeled SPG on a Tatra Force 8x8 chassis, including camouflage netting ("mangal") for drone protection. Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish, and Lithuanian cooperation on joint CV90 procurement is linked to Ukraine's assessed needs and potential production in Ukraine. Finalizing an agreement with the US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources is underway. Ukrainian emergency services (DSNS) are active in responding to impacts from Russian attacks.
• Challenges: Sustained mass Russian UAV and missile attacks causing civilian casualties and significant damage to civilian infrastructure across multiple regions, straining emergency services and leading to a high number of injured requiring hospitalization, including vulnerable groups. Rescue operations are ongoing in Kyiv with people potentially trapped under rubble. Continued threat to command/control and communication nodes. Need for robust air defense remains critical.

Russian:

• Losses (UA Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). GSh reports significant RU losses on Pokrovsk axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), plus equipment. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian police video shows elimination of Russian personnel in close combat on the Toretsk direction. Ukrainian Marine unit action resulted in the confirmed destruction of a Russian MT-LB.
• Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Significant disruption at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following a likely UA deep strike, estimated damage area ~1 sq km. Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk (Colonelcassad video evidence, Apr 22). The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 is confirmed. RU claims 1 civilian fatality in Malomykhailivka (Belgorod) due to explosive device detonation. RU claims extensive damage to civilian houses from UA drones in Bryansk Oblast. 4 civilians reported injured near the Kirzhach arsenal. RU forces claim destroying approximately 10 UA UAVs over Voronezh Oblast. RU videos claim destruction of UA equipment/personnel by VDV UAVs in Kursk border areas and by 810th Marine Bde in Hornal.
• Capabilities: Sustained heavy UAV (Shaheds/Gerans, Lancets, recon, FPVs), KAB, missile (Kalibr, Iskander, Tornado-S, cruise missiles from strategic aviation - including 6 TU-95ms active), and artillery strikes continue. MiG-31K airborne, posing Kinzhal threat. Active tactical aviation, with threat noted on NE and Eastern directions. Increased Black Sea Kalibr capacity (12 missiles reported). Air Defense active over RU territory (claimed interceptions, including over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna and Voronezh). Claims targeting UA assets, including command posts, communications, and equipment concentrations, with RU MoD claiming Su-34 destroyed a UA UAV control point and launch site. Confirmed capture of Sukha Balka and claims of advances near Dachne/Toretsk, Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne, and southeast of Yampolivka. Use of EW, drones for coordinating assaults, adapted naval gun systems against drones, incendiary rounds ("Molniya"), and motorcycles ("samokaty"). Russian 27th Guards Motor Rifle Division soldiers shown training to breach obstacles and conduct artillery fire on the Pokrovsk direction. RU paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia front report using FPV drone tactic with a net to entangle UA drones. Russian sources claim destroying a large concentration of UA equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast) using Iskander and Tornado-M. Claims of destruction of UA positions and personnel (commanders, signalmen) of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Druzhba using kamikaze drones. Claimed Su-34 strike effectiveness in Bohatyr. Claim fleet and strategic aviation are involved in current strikes. Testing of a fully import-substituted Sukhoi Superjet 100 civilian aircraft with domestic engines was reported. RU milblogger promotes the effectiveness of RU tank operations in Kursk and Uragan MLRS. Shoigu stated that European countries are preparing for war with Russia by 2030 and did not exclude the resumption of Russian nuclear testing. RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of proximity sensor munitions ("Jonik"). Temporary restrictions imposed at Nizhny Novgorod airport. Shoigu states threats to Belarus requiring Oreshnik system placement remain. Russia enforcing collection of fine from Apple. RU milbloggers are soliciting donations for quadcopters for soldiers.
• Needs/Gaps: Fundraising appeals highlight the need for night vision devices, Mavic drones, drone detectors, and radios for the Zaporizhzhia axis (7th Guards Air Assault Division). Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient. A RU source reports finding a way to replace destroyed armored vehicles by sending personnel on scooters, highlighting logistical challenges. A need for anti-aircraft machine gun mounts for infantry suggests a need for decentralized low-altitude air defense. Reports persist of poor living conditions in a military town in Altai Krai (RU Source - Mobilization News, Apr 21).
• Personnel/Morale Issues: Capture of an African mercenary near Toretsk. A mobilized soldier from North Ossetia with severe injuries was reportedly sent back to the front line from the hospital with a festering wound, raising concerns about personnel management and treatment. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov suggested in an interview that captured Ukrainian "punishers" are subject to extrajudicial killing ("nobody will see them beyond the line of combat contact"). Butusov Plus video shows RU soldiers under drone attack near Toretsk, claiming one soldier committed suicide and another was hit by a drone. ASTRA reported on a raid on conscripts in a Moscow fitness club on April 22. Rosgvardia digital development head General Varentsov was arrested for fraud. Death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin.

VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security

Russia/Occupied Territories: Journalist placed on wanted list for 'fakes' about RU army. Putin signed law criminalizing discrediting RU Armed Forces. RU Info Ops continue (justifying strikes, border controls, energy claims). Temporary flight restrictions introduced and later lifted at Kaluga and Zhukovsky airports; restrictions introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport. RU forces claim destroying approximately 10 UA UAVs over Voronezh Oblast. Rosgvardia digital development head General Varentsov was arrested for fraud. Russia introduced personal sanctions against 21 British parliamentarians. RU sources claim enemy attempting to break through to Moscow, with explosions in Kolomna and RU forces shooting down drones in Moscow Oblast. RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors ("Jonik"). Colonelcassad posts video of Kursk resident claiming injury from UA drone, framing it as a war crime. Russia has begun enforcing the collection of an unpaid fine from Apple for failure to localize data. FSB reportedly stripped citizenship from two Russian comedians critical of the war. Police in Khabarovsk have detained suspects in a kidnapping case (internal criminal activity - likely unrelated to conflict). Ukraine: Temporary restrictions at Shehyni border crossing (Poland) due to repairs. Older: Allegations of police brutality in Kyiv against soldier's son. Poland (Previous): Stricter counter-intelligence law restricts photography of sensitive sites. Latvia: Introducing mandatory notification for Russian and Belarusian citizens entering from the Schengen zone due to internal security concerns.

VII. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

Confirmed Russian attacks targeting civilian infrastructure and causing civilian casualties continue across multiple oblasts, including the current large-scale attack impacting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv Oblast. Latest confirmed casualties in Kyiv are 2 killed and 54 injured, including six children and a pregnant woman, with significant damage to residential buildings, non-residential premises, cars, and garages, particularly in Sviatoshynskyi district where a residential building was partially destroyed and caught fire with people potentially trapped under rubble. Drone debris has fallen in the Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts. Kharkiv also sustained impacts, including damage to residential buildings (blown-out windows) and private houses in Novobavarskyi and Osnov'yanivskyi districts during continuous drone attacks, with a production enterprise also hit and multi-story/private homes damaged according to the mayor's report on the first wave of strikes tonight. The mass casualty event in Marhanets (9 KIA, 54 WIA) due to a Russian FPV drone striking a civilian bus exemplifies the direct impact of the conflict on civilians. The destruction of critical energy infrastructure in Kherson city/Oblast and the Russian drone strike hitting a hospital in Kostiantynivka raise serious concerns regarding adherence to international humanitarian law. Mine contamination remains a significant issue. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov's suggestion of extrajudicial killing of captured Ukrainian "punishers" raises serious concerns about potential war crimes. Putin's acknowledgement of a strike on a civilian facility in Sumy (Apr 21), framed as retribution, underscores the continued risk to civilian life and infrastructure and raises concerns about distinction and proportionality. Medvedev used derogatory language against European and Ukrainian leadership. Russian sources claim deliberate Ukrainian targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure in Russian border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk) and occupied territories (Lysychansk, Nova Mayachka, Konstantynopil), alleging casualties and damage. These claims require independent verification but allege LOAC violations by Ukrainian forces. A RU source shared alleged testimony from a Kursk resident claiming injury from a Ukrainian drone attack on March 4th, presented as evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities". Yermak commented on the current Russian attack as demonstrating Russia's "desire to kill". RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors, framing them as dangerous to personnel. Shoigu claims Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire 4,900 times in 30 hours, likely intended to frame Ukraine as responsible for renewed hostilities impacting civilians. Emergency services in Kyiv are conducting rescue operations for those potentially trapped under rubble. Russian claims include targeting the Preobrazhensky Church in Hornal with FPV drones, allegedly striking Ukrainian positions within a religious site, which would constitute a potential LOAC violation. A Russian IO piece circulates alleging a Ukrainian fitness model was drugged and sexually assaulted by UA soldiers ("not Kharkiv guys"), framing this as irony and potentially seeking to undermine confidence in Ukrainian forces and recruitment.

VIII. Information Operations

Russian IO promotes claimed tactical successes and advances on various axes (Sukha Balka, near Toretsk/Dachne, Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne, Hornal), highlights Russian strikes (current multi-vector attack, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad impacts, Korovintsy CP claim, Su-34 Bohatyr, fleet/strategic aviation strikes, claiming Kyiv strikes targeted "enemy objects", RU video claims of VDV/Marine destruction of UA forces in Kursk border areas, RU MoD claiming Su-34 destroyed a UA UAV control point/launch site), emphasizes alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians and territory (claim of ~10 UA UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast, Belgorod, Bryansk, Malomykhailivka fatality, Lysychansk children injury claim, cumulative Kursk casualties, alleged drone injury in Kursk on March 4th presented as "atrocities", claimed FPV strike on Preobrazhensky Church in Hornal), claims Ukrainian drone activity over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna and Voronezh (claiming successful interceptions), warns personnel about alleged Ukrainian use of proximity sensor munitions ("Jonik"), claims Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire 4,900 times, and frames the London talks downgrade and US stance as Ukrainian inflexibility and weakness, blaming Zelenskyy. Russian sources amplify Trump and US criticism of Ukraine, reiterate Russian conditions for peace (Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed regions), deny frontline freeze reports, promote Russian military units, operations, and capabilities (EW, drones, adapted naval guns, Iskander/Tornado-M, tank operations in Kursk, Uragan MLRS, 6 TU-95ms active, MiG-31K airborne), and feature fundraising appeals (RU milbloggers showing procurement of quadcopters via donations). The Kirzhach incident is framed as a safety violation. The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin is used in IO. Reports on Marinka's destruction frame Russian control. Shoigu's statement about clearing the Kursk region is promoted. Preparation for a Trump-Putin meeting, the envoy's visit, Putin's respect for Trump, and Peskov's questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy and comments on negotiation terms are disseminated. The Russian Human Rights Ombudswoman's comment on Kursk residents in Sumy is reported. The testing of the import-substituted civilian Superjet 100 with a Victory Day logo is publicized. RU milbloggers express satisfaction with strikes on Kyiv ("Хохлы довыё…ись!!!", "Злобный лепрекон не хочет мириться, хохлы ответят за это.") and promote videos offering advice on avoiding casualties. Shoigu's statements about Western destabilization efforts and European war preparations by 2030 are reported by state media. Shoigu's comment on potential nuclear testing resumption is publicized. Discussion of the bill for multi-child families' land compensation is noted in RU media. Colonelcassad promotes narratives about Russia's historical success in integrating foreigners as "Russian by spirit" and notes returning to "info-строй" after leave. Russian state media report Donald Trump claims Russia is ready for a "deal" on Ukraine, only needing agreement with Zelenskyy, and stated London talks went "good". Shoigu's comments on threats to Belarus requiring Oreshnik system placement remain. Russia enforcing collection of fine from Apple. A Russian propaganda piece is circulating, alleging a Ukrainian fitness model was drugged and sexually assaulted by UA soldiers and using this narrative to undermine Ukrainian forces and propaganda. RVvoenkor promotes a new patriotic song/video linking WWII Victory Day commemoration to current operations. Ukrainian IO highlights Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure (current Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv Oblast impacts) as war crimes, providing casualty details (latest update for Kyiv: 2 killed, 54 injured including vulnerable groups, debris fall in Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts). Reports on successful Ukrainian strikes versus Russian territory and forces (Yelabuga UAV plant confirmed strike, Crimea combined strike, Kirzhach arsenal impact, destroying radar on Northern direction). Reports on Russian losses (GSh daily totals, Pokrovsk losses, UA unit claims, GUR claims). Showcases Ukrainian capabilities (AD/EW intercepts, drone effectiveness, new equipment like Bohdana SPG, CV90 procurement, Marine operations, mineral resources agreement with US, expanded recruitment, tactical aviation threat warning). Reports on the capture of Russian POWs (African mercenary, DShV capture). Reports on political/diplomatic challenges (London downgrade, WSJ report on Trump fears, FT EU territorial push, US criticism of Zelenskyy, Politico report on potential Nord Stream 2 sanctions lifting). Counter-IO against Trump via the Pompeo statement repost is used. Reporting on Russian internal issues and morale problems is disseminated. UA police video of close combat engagement on the Toretsk direction is used to demonstrate UA effectiveness. President Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa is publicized for diplomatic engagement focused on peace and international support, including the coalition for abducted children. Yermak explicitly frames current Russian attacks as demonstrating a "desire to kill" and demands a cessation of strikes on civilians. Some Ukrainian sources use satire/sarcasm regarding the political context and potential US actions (referencing Trump as "strategical aviation"). KMVA provides official updates on Kyiv attack consequences and PPO activity. Trump's recent statement on Crimea and ending the war is reported by Ukrainian sources.

IX. Potential Indicators

The ongoing large-scale Russian UAV and missile attack, involving confirmed Kalibr, ballistic, and strategic aviation launches (now confirmed 6 TU-95ms) and widespread Shahed activity across multiple vectors targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, and other locations, indicates Russia's continued strategy of integrated air/missile strikes targeting a wide range of locations, likely aiming to degrade infrastructure (energy, industrial, military), exert psychological pressure, and potentially overwhelm air defenses. The detailed real-time tracking of diverse Shahed movement vectors across multiple oblasts highlights the scale and complexity of this attack, suggesting an attempt to penetrate defenses across numerous axes and target various objectives simultaneously or in waves. The dynamic tracking of cruise missile courses from the South (changing from Zelenodolsk/Kryvyi Rih towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, then Kirovohrad/Cherkasy and towards Uman), new missile groups detected entering from the East (Sumy) and South, and moving towards Central Ukraine (Chernihiv, Poltava, Kyiv Oblasts), and the extensive dynamic tracking across Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Ternopil Oblasts further indicates adaptability in targeting or attempts to find penetration points against shifting air defenses. The addition of a MiG-31K airborne threat, carrying the Kinzhal missile, escalates the complexity and criticality of the air defense situation, requiring immediate nationwide alerts due to its speed and range. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, including extensive damage to residential buildings, multiple fires across several districts (most significantly Sviatoshynskyi with 6 fire locations and people potentially trapped under rubble), rapidly increasing casualties (now confirmed 2 killed, 54 injured, including vulnerable groups), and drone debris falls in multiple districts, underscore the significant risk to civilians and the deliberate nature of targeting areas with civilian presence. The high number of simultaneous threats (ballistic, cruise, Shaheds, Kinzhal, KABs/KARs on multiple axes) suggests an effort to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense. The confirmation of launch maneuvers by 6 strategic aviation aircraft indicates further imminent cruise missile launches, escalating the strategic threat. Impacts and damage to residential buildings and private houses and a production enterprise in Kharkiv's Novobavarskyi and Osnov'yanivskyi districts reiterate the threat to civilian areas outside the capital and confirm ongoing attacks in Kharkiv, with the mayor reporting a significant number (19 total) and mix (7 cruise, 12 Shahed) in the initial wave. Reports of Pavlohrad being under drone attack again with repeated impacts and missiles inbound (confirmed multiple times) confirm continued targeting of industrial/logistical hubs. The noted activity of tactical aviation on the NE and Eastern directions and KAB/KAR launches on Sumy, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk indicate ongoing use of aerial assets supporting ground operations and impacting border/frontline regions. The dynamic tracking of cruise missiles suggests a broad targeting strategy impacting central, eastern, and potentially western/southern Ukraine, testing and stretching air defenses across multiple regions, with a new launch detected from the Kherson area.

The confirmed Ukrainian combined strike on multiple locations across occupied Crimea is a significant kinetic event, demonstrating UA capability to conduct deep strikes against key RU military infrastructure and logistical hubs simultaneously across the peninsula. This will likely impact RU operations in southern Ukraine and require adjustments in RU force disposition and defense posture in Crimea. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Yelabuga UAV production plant in Tatarstan demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability and intent to target military-industrial facilities deep within Russia, aiming to degrade RU production capabilities. This, coupled with the ongoing impact from the Kirzhach arsenal incident, indicates successful UA efforts to disrupt RU logistics and material support for the front. RU claims of Ukrainian drone activity over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna and Voronezh, if confirmed, would indicate continued UA efforts to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory, potentially aiming at strategic or psychological targets, or diverting RU air defense assets. Lifting of temporary flight restrictions in some RU airports and imposing them in others (Nizhny Novgorod) suggests a dynamic response to perceived threats. RU claims of Su-34 strikes on Ukrainian UAV control points and launch sites indicate attempts to counter Ukraine's pervasive drone capabilities.

The significant number of combat clashes (124 today) and the high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (43 RU attempts today) indicate that RU forces continue to prioritize offensive operations, particularly in Donbas, likely aiming to achieve territorial gains towards stated objectives (Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9). The reported heavy RU losses on the Pokrovsk axis today, if sustained, could impact the long-term viability of this offensive. Russian confirmation of control of Sukha Balka and claimed advances near Dachne on the Toretsk axis, along with DeepState's assessment of a flanking maneuver possibility, indicates tactical gains by RU forces in this sector, potentially creating a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces defending Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. The Ukrainian police video demonstrating successful close combat engagements on this axis highlights localized tactical effectiveness in defense. Reports of troop transfers to the southern front suggest Russia anticipates or is preparing for an intensification of combat operations there. Russian IO promoting specific tank and MLRS capabilities suggests an effort to counter narratives about equipment losses and emphasize continued operational effectiveness. RU warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of proximity sensor munitions ("Jonik") suggest RU forces are encountering or anticipating encountering this type of munition or tactic, leading them to issue warnings to their personnel. Russian claims and videos purporting to show destruction of Ukrainian forces in Kursk border areas by VDV UAVs and Marines in Hornal indicate continued, albeit contested, ground and drone activity in these border regions.

The downgrading of the London peace talks, reports of alleged US proposals involving territorial concessions, criticism of Zelenskyy from US sources, Trump's statements about negotiation difficulty with Ukraine, the FT report of European partners potentially exploring concessions, and the Politico report on potential Nord Stream 2 sanctions lifting suggest a significant divergence in strategic approaches among Western partners and increasing pressure on Ukraine regarding negotiation terms. This poses a substantial risk to the consistency and scale of future Western support, which is critical for Ukraine's defense. Donald Trump's reported statement, avoiding a stance on Crimea recognition but emphasizing a deal where both sides are "happy," coupled with Russian state media reporting his claim that Russia is ready for a deal needing only Zelenskyy's agreement, suggests a potential alignment between Trump's desired outcome (deal regardless of terms satisfactory to Kyiv) and Russia's stated position (requiring Ukrainian concessions). This indicates potential future pressure from a potential Trump administration on Ukraine to accept less favorable terms. Ukraine's counter-IO using the 2018 Pompeo Declaration and President Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa highlight the strategic tension and effort to maintain a principled stance while seeking broader international engagement, particularly with the Global South.

Peskov's reiteration of Russia's maximalist conditions for peace (including UA withdrawal from claimed regions), plans for a Trump-Putin meeting and Trump envoy visit, and questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy indicate minimal prospect for a negotiated settlement on Ukraine's terms in the short term, reinforcing the likelihood of continued military conflict as the primary means of achieving objectives. His statement regarding no talks on stopping civilian strikes unless Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" suggests a willingness to continue targeting civilians as leverage. Shoigu's statement about clearing Kursk region signals increased focus on border security and potential future operations in that area. Shoigu's comments on European war preparations and potential nuclear testing resumption indicate Russia's framing of the conflict within a broader, potentially escalating confrontation with NATO/West. RU consideration of domestic legislation on land compensation for large families is a minor indicator of internal policy discussions. Shoigu's claim about extensive Ukrainian ceasefire violations is a clear IO tactic aimed at justifying renewed Russian aggression and potentially framing Ukraine as the aggressor. Shoigu's statement regarding the necessity of Oreshnik placement in Belarus linked to current threats reinforces the narrative of external threats driving Russian military posture. Russia's enforcement of the Apple fine indicates continued state action against foreign tech companies seen as non-compliant with domestic law, which is relevant to the broader geopolitical context but has limited direct military impact.

UA's expansion of the "Contract 18-24" recruitment program to high-intensity brigades indicates a strategic effort to reinforce key combat units, suggesting anticipation of sustained heavy fighting and/or preparation for future actions despite current personnel challenges. The joint European CV90 procurement effort further indicates European commitment to providing long-term, substantial armored vehicle support to Ukraine, potentially diversifying supply sources. The effort to finalize a mineral resources agreement with the US suggests strategic planning for post-conflict economic recovery and securing resources potentially important for future defense industries. Yermak's framing of the current attack highlights the ongoing nature of Russian strikes against civilians as a key element of the conflict narrative and a point of leverage for international support.

ASTRA's report on the alleged suggestion of extrajudicial killings of Ukrainian POWs by a BARS-Kursk deputy commander raises serious concerns about potential war crimes and could impact prisoner exchange processes and international perceptions of Russian conduct. RU IO attempts to use alleged Ukrainian drone attacks in border regions (like the claimed March 4th incident in Kursk) and specifically targeting a religious site (Hornal) are part of a broader strategy to portray Ukraine as targeting civilians and justify Russian actions. The RU IO piece alleging sexual assault within Ukrainian forces is a clear attempt to undermine morale and recruitment and sow discord. The RVvoenkor post promoting a patriotic song linked to WWII Victory Day and current operations is indicative of the heavy use of historical narratives in Russian state propaganda to mobilize support for the conflict.

The confirmed death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin highlights the human cost of the conflict, including for embedded media, and will likely be utilized heavily in Russian information operations. Russian sanctions against UK parliamentarians demonstrate the multi-domain nature of the conflict, extending beyond the battlefield into political and diplomatic spheres.

The IO piece on "Russian civilization's special path" and integration of foreigners reflects a state-supported narrative aimed at promoting national unity and historical justification for Russia's identity and actions in the context of the conflict. The Khabarovsk kidnapping incident appears to be a local criminal event with no direct military significance, but is noted under internal security reports. The RU milblogger appeal for drone donations underscores that despite state capabilities, specific units or requirements still rely on public support, highlighting potential resource allocation gaps or specific needs not fully met by central procurement.

Previous Report (2025-04-24 01:46:56Z)