As of Wed Apr 23 23:45:00 2025
A large-scale, multi-vector Russian UAV and missile attack is currently impacting central, eastern, southern, and northern Ukraine. Multiple Kalibr missiles confirmed launched from the Black Sea, tracked through Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Cherkasy Oblasts, with groups entering Kyiv Oblast (Bilotserkivskyi, Kaharlyk, Obukhiv/Vasylkiv areas) and one missile reported east towards Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv areas. Kalibrs from Cherkasy were reported towards Kyiv/Vinnytsia, and from Vinnytsia towards Zhytomyr Oblast. Two Kalibrs were reported moving towards Kharkiv from the west (near Nova Vodolaha/Merefa). Widespread Shahed drone activity continues across central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, with movement vectors towards Kharkiv (from Belgorod, Luhansk), central Sumy south and west, central/south Chernihiv towards Chernihiv and Kyiv, north Cherkasy towards Kyiv/Vinnytsia/southwest, north Donetsk northwest, north Sumy/Chernihiv southwest, from Kursk towards Sumy, in Vinnytsia Oblast towards Zhytomyr Oblast, in Bilotserkivskyi raion, western course in northern Poltava Oblast and near Konotop, at the intersection of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts (towards Pavlohrad).
Latest Shahed movement updates indicate activity:
Air Defense is active in Kyiv Oblast, including specifically against UAVs in Kyiv city, with explosions heard. Ballistic missile threats have been issued, with reports of launches from the east and from Voronezh/Bryansk (RU claims), including rapid targets on Kyiv and ballistic missiles towards Pavlohrad/Zaporizhzhia. Launches of cruise missiles from strategic aviation (Tu-95ms, Tu-160 reported, 4x Tu-95ms and 3x Tu-160 confirmed in air) have been recorded (Kh-101 type reported). Nationwide air raid alert is active across almost all of Ukraine.
Impacts have been confirmed in Kyiv, with falling debris and resulting fires in residential buildings, non-residential premises, cars, and garages in Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Holosiivskyi districts. Damage and fires also reported in Podilskyi district. Medics have been called to multiple districts in Kyiv. At least 21 people have been injured and hospitalized in Kyiv. A residential building fire in Sviatoshynskyi has resulted in destruction and people potentially trapped under rubble. Sviatoshynskyi district is reported as the most affected area in Kyiv, with fires at 6 locations and destruction. Explosions and repeated missile strikes have been confirmed in Kharkiv (7 reported impacts), with windows blown out in multi-story buildings in the Novobavarskyi district. Explosions were also reported in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Pavlohrad. Preliminary estimates suggest ~6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic and ~6 Kalibr cruise missiles targeted Kyiv, at least 3 cruise missiles targeted Kharkiv, and at least 2 ballistic and 3 cruise missiles targeted Pavlohrad.
In Kyiv Oblast, consequences of the attack are reported in three districts: Bucha (damaged 5-story residential building, shop fire), Vyshhorod (forest fire), and Brovary (grass fire). No casualties reported in Kyiv Oblast.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Russia conducted 1 missile, 76 air strikes (4 missiles, 74 KABs), 1128 kamikaze drones, and 4649 shelling incidents against Ukrainian positions and populated areas today (prior to the current wave). A RU milblogger reports a powerful strike on Kharkiv during the current attack. RU sources claim a combined Iskander and Tornado-S strike on an alleged command post of the 47th Mechanized Brigade near Korovintsy, Sumy Oblast, claiming destruction of the command post, communications, vehicles, and significant personnel losses. RU claims fleet and strategic aviation strikes are underway. RU sources also claim enemy attempts to break through to Moscow, with explosions in Kolomna and RU forces shooting down drones in Moscow Oblast.
Ukrainian sources report explosions in multiple locations across occupied Crimea (Sevastopol, Simferopol, Armyansk, Dzhankoy, Saky, Yevpatoriya) as part of a combined strike. The Ukrainian General Staff confirms a strike on a plant producing strike UAVs ('Geran-2'/Shahed type and others) in the Yelabuga district of the Republic of Tatarstan, located 1054 km from the state border, claiming hits and explosions in the target area and damage to the final assembly workshop. Ongoing detonations continue but are gradually ceasing at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following the likely UA deep strike (Apr 22); extensive forest fires persist, with an estimated 1 sq km of the arsenal damaged. Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station on the Northern direction using FPV drones. UA "Vartovi" drone unit claims destroying RU infantry and shelters on the Sumy direction. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA UAVs over the Black Sea and Kursk Oblast in the last hour (prior to the current attack). The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin (Zvezda correspondent) from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 has been confirmed by Russian sources. Overnight (Apr 22-23), RU MoD claimed interception/destruction of 11 UA UAVs over Tula (3), Belgorod (2), Kursk (2), Bryansk (1), Kaluga (1), Oryol (1), and Crimea (1) Oblasts. Reports from Apr 20-21 indicate a large-scale Russian air attack involving 1x Onyx, 2x Kh-31P, and 96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator types), with UA Air Defense downing 42 Shahed-type UAVs and 47 "Imitator Drones" reportedly failing/lost due to Ukrainian Electronic Warfare. Impacts from this attack included damage in Kharkiv Oblast (residential fire, equipment damage, MLRS fires), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (fires, infrastructure damage, shelling of Marhanets), Cherkasy Oblast (infrastructure object damaged), and Kherson Oblast (Onyx targeting, explosions in Kherson city). Ukraine also confirmed damage from attacks on the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast on April 16/17, damaging an arms storage depot, barracks roof, and headquarters building.
Russian Kalibr missile carriers are active in the Black Sea, confirmed launching missiles in the current attack. Two carriers were reported active as of 06:00 UTC, with a potential total salvo of 12+ missiles. An Italian Air Force (NATO) surveillance aircraft is active. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA UAVs over the Black Sea in the last hour. No enemy vessels were detected in the Sea of Azov. Three Russian warships are present in the Mediterranean Sea, including two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles). Transit continues through the Kerch Strait, with Russia persisting in disabling AIS. Widespread explosions have been reported across occupied Crimea due to a Ukrainian combined strike targeting multiple locations. Reports from Apr 20 indicate 1 Russian warship (Kalibr carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles) active in the Black Sea and 2 (Kalibr carriers, 12 missiles) in the Mediterranean Sea.
Russian forces maintain high offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (43 attempts today). A high number of combat clashes were recorded today (124). Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russian forces are regrouping and transferring troops and equipment from Crimea and Russia to the southern front for expected intensification. Heavy use of UAVs (including incendiary), KABs, and artillery continues. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, using drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and conducting tactical counter-attacks. Marinka is confirmed as extensively destroyed and under firm Russian control, heavily mined with abandoned defensive positions. OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia plans to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 9, continuing attacks on the Pokrovsk axis. Peskov reiterates Russia's condition for conflict end: Ukraine must withdraw forces from the four claimed oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson), have a neutral status, and recognize territorial realities. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" in the near future. RU milblogger promotes the role and effectiveness of the 49th Russian tank battalion in defending Kursk region, including a claimed duel between a T-62 and an Abrams. Promotion of the effectiveness of the Russian Uragan MLRS is also observed. RU source warns personnel about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors ("Jonik" sensor) with 1.5-2 meter activation range, stating they are dangerous during inspection or movement.
On the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast, repelling 23 RU assaults today. Intense Russian activity, including air strikes and shelling, continues. RU MoD claims repelling UA invasion attempts and inflicting over 170 casualties. RU sources claim clearing operations nearing completion in Hornal area and claim destroying a large concentration of UA equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast) using Iskander and Tornado-M. UA drone units are active on the Sumy direction. From Apr 20, Ukrainian DShV (Air Assault Forces) captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and GSh ZSU reported stopping 16 Russian assault actions there. In the Belgorod Border Zone, RU sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts and report ongoing fighting near Popovka and Demidovka. On the Kharkiv Direction, 4 Russian attacks were repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory today. The situation is complex but controlled. Russian forces continue air strikes and shelling. RU sources claim RU assault groups actively pushing into UA defense near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. On the Kupyansk Axis, one Russian attack was repelled today. Ukrainian forces may have recently advanced and potentially secured control over the northwestern part of Petropavlivka (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22). RU sources claim resumed "rolling attacks" and fighting for Kamenka and Kondrashovka. Russian engineering units were confirmed preparing Zherebets River crossings during the recent ceasefire (Apr 20). On the Lyman Axis, 20 Russian attacks were reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian sources claim continued fighting for tree belts and aiming for Ridkodub. RU forces achieved confirmed advances southeast of Yampolivka, and significant fighting is reported near Kreminna (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22). RU sources claim expanding the zone of control towards Torske. On the Siversk Axis, Ukrainian forces stopped 9 Russian offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske today, with 3 ongoing. Ukrainian 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion video shows stopping an assault, hitting RU personnel, motorcycles, and equipment with FPVs and drops. RU sources claim continued offensive actions near Hryhorivka.
On the Toretsk Axis, 25 Russian attacks were reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka. Russian sources claim successful advances near Tarasivka, towards Nelepivka, and entering Dachne. DeepState reports enemy continues to develop success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka, noting a flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka is being attempted. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows close combat engagements and successful elimination of Russian personnel in this sector. RU sources claim destruction of UA positions and personnel (commanders, signalmen) of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Druzhba using kamikaze drones. On the Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity), 43 Russian attempts were reported today (4 ongoing), following 53 yesterday. Russian sources claim resumed envelopment efforts and advances despite fierce Ukrainian resistance near Selydove. Ukrainian GSh reports significant RU losses on this axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, and other equipment. Intense fighting is reported around Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka (ISW, Apr 22).
On the Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Vremivka), Ukrainian units stopped 13 Russian offensive actions today (1 ongoing), after 17 yesterday. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports force accumulation for a large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9. RU sources claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne, disrupting UA rotation, and claim a Su-34 strike on a UA PVD in Bohatyr. Potential UA advance near Troitske was assessed by ISW (requires confirmation). Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk was reported on Apr 22. On the Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Polohy), 3 Russian attempts were reported today (1 ongoing), after 5 yesterday. Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. Ukrainian GUR units claim destroying over 100 pieces of Russian equipment and eliminating over 150 occupiers on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU forces achieved advances near Kam'yans'ke (northwest of Vasylivka) and within Dniprorudne (south bank of Kakhovka Reservoir) (DeepState, Apr 21). Over the past day (Apr 22), Russia conducted 359 strikes across 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including air strikes, UAV attacks, MLRS, and artillery, resulting in 1 civilian KIA and 40 WIA in Zaporizhzhia city and 165 reports of damage. RU claims targeting UA communication assets (Starlink, antenna, generator) in the Polohy direction and UAV control points/temporary deployment points near Orikhiv. On the Huliaipole Axis, no ground clashes were reported today, though significant fighting was reported by ISW on Apr 22. On the Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih Axis, an updated mass casualty event in Marhanets confirmed 9 KIA and 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) from an FPV drone striking a civilian bus. Marhanets declared 3 days of mourning. Continued RU shelling and FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion caused damage and new unspecified casualties. 1 WIA (72yo woman) was reported in Synelnikivskyi raion from shelling. KAB/UAV attacks damaged houses, an enterprise, and a power line in Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas. A drone damaged solar panels in Zelenodolska hromada (Kryvyi Rih), with no casualties.
The planned ministerial meeting of UK, US, FR, DE, UA Foreign Ministers in London did not occur at the ministerial level; discussions proceeded between officials and experts. This postponement is attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions and a preference to first discuss a full ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reports, citing Ukrainian officials, that talks are stalled and Kyiv fears Trump might blame Ukraine for the failure of peace talks and cut off military aid. The WSJ also reports Donald Trump has admitted to aides that negotiations regarding Ukraine have been more difficult than he expected. White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt stated that Zelenskyy seems to be moving in the wrong direction in peace talks and is using "megaphone diplomacy," which the US finds unacceptable, indicating Trump's patience is running out. US Senator Marco Rubio is quoted by Russian sources as stating that if US-led talks fail, Ukraine could face harsher terms from Russia. The Financial Times reports, citing a source familiar with the London talks, that the UK, Germany, and France are trying to find a "landing zone" for a deal that could involve Ukraine moving "towards ceding territory" due to growing concern over the US's hardline position and Trump's impatience.
Peskov stated Russia has no current plans for talks with Kyiv on stopping strikes on civilian objects but reiterated Putin's readiness to discuss if Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" (i.e., the decree banning talks with Putin), emphasizing the need to consider the "Easter ceasefire experience" and understand UA readiness for reciprocity. Peskov reiterated that Ukraine must withdraw troops from the regions incorporated into Russia to end the conflict. Peskov also stated that preparation is underway for a meeting between Trump and Putin, and that Trump's special envoy Whitkoff is flying to Moscow for a meeting on Friday. Peskov added that Putin respects Trump. Peskov stated Zelenskyy's resignation is not a Russian demand, but any documents signed by him could be contested due to his illegitimacy. Peskov also commented on willingness to discuss gas contracts if the US takes control of the network. Zelenskyy reposted a 2018 statement by then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reaffirming US policy of non-recognition of Russia's claimed sovereignty over territory seized by force, including Crimea, after Trump's recent comments.
Ukraine's official position remains no surrender, rejecting a "frozen war" and territorial concessions before a full ceasefire. Territorial integrity, including Crimea, is non-negotiable. Ukraine conveyed its position to US Special Envoy Kellogg in London, emphasizing its consistent stance, a ceasefire, and security guarantees. President Zelenskyy has arrived in South Africa for meetings with President Ramaphosa and other representatives, aiming to bring a "worthy peace," engage G20 countries in diplomatic efforts, secure PAR's participation in the coalition for the return of abducted children, and strengthen cultural/educational ties. Ukraine is also working on finalizing an agreement with the US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources (e.g., Titanium). The UK, France, and Germany are reportedly open to de facto recognition of the current line of control for robust security guarantees ("Korean War-style" truce), but the EU reportedly opposes lifting sanctions before negotiations conclude and opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian. Shoigu stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" soon and claimed the West is provoking destabilization in Russia, Moldova, and Transcaucasia due to failed plans in Ukraine. He also stated that European countries are preparing for war with Russia by 2030, citing timelines of 3-5 years. Russia introduced personal sanctions against 21 British parliamentarians in response to London's "confrontational course". Shoigu did not exclude the resumption of Russian nuclear testing in response to similar actions by the United States. Yermak commented on the current Russian attack as demonstrating Russia's "desire to kill". Russian Duma deputies may reintroduce a bill for multi-child families' land compensation to match cadastral value.
Ukrainian:
Russian:
Russia/Occupied Territories: Journalist placed on wanted list for 'fakes' about RU army. Putin signed law criminalizing discrediting RU Armed Forces. RU Info Ops continue (justifying strikes, border controls, energy claims). Temporary flight restrictions introduced at Kaluga and Zhukovsky airports. Rosgvardia digital development head General Varentsov was arrested for fraud. Russia introduced personal sanctions against 21 British parliamentarians. RU sources claim enemy attempting to break through to Moscow, with explosions in Kolomna and RU forces shooting down drones in Moscow Oblast. RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors ("Jonik"). Ukraine: Temporary restrictions at Shehyni border crossing (Poland) due to repairs. Older: Allegations of police brutality in Kyiv against soldier's son. Poland (Previous): Stricter counter-intelligence law restricts photography of sensitive sites. Latvia: Introducing mandatory notification for Russian and Belarusian citizens entering from the Schengen zone due to internal security concerns.
Confirmed Russian attacks targeting civilian infrastructure and causing civilian casualties continue across multiple oblasts, including the current large-scale attack impacting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv Oblast. Latest confirmed casualties in Kyiv are at least 21 injured and hospitalized. Significant damage to residential buildings, businesses, and other non-military structures is reported, particularly in Kyiv (Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Holosiivskyi, Podilskyi districts, with Sviatoshynskyi being the most affected with 6 fire locations and destruction including a residential building with people potentially trapped under rubble) and Kyiv Oblast (damaged residential building/shop in Bucha, forest fire in Vyshhorod, grass fire in Brovary). Kharkiv also sustained impacts, including damage to residential buildings (blown-out windows in Novobavarskyi district). The mass casualty event in Marhanets (9 KIA, 54 WIA) due to a Russian FPV drone striking a civilian bus exemplifies the direct impact of the conflict on civilians. The destruction of critical energy infrastructure in Kherson city/Oblast and the Russian drone strike hitting a hospital in Kostiantynivka raise serious concerns regarding adherence to international humanitarian law. Mine contamination remains a significant issue in areas like Nikopol and Marinka, causing civilian injuries. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov's suggestion of extrajudicial killing of captured Ukrainian "punishers" raises serious concerns about potential war crimes. Putin's acknowledgement of a strike on a civilian facility in Sumy (Apr 21), framed as retribution, underscores the continued risk to civilian life and infrastructure and raises concerns about distinction and proportionality. Medvedev used derogatory language against European and Ukrainian leadership. Russian sources claim deliberate Ukrainian targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure in Russian border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk) and occupied territories (Lysychansk, Nova Mayachka, Konstantynopil), alleging casualties and damage. These claims require independent verification but allege LOAC violations by Ukrainian forces. Yermak commented on the current Russian attack as demonstrating Russia's "desire to kill". RU sources issue warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of munitions with proximity sensors, framing them as dangerous to personnel.
Russian IO promotes claimed tactical successes and advances on various axes (Sukha Balka, near Toretsk/Dachne, Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne, Hornal), highlights Russian strikes (current multi-vector attack, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Korovintsy CP claim, Su-34 Bohatyr, fleet/strategic aviation strikes), emphasizes alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians and territory (Belgorod, Bryansk, Malomykhailivka fatality, Lysychansk children injury claim, cumulative Kursk casualties), claims Ukrainian drone activity over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna, warns personnel about alleged Ukrainian use of proximity sensor munitions ("Jonik"), and frames the London talks downgrade and US stance as Ukrainian inflexibility and weakness, blaming Zelenskyy. Russian sources amplify Trump and US criticism of Ukraine, reiterate Russian conditions for peace (Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed regions), deny frontline freeze reports, promote Russian military units, operations, and capabilities (EW, drones, adapted naval guns, Iskander/Tornado-M, tank operations in Kursk, Uragan MLRS), and feature fundraising appeals. The Kirzhach incident is framed as a safety violation. The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin is used in IO. Reports on Marinka's destruction frame Russian control. Shoigu's statement about clearing the Kursk region is promoted. Preparation for a Trump-Putin meeting, the envoy's visit, Putin's respect for Trump, and Peskov's questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy and comments on negotiation terms are disseminated. The Russian Human Rights Ombudswoman's comment on Kursk residents in Sumy is reported. The testing of the import-substituted civilian Superjet 100 with a Victory Day logo is publicized. RU milbloggers express satisfaction with strikes on Kyiv ("Хохлы довыё…ись!!!", "Злобный лепрекон не хочет мириться, хохлы ответят за это.") and promote videos offering advice on avoiding casualties. Shoigu's statements about Western destabilization efforts and European war preparations by 2030 are reported by state media. Shoigu's comment on potential nuclear testing resumption is publicized. Discussion of the bill for multi-child families' land compensation is noted in RU media. Ukrainian IO highlights Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure (current Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv Oblast impacts) as war crimes, providing casualty details (updated numbers for Kyiv). Reports on successful Ukrainian strikes versus Russian territory and forces (Yelabuga UAV plant confirmed strike, Crimea combined strike, Kirzhach arsenal impact). Reports on Russian losses (GSh daily totals, Pokrovsk losses, UA unit claims, GUR claims). Showcases Ukrainian capabilities (AD/EW intercepts, drone effectiveness, new equipment like Bohdana SPG, CV90 procurement, Marine operations, mineral resources agreement with US, expanded recruitment). Reports on the capture of Russian POWs (African mercenary, DShV capture). Reports on political/diplomatic challenges (London downgrade, WSJ report on Trump fears, FT EU territorial push, US criticism of Zelenskyy). Counter-IO against Trump via the Pompeo statement repost is used. Reporting on Russian internal issues and morale problems is disseminated. UA police video of close combat engagement on the Toretsk direction is used to demonstrate UA effectiveness. President Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa is publicized for diplomatic engagement focused on peace and international support, including the coalition for abducted children. Yermak explicitly frames current Russian attacks as demonstrating a "desire to kill" and demands a cessation of strikes on civilians. Some Ukrainian sources use satire/sarcasm regarding the political context and potential US actions (referencing Trump as "strategical aviation").
The ongoing large-scale Russian UAV and missile attack, involving confirmed Kalibr, ballistic, and strategic aviation launches and widespread Shahed activity across multiple vectors targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, and other locations, indicates Russia's continued strategy of integrated air/missile strikes targeting a wide range of locations, likely aiming to degrade infrastructure (energy, industrial, military), exert psychological pressure, and potentially overwhelm air defenses. The detailed real-time tracking of diverse Shahed movement vectors across multiple oblasts highlights the scale and complexity of this attack, suggesting an attempt to penetrate defenses across numerous axes and target various objectives simultaneously or in waves. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, including residential buildings, multiple fires across several districts (most significantly Sviatoshynskyi with 6 fire locations), rapidly increasing casualties (21 hospitalized), and people trapped under rubble, underscore the significant risk to civilians and the deliberate nature of targeting areas with civilian presence. The high number of simultaneous threats (ballistic, cruise, Shaheds) suggests an effort to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense. The confirmation of strategic aviation aircraft in the air indicates further planned missile launches. Impacts and damage to residential buildings in Kharkiv's Novobavarskyi district reiterate the threat to civilian areas outside the capital.
The confirmed Ukrainian combined strike on multiple locations across occupied Crimea is a significant kinetic event, demonstrating UA capability to conduct deep strikes against key RU military infrastructure and logistical hubs simultaneously across the peninsula. This will likely impact RU operations in southern Ukraine and require adjustments in RU force disposition and defense posture in Crimea. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Yelabuga UAV production plant in Tatarstan demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability and intent to target military-industrial facilities deep within Russia, aiming to degrade RU production capabilities. This, coupled with the ongoing impact from the Kirzhach arsenal incident, indicates successful UA efforts to disrupt RU logistics and material support for the front. RU claims of Ukrainian drone activity over Moscow Oblast/Kolomna, if confirmed, would indicate continued UA efforts to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory, potentially aiming at strategic or psychological targets, or diverting RU air defense assets.
The significant number of combat clashes (124 today) and the high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (43 RU attempts today) indicate that RU forces continue to prioritize offensive operations, particularly in Donbas, likely aiming to achieve territorial gains towards stated objectives (Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9). The reported heavy RU losses on the Pokrovsk axis today, if sustained, could impact the long-term viability of this offensive. Russian confirmation of control of Sukha Balka and claimed advances near Dachne on the Toretsk axis, along with DeepState's assessment of a flanking maneuver possibility, indicates tactical gains by RU forces in this sector, potentially creating a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces defending Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. The Ukrainian police video demonstrating successful close combat engagements on this axis highlights localized tactical effectiveness in defense. Reports of troop transfers to the southern front suggest Russia anticipates or is preparing for an intensification of combat operations there. Russian IO promoting specific tank and MLRS capabilities suggests an effort to counter narratives about equipment losses and emphasize continued operational effectiveness. RU warnings about alleged Ukrainian use of proximity sensor munitions ("Jonik") suggest RU forces are encountering or anticipating encountering this type of munition or tactic, leading them to issue warnings to their personnel.
The downgrading of the London peace talks, reports of alleged US proposals involving territorial concessions, criticism of Zelenskyy from US sources, Trump's statements about negotiation difficulty with Ukraine, and the FT report of European partners potentially exploring concessions suggest a significant divergence in strategic approaches among Western partners and increasing pressure on Ukraine regarding negotiation terms. This poses a substantial risk to the consistency and scale of future Western support, which is critical for Ukraine's defense. Ukraine's counter-IO using the 2018 Pompeo Declaration and Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa highlight the strategic tension and effort to maintain a principled stance while seeking broader international engagement.
Peskov's reiteration of Russia's maximalist conditions for peace (including UA withdrawal from claimed regions), plans for a Trump-Putin meeting and Trump envoy visit, and questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy indicate minimal prospect for a negotiated settlement on Ukraine's terms in the short term, reinforcing the likelihood of continued military conflict as the primary means of achieving objectives. His statement regarding no talks on stopping civilian strikes unless Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" suggests a willingness to continue targeting civilians as leverage. Shoigu's statement about clearing Kursk region signals increased focus on border security and potential future operations in that area. Shoigu's comments on European war preparations and potential nuclear testing resumption indicate Russia's framing of the conflict within a broader, potentially escalating confrontation with NATO/West. RU consideration of domestic legislation on land compensation for large families is a minor indicator of internal policy discussions.
UA's expansion of the "Contract 18-24" recruitment program to high-intensity brigades indicates a strategic effort to reinforce key combat units, suggesting anticipation of sustained heavy fighting and/or preparation for future actions despite current personnel challenges. The joint European CV90 procurement effort further indicates European commitment to providing long-term, substantial armored vehicle support to Ukraine, potentially diversifying supply sources. The effort to finalize a mineral resources agreement with the US suggests strategic planning for post-conflict economic recovery and securing resources potentially important for future defense industries. Yermak's framing of the current attack highlights the ongoing nature of Russian strikes against civilians as a key element of the conflict narrative and a point of leverage for international support.
ASTRA's report on the alleged suggestion of extrajudicial killings of Ukrainian POWs by a BARS-Kursk deputy commander raises serious concerns about potential war crimes and could impact prisoner exchange processes and international perceptions of Russian conduct.
The confirmed death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin highlights the human cost of the conflict, including for embedded media, and will likely be utilized heavily in Russian information operations. Temporary restrictions at Russian airports could indicate defensive measures against potential Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian sanctions against UK parliamentarians demonstrate the multi-domain nature of the conflict, extending beyond the battlefield into political and diplomatic spheres.
Previous Report (2025-04-23 23:16:38Z)