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Situation Report

2025-04-23 22:06:23Z
Previous Report (2025-04-23 21:36:19Z)

Military Situation Update

As of Wed Apr 23 22:05:00 2025

I. Strategic & Air Warfare

  • Major Russian Aerial Attack Underway: A large-scale, multi-vector Russian UAV and missile attack is currently impacting central, eastern, southern, and northern Ukraine.
    • Kalibr Missile Launches: Multiple Kalibr missiles confirmed launched from the Black Sea. Initial tracking showed targets moving north through Kherson Oblast (towards Beryslav area), into Mykolaiv Oblast (Bereznehuvate, then Bashtanka/Voznesensk districts), then into Kirovohrad Oblast (west of Kropyvnytskyi, one towards Oleksandriia), and subsequently into Cherkasy Oblast (majority group northwest, one towards Uman). A group has now entered Kyiv Oblast (Bilotserkivskyi, Kaharlyk areas) moving north towards Kyiv, while another missile from Kirovohrad is reported east towards Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv areas, and one from Cherkasy towards Kyiv Oblast. A group of 4-5 Kalibrs is reported specifically heading towards Obukhiv/Vasylkiv area in Kyiv Oblast.
    • Shahed UAV Activity: Widespread Shahed drone activity continues across central, eastern, and southern Ukraine. Updated movement vectors include groups towards Kharkiv (from Belgorod), central Sumy south, central/south Chernihiv towards Chernihiv, north Cherkasy towards Kyiv/Vinnytsia, north Donetsk northwest, north Sumy/Chernihiv southwest, a group from Kursk towards Sumy, a group in Vinnytsia Oblast towards Zhytomyr Oblast, a group in Bilotserkivskyi raion, groups on western course in northern Poltava Oblast, groups near Konotop and north of it on a western course, groups at the intersection of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts, groups near Kharkiv towards Balakliya, and groups near Balakliya on a southern course. A group on the border of Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts is moving towards Pavlohrad. New groups reported on north Sumy and Chernihiv moving southwest. Shaheds are approaching Kyiv from the north (Bucha/Hostomel, Brovary, Vyshhorod areas).
    • Air Defense Activity & Impacts: Air Defense is active in Kyiv Oblast, including specifically against UAVs in Kyiv city, with explosions heard. Nationwide air raid alert is active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Previous Russian Strikes: GSh ZSU reports RU conducted 1 missile, 76 air strikes (4 missiles, 74 KABs), 1128 kamikaze drones, and 4649 shelling incidents against Ukrainian positions and populated areas today. A RU milblogger reports a powerful strike on Kharkiv during the current evening/night attack. RU sources claim a combined Iskander and Tornado-S strike on an alleged command post of the 47th Mechanized Brigade near Korovintsy, Sumy Oblast, claiming destruction of the command post, communications, vehicles, and significant personnel losses (25+ commanders, 40+ signalmen). RU claims fleet and strategic aviation strikes are underway.
  • Ukrainian Strikes vs. Russian Territory/Forces: Ukrainian sources report explosions in multiple locations across occupied Crimea (Sevastopol, Simferopol, Armyansk, Dzhankoy, Saky, Yevpatoriya) as part of a combined strike, with RU milbloggers reporting AD active. Ukrainian General Staff confirms a strike on a plant producing strike UAVs ('Geran-2'/Shahed type and others) in the Yelabuga district of the Republic of Tatarstan, located 1054 km from the state border, claiming hits and explosions in the target area and damage to the final assembly workshop. Ongoing detonations but gradually ceasing at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following the likely UA deep strike (Apr 22); extensive forest fires persist, with an estimated 1 sq km of the arsenal damaged (approximately one-third of the facility). Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station on the Northern direction using FPV drones. UA "Vartovi" drone unit claims destroying RU infantry and shelters on the Sumy direction. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA UAVs over the Black Sea and Kursk Oblast in the last hour. The death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin (Zvezda correspondent) from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 has been confirmed by Russian sources.

II. Naval Activity

  • Black Sea: Russian Kalibr missile carriers are active, confirmed launching missiles in the current attack. Two carriers reported active as of 06:00 UTC, with potentially more involved. Estimated potential total salvo of 12+ missiles. Italian Air Force (NATO) surveillance aircraft is active. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA UAVs over the Black Sea in the last hour.
  • Sea of Azov: No enemy vessels detected.
  • Mediterranean Sea: Three Russian warships present, including two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles).
  • Kerch Strait: Transit continues; Russia persists in disabling AIS.
  • Crimea: Reports of widespread explosions across the peninsula due to a Ukrainian combined strike targeting multiple locations.

III. Frontline Operations

  • Overall Assessment: Russian forces maintain high offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (43 attempts today). High number of combat clashes recorded (124 today). Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russian forces are regrouping and transferring troops/equipment from Crimea and Russia to the southern front for expected intensification. Heavy use of UAVs (including incendiary), KABs, and artillery continues. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, using drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and conducting tactical counter-attacks. Marinka is confirmed as extensively destroyed and under firm Russian control, heavily mined with abandoned defensive positions.
  • Russian Objectives: OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia plans to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 9, continuing attacks on the Pokrovsk axis. Peskov reiterates Russia's condition for conflict end: Ukraine must withdraw forces from the four claimed oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson), have a neutral status, and recognize territorial realities. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" in the near future.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast, repelling 23 RU assaults today. Intense Russian activity, including air strikes and shelling. RU MoD claims repelling UA invasion attempts and inflicting over 170 casualties. RU sources claim clearing operations nearing completion in Hornal area. UA drone units active on the Sumy direction. RU sources claim destroying a large concentration of UA equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast). Shoigu stated the entire Kursk region will be "cleared".
  • Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory today. Situation complex but controlled. Russian forces continue air strikes and shelling. RU claims targeting UA manpower/equipment. RU source claims RU assault groups actively pushing into UA defense near Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
  • Kupyansk Axis: One Russian attack repelled today. Ukrainian forces may have recently advanced and potentially secured control over the northwestern part of Petropavlivka (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22).
  • Lyman Axis: 20 Russian attacks reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian sources claim continued fighting for tree belts and aiming for Ridkodub. RU forces achieved confirmed advances southeast of Yampolivka, and significant fighting is reported near Kreminna (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 22).
  • Siversk Axis: Ukrainian forces stopped 9 Russian offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske today, with 3 ongoing. Ukrainian 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion video shows stopping an assault, hitting RU personnel, motorcycles, and equipment with FPVs and drops.
  • Toretsk Axis: 25 Russian attacks reported today, with 4 ongoing. Russian forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka. Russian sources claim successful advances near Tarasivka, towards Nelepivka, entering Dachne. DeepState reports enemy continues to develop success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka, noting a flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka is being attempted. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows close combat engagements and successful elimination of Russian personnel in this sector. RU sources claim destruction of UA positions and personnel (commanders, signalmen) of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Druzhba using kamikaze drones, claiming significant personnel losses.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 43 Russian attempts reported today (4 ongoing), 53 yesterday. Russian sources claim resumed envelopment efforts and advances despite fierce Ukrainian resistance near Selydove. Ukrainian GSh reports significant RU losses on this axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, 1 UAV antenna, 20 motorcycles, 5 UAVs, 1 ground drone, 1 trench EW, 4 damaged vehicles, 3 damaged motorcycles, 3 damaged guns, 2 damaged mortars. Intense fighting reported around Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka (ISW, Apr 22).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Vremivka): Ukrainian units stopped 13 Russian offensive actions today (1 ongoing), 17 yesterday. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports force accumulation for a large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9. RU sources claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne, disrupting UA rotation. RU sources claim Su-34 strike on UA PVD in Bohatyr. Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk (Colonelcassad video evidence, Apr 22).
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Polohy): 3 Russian attempts reported today (1 ongoing), 5 yesterday. Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. Ukrainian GUR units claim destroying over 100 pieces of Russian equipment and eliminating over 150 occupiers on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU forces achieved advances near Kam'yans'ke (northwest of Vasylivka) and within Dniprorudne (south bank of Kakhovka Reservoir) (DeepState, Apr 21).
  • Huliaipole Axis: No ground clashes reported today. Significant fighting reported near Huliaipole (ISW, Apr 22).
  • Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih Axis: Updated Marhanets mass casualty event: 9 KIA, 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) from an FPV drone striking a civilian bus. Marhanets declared 3 days of mourning. Continued RU shelling/FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion caused damage and new unspecified casualties. 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnikivskyi raion from shelling. KAB/UAV attacks damaged houses, an enterprise, and a power line in Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas. A drone damaged solar panels in Zelenodolska hromada (Kryvyi Rih), no casualties.

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

  • Negotiations & US Stance: The planned ministerial meeting of UK, US, FR, DE, UA Foreign Ministers in London did not occur at the ministerial level; discussions proceeded between officials and experts. This postponement is attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions and preference to first discuss a full ceasefire. WSJ reports citing Ukrainian officials that talks are stalled and Kyiv fears Trump might blame Ukraine for the failure of peace talks and cut off military aid. The Wall Street Journal reports that Donald Trump has admitted to aides that negotiations regarding Ukraine have been more difficult than he expected. White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt stated that Zelenskyy seems to be moving in the wrong direction in peace talks and is using "megaphone diplomacy," which the US finds unacceptable, indicating Trump's patience is running out. US Senator Marco Rubio is quoted by Russian sources as stating that if US-led talks fail, Ukraine could face harsher terms from Russia. FT reports, citing a source familiar with the London talks, that the UK, Germany, and France are trying to find a "landing zone" for a deal that could involve Ukraine moving "towards ceding territory" due to growing concern over the US's hardline position and Trump's impatience. Peskov stated Russia has no current plans for talks with Kyiv on stopping strikes on civilian objects but reiterated Putin's readiness to discuss if Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" (i.e., the decree banning talks with Putin), emphasizing the need to consider the "Easter ceasefire experience" and understand UA readiness for reciprocity. Peskov reiterated that Ukraine must withdraw troops from the regions incorporated into Russia to end the conflict. Peskov also stated that preparation is underway for a meeting between Trump and Putin, and that Trump's special envoy Whitkoff is flying to Moscow for a meeting on Friday. Peskov added that Putin respects Trump. Zelenskyy reposted a 2018 statement by then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reaffirming US policy of non-recognition of Russia's claimed sovereignty over territory seized by force, including Crimea, after Trump's recent comments. Trump stated that negotiating with Ukraine proved more difficult than with Russia. Trump speculated he might meet Putin after a trip to Saudi Arabia. Russian Human Rights Ombudswoman Moskalkova stated Kyiv has not given a positive response regarding the return of Kursk residents remaining in Sumy.
  • Ukrainian Stance: Ukraine's official position remains no surrender, rejecting a "frozen war" and territorial concessions before a full ceasefire. Territorial integrity, including Crimea, is non-negotiable. Ukraine conveyed its position to US Special Envoy Kellogg in London, emphasizing its consistent stance, a ceasefire, and security guarantees. President Zelenskyy has arrived in South Africa for meetings with President Ramaphosa and other representatives, aiming to bring a "worthy peace," engage G20 countries in diplomatic efforts, secure PAR's participation in the coalition for the return of abducted children, and strengthen cultural/educational ties. Ukraine is also working on finalizing an agreement with the US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources (e.g., Titanium).
  • European Stance: UK, France, and Germany are reportedly open to de facto recognition of the current line of control for robust security guarantees ("Korean War-style" truce), but EU reportedly opposes lifting sanctions before negotiations conclude and opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian. FT report suggests major European partners are seeking a deal possibly involving Ukrainian territorial concessions.
  • Russian Stance: Russian sources actively dismiss Western reports of readiness to freeze conflict, emphasizing controlling "new regions." Kremlin reiterates readiness for talks if Ukraine lifts legal ban on negotiating with Putin. Peskov reiterates Russia's conditions for conflict end (UA withdrawal from claimed regions). Peskov stated preparation for a Trump-Putin meeting is underway, that Trump's envoy Whitkoff is flying to Moscow for a Friday meeting, and that Putin respects Trump. Peskov stated Zelenskyy's resignation is not a Russian demand, but any documents signed by him could be contested due to his illegitimacy. Peskov also commented on willingness to discuss gas contracts if the US takes control of the network. Shoigu stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" soon. ASTRA reports that BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov suggested in an interview with "Argumenty i Fakty" that captured Ukrainian "punishers" are subject to extrajudicial killing. RU milblogger Maryana Naumova published a report from Marinka, framing its destruction and desolation as the "Russian Marinka" waiting for hope, emphasizing the difficulty of capturing the fortified area. Russian report on testing a fully import-substituted Sukhoi Superjet 100 civilian aircraft with domestic engines was published, featuring an 80th Anniversary of Victory logo.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

  • Ukrainian:
    • Civilian Casualties & Damage: 9 KIA, 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) (Marhanets bus attack). 1 civilian fatality confirmed in Kharkiv city (previous shelling). 2 wounded reported in Odesa (civilian infrastructure damage). Previous attack update for Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported the total number of injured had risen to 42 (14 hospitalized). Falling UAV debris caused a fire at a hotel-restaurant complex and damaged private houses/farm buildings/warehouses in Kyiv's Brovarskyi district; no casualties reported. 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnikivskyi raion from shelling. Nikopolskyi raion continued shelling/FPV attacks damaged houses/farm building, resulting in new unspecified casualties. Drone damaged solar panels in Zelenodolska hromada (Kryvyi Rih), no casualties. KAB/UAV attacks on Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas damaged 12 houses, an enterprise, a power line, and caused a fire. Hospital in Kostiantynivka (Donetsk) hit by RU drone strike; no patient/staff casualties but damage confirmed. One civilian (62F) severely injured after stepping on a Russian mine in Nikopol city (Apr 21). 3 civilians injured from Shahed attack in Odesa (Night Apr 21). Updated Sumy strike casualties (35 civilians killed incl. 2 children, 120 wounded incl. 15 children - Apr 21). Critical energy infrastructure was destroyed in Kherson city/Oblast.
    • Losses Inflicted on RU (UA Claims): GSh reports significant RU losses on Pokrovsk axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, 1 UAV antenna, 20 motorcycles, 5 UAVs, 1 ground drone, 1 trench EW, 4 damaged vehicles, 3 damaged motorcycles, 3 damaged guns, 2 damaged mortars. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows successful elimination of Russian personnel in close combat on the Toretsk direction. Ukrainian Marine unit action resulted in the destruction of a Russian MT-LB and claimed elimination of 8 Russian assault troops. UA "Vartovi" drone unit claims destroying RU infantry and shelters on Sumy direction. Commander of the Air Command "East" reports downing an enemy UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion stopping an assault on Siversk direction, hitting RU personnel, motorcycles, and equipment. Ukrainian Flying Skull unit claims destroying 4 Russian soldiers with FPV drones on the Pokrovsk direction. Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk (Colonelcassad video evidence, Apr 22).
    • Capabilities: Active AD & EW (Confirmed 67 strike UAVs intercepted, 47 imitators neutralized, 4 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Highly active drone operations for reconnaissance and strikes (FPV, coordinating ground assaults, destroying armor/equipment, remote mining, destroying RU radar, destroying RU infantry/shelters). Ukrainian General Staff confirms successful long-range strike (1000+ km) on RU UAV production plant in Tatarstan, claiming damage to a final assembly workshop. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports delivery of substantial aid including vehicles, 100 drones (day camera), EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense project "Contract 18-24" has increased the number of participating brigades from 16 to 24, adding high-intensity combat units, for recruitment of younger personnel. Ukraine is reportedly seeking alternatives to Starlink satellite communications. Ukrainian Marines successfully employed FPV drones and Stugna ATGM. UA 44th Artillery Brigade reportedly seen with a new "Bohdana" wheeled SPG on a Tatra Force 8x8 chassis, including camouflage netting ("mangal") for drone protection. Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish, and Lithuanian cooperation on joint CV90 procurement linked to Ukraine's assessed needs and potential production in Ukraine. Finalizing agreement with US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources.
    • Personnel: 9 RU POWs captured (Kursk, Apr 20). Capture of an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk (Butusov Plus reports capture by 49th Assault Battalion, provided medical aid).
  • Russian:
    • Losses (UA Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). GSh reports significant RU losses on Pokrovsk axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), plus equipment. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian police video shows elimination of Russian personnel in close combat on the Toretsk direction. Ukrainian Marine unit action resulted in the confirmed destruction of a Russian MT-LB.
    • Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Ongoing significant disruption at 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast), estimated damage area ~1 sq km. Confirmed destruction of 1x German Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Swedish Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones near Pokrovsk (Colonelcassad video evidence, Apr 22). Death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin (Zvezda correspondent) from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 25 confirmed by Russian sources.
    • Capabilities: Sustained heavy UAV/KAB/missile/artillery strikes. Active tactical aviation. Increased Black Sea Kalibr capacity. AD active over RU territory (claimed interceptions). Claims targeting UA assets. Confirmed capture of Sukha Balka, claimed advances near Dachne/Toretsk, advances near Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne, advances southeast of Yampolivka. Use of EW, drones for coordinating assaults, adapted naval gun systems against drones, incendiary rounds ("Molniya"), motorcycles ("samokaty"). Russian 27th Guards Motor Rifle Division soldiers shown training to breach obstacles and conduct artillery fire on Pokrovsk direction. RU paratroopers on Zaporizhzhia front report using FPV drone tactic with a net to entangle UA drones. RU sources claim destroying a large concentration of UA equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy Oblast) using Iskander and Tornado-M. Russian sources claim destruction of UA positions and personnel (commanders, signalmen) of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Druzhba using kamikaze drones, claiming significant personnel losses (25+ commanders, 40+ signalmen) and hitting a CP, comms, vehicles. Claimed Su-34 strike effectiveness in Bohatyr. Claim fleet and strategic aviation involved in current strikes. Testing of import-substituted civilian Superjet 100 reported.
    • Needs/Gaps: Fundraising appeals highlight need for night vision devices, Mavic drones, drone detectors, radios, 5.45mm magazines for Zaporizhzhia axis (7th Guards Air Assault Division). Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient. RU source reports finding way to replace destroyed armored vehicles by sending personnel on scooters, highlighting logistical challenges. Need for anti-aircraft machine gun mounts for infantry suggests a need for decentralized low-altitude air defense. Reports persist of poor living conditions in a military town in Altai Krai (RU Source - Mobilization News, Apr 21).
    • Personnel/Morale Issues: Captured African mercenary near Toretsk. Mobilized soldier from North Ossetia with severe injuries reportedly sent back to front line from hospital with festering wound, raising concerns about personnel management and treatment. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov suggested extrajudicial killing of Ukrainian "punishers". Butusov Plus video shows RU soldiers under drone attack near Toretsk, claiming one soldier committed suicide and another was hit by a drone. ASTRA reported on a raid on conscripts in a Moscow fitness club on April 22. Rosgvardia digital development head General Varentsov arrested for fraud. Death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin.

VI. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

  • Civilian Impact (Ukraine): Confirmed mass casualty event in Marhanets (9 KIA, 54 WIA) due to RU FPV drone striking a civilian bus. Continued pattern of RU attacks impacting civilian infrastructure and causing casualties across multiple oblasts (Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Nikopolskyi, Synelnikivskyi, Kryvyi Rih). Critical energy infrastructure destroyed in Kherson city/Oblast. Hospital in Kostiantynivka (Donetsk) hit by RU drone strike. Mine contamination remains a significant issue (Nikopol, Marinka). Russian Human Rights Ombudswoman Moskalkova raised the issue of Kursk residents remaining in Sumy.
  • Civilian Impact (Russia/Occupied Areas): RU claims 1 civilian fatality in Malomykhailivka (Belgorod) due to explosive device detonation. RU claims extensive damage to civilian houses from UA drones in Bryansk Oblast. 4 civilians reported injured near Kirzhach arsenal. Mine contamination remains a significant issue in Kursk border areas. RU sources claim 4 WIA (2 9yo twin girls) in Lysychansk (LPR) from alleged UA shelling. Over 191 civilians killed and 372 wounded claimed in Kursk Oblast since the start of invasion (cumulative figures claimed by RU Investigative Committee). ASTRA reports a 13-year-old boy from Buryatia delivered aid to Russian soldiers on the front line with his father during school holidays, being present when an enemy drone hovered nearby, highlighting risks to minors.
  • LOAC Violations/Concerns: Confirmed Russian attack causing mass civilian casualties in Marhanets (FPV drone on civilian bus). Persistent Russian attacks impacting civilian infrastructure and destroying the Kherson energy facility. Russian drone strike hitting hospital in Kostiantynivka. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander Timur Syrtlanov suggested in an interview that captured Ukrainian "punishers" are subject to extrajudicial killing ("nobody will see them beyond the line of combat contact"), which could be interpreted as a factual confirmation of extrajudicial executions and a potential war crime. The confirmed mine incident causing severe injury to a civilian in Nikopol today (Apr 21) raises concerns regarding indiscriminate mine use. Putin's acknowledgement of the strike on a civilian facility in Sumy (Apr 21), framed as retribution, underscores the continued risk to civilian life and infrastructure and raises concerns about distinction/proportionality. Medvedev used derogatory language ("European freaks", "typhoid louse of Kiev") against European and Ukrainian leadership.

VII. Information Operations

  • Russian IO: Promoting claimed tactical successes and advances (Sukha Balka, near Toretsk/Dachne, near Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne, near Hornal), highlighting RU strikes (Kharkiv, Korovintsy CP claim, claimed Su-34 strike in Bohatyr, claimed fleet/strategic aviation strikes underway), emphasizing alleged UA attacks on Russian civilians/territory (Belgorod, Bryansk, Malomykhailivka fatality, Lysychansk children injury claim, cumulative Kursk casualties), framing London talks downgrade/US stance as Ukrainian inflexibility/weakness, blaming Zelenskyy, amplifying Trump/US criticism of Ukraine, reiterating RU conditions for peace (withdrawal from claimed regions), denying frontline freeze reports, promoting RU military units/operations, highlighting RU capabilities (EW, drones, adapted naval guns, Iskander/Tornado-S strike), fundraising appeals, reporting Kirzhach incident as safety violation. Using death of RU journalist (Nikita Goldin) from HIMARS strike as IO. Reporting on Marinka destruction to frame RU control. Promoting Shoigu's statement about clearing Kursk region. Promoting preparation for Trump-Putin meeting, Trump envoy visit, Putin's respect for Trump, and Peskov's questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy and comments on negotiation terms. Russian Human Rights Ombudswoman's comment on Kursk residents in Sumy. Reporting on testing of import-substituted civilian Superjet 100 with Victory Day logo.
  • Ukrainian IO: Highlighting Marhanets mass casualty attack and other RU attacks on civilians/infrastructure as war crimes, providing casualty details. Reporting on successful UA strikes vs RU territory/forces (Yelabuga UAV plant confirmed strike, Crimea combined strike). Reporting on RU losses (GSh daily totals, Pokrovsk losses, UA unit claims, GUR claims). Showcasing UA capabilities (AD/EW intercepts, drone effectiveness, Bohdana SPG, CV90 procurement, Marine ops, mineral resources agreement with US). Reporting on capture of RU POWs (African mercenary). Reporting on political/diplomatic challenges (London talks downgrade, WSJ report on Trump fears, FT report on EU territorial concession push, US criticism of Zelenskyy), counter-IO to Trump via Pompeo statement repost. Reporting on RU internal issues/morale problems. UA police video of close combat engagement on Toretsk direction used to demonstrate UA effectiveness. Publicizing President Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa for diplomatic engagement focused on peace and international support, including coalition for abducted children.

VIII. Other Relevant Information

  • Russian Internal Issues: Significant disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Civilian fatality in Malomykhailivka, Belgorod. Reports of poor living conditions in a military town. Rostselmash layoffs. ASTRA reports BARS-Kursk deputy commander suggesting extrajudicial killing of UA POWs. Raid on conscripts in Moscow fitness club. Rosgvardia general arrested for fraud. Death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin. Testing of import-substituted civilian Superjet 100 reported.
  • Latvia: Introducing mandatory notification for Russian and Belarusian citizens entering from the Schengen zone due to internal security concerns.
  • India-Pakistan: Border closure and military readiness due to terrorist attack in Kashmir.
  • Vatican: Nine-day mourning period for Pope Francis starting April 26.

IX. Potential Indicators

  • The large-scale Russian UAV and missile attack currently underway, involving confirmed Kalibr launches and widespread Shahed activity, indicates Russia's continued strategy of integrated air/missile strikes targeting a wide range of locations, likely aiming to degrade infrastructure (energy, industrial, military) and exert psychological pressure. The real-time tracking of missile trajectories provides insight into potential target areas (including Kyiv) and suggests an attempt to penetrate defenses across multiple axes.
  • The confirmed Ukrainian combined strike on multiple locations across occupied Crimea is a significant kinetic event, demonstrating UA capability to conduct deep strikes against key RU military infrastructure and logistical hubs simultaneously across the peninsula. This will likely impact RU operations in southern Ukraine and require adjustments in RU force disposition and defense posture in Crimea.
  • The significant number of combat clashes (124 today) and the high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (43 RU attempts today) indicate that RU forces continue to prioritize offensive operations, particularly in Donbas, likely aiming to achieve territorial gains towards stated objectives (Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9). The reported heavy RU losses on the Pokrovsk axis today, if sustained, could impact the long-term viability of this offensive.
  • Russian confirmation of control of Sukha Balka and claimed advances near Dachne on the Toretsk axis, along with DeepState's assessment of a flanking maneuver possibility, indicates tactical gains by RU forces in this sector, potentially creating a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces defending Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. The Ukrainian police video demonstrating successful close combat engagements on this axis highlights localized tactical effectiveness in defense.
  • The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Yelabuga UAV production plant in Tatarstan demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability and intent to target military-industrial facilities deep within Russia, aiming to degrade RU production capabilities. This, coupled with the ongoing impact from the Kirzhach arsenal incident, indicates successful UA efforts to disrupt RU logistics and material support for the front.
  • The downgrading of the London peace talks, reports of alleged US proposals involving territorial concessions, criticism of Zelenskyy from US sources, Trump's statements about negotiation difficulty with Ukraine, and the FT report of European partners potentially exploring concessions suggest a significant divergence in strategic approaches among Western partners and increasing pressure on Ukraine regarding negotiation terms. This poses a substantial risk to the consistency and scale of future Western support, which is critical for Ukraine's defense. Ukraine's counter-IO using the 2018 Pompeo Declaration and Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa highlight the strategic tension and effort to maintain a principled stance while seeking broader international engagement.
  • Peskov's reiteration of Russia's maximalist conditions for peace (including UA withdrawal from claimed regions), plans for a Trump-Putin meeting and Trump envoy visit, and questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy indicate minimal prospect for a negotiated settlement on Ukraine's terms in the short term, reinforcing the likelihood of continued military conflict as the primary means of achieving objectives. His statement regarding no talks on stopping civilian strikes unless Ukraine removes "legal obstacles" suggests a willingness to continue targeting civilians as leverage. Shoigu's statement about clearing Kursk region signals increased focus on border security and potential future operations in that area.
  • UA's expansion of the "Contract 18-24" recruitment program to high-intensity brigades indicates a strategic effort to reinforce key combat units, suggesting anticipation of sustained heavy fighting and/or preparation for future actions despite current personnel challenges. The joint European CV90 procurement effort further indicates European commitment to providing long-term, substantial armored vehicle support to Ukraine, potentially diversifying supply sources. The effort to finalize a mineral resources agreement with the US suggests strategic planning for post-conflict economic recovery and securing resources potentially important for future defense industries.
  • ASTRA's report on the alleged suggestion of extrajudicial killings of Ukrainian POWs by a BARS-Kursk deputy commander raises serious concerns about potential war crimes and could impact prisoner exchange processes and international perceptions of Russian conduct.
  • The confirmed death of Russian journalist Nikita Goldin highlights the human cost of the conflict, including for embedded media, and will likely be utilized heavily in Russian information operations.
Previous Report (2025-04-23 21:36:19Z)