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Situation Report

2025-04-21 10:12:30Z
Previous Report (2025-04-21 09:42:43Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine

As of Mon Apr 21 10:11:23 2025 (Data incorporates reports up to approx. 10:10 UTC)

I. Strategic & Air Warfare Overview

  • Ceasefire Expiration & Escalation:
    • Combat operations significantly intensified across all fronts following the expiration of the unilateral Russian ceasefire (00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). The Russian MoD officially announced the resumption of its "special military operation."
    • Russia claims strict adherence during the ceasefire but alleges 4,900 Ukrainian violations, including UAV sorties, shelling of border regions, and attempted ground attacks before expiry. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov reiterated RU MoD data on violations.
    • Ukraine maintains Russia repeatedly violated its own ceasefire, using the pause for reinforcement, resupply, fortification, and engineering preparations (e.g., confirmed Zherebets River crossings). Ukrainian officials reported nearly 3,000 RU violations in a single day prior.
  • Major Russian Air Attack (Night Apr 20-21 & Morning Apr 21):
    • Composition: A large-scale attack utilizing:
      • 1x Onyx anti-ship cruise missile (from Crimea towards Kherson Oblast).
      • 2x Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles (from Black Sea towards Mykolaiv Oblast).
      • 96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator types) launched from multiple locations in Russia and occupied Crimea.
    • Ukrainian Air Defense Response:
      • 42 Shahed-type UAVs confirmed intercepted.
      • 47 "Imitator Drones" reported neutralized (likely via EW) or failed to reach targets.
      • 0/3 cruise/anti-radiation missiles intercepted by official Air Force report (though separate field reports indicated a possible Kh-31P downing near Mykolaiv).
    • Russian Claims: Targeted military airfield infrastructure, ammunition/drone depots, and personnel concentrations in 74 areas. Claimed destruction of 104 Ukrainian UAVs over 24 hours. NEW RU Claim (Don_Partizan via Colonelcassad): Specific targets allegedly hit:
      • Chornobaivka (Kherson): Onyx missile hit buried command post (CP), claimed ~18 KIA, ~16 WIA UA personnel.
      • Figurivka (Kharkiv): 7x Geran-2 UAVs hit training polygon (National University of Civil Defence), targeting barracks (~40 personnel), engineer/comms equipment (UR-77, Kozak vehicles). Claimed destruction, disrupted training.
      • Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk): Strike on "Molochiy Dom" dairy facility, claimed dual-use (food packaging + logistics storage for containers/fuel). Fire reported.
      • Novomoskovsk (Dnipropetrovsk): Strike on "Geofizik" garden society area, allegedly housing UA 93rd Mech Bde tank battalion personnel post-UK training. Fire, building/vehicle damage claimed. No personnel loss info.
      • Cherkasy Airfield: 3x UAVs hit airfield territory undergoing prep for runway restoration/cargo reception. Claimed hits on airfield equipment (fuel trucks, workshops), hangar/meteo station under reconstruction, secondary detonations near engineering storage.
    • Confirmed Impacts: Civilian areas and infrastructure hit in Kivsharivka (Kharkiv Obl.), multiple communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pidhorodnenska, Pavlohrad, Mezhivska, Novopavlivska), and an infrastructure object in Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Ongoing Air Activity & Threats (as of 10:10 UTC):
    • NEW Missile Threat (Odesa): Missile danger declared for Odesa Oblast (~10:10 UTC).
    • NEW KAB Threat (Zaporizhzhia): Repeat launches of Russian guided aerial bombs (KABs) by tactical aviation towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported (~10:04 UTC). Previous launches reported ~09:48 UTC.
    • NEW KAB Threat (Donetsk): Russian tactical aviation launched KABs towards Donetsk Oblast (~09:44 UTC).
    • NEW Missile Threat (Zaporizhzhia): Missile danger declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (~09:43 UTC). Air alert announced region-wide.
    • Russian tactical aviation remains highly active along North-Eastern and Eastern axes, employing KABs and missiles. Russian sources report intensive air operations post-ceasefire.
  • Previous Day Summary (Apr 20): General Staff reported 96 combat clashes; President Zelenskyy noted significant Russian shelling (1882 incidents) and drone use (>950 FPVs).
  • Recent Ukrainian Strikes:
    • Claimed successful deep strike 25-30 km behind Russian lines near Pisky (Donetsk Obl.), hitting RB-301B Borisoglebsk-2 EW system and vehicles (post-ceasefire).
    • Claimed damage to a Russian Forpost reconnaissance/strike UAV (Apr 20).
    • Damage confirmed from earlier (Apr 16/17) Ukrainian attacks on the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast.
    • Confirmed (ASTRA Source): UA drone attacks on Apr 18-19 wounded at least 10 RU servicemen in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts (Barbino, Bryansk - 6 WIA, damaged Ural truck; Kondratovka, Kursk - 3 WIA; Grudskaya, Bryansk - 1 WIA).

II. Frontline Operations

  • Overall: High-intensity ground combat resumed immediately post-ceasefire. Russian forces maintain initiative across multiple axes; Ukrainian forces conduct defensive operations and localized counter-attacks.
  • Russian Strategic Objective (Stated): RU-installed official Saldo articulated the goal of denying Ukraine access to the middle/lower Dnipro River in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.
  • Claimed RU Advance Rate (RU Source - Slivochniy Kapriz): 17.6 km² per day average claimed gain between Apr 16-19 (Total 70.5 km²). Claimed 1.9 km² gain in Kursk/Sumy oblasts during this period. Verification needed.
  • Axis Updates (Based on GSh ZSU, RU MoD, Milbloggers, OSINT):
    • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
      • Apr 20: 39 Russian assaults repelled near Sukha Balka, Myrolubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriyivka, Rozlyv (GSh ZSU). Intense fighting continues.
      • DeepState mapping indicates Russian advances near Sukha Balka. Liveuamap source highlights UA defense against assaults in multiple settlements.
    • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
      • Apr 20: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards Stupochky, Bila Hora (GSh ZSU). Liveuamap source highlights clashes.
      • RU Assessment (Milblogger): Claims RU occupies most of Chasiv Yar city, citing cleared districts and ongoing street fighting. Acknowledges difficult urban terrain and significant impact of Ukrainian drones (specifically mentioning 427th "Rarog" BPS Regt). Assesses UA retains counter-attack potential.
      • RU Fundraising Appeal: Indicates need for drones, EW, comms, optics for 3rd Army Corps units active here.
    • Toretsk Axis:
      • Apr 20: 10 Russian attacks repelled near Druzhba, Toretsk, Leonidivka (GSh ZSU). Liveuamap source highlights clashes.
      • CRITICAL LOSS: Ukrainian soldiers confirmed KIA in a Russian ambush during the ceasefire period (Apr 20).
      • UA Success: 28th Mech Bde + adjacent units reported stopping RU motorcycle assault (Video released Apr 21).
      • RU Claim (Milblogger): Advance of over 800m within Dachne settlement near Horlivka (Apr 21, Geolocated).
      • DeepState mapping indicates Russian advances near Sukha Balka.
      • Previous RU claim of using chemical agent via drones (Apr 19) remains unverified but noted.
    • Lyman Axis:
      • Apr 20: 12 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiya, Myrne, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Nove, Yampolivka (GSh ZSU). Liveuamap source highlights clashes.
      • Confirmed Russian engineering activity establishing Zherebets River crossings during the ceasefire.
      • RU Claim (Milblogger): Expanded control zone S of Yampolivka by 1.5km, occupied positions towards Torske (Apr 21, Geolocated).
      • DeepState mapping indicates Russian advance near Novyi.
    • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
      • Apr 20: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Skudne, towards Otradne (GSh ZSU). Liveuamap source highlights clashes.
      • DeepState mapping indicates Russia occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka.
      • RU Claim (Apr 21): Destroyed Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone and a Starlink terminal using small arms and drone drop system (Voin DV source).
    • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
      • Apr 20: 4 Russian attacks repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove (GSh ZSU). Liveuamap source highlights clashes.
      • Apr 21 RU Reports: Describe intense post-ceasefire fighting. Massive Ukrainian artillery (including cluster munitions) and overwhelming FPV drone activity reported ("FPV drones fill the sky... front crackles from cluster munition bursts"). Russian logistics heavily impacted; RU forces using Mavic drones for forward troop water resupply due to inability to access positions under fire.
      • RU WARNING: Specialized Ukrainian counter-drone teams reported operating between Nesteryankу and Kam'yans'ke, actively hunting Russian drone operators.
      • AERIAL THREAT (Apr 21): Missile danger declared (~09:43 UTC), KAB launches reported (~09:48, ~10:04 UTC).
    • Kharkiv Axis:
      • Apr 21 Report (OTU "Kharkiv" via GSh ZSU): Situation assessed as complex but stable. Over past 24 hours: 1 Russian attack repelled near Krasne Pershe. Significant RU drone use (41 kamikaze) and shelling (184 incidents). Claimed RU losses: 44 personnel (26 KIA), 35 UAVs, 5 vehicles, 24 shelters, 1 ammo store destroyed. Liveuamap source highlights clash near Krasne Pershe.
    • Siversk Axis:
      • Apr 20: 3 Russian attempts repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Daryivka (GSh ZSU). Liveuamap source highlights clashes. RU Fundraising Appeal for 3rd Army Corps units active here.
    • Kupyansk Axis:
      • Apr 20: 1 Russian attack repelled near Holubivka (GSh ZSU). Liveuamap source highlights clash.
    • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson):
      • Apr 20: No Russian ground offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU). Continued RU shelling/drones. Onyx missile impact reported Apr 21.
      • RUSSIAN CLAIM (Apr 21): Strike destroyed a buried Ukrainian Command Post in Chornobaivka, alleging ~18 KIA, ~16 WIA UA personnel including command staff, potentially one British national. (Requires Independent Verification).
      • NEW RU Report (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 21): Claims situation unstable during ceasefire, alleges UA continued arty/FPV use, nighttime Baba Yaga drone drops/mining. Claims UA forces attempted actions in Oleshky (where small UA presence noted). Claims RU drones monitor area. Alleges arrival of additional UA drone crews on the right bank (Ukrainian-controlled side) of the Dnipro.
      • RU sources claim UA targeting civilian objects post-ceasefire.

III. Border Engagements (Kursk/Belgorod/Bryansk)

  • Ukrainian Actions:
    • Apr 20: GSh ZSU reported stopping 16 Russian assaults in the border area (Kursk region focus). Liveuamap source highlights repelled assaults.
    • Apr 20: 9 Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian DShV (Air Assault Forces) in Kursk Oblast (Video evidence released Apr 21). Identified POWs include two Ukrainian citizens from occupied Crimea serving in RU 810th Naval Infantry Bde (Andriy Yermakov b.1982 Bakhchysarai; Dmytro Afanasiev b.2003 Rozdolne). Butusov Plus also reported capture.
    • Apr 18-19 (ASTRA Source Claim): Ukrainian drone attacks wounded at least 10 RU servicemen in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts (Barbino, Bryansk - 6 WIA; Kondratovka, Kursk - 3 WIA; Grudskaya, Bryansk - 1 WIA). Claimed damage to RU military truck ("Ural").
  • Russian Claims & Activity:
    • Claimed multiple Ukrainian border crossing attempts repelled during/after ceasefire (Popovka, Hoptarivka, Krasnoyaruzhsky district - Belgorod; Oleshnia - Kursk).
    • Ongoing fighting reported near Hornal, Oleshnia (Kursk).
    • Claimed demining, evacuation, body recovery conducted during ceasefire near Sudzha (Kursk), allegedly under Ukrainian fire.
    • Claimed Ukrainian FPV attack wounded 3 civilians (incl. 2 children) in Nechaevka (Belgorod) (Verify).
    • Claimed >20 Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drones downed near Volchansk/Lyptsi (Kharkiv border area).
    • Claimed Ukrainian forces attacked evacuating civilians with FPV drones and attempted remote mining near Huyevo (Kursk) during evacuation (Apr 21 - Verify).
    • RU MoD Claims (Apr 21):
      • Claims strict adherence to ceasefire in Kursk direction during specified period.
      • Claims resumption of operations from 00:00 Apr 21 to "neutralize" UA formations in Kursk Oblast.
      • Claims up to 50 UA personnel losses, 1 IFV, 2 APCs, 1 AFV, 2 vehicles, 3 artillery guns destroyed in Kursk direction after ceasefire expiry.
      • Claims massive cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction since start of hostilities: >75,375 troops, 411 tanks, 336 IFVs, 311 APCs, 2,282 other AFVs, 62 MLRS (incl. 15 HIMARS), etc. (These cumulative figures are exceptionally high and lack independent verification).
    • Claimed UA targeting civilian objects post-ceasefire.

IV. Naval Activity

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian warship reported active (Kalibr carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles). Missile threat persists.
  • Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships reported active.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships reported active (Both Kalibr carriers, total potential salvo up to 12 missiles).
  • Kerch Strait: Maritime traffic noted; Russia continues disabling AIS transponders on vessels. Planned closure May 8-10.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

  • Ukrainian:
    • Aid & Support: Delivery of 10 minibuses to 5 Air Force/Naval Aviation brigades. Zaporizhzhia Oblast joined >$190M "Partnership for a Resilient Ukraine" program (funded by 7 nations) focusing on recovery/resilience, including support for communities within 30km of the frontline. Needs identified: EW systems, Mavic 3 drones. NEW: Zaporizhzhia implementing "Talking Statues" cultural project (QR codes on monuments) with NGO/business support, potentially boosting morale/resilience.
    • Capabilities: Effective FPV drone use (incl. deep strike near Pisky). Claimed destruction of 2 Russian MT-LBs by "Phoenix" unit drones (Donetsk Obl., video released Apr 21). Successful Shahed interceptions. Downed 3 Orlan recon UAVs (53rd Mech Bde). Counter-drone training ongoing (58th Motorized Bde). Specialized counter-drone teams actively deployed (Orikhiv axis). NEW: Arrival of additional UA drone calculation crews reported on Kherson right bank (RU source).
    • Recruitment/Morale: GSh ZSU highlighting story of US-based Ukrainian returning to fight (41st Mech Bde), calling for mobilization. RU sources continue highlighting alleged discontent with TCC mobilization efforts (video from Dnipropetrovsk Apr 21). NEW Legislation: Government proposes bill (No. 13193) to remove draft deferment for vocational/pre-higher education students starting after age 25; limits deferment for higher education students to standard program length (RBC-Ukraina).
  • Russian:
    • Losses/Damage: Confirmed damage to 112th Guards Missile Brigade base (Shuya). Claimed damage to Forpost UAV. Confirmed destruction of Borisoglebsk-2 EW system. 9 POWs captured (Kursk). At least 10 servicemen WIA in border drone strikes (Apr 18-19, ASTRA). 2 MT-LBs destroyed (Donetsk, Phoenix unit). Loss of Furia UAV claimed by RU, denied implicitly by UA Orlan claim. Death notices published for RU soldiers (Alexei Nepomnyashchiy). Reports of 2 RU soldiers (conscript, contract) found dead from single gunshot wound in Leningrad Oblast military unit (Gromovo, Apr 19), investigation ongoing (Sever.Realii).
    • Logistics/Needs: Persistent fundraising appeals indicate needs for drones, EW, NVGs, comms, thermals (esp. 3rd CAA on Bakhmut/Siversk/Chasiv Yar axes). Using Mavic drones for water resupply to front lines under fire (Orikhiv). Planned water shutdown in occupied Khartsyzk/Ilovaisk; water main break/road collapse in occupied Khutir Shirokiy. Poor living conditions reported for military families in Altai Krai base (gas outage, fires, lack of water, pests). RU milblogger promoting specific drone detector system ("Asel labs"). NEW: Video shows RU workshop assembling/modifying drones/explosives (Arkangel Spetsnaza).
    • Capabilities: Large-scale air/drone strikes. Claimed destruction of UA Starlink terminal (South Donetsk). Use of Onyx, Kh-31P missiles. Engineering capabilities demonstrated (Zherebets crossings). Claimed strikes on specific targets (Chornobaivka CP, Figurivka training ground, etc.). Video released showing bomber preparation by crew (Fighterbomber).
  • Allied Support & Capabilities:
    • NEW US UUVs: US Navy receives first two Lionfish UUVs (based on REMUS 300 platform, depth 305m, endurance 30h) for MCM, ISR, ASW, EW. Part of $347M contract for 200 units. Noted that UK previously supplied 6 REMUS 100 UUVs to Ukraine in 2022 (Dva Maiora).

VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security

  • Ukraine:
    • NEW Khmelnytskyi Arrest: SBU & National Police detained a 26-year-old local woman (Olena Kovalchuk, alleged drug user) accused of treason (Art. 111 Part 2). Allegedly recruited by RU GRU via Telegram (Mar 2025) to collect intel. Tasked with video recording military objects/equipment in Khmelnytskyi, rented apartment opposite military unit for surveillance. Allegedly targeted airfields and transit depots for weapons/ammo in Western Ukraine. Phone with correspondence seized. Held in custody without bail. (UA Prosecutor, Tsaplienko, Operativnyi ZSU).
    • SBU previously detained woman in Chernihiv Oblast accused of spying on military units/trains for FSB. Police detained man in Kamyanske (Dnipropetrovsk Obl.) for firing automatic weapon during dispute with soldier.
  • Russia/Occupied Territories: FSB detained resident in occupied Crimea accused of transmitting data on military objects (Gvardeyskoye airfield, AD sites, Simferopol railway, Foros defenses) to SBU. Interrogation video released (Dva Maiora).

VII. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions (POWs, LOAC Concerns)

  • Civilian Impact: Post-ceasefire RU strikes caused damage in Kivsharivka (Kharkiv), multiple Dnipropetrovsk communities, Cherkasy Oblast infrastructure. RU claims UA FPV strike wounded civilians in Nechaevka (Belgorod) and attacked evacuating civilians in Huyevo (Kursk) - Requires Verification.
  • LOAC Violations/Concerns:
    • Confirmed: Ukrainian soldiers KIA in Russian ambush on Toretsk axis during the declared ceasefire (Apr 20).
    • Confirmed: Russian FPV drone attacked a marked "Proliska" humanitarian aid vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) during the ceasefire (Apr 20), wounding occupants.
    • Russia heavily promoting narrative/video alleging UA attacked a RU evacuation group operating under white flags during the ceasefire (Requires Verification). Video released showing RU/UA groups meeting near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia) during ceasefire for body recovery (RVvoenkor).
  • Prisoners of War:
    • Successful POW exchange confirmed during ceasefire: 246 Ukrainian personnel returned for 246 Russian personnel (additional wounded also exchanged).
    • 9 Russian POWs captured by Ukrainian DShV in Kursk Oblast (Apr 20, video released Apr 21). Includes two Ukrainian citizens from occupied Crimea serving in RU 810th Naval Infantry Bde.

VIII. Political & Diplomatic Context

  • Ceasefire Narratives: Kremlin insists ceasefire was Putin's initiative, blames Kyiv for violations citing RU MoD data. Moscow states it will share violation data with interested parties.
  • Negotiation Stance (Russia): Peskov states Putin remains open to peaceful settlement talks, but process cannot be public. Kremlin positively views US statements about NATO membership for Ukraine being excluded, reiterating this as a core issue and threat to RU interests. No timeframe for settlement discussed.
  • International Developments: Pope Francis passed away; Russian President Putin expressed condolences, acknowledged Pope's role in dialogue with ROC. ROC delegation may attend funeral. Klaus Schwab resigned as WEF head. (These events have broader geopolitical context but limited immediate military impact).
  • Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski stated Warsaw cannot treat Ukrainians as citizens indefinitely (RU source reporting).
Previous Report (2025-04-21 09:42:43Z)