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Situation Report

2025-04-21 00:11:53Z
Previous Report (2025-04-20 23:41:51Z)

Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Mon Apr 21 00:11 UTC

I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations

  • Ceasefire Status & Violations (Ended 00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21):

    • The unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire expired with no extension confirmed (Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov via TASS).
    • Ukrainian Assessment (President Zelenskyy Report, 00:00 Kyiv Time, Apr 21):
      • Total 2,935 Russian violations of the ceasefire recorded on April 20.
      • 96 Russian ground assaults conducted across the front (highest intensity on Pokrovsk axis).
      • Russian assaults continued on the Kursk axis despite the declared ceasefire.
      • 1,882 Russian shelling incidents targeting Ukrainian positions and settlements (812 using heavy weaponry).
      • Over 950 Russian FPV drone uses.
      • Russia failed to respond to Ukrainian proposals for a longer ceasefire or cessation of strikes on civilian infrastructure.
    • Ukrainian Stance (Zelenskyy): Ukraine will maintain a "mirror-like" response: silence will be met with silence, defense against Russian strikes will involve Ukrainian strikes.
    • Russian Claims (MoD RU via RVvoenkor, post-ceasefire): Russia reiterated claims of widespread Ukrainian violations during the ceasefire period, citing 900 UAV strikes/drops, 444 artillery/mortar attacks, and alleged Ukrainian use of US HIMARS.
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed exchange occurred during the ceasefire period, reported format 246-for-246 (Rybar).

  • Russian Information Operations (IO) / Alleged LOAC Violation:

    • Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Operatsiya Z) intensified promotion of video and photos allegedly showing Ukrainian forces attacking a Russian evacuation group operating under two white flags during the ceasefire. Claims include attacks by kamikaze drones, drone-dropped munitions, and tank fire, resulting in 1 RU WIA. This incident is being heavily framed as a major Ukrainian violation of truce norms and LOAC.
    • Russian sources (Colonelcassad citing Lostarmour) published analysis claiming a sharp increase in the number of fallen soldiers' bodies returned to Ukraine in exchanges since Summer 2024, suggesting higher relative Ukrainian losses based on this metric.
    • Russian commentary (Starshie Eddy) dismissed effectiveness of HIMARS and compared Western assessments to defeated Nazi generals' memoirs.
    • Russian sources circulated allegations (Butusov Plus citing RU channels) that Russian commanders were interested in undermining the ceasefire to continue profiting from the deaths of soldiers (e.g., accessing bank cards of KIA). Relatedly, reported arrest of commanders ("Kasha," "Yakut") from the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade (allegedly former prisoners) for extortion.
    • Russian media (Colonelcassad/Wargonzo) highlighted difficult living conditions in Horlivka, citing ongoing risks from FPV drones targeting civilian vehicles/buses and artillery shelling.
    • NEW (RU Claim): Russian sources (RVvoenkor/Operatsiya Z) claim Ukrainian forces were observed actively evacuating bodies of their fallen soldiers near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia front) during the ceasefire period. Note this occurred while RU forces also conducted evacuations on the Orikhiv axis.

  • Geopolitical Developments:

    • Widespread reporting and commentary (multiple sources) on Donald Trump's statement expressing hope for a Russia-Ukraine agreement "this week," after which both countries could "do big business" with the US. Met with skepticism/criticism from both Ukrainian and Russian commentators.
    • Pope Francis, in his Easter address, called for an end to armed conflicts, specifically mentioning the need for peace in Ukraine and calling for the release of POWs and political prisoners (ASTRA).
    • Reports (Washington Post via Dva Mayora) indicate increasing discussion among European nations about investing directly in Ukraine's domestic defense industry as a way to sustain support, potentially using Ukraine as a "testing ground" for new weapons development, given dwindling allied stockpiles for direct donation.

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

  • Post-Ceasefire Russian Activity (Ongoing):

    • Reconnaissance UAVs: UA AF detected RU recon UAVs over Sumy Oblast (approx. 21:34 UTC) and Chernihiv Oblast (approx. 23:00 UTC). Potential Ukrainian AD engagement reported in Chernihiv.
    • Air Alerts: Air raid alerts declared in Sumy Oblast (approx. 21:46 UTC), Kharkiv Oblast (Missile threat, approx. 21:56 UTC), Donetsk Oblast (approx. 22:07 UTC). NEW: Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (approx. 00:00 UTC, Apr 21).
    • Tactical Aviation: UA AF reported activation of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern and eastern fronts, warning of the threat of air-launched weapons against frontline oblasts.
    • KAB Strikes: UA AF reported Russian tactical aviation launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast (approx. 22:00 - 22:05 UTC). Further KAB launches reported by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast (approx. 23:13 UTC).
    • Air-Launched Weapons Threat: UA AF warned of a threat of air-launched weapons for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (approx. 23:22 UTC).
    • Strike UAV Threat (Ongoing):
      • Initial threat declared for Chernihiv Oblast (approx. 23:27 UTC).
      • NEW: Threat extended to Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts (approx. 00:01 UTC, Apr 21).
      • NEW (UA AF Update, 00:05 UTC): Movement vectors for RU strike UAVs:
        • Eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading SW (towards Kyiv Oblast).
        • Sumy Oblast heading SW (towards Poltava Oblast).
        • Luhansk Oblast moving into Kharkiv Oblast, heading W.
        • NE Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading NW (towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
    • Reported Impacts: RU sources reported incoming strikes ("prilety") in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, and Ukrainian AD activity over Donetsk (approx. 22:12 UTC).
    • Artillery/MLRS: UA sources reported RU MLRS strikes targeting Orikhiv and artillery strikes on Kherson city (approx. 20:14 UTC).

  • Air/Drone Activity During Ceasefire:

    • RU Claim: Accused Ukraine of using heavy bomber drones near Chasiv Yar during the ceasefire; claimed Ivanovo VDV units successfully countered the attack (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
    • UA Action: Ukrainian drone strike resulted in the destruction of a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS (Butusov Plus video/report).
    • UA Action: Video released by 117th Mechanized Brigade ("Rubikon" RUBpAK unit) showing FPV strike on Russian personnel (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
    • UA Action: Video released by 225th Separate Assault Battalion showing precision strike (Operatyvnyi ZSU).

  • Logistics & Capabilities:

    • Potential EU Aid Shift: Focus potentially moving towards investment in Ukrainian domestic production (WP report).
    • China: Demonstrated a quadrupedal combat robot equipped with a stabilized turret and belt-fed machine gun (Colonelcassad).

III. Frontline Developments

  • Overall: Intensity remained high leading up to and immediately following the ceasefire expiry. President Zelenskyy reported 96 Russian ground assaults across the front on Apr 20. Pokrovsk axis remains the area of highest activity. Russian assaults reported ongoing on the Kursk axis during the declared ceasefire.
  • Donetsk Axis: Subject to renewed KAB strikes post-ceasefire (UA AF).
  • Chasiv Yar / Kramatorsk Axis: RU sources claim Ukrainian heavy drones were active near Chasiv Yar during the ceasefire period.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Subjected to Russian MLRS attack post-ceasefire (Sternenko). NEW: Subject to ongoing RU strike UAV threat (UA AF). NEW (RU Claim): Ukrainian forces reported conducting body evacuations near Robotyne during the ceasefire period.
  • Kherson Axis: Kherson city targeted by Russian artillery post-ceasefire (Sternenko).

IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations & LOAC Concerns:
    • Ceasefire failure resulted in continued hostilities and casualties.
    • Alleged UA Violation (Heavily Promoted RU IO): Russian sources aggressively disseminated video/photos allegedly showing Ukrainian forces attacking a Russian evacuation group under white flags during the ceasefire, claiming drone and tank attacks and 1 RU WIA. This constitutes a significant allegation of a grave breach of LOAC.
    • Alleged RU Commander Misconduct: Ukrainian sources amplified reports from Russian channels alleging that Russian commanders may have deliberately undermined the ceasefire for personal financial gain (profiting from KIA) and engaged in extortion (arrests reported in 55th MRB).
  • Civilian Impact:
    • Continued RU shelling and strikes reported on populated areas (Orikhiv, Kherson post-ceasefire).
    • Ongoing Air Threats: Active RU strike UAVs pose immediate threats to civilian populations in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potentially Kyiv Oblasts. Air raid alerts active in multiple regions.
    • RU sources documented difficult living conditions in Horlivka, citing ongoing risks from FPV drones targeting civilian vehicles and buses, and artillery shelling (Colonelcassad / Wargonzo).
    • Kharkiv: Fire reported in a 12-story residential building, requiring evacuation of 15 people (incl. 5 children). Cause under investigation, linkage to hostilities unconfirmed (RBC-Ukraina).
  • POWs & Fallen Soldiers:
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred during the ceasefire window (Rybar).
    • Pope Francis called for the release of POWs and political prisoners in his Easter message.
    • Body Exchanges/Evacuations: RU source (Lostarmour analysis via Colonelcassad) claims data shows a sharp increase in the number of bodies returned to Ukraine relative to Russia since Summer 2024, using this to argue higher UA losses. NEW (RU Claim): Russian sources report observing UA forces evacuating bodies near Robotyne during the ceasefire. RU forces also reportedly conducted evacuations on the Orikhiv axis during this period.
  • Casualty Reporting: UA source (Butusov Plus) highlighted an obituary notice for a Russian soldier from Cherepovets.
Previous Report (2025-04-20 23:41:51Z)