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Situation Report

2025-04-20 05:26:20Z
Previous Report (2025-04-20 04:55:43Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from Intelligence up to Sun Apr 20 05:24:08 2025)

I. Strategic & Information Operations Developments

  • Easter Ceasefire Status (Declared by Russia Apr 19, 19:00 Kyiv Time - Apr 21, 01:00 Kyiv Time):
    • CONFIRMED VIOLATIONS (Zelenskyy citing Syrskyi, 06:00 Apr 20 & GSh ZSU, 08:00 Apr 20): The declared ceasefire is not holding.
      • Between 18:00 Apr 19 and 00:00 Apr 20: 387 Russian shelling incidents, 19 Russian ground assault actions, and 290 Russian drone uses were recorded.
      • Between 00:00 and 06:00 Apr 20: 59 Russian shelling incidents and 5 Russian ground assault actions were recorded (OTU "Starobilsk": 1 clash; OTU "Donetsk": 3 clashes on Pokrovsk/Novopavlivsk axes; Zaporizhzhia: 1 clash near Stepove). Russian artillery and drone use also reported in Kursk Oblast during this period.
      • Humanitarian Impact: A civilian man (b. 1967) died from injuries sustained in a Russian attack on Stanislav, Kherson Oblast, at 19:12 Kyiv time on Apr 19, after the declared ceasefire start (ASTRA, RBC).
    • Ukrainian Stance (Zelenskyy, Apr 20; OSU "Khortytsia" via RBC, Apr 20): Russia is attempting to create an impression of ceasefire adherence while continuing attacks. Ukraine is conducting defensive operations and responding proportionally ("mirror actions") only to Russian attacks. The Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire extension remains valid, contingent on Russian compliance.
    • Russian Perspective (RU Sources - Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): Acknowledges fighting continued, claiming RU forces authorized to return fire. Some RU troops noted relative quiet overnight ("strange silence"). Ceasefire potentially used tactically for MEDEVAC. Framing ceasefire as RU gesture undermined by Kyiv/West.
    • NEW CEASEFIRE VIOLATION CLAIM (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 04:26): Alleges Ukrainian FPV drone use recorded in Belgorod and Kursk border regions during the declared ceasefire period. (Requires verification).
    • International Reaction (RBC, Apr 20): EU skeptical of RU ceasefire declaration, awaits sustained cessation. US Congressman Wilson criticizes declaration, calls Putin a war criminal.
  • Information Operations & Morale:
    • CONFIRMED (TASS/MoD RU, Apr 20): Russian state media released video depicting Orthodox priests conducting Easter religious ceremonies, blessing soldiers and icons for personnel of the "Center" Group of Forces (Pokrovsk Axis) and the "Sever" Group of Forces (Kursk/Belgorod border).
    • OBSERVED (Multiple RU/UA Sources, Apr 20): Continued widespread dissemination of Easter greetings and messages emphasizing faith, national unity, resilience, and proper conduct across military-affiliated channels (RU: Dnevnik Desantnika, Fighterbomber, Basurin, Aratamonov, WarGonzo, Arkhangel Spetsnaza; UA: Prosecutor General, UA Air Assault Forces - incl. 46th Bde, Syrskyi via GSh ZSU, Presidential Brigade Chaplain, ODA Heads Vilkul & Lysak, Shtirlits, Operatyvnyi ZSU, OTU "Kharkiv"). Used for morale boosting and reinforcing national narratives on both sides.
    • CONFIRMED UA Morale Initiative (@SerhiyNaiev via Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20): Over 6,000 Easter cakes (Paskas), blessed by Metropolitan Epifaniy at St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery, were delivered to Ukrainian defenders on the frontlines, including commanders and troops in the most contested areas. Emphasized as a sign of spiritual unity and support from the rear.
    • RU IO Claim (Kursk): Russian state media (RIA Novosti via Colonelcassad, Apr 20 04:27) released video claiming to show a large number of deceased Ukrainian soldiers' bodies in Guevo, Kursk Oblast, allegedly following failed retreat attempts. Attributed to RU "Sever" Group intelligence chief. (Propaganda element, requires verification of claims and context).
    • RU IO Claim (Mobilization): Russian source (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 04:59) alleges Ukrainian TCC (military recruitment) personnel are detaining men near churches during Easter services. (Unverified, potential IO targeting UA mobilization efforts).
  • Russian Global Force Posture:
    • CONFIRMED (Colonelcassad citing Syrian source, Apr 20): Russian airbase at El-Qamishli, Syria, reported fully operational with no signs of troop withdrawal. Video shows damaged Russian Beriev A-40 aircraft present. Confirms continued Russian military commitment outside Ukraine.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Warfare / Naval / Logistics Impact

  • Black Sea Naval Threat:
    • CONFIRMED & UNCHANGED (UA General Staff, 06:00 Apr 20): One Russian Kalibr missile carrier remains on combat duty in the Black Sea, capable of launching up to 6 Kalibr cruise missiles.
    • Status: No Russian naval assets reported active in the Sea of Azov. Two Kalibr carriers remain in the Mediterranean Sea (potential total volley of 12 missiles).
    • Kerch Strait Traffic (Past 24h): 6 vessels transited towards Black Sea (5 continuing to Bosporus); 6 vessels transited towards Azov Sea (4 arriving from Bosporus). Russia continues violating SOLAS convention by disabling AIS.
    • Assessment: Sustained direct naval missile threat from the Black Sea persists. Mediterranean assets provide additional over-the-horizon strike potential.
  • Overall Russian Strikes (Apr 19 - GSh ZSU 08:00 Apr 20 Report):
    • Total Clashes: 127 combat engagements.
    • Air Strikes: 103 strikes, utilizing 170 KABs across Ukraine.
    • Drone Attacks: 2,781 kamikaze drones employed.
    • Artillery/MLRS: 5,912 artillery shellings, including 115 MLRS attacks.
    • Targeted Areas (Air Strikes): Sumy Oblast (Ryasne, Velykyi Prykil, Stepok, Myropilske), Donetsk Oblast (Zelene Pole), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Novodarivka, Lukyanivske, Pavlivka, Stepnohirsk, Kamyanske, Novoyakovlivka).
  • Overnight Activity (Apr 19/20):
    • Russian Claim (Operatsiya Z, 05:21 UTC Apr 20): Claims no Russian air strikes were conducted against Ukraine overnight. Cites lack of reports from UA Air Force/monitoring channels. (Contradicts earlier strike reports and ongoing alerts, requires verification).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Lysak, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20): Night reported as quiet, without further attacks following evening strikes.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Strikes (Past 24h - ending morning Apr 20):
    • CONFIRMED (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 20 / GSh ZSU, Apr 20): Sustained high level of Russian activity reported across 18 settlements. GSh ZSU confirms air strikes on Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Novodarivka, Lukyanivske, Pavlivka, Stepnohirsk, Kamyanske, Novoyakovlivka. Initial OVA report cited 389 total strikes.
    • Casualties/Damage (OVA): 1 civilian (42M) wounded (Vasylivskyi district). 29 reports of damage to civilian property/infrastructure.
    • Russian Claim (Colonelcassad citing Soldieroffortune777, Apr 20): Following earlier Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia city (night Apr 19/20), RU sources claim target was an "automobile transport enterprise" allegedly repairing AFU equipment. (Requires verification).
  • Kharkiv Oblast Strikes (Apr 19 - Syniehubov, Apr 20):
    • Kupyansk City: Multiple KAB strikes.
      • 16:21: Private house damaged, no casualties.
      • 16:10: KAB strike ignited roof/outbuildings fire (200 sq m), 1 civilian (62F) WIA.
      • 05:30: KAB strike damaged 3 private houses, 2 civilians (M+F) suffered acute stress reaction.
    • Izium District (Novoplatonivka): 13:10: MLRS strike caused forest fire (4.5 Ha).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Strikes (Apr 19 Evening - Lysak, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20):
    • Velykomykhailivska hromada (Synelnykivskyi raion): MLRS strike damaged 7 private houses, hit power line. No casualties.
    • Marhanets hromada (Nikopolskyi raion): UAV dropped munition on a village. No casualties.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis Strikes (Bohatyr):
    • Russian Claim (Voin_DV, Apr 20 04:15): RU 14th Spetsnaz Brigade ("Vostok" Group) drone footage claims destruction of alleged UA shelter/position in Bohatyr, Volnovakha Raion.
  • Vremivka Direction Strikes (Novopavlivsk/Zaporizhzhia Border Area):
    • Russian Claim (Colonelcassad citing Voin_DV, Apr 20 04:03): RU 69th Separate Covering Brigade ("Vostok" Group) drone footage claims destruction of a UA mortar crew, a Starlink terminal, and personnel.
  • Kupyansk Axis Strike (Podoly):
    • Russian Claim (Colonelcassad citing Secrets_of_Vinakos, Apr 20): Drone footage claimed destruction of a UA pickup truck near Podoly, Kupyansk District by RU 16th Spetsnaz Brigade.
  • Ukrainian Strikes (Apr 19 - GSh ZSU, 08:00 Apr 20 Report):
    • Aviation, missile troops, and artillery struck:
      • 15 RU concentration areas (personnel, equipment).
      • 3 RU UAV control points.
      • 2 RU air defense systems.
      • 5 RU missile/artillery systems.

III. Axis Updates (Based on GSh ZSU 08:00 Apr 20 report for Apr 19 & early Apr 20 violation reports)

(Note: Primary source for Apr 19 actions is GSh ZSU morning report. Zelenskyy/Syrskyi report covers 00:00-06:00 Apr 20 ceasefire violations.)

A. Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity)

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 39 Russian attacks repelled near Sukha Balka, Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Bohdanivka, Troitske, Novotoretske, Svyrydonivka, Malynivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, and towards Stara Mykolaivka.
  • Early Apr 20 Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi): Part of 3 RU ground assaults reported in OTU "Donetsk" (which includes Pokrovsk) between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): RU "Center" Group forces renewed offensive, attacking outskirts of Myrolyubivka from direction of Novotoretske. (Note: GSh reported repelling RU attacks near Myrolyubivka on Apr 17; RU claimed advances there Apr 18).
  • RU IO/Morale: MoD highlighted religious ceremonies for "Center" Group forces active on this axis (Apr 20).

B. Toretsk Axis

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 18 Russian attacks repelled near Toretsk, Druzhba, Dachne, and towards Dyliivka. (Increased intensity compared to Apr 17/18 reports).
  • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): RU forces advancing near Tarasivka, north of Kalynove, Sukha Balka, and Valentynivka. (Previous RU claims of controlling Valentynivka & advances near Sukha Balka/Kalynove).

C. Lyman Axis

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 14 combat clashes. Russian forces attempted advances near Novomykhailivka, Nove, Yampilivka, and towards Torske, Hrekivka, Hlushenkove, Olhivka, Zelena Dolyna. Attacks repelled.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): Fighting initiated for Nove settlement and near Katerynivka. (GSh confirms clashes near Nove/Katerynivka).

D. Kupyansk Axis

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 7 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove, Kindrashivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): Heavy fighting near Stepova Novoselivka. Claimed expansion of RU control zone on western bank of Oskil River north of Kupyansk. Fighting for Mala Shapkivka with objective to cut UA supply routes from the north. (GSh reports repelled attack near Mala Shapkivka on Kharkiv axis).
  • RU Strike Claim (Apr 20): Destruction of UA pickup near Podoly claimed.

E. Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk)

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 12 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Kostyantynopil. (Increased intensity).
  • Early Apr 20 Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi): Part of 3 RU ground assaults reported in OTU "Donetsk" (which includes Novopavlivsk) between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Voin DV, Colonelcassad, Apr 20): "Vostok" Group continues push towards Otradne and Bohatyr. Claimed drone strikes destroying UA shelter in Bohatyr (14th Spetsnaz, Apr 20 04:15) and mortar/Starlink/personnel on Vremivka salient (69th Bde, Apr 20 04:03). (Previous RU claims of expanded control SE of Bohatyr and clearing treeline SE of Otradne).

F. Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia)

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 3 Russian attacks repelled towards Mala Tokmachka and near Novoandriivka.
  • Early Apr 20 Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi): 1 RU ground assault reported in the Zaporizhzhia direction near Stepove between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • High Intensity RU Strikes (Zaporizhzhia OVA / GSh ZSU, Apr 20): Confirmed high level of strikes across the oblast (OVA: 389 in 24h). GSh confirms air strikes on Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Novodarivka, Lukyanivske, Pavlivka, Stepnohirsk, Kamyanske, Novoyakovlivka.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): RU forces advancing near Shcherbaky and towards Orikhiv. Claimed entry into Mala Tokmachka and consolidation near Novodanylivka. Acknowledged heavy UA FPV drone use hindering RU operations.

G. Kramatorsk Axis

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 7 Russian attacks conducted near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Kurdyumivka. Attacks repelled.

H. Siversk Axis

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 2 Russian attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske.
  • Early Apr 20 Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi): 1 RU ground assault ("combat clash") reported in OTU "Starobilsk" (which includes Siversk/Lyman/Kupyansk) between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20. (Axis unspecified).

I. Kharkiv Axis

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 2 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Mala Shapkivka.

J. Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson)

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): No Russian offensive actions conducted.
  • Civilian Casualty (RBC/ASTRA Apr 20): Man (b. 1967) died from injuries sustained in RU attack on Stanislav on Apr 19 at 19:12 (after ceasefire start).
  • Ukrainian Activity Claim (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 04:05): Reports Ukrainian forces became active ("crawled brazenly") near Oleshky. RU forces responded with artillery and drone fire.
  • Overnight Status (Apr 19/20): Quiet reported in Nikopol district (Vilkul, Apr 20 04:32). UAV munition drop on Marhanets community reported yesterday evening (Operatyvnyi ZSU).

K. Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): 20 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast. Russia conducted 15 air strikes (25 KABs) and 356 artillery/mortar shellings (8 MLRS) in the border area (targeting UA positions/activity).
  • Early Apr 20 Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi): Russian artillery strikes and drone usage confirmed in Kursk Oblast between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • Ukrainian Activity Claim (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 04:26): Alleges Ukrainian FPV drone use recorded in Belgorod and Kursk border regions during the declared ceasefire period.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): Fighting continues near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod Oblast), claims UA offensive stalled with heavy losses. Casts doubt on earlier RU MoD report regarding capture of Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast), deeming it "premature". Claims continued RU strikes on civilian areas in Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod regions.
  • NEW RU IO Claim (Colonelcassad citing RIA Novosti, Apr 20 04:27): Video claims numerous deceased UA soldiers' bodies left behind in Guevo, Kursk Oblast. (Propaganda element).
  • RU IO/Morale: MoD highlighted religious ceremonies for "Sever" Group forces active on this axis (Apr 20).

L. Huliaipole Axis

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): No Russian offensive actions conducted. GSh ZSU confirms RU air strikes on Huliaipole.

M. Volyn/Polissia Axes

  • Apr 19 Status (GSh ZSU): No signs of RU offensive grouping formation detected.

IV. Capabilities & Logistics

  • Ukrainian:
    • Offensive/Defensive Ops: Successfully repelled 103 out of 127 reported Russian ground attacks on Apr 19 (GSh ZSU). Conducted strikes hitting 15 RU concentration areas, 3 UAV CPs, 2 AD systems, 5 Arty/Missile systems (GSh ZSU). Repelled 5 RU assaults in early hours of Apr 20 (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi).
    • Logistics/Comms: Targeted by RU strikes (Starlink terminal claimed destroyed on Vremivka direction). Alleged vehicle repair facility targeted in Zaporizhzhia (RU claim). Successful delivery of 6000 Easter cakes to frontline troops confirmed (Naiev).
    • Ground Activity (Kherson): Potentially conducting probing actions or reconnaissance near Oleshky (RU claim, Apr 20 04:05).
    • FPV/Drone Capability: Active use implied by high RU drone usage (GSh). Alleged UA FPV use reported by RU sources in border regions during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 04:26).
    • Vehicles: Loss of pickup truck near Podoly claimed by RU. Mortar crew loss claimed by RU on Vremivka direction.
    • Morale/Resilience: Official Easter messaging reinforces national unity (Multiple sources). High command acknowledges ongoing RU attacks despite ceasefire declaration. Significant morale boost operation delivering Easter cakes to frontlines (Naiev). Calls for continued public support/donations (Sternenko).
    • Mobilization: RU sources claim TCC activity near churches (potential IO).
  • Russian:
    • Naval Missile Capability: Sustained Kalibr threat from Black Sea (6 missiles) and Mediterranean (12 missiles).
    • Strike Capability (Apr 19): Executed 103 air strikes (170 KABs), 2781 drone attacks, 5912 artillery/MLRS strikes (GSh ZSU). Buk-M3 system effectiveness vs. Western missiles claimed, but vulnerability to UA drones acknowledged (Colonelcassad).
    • Reconnaissance-Strike: Continued effective use of drones for targeting (Claims: Bohatyr shelter, Vremivka mortar/Starlink, Podoly pickup).
    • Targeting Priorities: Claimed strikes on alleged vehicle repair facility (Zaporizhzhia), shelter (Bohatyr), mortar & Starlink (Vremivka) suggest focus on degrading UA logistics, C2/Comms, and fire support. Confirmed strikes hit civilian homes/infrastructure (Kupyansk, Dnipropetrovsk).
    • Ground Offensive Capability: Conducted 127 ground attacks on Apr 19 (GSh ZSU), repelled in 103 cases. Conducted 5 ground assaults despite declared ceasefire in early hours of Apr 20 (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi). Claims of advances persist across several sectors.
    • Information Operations: Employing religious/holiday themes for morale (Easter services for troops). Framing ceasefire situation to own advantage. Highlighting alleged UA losses/setbacks (Guevo video claim, Apr 20 04:27). Claiming UA TCC activity.
    • Logistical Concerns (Implied): RU source notes reliance on "humanitarian" drones in some Zaporizhzhia areas (Dva Mayora). Potential tactical use of ceasefire for MEDEVAC implied (Dnevnik Desantnika).

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations: Confirmed Russian shelling and ground assaults continuing after the declared start time, resulting in at least one civilian death (Stanislav, Kherson). RU sources also claim Ukrainian FPV drone use during the ceasefire period in border areas.
  • Civilian Casualties & Risk (Apr 19):
    • Kherson Oblast (Stanislav): 1 civilian KIA (M, b. 1967) from RU attack at 19:12 Apr 19 (after ceasefire start).
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk): 1 civilian WIA (62F), 2 civilians suffered acute stress reaction due to RU KAB strikes. Extensive damage to multiple private homes.
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 1 civilian wounded (42M, Vasylivskyi district). 29 reports of damage to civilian property/infrastructure.
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: MLRS strike damaged 7 homes, power line (Velykomykhailivska hromada). UAV strike in Marhanets community. No casualties reported from these incidents.
    • Black Sea: Persistent Kalibr missile threat endangers coastal and southern regions.
    • Border Regions: GSh reports significant RU shelling/air strikes impacting Kursk Oblast border areas (Apr 19). RU claims continued strikes impacting civilians in Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod.
  • Targeting Claims & LOAC: RU strikes demonstrably hitting civilian residential areas (Kupyansk, Stanislav, Dnipro oblast communities). RU claim of targeting alleged military repair facility in Zaporizhzhia needs verification regarding distinction and proportionality. Claims of targeting shelters/positions (Bohatyr, Vremivka) inherently risk civilian harm if located in populated areas.
  • SOLAS Violations: Russia's continued disabling of AIS on Kerch Strait shipping endangers maritime safety.
  • Treatment of Fallen: RU sources released video claiming large numbers of unrecovered UA bodies in Guevo, Kursk Oblast. (Requires verification; potential IO element regarding treatment of remains).
  • Mobilization Practices: RU claim of UA TCC activity near churches during Easter services raises concerns if verified.
Previous Report (2025-04-20 04:55:43Z)