Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 10, 2025, 18:59 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Assessments
Combat Intensity: Remains High across multiple fronts, particularly the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, South Donetsk, and Kursk/Sumy Border operational directions. Russian forces maintain offensive operations utilizing Guided Air Bombs (KABs/UMPK FABs), artillery, FPV drones, and ground assaults. Ukrainian forces are engaged in defensive operations and localized counter-attacks.
Russian Objectives: Assessed primary focus remains occupying remaining Donbas territory (Pokrovsk direction as main effort) and securing/expanding the border buffer zone (Kursk/Sumy).
Anticipated Russian Actions: Ukrainian officials (Deputy Head of OP, Palisa) and Russian sources anticipate a potential intensification of Russian offensive operations in late April-May 2025. The primary focus is expected on the Pokrovsk direction, with potential activity on Kupyansk, Lyman, Zaporizhzhia, and Novopavlivsk axes.
Kursk/Sumy Border:
Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast): Russian forces claim capture, supported by RU MoD video (flag raising) and sources (Basurin). Intense fighting persists; RU MoD claims repulsing a Ukrainian counter-attack. Significant claimed tactical gain for Russia requiring continuous monitoring. Russia previously confirmed control of Huyevo (Kursk) with visual confirmation of destroyed UA M2 Bradley/BTR nearby.
Makhnovka (Kursk Oblast): Russian sources (Investigative Committee) allege the discovery of 9 civilians killed by Ukrainian forces, presenting video evidence (Apr 10). Serious allegation requiring independent verification; heavily promoted by RU sources.
Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast Border): Situation reported tense; RU sources claim half the village is a grey zone (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 10), contrasting earlier RU claims of clearing. Video previously confirmed UA 225th Regiment tanks breaching "Dragon's Teeth" defenses near Demidovka.
Basivka (Sumy Oblast): Status remains contested following RU claim of capture (Apr 6) and UA denial/confirmation of combat (Apr 6).
Alleged War Crimes & Ethical Violations:
Piatykhatky (Zaporizhzhia): Ukrainian sources continue disseminating video evidence (AP) alleging the execution of 4 surrendered Ukrainian soldiers by Russian forces (March 13, 2025).
Makhnovka (Kursk): Russian allegation of civilian killings by UA forces (see above).
Ozerne (Zhytomyr Oblast, Apr 10): Shahed drone strike hit a 5-story residential building. One civilian Killed, Five civilians wounded (incl. child born 2011). At least 5 buildings damaged. RU sources claim strikes targeted Zhytomyr Tank Plant & Ozerne Airbase vicinity. Visual confirmation of aftermath available.
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Sustained Russian attacks resulted in 13 civilians wounded (4 critical) recently.
Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4): Confirmed Iskander-K cluster munition strike resulted in 19 KIA (incl. 9 children), 1 woman KIA by subsequent Shahed, >90 WIA.
Foreign Nationals:
President Zelenskyy confirmed investigation into captured Chinese nationals fighting for Russia; SBU interrogation video released. Reports indicate active Russian recruitment of Chinese via social media (Douyin), denied by China's MoFA.
Reported case of injured Uzbek mercenary (Redut PMC) allegedly denied promised Russian citizenship, payments, and adequate prosthetics (UA source).
International Military Support (Russia):
US INDOPACOM Commander Adm. Paparo stated North Korea is sending "thousands" of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to Russia.
Sanctions & International Pressure:
President Zelenskyy announced preparations for new Ukrainian sanctions packages targeting Russia's "shadow tanker fleet," propagandists, and certain influential domestic figures. Efforts ongoing to synchronize with partners.
Potential Foreign Troop Deployment (Ukraine):
AFP report, corroborated by Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine), indicates approximately 5-6 countries (including UK, France, Baltics) are actively considering providing troops for a mission in Ukraine. Germany is assessed as unlikely to join. US non-participation may not halt the initiative.
Diplomacy:
US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, plans to resign; resignation confirmed by US State Department.
RU-US consultations held in Istanbul regarding seized diplomatic properties.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Threats (as of 18:59 UTC):
Shahed Drone Threat:
Multiple groups active:
From Poltava towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
Group in Poltava Oblast moving SW.
From Mykolaiv towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
Group in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
Group active in northern Kirovohrad Oblast.
Previous alerts for Kryvyi Rih (from North) and Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast).
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Threat: Launches reported by Russian tactical aviation targeting eastern Kharkiv Oblast (approx. 18:46 UTC). Ongoing threat for frontline oblasts.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat previously active for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and NE regions; lifted as of 18:23 UTC.
Ozerne (Zhytomyr, Apr 10): Shahed strike hit residential building, 1 KIA, 5 WIA (incl. child). Visual confirmation of damage available. RU sources claim strikes near Zhytomyr Tank Plant and Ozerne Airbase.
New Russian Munition/Tactic:
Ukrainian authorities confirmed warnings of Russian UAVs dropping delayed-action fragmentation grenades, potentially along travel routes with unknown detonation times.
Ukrainian Air Defence & Counter-Drone:
High-Value Targets Destroyed (Claim): Video released claiming destruction of a Russian Pantsir-S1, a Kupol radar, and a Buk-M3 SAM system, directed by a Shark UAV.
Recon Drone Interception (Claim): Claimed downing of 3 RU Zala reconnaissance drones by FPV interceptors.
Air-to-Air Drone Combat: Ukrainian source (Sternenko) claims UA drone unit "ABWEHR" destroyed RU recon drone in aerial engagement. Russian source (Kotsnews) also claims RU Mavic drone destroyed UA Mavic drone.
New Munition Development: OTU "Kharkiv" reports development by Kharkiv engineers of a new drone-dropped fragmentation munition named "Foot Crusher" for use with heavy ("wedding") drones, claiming significant fragmentation effect up to 20m.
Russian Air/Drone Claims & Activity:
RU MoD claims downing 4 UA UAVs over Kursk Oblast (Apr 10). Daily briefing claimed 200 UAVs downed.
RU MoD released video claiming destruction of UA 'Baba Yaga' hexacopter via drone drop (Apr 10).
Claimed use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones ("KVN") effective against UA vehicles and EW. Video claim (Apr 10) of destroying UA Novator armored vehicle, M-80A, BREM-Ch, M113 near Chasiv Yar.
Claimed downing of 2x UA Leleka-100 and 2x A1-SM Furia UAVs on the Kherson direction using RU FPV drones.
Claimed Uragan MLRS strike on AFU assembly area in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction (MoD Russia video, Apr 10).
Showcased use of S-8 unguided rockets (loft-bombing technique).
Claimed use of Molniya-2 kamikaze drones (Pokrovsk axis & Sever Group deep rear strikes).
(Dnevnik Desantnika): Claims fighting ongoing in Bohdanivka, UA positions taken SW of village. Claims 300m advance near Preobrazhenka towards Troitske. Claims 200m zone expansion near Oleksiivka. Claims expanded control NE of Razdolnoye (4km wide, 1km deep). Claims RU forces entered southern Fedorivka, heavy fighting ongoing.
(Slivochniy Kapriz): Claims RU motorized rifle attack near Kurakhove. Geolocated imagery (approx. 48.077857, 36.991652) purportedly shows RU expanding control south of Bohdanivka by 1.5km. Requires verification.
RU MoD showcases 2S3 Akatsiya SPG use in this sector (Apr 10).
Alleged War Crime (Piatykhatky Area): Continued dissemination of video alleging Russian execution of 4 surrendered Ukrainian soldiers (March 13).
RU offensive operations reported ongoing from Kamenskye to Huliaipole (RU source, Apr 10).
RU claimed destruction of UA T-64BV tank via fiber-optic FPV drone in Novodanylivka (Apr 10).
RU claims strike on UA Base 1729 in Zaporizhzhia city (Apr 10). Air raid alert ended 18:57 UTC.
Kherson Axis (Left Bank):
No major ground changes reported.
RU sources claim successful RU FPV drone interceptions of UA recon UAVs (2x Leleka-100, 2x A1-SM Furia) in this area (Apr 10).
IV. Logistics, Capabilities & Technology
Russian:
Foreign Military Aid: US INDOPACOM Commander claims North Korea is sending "thousands" of SRBMs to Russia.
Drone Technology: Continued emphasis and claimed success of fiber-optic guided FPV drones (Chasiv Yar, Novodanylivka). Showcased Molniya-2 fixed-wing UAV for deep strikes (Sever Group). Claimed destruction of UA 'Baba Yaga' drone via drop. Claimed RU FPV drone interception of 4 UA recon UAVs (Kherson). Demonstrated establishment of UAV maintenance/repair/training workshops. Discussion on potential field modification of machine guns with thermal sights linked to tablets for anti-drone/USV capability.
Artillery/Missiles: Use of BM-27 Uragan MLRS (Pokrovsk), 2S3 Akatsiya SPG (S. Donetsk), MT-12 Rapira AT guns (Boguslav dir.), FAB-500 guided bombs, S-8 rockets (loft-bombing).
Logistics: Continued evidence of reliance on crowdfunding/volunteer groups for basic equipment like body armor (e.g., medic in 5th Tank Bde).
Ukrainian:
Air Defense: Urgent need for systems like Patriot reiterated.
Drone Technology: Continued successful employment of FPV drones for attack and interception (claimed 3 Zala, claimed RU drone air-to-air). Showcased use of Shark UAV for targeting high-value RU assets. Development of new "Foot Crusher" fragmentation munition for heavy drones (Kharkiv). Warning issued regarding new type of delayed-action fragmentation grenade deployed by RU UAVs.
Logistics/Needs: Public fundraising appeals persist for specific units (e.g., Mavic 3T for 53rd Bde on Toretsk axis; Laptop/Tires for 42nd Mech Bde artillery). Suggests potential gaps or need for enhanced capabilities beyond standard issue.
Western Aid: Previous reports noted delivery of Roshel Senator MRAPs, EU/Belgian aid commitments, F-16 progress, CRV7 rockets.
V. Personnel, Mobilization & Ethical Considerations
Alleged Execution of POWs (Piatykhatky): Continued dissemination of AP video alleging Russian execution of 4 surrendered UA soldiers.
Alleged Civilian Killings (Makhnovka): RU Investigative Committee claims discovery of 9 civilians allegedly killed by UA forces, promoted via video evidence.
Foreign Nationals (Fighting for Russia): Investigation into captured Chinese nationals confirmed by President Zelenskyy. Case reported of injured Uzbek mercenary (Redut PMC) allegedly denied support.
Prisoner Exchange (Confirmed): Artur Petrov (RU) exchanged for Ksenia Karelina (US-RU) on Apr 10.
Casualties: High casualties reported/claimed on frontlines. Significant civilian casualties confirmed in Dnipro (1 KIA, 8 WIA), Ozerne (1 KIA, 5 WIA), Nikopol (13 WIA), Kryvyi Rih (20 KIA, >90 WIA).
Mobilization Issues (Reported): Russian sources circulate video allegedly showing civilian resistance to police/TCC mobilization efforts in Kryvyi Rih. Requires verification; potential indicator of social tensions.
VI. Information Warfare / Key Narratives
Zhuravka Capture (RU Narrative): Major RU claim reinforced with MoD video evidence.
Makhnovka Incident (RU Narrative): Serious RU allegation of civilian killings by UA forces, amplified by RU Investigative Committee and channels.
Piatykhatky POW Execution Allegation (UA Narrative): Continued dissemination of AP video by UA sources, framed as a war crime.
Civilian Impact Narrative: UA emphasizes civilian nature/casualties of Dnipro warehouse and Ozerne residential strikes; RU claims military targets nearby (Ozerne). UA highlights updated Dnipro casualty count.
Potential European Troop Deployment: Reports confirmed by UA sources (5-6 nations considering). RU sources frame it as limited support hampered by lack of US guarantees.
US Role/Diplomacy: Confirmation of US Ambassador Brink's resignation highlighted by both sides. RU sources emphasize potential US troop withdrawal from Europe and shifting priorities.
Mobilization Resistance (RU Narrative): Promotion of alleged incident in Kryvyi Rih depicting resistance to UA mobilization.
