Nightwatch logo'Nightwatch' text with white and gray lettersKnowledge is Power

Situation Report

2025-04-08 10:41:18Z
Previous Report (2025-04-08 10:11:19Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 8, 2025, 10:40 UTC

(Analysis based on information received up to 10:40 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessment

  • Combat Intensity: Remains high, particularly focused on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Kursk Axes. The operational situation in the Kharkiv operational zone remains complex but stable (OTU "Kharkiv").
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Situation:
    • Russian Territorial Gains: Russian MoD and multiple sources confirm the capture of Huyevo (Kursk Oblast). RU sources claim only Hornal and Oleshnia remain under Ukrainian control within Kursk Oblast. RU MoD reports engaging elements of six Ukrainian brigades (1 Mech, 1 Tank, 3 Air Assault, 1 TerO) near Hornal and Oleshnia. RU sources claim advances south and north of Hornal.
    • Ukrainian Counter-Actions: Ukrainian SSO confirmed repelling a Russian raid near Loknya (Kursk Oblast) on April 6, capturing a PoW, countering RU narratives of complete control in the immediate border area. OTU "Kharkiv" highlights involvement of Ukrainian personnel (e.g., 22nd Mech Bde soldier) in the Kursk operation.
    • Contested Areas/Grey Zone: DeepState assesses the "grey zone" in Sumy Oblast is expanding, with Russian forces attempting to penetrate and hold the border area between Zhuravka (Sumy Obl.) and the Sudzha checkpoint (Kursk Obl.).
  • Russian Strike Activity: Continuous high volume using KABs/UMPKs, Geran/Gerbera drones, OTRK, and MLRS across frontline and rear oblasts (Donbas, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk reported).
    • Specific locations recently targeted (Apr 7-8) include: Borova, Lyman area, Lypsti, Krasnopillia, Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka, Yunakivka, Pokrovsk, Lozova, Kharkiv city, Pavlohrad, Synelnykove, Kamyanske, Novomoskovsk, Zolochiv.
    • Civilian Impact: 1 civilian (64M) severely wounded in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) by explosive dropped from RU drone (Apr 8, Kharkiv ODA Head). Previous reports noted 20 KIA (incl. 9 children) and >90 WIA from the Apr 4 Iskander-M cluster munition strike on Kryvyi Rih.
  • Ukrainian Strike Activity (Claims):
    • Russian MoD claims Ukraine conducted two attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the past 24 hours, violating unspecified US-RU agreements.
    • ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone attack damaged a high-voltage power line (750 kV) connecting the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant to the "Metallurgicheskaya" substation in Kursk Oblast.
  • Counter-Intelligence / Internal Security:
    • Foiled Assassination Plot (UA Claim): Ukrainian authorities report thwarting an alleged FSB-directed plot to assassinate Kharkiv OVA Head Oleh Syniehubov and Derhachi MVA Head Vyacheslav Zadorenko. The suspect, previously convicted, allegedly carried out a prior murder of a UA serviceman and bombings in Kharkiv before being apprehended.
    • Propagandist Investigation: UA Prosecutor General reports serving a suspicion notice to another alleged pro-Kremlin journalist for incitement, justifying aggression.
    • Russian Trials: RU sources report the trial/conviction of 3 alleged Ukrainian 95th Brigade soldiers on 'terrorism' charges related to actions in Sudzha district, Kursk Oblast.
  • Strategic Communication & Information Warfare:
    • RU: Heavily promotes Huyevo liberation, emphasizes high claimed UA losses (daily/cumulative) in Kursk, highlights trials of UA soldiers, continues narratives of low UA morale/suffering of civilians in Kursk Oblast from UA actions (Sudzha), disseminates alleged PoW torture testimony. Frames UA energy strikes as violation of agreements.
    • UA: Highlights successful defense/counterattack in Loknya (Kursk), capture of PoW. Publicizes successful drone strike on high-value target (TOS rockets) near Pesky-Selydove. Promotes volunteer recruitment expansion ("Contract 18-24"). Publicizes indictment of alleged FSB agent and propagandist. Highlights civilian casualties from RU strikes (Vovchansk, Kryvyi Rih). Counters RU narratives on Kursk/Belgorod operations. Notes DeepState assessment of expanding Sumy grey zone. Skeptical commentary on RU-Iran treaty's mutual aid clause.
  • Diplomacy / Geopolitics:
    • Russia-Iran: Russian State Duma ratifies the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Iran. RU MFA clarifies the treaty does not mandate Russian military assistance if Iran is attacked.
    • Russia-US: Peskov blames US for "terrible damage" to relations, states difficult to imagine START-4 talks, need to consider other nuclear powers. RU welcomes US-Iran contacts.
    • Russia-Brazil: Brazilian President Lula confirmed to visit Moscow May 9.
    • Belgium-Ukraine: Belgian PM Bart De Wever met President Zelenskyy in Kyiv, participated in memorial ceremony.
    • US Policy: Reports noted on potential US troop withdrawal from E. Europe, Trump admin statements on defense budget (contradictory reports cited by RU source), US Treasury focus on trade tariffs.
    • Kazakhstan-EU: RU source analyzes summit, framing Kazakhstan's EU outreach cautiously.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Updates)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (Intensity High):
    • Huyevo (Kursk Oblast, RU): Russian control officially confirmed by RU MoD and multiple sources, supported by visual evidence (flag raising).
    • Hornal / Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU): Fighting ongoing. RU MoD claims engaging elements of 6 UA Brigades. RU sources claim these are the last two UA-controlled settlements in Kursk Oblast and report RU advances north and south of Hornal. RU sources note anticipated UA counterattack involving 95th Airmobile and 1st Tank Brigades near Oleshnia.
    • Loknya (Kursk Oblast, RU): Ukrainian forces confirmed repelled RU raid Apr 6, captured PoW. Provides counterpoint to RU narrative of unchallenged control.
    • Sumy Oblast Border: DeepState assesses "grey zone" expanding, with RU attempts to penetrate/hold border area from Zhuravka towards Sudzha KPP. RU MoD claims strikes on UA forces in multiple Sumy border settlements.
    • Basivka (Sumy Oblast, UA): Status contested/unclear. UA claimed full control Apr 7, refuting RU MoD liberation claim (Apr 6). DeepState previously suggested RU used it for Loknya raid Apr 6.
    • Claimed Losses (Kursk): RU MoD claims inflicting >290 UA personnel losses, 1 tank, 7 AFV/vehicles, 2 mortars, 4 UAV CPs (past 24h). Cumulative RU claims remain exceptionally high. UA previously claimed elimination of Akhmat Cmdr "Varyag".
  • Kharkiv Axis: Situation complex but controlled (OTU Kharkiv). Ongoing RU air/drone/arty attacks. 1 civilian WIA in Vovchansk (drone). Previous significant RU losses claimed by UA stand. RU source (Marochko) previously claimed RU advances within Vovchansk city center (Apr 8, 03:23 UTC - Requires Verification).
  • Kupyansk Axis: UA previously confirmed repel of RU "turtle tank" attack. Earlier RU claims of advances near Petropavlivka, fighting near Pervomaiske noted.
  • Lyman Axis: Katerynivka confirmed under Russian control. RU claim of advance into Northern Torske persists. RU source claimed destruction of UA 2S1 Gvozdika SPG via Lancet (Apr 8, 03:06 UTC - Requires Verification).
  • Siversk Axis: RU claim of expanded control zone near Verkhnokamyanske persists.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
    • Chasiv Yar: Fighting ongoing. RU claim control over northern shore of Dniprovsky pond (Kanal microdistrict) persists (Dnevnik Desantnika, 10:28 UTC). RU source reports UA counterattacking after losing stronghold on Chekhova St. and attempting to reinforce with armor from the south. RU source claims UA seeks to prevent RU advance towards Kostiantynivka. Previous reports confirmed RU advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict.
  • Toretsk Axis: RU claim of advance near Ozaryanivka persists. Intensity remains high.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
    • Shevchenko: Contested. RU claims full control; UA previously claimed pushback.
    • Pesky-Selydove Road: UA "Ivan Franko Group" drone unit claims destruction of 8 RU vehicles, including a truck carrying TOS "Solntsepyok" thermobaric MLRS rockets, causing large secondary explosion (Butusov Plus, 10:08 UTC).
    • Lysivka: Heavy fighting previously reported ongoing.
    • RU Strikes: RU sources confirmed 3x FAB strike on building in Pokrovsk city and FPV strikes within the city (Apr 8 early morning).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: RU claim of capturing UA stronghold North of Novyi Komar persists. RU forces (T-80BVs, Vostok Group) reported providing fire support with UAV correction (Voin DV, 10:35 UTC). Previous RU claims of significant daily advances (1.5-2km) noted.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): RU claims destruction of UA Bohdana SPG, pickups, BMP via FPV persist. RU claims advances towards Orikhiv, storming Stepove persist.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): No significant changes reported. Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynky maintained amidst RU attempts to dislodge.

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

  • Current Air Threats (As of 10:40 UTC):
    • Air Raid Alert: Active across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 10:15 UTC).
    • Reconnaissance UAV Threat:
      • Enemy recon UAV detected over Black Sea approaching Odesa Oblast; engagement ongoing (UA AF, 10:17 UTC).
      • Enemy recon UAV detected South of Zaporizhzhia city (UA AF, 10:18 UTC).
    • Tactical Aviation Threat: Persists for southeastern direction and frontline oblasts. Recent KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast noted earlier (UA AF, 03:17 UTC).
  • Recent Russian Strikes (Summary Apr 7-8): Extensive use of UMPK-guided bombs, Geran/Gerbera drones, OTRK, MLRS reported across multiple oblasts (see Section I). Claimed 7 groups of 3 Geran drones struck Pavlohrad overnight Apr 7-8.
  • Recent Ukrainian Strikes (Claims):
    • RU MoD claims 2 UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in past 24h.
    • Specific claim of UA drone damaging 750 kV power line from Kursk NPP (ASTRA/RU MoD).
  • Drone Warfare:
    • RU Claims: Destroyed 2 UA UAV CPs (incl. Starlink) via drone drops ('Sparta' Bn, 09:59 UTC). Previously claimed destroying UA "Baba Yaga" heavy drones via FPVs on Kursk border and intercepting HIMARS rockets with Buk-M3. Claimed deployment of "Kuznechik" FPV C2 system bypassing EW (TASS, 03:14 UTC - Unverified). Claimed FPV strike disabling another UA Abrams tank (RU MoD/Voin DV, 02:04 UTC - Unverified).
    • UA Claims: Destroyed RU truck carrying TOS rockets via drone near Pesky-Selydove ("Ivan Franko Group"). GUR previously claimed downing 8 RU recon UAVs (Apr 7). Video showcasing FPV drone ops by 128th Mtn Bde ("Orion" Bn).

IV. Naval Situation

  • No significant changes reported. Black Sea/Azov Sea remain clear of Russian warships. Kalibr missile carriers (3 ships, up to 26 missiles total) remain deployed in the Mediterranean Sea. Russia continues naval movements through Kerch Strait, violating SOLAS.

V. Other Developments

  • Personnel / Force Generation:
    • Ukrainian: Government expands "Contract 18–24" volunteer project to include National Guard & State Border Guard Service. NGU "Khartia" Brigade launches youth recruitment campaign. 425th Assault Regt ("SKALA DNIPRO" Bn) expanding. OTU "Kharkiv" highlights profile of experienced soldier (22nd Mech Bde) involved in Kursk op.
    • Russian: RU MoD establishing mobile medical commissions for WIA processing. Wargonzo video shows field gym for 228th Regt. Claims of Colombian mercenaries near Sumy/Kursk border persist.
  • Logistics & Capabilities:
    • Ukrainian: Emphasis on domestic drone production (all types, incl. fiber-optic models), deep strike capabilities. Large FPV drone crowdfunding continues. Testing Bradley vs CV90 IFVs reported.
    • Russian: AvtoVAZ temporarily halting Lada Granta production for retooling. Shacman (China) plans truck production localization. RU volunteers reported developing "Courier" assault UGVs used by 36th CAA. T-80BVs shown operating with UAV support (South Donetsk). RU MoD reportedly suing military software developer "Angstrem".
Previous Report (2025-04-08 10:11:19Z)