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Situation Report

2025-04-08 07:11:50Z
Previous Report (2025-04-08 06:41:10Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 8, 2025, 07:10 UTC

(Analysis based on information received up to 07:10 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessment

  • Combat Intensity: High intensity persists across the front line. 159 combat clashes were recorded over the past 24 hours (UGS Report, 05:00 UTC). The most active sectors remain Pokrovsk (52 clashes), Toretsk (23), Lyman (21), and the Kursk Operational Zone (21). Ground assaults were reported repelled or ongoing across multiple axes. No Russian ground assaults were noted on the Kharkiv or Prydniprovsky axes in the UGS morning report.
  • Russian Strike Activity (Past 24h & Ongoing): Significant volume continues.
    • Reported Strikes (UGS 05:00 UTC): 1 missile strike (Iskander-M), 74 aviation strikes (utilizing 120 KABs), over 5,800 shelling incidents (134 MLRS), and 2,782 kamikaze drone deployments targeting Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
    • Southern Command Zone (SDF South 05:53 UTC): Recorded >330 shelling incidents (>1300 rounds), ~630 kamikaze drone strikes, >320 drone munition drops (>500 munitions), 10 air strikes (5 KABs, 52 NARs). Impacts reported in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. 8 civilians WIA (incl. 1 child) in Kherson Oblast.
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Regional Gov. 05:52 UTC): Detailed strikes include Iskander-M (Vysokyi), KABs (Slatyne, Udy, Baranivka), FPV drone (Bilyi Kolodyaz - 3 WIA), MLRS (Pisky-Radkivski), shelling (Tokarivka Druha - 1 KIA, 2 WIA).
    • Ongoing Air Threats (as of 07:10 UTC):
      • Russian tactical aviation remains active on the northeastern direction (UA AF 06:31 UTC). Threat of aviation weapon use persists for frontline oblasts.
      • KAB launches confirmed towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF 06:31 UTC).
      • KAB launches confirmed towards Donetsk Oblast (UA AF 06:54 UTC).
  • Overnight Air Attack (Apr 7-8):
    • Launch: Russia launched 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile (from Kursk area) and 46 Shahed-type strike UAVs / unspecified 'imitator drones' (from Primorsko-Akhtarsk).
    • Interceptions (UA AF 05:00 UTC / GS ZSU 05:48 UTC / Tsaplienko 05:13 UTC):
      • Iskander-M: 0 out of 1 intercepted.
      • Shahed/Strike UAVs: 9 out of ?? confirmed intercepted (out of 46 total launched Shaheds/imitators). Southern Command reported 2 Shahed-131/136 downed in their zone. Indicates a lower interception rate for the strike drones compared to previous reports.
      • Imitator Drones: 31 reported "locationally lost" without negative consequences, suggesting significant use of decoys potentially impacting AD effectiveness.
    • Impacts: Confirmed damage reported in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts.
      • Kharkiv: Iskander-M strike on non-operational recreation base in Vysokyi damaged 4-story building; 3 civilians suffered acute stress reactions (Regional Gov. / Sever.Realii).
      • Dnipropetrovsk: UAV attack damaged infrastructure, 6 apartment buildings, shop (Samarivskyi District). UAV/Artillery attacks damaged buildings/infrastructure in Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk communities. Attack on Mezhivska community damaged houses/farm. 8 RU UAVs downed over the oblast overnight (PvK Skhid / Lysak). No casualties reported overnight.
      • Pokrovsk (City): Video evidence surfaced allegedly showing impact of three FAB glide bombs with UMPK kits on a building (Colonelcassad).
  • Russian Air Defense Claims (Overnight): Russian MoD claims interception of 23 Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk Oblast (19) and Belgorod Oblast (4) (TASS / RVvoenkor / ASTRA / Voenkor Kotenok). These figures align with previous reports and do not include FPV drones. Civilian injuries from alleged UA drone strikes reported in Horlivka, Novohrodivka, Kurakhove (occupied DNR) and Borki (Belgorod Oblast) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Russian Ground Force Claims & Activity:
    • Multiple Axes: Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika, Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claim ongoing offensive actions and advances on Zaporizhzhia (Stepove, Kamyanske, Shcherbaky, Lobkove), Pokrovsk (Lysivka, Kotlyne, Pischane, Zvereve), Lyman (W of Novolyubivka, Torske - see below), Toretsk (from Panteleimonivka/Zelenopillya), and South Donetsk (near Rozlyv, height near Bohatyr) directions.
    • Kursk/Belgorod Border: Claims of successes/advances near Huyevo (claim liberation) and Hornal (Kursk). Fierce fighting reported near Oleshnia (Kursk). Claim UA building defenses near Huyevo/Hornal, using heights (Mt. Faghor). Claims capture of key height (Mt. Faghor). Continued claims of UA presence near Popovka/Demidovka (Belgorod). Claimed destruction of Abrams MBT and BREM-1 ARV near Demidovka (Apr 7). Alleges UA 82nd Air Assault Bde elements transferred to Krasnopilskyi district (Sumy). Reports UA drone mining/targeting RU supply lines in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod). RU MoD released PoW testimony alleging UA orders to abandon wounded during retreat from Sudzha (TASS, repeated by RVvoenkor). New PoW video released featuring Yuriy Beisyuk (101st TDF Bde), captured in Kursk Oblast (Dva Mayora).
    • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces assert control over the northern shore of the Dniprovsky pond (Kanal microdistrict).
    • Kupyansk: Claims fighting near Zapadne, Mala Shapkivka, Kondrashivka; UA counteractions near Fyholivka (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
    • Lyman: Confirmed capture of Katerynivka. Claimed advance into northern Torske, controlling significant part, raising flag. Alleges UA forces ordered to withdraw/destroy positions, facing heavy RU drone pressure (Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • South Donetsk: Claimed airstrike on UA brigade (reportedly 71st Bde) location in Myrne (NW of Velyka Novosilka), alleging 20 UA KIA (TASS, Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • Zaporizhzhia: RU claim UA shelled Kamianka-Dniprovska hospital (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Ukrainian Ground Force Reports & Counterclaims:
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed back Russian forces in Shevchenko (DeepState, 05:43 UTC), contradicting RU claims of advances towards Shevchenko. Heavy fighting continues across the axis.
    • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: Ukrainian forces repelled 21 RU attacks in the Kursk zone (UGS). Fierce fighting confirmed near Oleshnia, with RU sources claiming arrival of UA 95th Airmobile & 1st Tank Bde reinforcements. RU claims liberation of Huyevo (Kursk) after >10 days fighting against alleged UA SSO, Air Assault, 129 TDF units (Dva Mayora).
    • Toretsk Axis: Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian assault evening Apr 7, destroying 2 BMPs (Shef Hayabusa).
    • Kharkiv Axis: 4 RU attacks repelled on Kupyansk direction (towards Pishchane, near Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove) (Regional Gov.).
    • Orikhiv Axis: 8 RU assaults repelled (near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Shcherbaky) (SDF South).
    • Huliaipole Axis: 2 RU attacks towards Shevchenko repelled (SDF South).
    • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): No RU ground assaults reported (UGS, SDF South). UA forces conducting clearing operations on Dnipro islands near Kherson; one RU PoW captured by Coastal Defense Brigade elements (Tsaplienko).
    • General: UA SSO (4th Ranger Rgt) claim successful clearing operation in unspecified settlement, eliminating RU personnel, capturing 1 PoW and documents, supported by drones/artillery (RBC-Ukraina).
  • Confirmed Territorial Changes / Key Clashes (Recent):
    • Katerynivka (Lyman Axis): Russian control confirmed. Geolocated footage (49.18312, 37.85937) shows RU flag raising in northern part. RU sources claim >3.5km advance (Slivochniy Kapriz, Старше Эдды, Rybar).
    • Torske (Lyman Axis): Russian claim of significant advance into northern Torske (Dnevnik Desantnika). Requires verification.
    • Huyevo (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Russian forces claim liberation after extended fighting (Dva Mayora, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Previous reports confirmed RU advance near Huyevo (DeepState, RU sources).
    • Novolyubivka (Lyman Axis): Russian forces advanced west of Novolyubivka (DeepState, RVvoenkor, Rybar).
    • Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Axis): Russian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar, near Kanal microdistrict (DeepState, RU sources).
    • Shevchenko (Pokrovsk Axis): Ukrainian forces pushed back Russian forces (DeepState).
    • Lysivka (Pokrovsk Axis): High intensity fighting continues (Rybar, RVvoenkor, Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
    • Stepove (Orikhiv Axis): Russian forces advanced into western part (RVvoenkor, Rybar).
  • Technological Developments & Tactics:
    • Russian: Claimed destruction of Abrams MBT in Sumy Oblast using drones (Basurin). Continued claims/evidence of fiber-optic FPV use (Colonelcassad video). Highlighted need/fundraising for EW backpacks for VDV infantry against UA drones (Dnevnik Desantnika). Highlighted need for satcom, drone detectors, vehicle EW ('Tair') on Pokrovsk axis (Dva Mayora). Claimed superiority in TOS production (Rostec/TASS). Establishment of mobile medical commissions confirmed for military personnel checks (TASS, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • Ukrainian: Stavka meeting emphasized maximizing domestic drone production (all types, ground robots), focus on fiber-optic drones (>20 models certified since Jan '25). Use of BM-21 Grad MLRS by 47th Mech Bde highlighted (Magura). Claimed successful deep strike on Shaikovka airfield (Russia) on March 31, destroying/damaging Kh-22/32 missiles and support facilities (Operatyvnyi ZSU / Kiboroshno). Delivery of 40 vehicles (pickups, ATVs, buggies) worth 26M UAH to units on Zaporizhzhia front reported (Zaporizhzhia OVA). Claimed destruction of RU Akhmat "Tigr" vehicle via drone (Sternenko).
  • Claimed Losses:
    • Russian Losses (Past 24h - UGS 05:00 UTC): Approx. +1290 personnel; 5 Tanks, 14 AFVs, 43 Artillery Systems, 3 MLRS, 2 AD Systems, 43 OTR UAVs, 107 Vehicles, 2 Special Equipment.
    • Russian Losses (Southern Front - SDF South 05:55 UTC): 95 personnel; 11 Arty, 37 AFV/Vehicles, 1 Grad MLRS, 1 Murom-M, 1 ZU-23-2, 10 EW, 1 motorcycle, 2 boats, 5 ATVs, 6 Recon UAVs (Supercam, Zala, Orlan), 6 Starlink, 15 comms/UAV antennas, 1 ammo depot, 4 generators, 1 firing pos, 1 obs post. 56 shelters/bunkers destroyed.
    • Specific RU Losses Claimed (UA): 2 BMPs (Toretsk axis, Apr 7 eve - Shef Hayabusa); Akhmat "Tigr" vehicle (Sternenko).
  • Ukrainian Strikes (Past 24h - UGS 05:00 UTC): Aviation, missile troops, artillery hit 17 RU concentration areas, 1 command post, 1 Buk SAM radar. Claimed deep strike on Shaikovka airfield (March 31). Ongoing artillery/drone strikes reported by UA units (e.g., 47th Mech Bde, SSO 4th Ranger Rgt).
  • Strategic Communication & Information Warfare:
    • President Zelenskyy acknowledged Ukrainian forces' presence and active operations in Russian border regions (Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts) (Tsaplienko 05:54 UTC).
    • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Death toll remains 20 Killed (9 children), >90 Wounded. UN SC / OSCE meetings convened Apr 8. Ukraine emphasizes civilian targeting (playground, restaurant area) using cluster munitions (Acting FM). Independent media footage refutes RU claims of military presence near impact site (ASTRA, Butusov Plus). Russia maintains strike targeted military meeting (Peskov).
    • Russian sources continue to amplify PoW testimony alleging UA abandonment of wounded near Sudzha (Kursk) (TASS, RVvoenkor). New PoW video released (Yuriy Beisyuk, 101 TDF, captured Kursk) (Dva Mayora).
    • Ukrainian sources released video of captured RU PoW near Kherson (Tsaplienko).
  • Counter-Intelligence: SBU/Prosecutor's Office detained alleged Russian agent in Kharkiv collecting targeting data on UA military and critical infrastructure (boiler houses) (Prosecutor General's Office).

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Updates)

  • Pokrovsk Axis (52 Clashes - UGS): Highest Intensity.
    • Shevchenko: UA forces pushed back RU forces (DeepState). Continued RU attacks towards Shevchenko reported previously.
    • Lysivka: High intensity fighting continues (Rybar, RVvoenkor, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU infantry attacks reported along northern street towards west (RVvoenkor).
    • Other locations: UA repelled attacks near Kalynove, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Udachne, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Kotlyne, and towards Kotlyarivka, Malynivka, Serhiivka (UGS). RU claims attacks near Kotlyne, Pischane, Zvereve (Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Video evidence of alleged RU FAB strikes in Pokrovsk city emerged (Colonelcassad). RU units requesting additional equipment (Satcom, drone detectors, EW) indicate resource strain (Dva Mayora).
  • Toretsk Axis (23 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled attacks near Dachne, Shcherbynivka, Ozaryanivka, Toretsk (UGS). Ukrainian sources claim 2 RU BMPs destroyed during repelled assault evening Apr 7 (Shef Hayabusa).
    • RU sources claim converging advances and offensive success west of Panteleimonivka / towards Zelenopillya area (Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). ISW previously confirmed RU advances in northern Toretsk.
  • Lyman Axis (21 Clashes - UGS):
    • Katerynivka: Russian control confirmed (Geolocated footage, Slivochniy Kapriz, Старше Эдды, Rybar, RU MoD Apr 7). Claimed >3.5km RU advance.
    • Torske: Russian sources claim significant advance into northern Torske, alleging control over a large part and flag raising. Claim UA forces ordered to withdraw/destroy positions amid heavy RU drone activity (Dnevnik Desantnika). This claim requires verification.
    • Novolyubivka: RU forces advanced west of the settlement (DeepState, RVvoenkor, Rybar).
    • Other locations: UA repelled attacks near Nadiya, Yampolivka, Torske, and towards Novoplatonivka, Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Olhivka, Zelena Dolyna, Nove (UGS).
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (21 Clashes in Kursk Zone - UGS):
    • Huyevo/Hornal/Oleshnia (Kursk): RU forces claim liberation of Huyevo after >10 days fighting against alleged UA SSO/Air Assault/129 TDF units (Dva Mayora, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU forces advanced near Huyevo (DeepState, Rybar). Ongoing fierce fighting near Hornal and Oleshnia. RU claim UA building defenses near Huyevo/Hornal and controls key height (Mt. Faghor). RU sources claim arrival of UA 95th Airmobile & 1st Tank Bde reinforcements near Oleshnia for potential counterattack (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
    • Sumy Oblast: RU claims destruction of UA Abrams MBT via drone strike (Basurin). RU alleges UA 82nd Air Assault Bde elements transferred to Krasnopilskyi district (Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
    • Drone Warfare: RU claim destruction of UA BREM-1 ARV near Turya (Sumy) via fiber-optic FPV (Apr 7). RU reports UA drone mining/targeting RU supply lines in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU forces express need for infantry EW backpacks (Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • Border Clashes (Belgorod): RU claims continued UA presence near Popovka/Demidovka. Heavy fighting reported near Demidovka/Popovka previously, with RU claims of repelling UA armor and destroying Abrams/BREM (Rybar, WarGonzo, Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
    • Information Operations: RU MoD released PoW video alleging UA abandonment of wounded near Sudzha (Kursk) (TASS, RVvoenkor). New RU PoW video released (Yuriy Beisyuk, 101 TDF, captured Kursk) (Dva Mayora).
  • Orikhiv Axis (8 Clashes - UGS / 8 Repelled - SDF South):
    • UA repelled 8 RU attacks near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Shcherbaky (SDF South).
    • RU forces advanced into western Stepove (RVvoenkor, Rybar).
    • Fighting reported near Kamyanske and Lobkove (Rybar, WarGonzo, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU claims active near Shcherbaky. RU alleges UA shelling of Kamianka-Dniprovska hospital (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (12 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled attacks towards Bohatyr and near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne (UGS).
    • RU sources claim advancing towards Bohatyr (WarGonzo), consolidating near Rozlyv, and capturing key height near Bohatyr (Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU Spetsnaz/Arty active on Shakhtarsk direction (Voin DV).
    • Myrne: RU claims successful airstrike on UA brigade location (reportedly 71st Bde), alleging 20 UA KIA (TASS, Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Huliaipole Axis (2 Clashes - UGS / 2 Reported - SDF South):
    • UA repelled attacks towards Shevchenko (UGS). SDF South reports 2 RU attacks towards Shevchenko.
  • Kupyansk Axis (4 Clashes - UGS / 4 Repelled - Kharkiv Gov):
    • UA repelled 4 attacks towards Pishchane, near Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (UGS, Kharkiv Gov.).
    • RU sources claim fighting near Zapadne, Mala Shapkivka, Kondrashivka; UA counteractions near Fyholivka (Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (3 Clashes - UGS) (incl. Chasiv Yar):
    • Clashes near Kurdyumivka, Chasiv Yar (UGS).
    • RU forces advanced within Chasiv Yar (DeepState), near Kanal microdistrict. RU claims control of northern shore of Dniprovsky pond (TASS/Marochko).
  • Siversk Axis (3 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled attacks near Hryhorivka (UGS).
  • Kharkiv Axis (No Ground Assaults - UGS):
    • No RU ground offensives reported by UGS. RU claims advances in Vovchansk city center persist (TASS/Marochko). Heavy RU shelling/KAB/drone strikes reported across the oblast (Kharkiv Gov.). Suspected RU agent detained, accused of collecting targeting data for strikes (Prosecutor General's Office).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (No Ground Assaults - UGS / SDF South):
    • No RU offensives reported. Ukrainian positions maintained near Krynky. UA Coastal Defense Bde elements conducting clearing ops on Dnipro islands, captured RU PoW (Tsaplienko).

III. Naval Situation

  • Black Sea / Sea of Azov: No Russian warships detected (UGS, Apr 8, 03:00 UTC).
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian ships remain deployed, all Kalibr carriers (total potential salvo: 26 missiles) (UGS, Apr 8, 03:00 UTC).

IV. Other Developments

  • Ukrainian Logistics & Capabilities: Delivery of 40 light tactical vehicles (pickups, ATVs, buggies) reported for units on the Zaporizhzhia front (Zaporizhzhia OVA). Recruitment and operational footage released by 47th Mech Bde (BM-21 Grad use), 48th Arty Bde, 109th TD Bde. Continued focus on domestic drone production (fiber-optic emphasis). GIZ (Germany) providing cogeneration units to enhance energy resilience in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (3 delivered 2025, 6 more planned) (Zaporizhzhia OVA). SBU/Prosecutor's Office detains alleged spy in Kharkiv.
  • Russian Logistics & Capabilities: Continued need for infantry EW systems (backpacks) highlighted by VDV elements (Dnevnik Desantnika). Fundraising appeals highlight needs for Satcom, drone detectors, vehicle EW ('Tair') on Pokrovsk axis (Dva Mayora). Creation of mobile medical commissions confirmed for personnel health assessments (TASS, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Dnevnik Desantnika). Bureaucratic hurdles reported for volunteer supplies requiring specific military unit letters for customs clearance (Fighterbomber). MTS cancels roaming charges in occupied Crimea/Sevastopol.
  • International Relations/Geopolitics:
    • US-Ukraine-NATO: Reports indicate Trump admin discussed/approved a $1 trillion US defense budget (Dnevnik Desantnika, Tsaplienko). Zaluzhnyi confirms existence of secret joint UA-Partner (US/UK primary) operational headquarters in Germany for planning and needs assessment (Tsaplienko).
    • US-Iran: Indirect talks scheduled in Oman (Apr 12), focus unclear (Reuters/CNN/Operatyvnyi ZSU). Trump admin statement warns Iran of danger if talks fail (Alex Parker Returns).
    • US-Moldova: Trade tensions reported; US imposed 31% import tariffs on Moldova (Rybar).
    • EU-Ukraine: Euractiv report on uncertain future legal status for Ukrainian refugees in EU post-conflict cited by RU sources (Basurin).
    • Russia-Moldova: Russia banned Moldovan freight carriers from entry/transit amid diplomatic tensions (Rybar).
    • Russia Nuclear Posturing: Medvedev stated nuclear disarmament impossible for decades, expects more destructive weapons and nuclear states (TASS).
Previous Report (2025-04-08 06:41:10Z)