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Situation Report

2025-04-05 07:33:13Z
Previous Report (2025-04-05 05:58:23Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 07:30 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across the frontlines. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 145 combat engagements during the past 24 hours (as of 08:00 UTC Apr 5). Russian offensive pressure continues, particularly focused on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk axes.
  • Russian Tactics: Heavy reliance on aviation (107 strikes, 171 KABs reported past 24h), kamikaze drones (2737 reported past 24h), and artillery/MLRS fire (6353 shelling attacks, 105 MLRS reported past 24h). Significant drone usage confirmed in Southern Sector (560 kamikaze strikes, >320 ordnance drops). RU forces adapting counter-drone tactics (e.g., small arms fire from observation posts, rifle guards for MLRS). RU sources indicate development/use of drone-specific munitions (incendiary focus noted in Kursk Oblast).
  • Russian Perspective (Pro-War Sources): Assessment (Strelkov, Mar 26, recirculated Apr 5) anticipates intensified fighting in Spring/Summer, acknowledges insufficient MoD supply necessitating volunteer support, notes UA forces fighting hard, and highlights RU struggles near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk. WarGonzo (Apr 5) claims RU tactical successes near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia), towards Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk), near Udachne (Pokrovsk), confirms Oleksandropil/Uspenivka captures, and advances near Oleshnia/Basovka (Kursk/Sumy border).
  • Major Incident - Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4): Combined Russian ballistic missile (Iskander-M w/ cluster munition) and mass Shahed drone attacks targeted residential areas. Casualty figures vary slightly between sources: 18-19 KIA (incl. 9 children, confirmed death of 3yo boy), 61-68 WIA (incl. 12 children) (OGP/Vilkul/ASTRA/RBK, Apr 5). Rescue operations concluded. Days of Mourning declared for Apr 7-9 (Vilkul). Extensive damage reported.
  • Cross-Border Operations (Kursk/Sumy): Ukrainian forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast, repelling 18 Russian attacks in the past 24 hours (UGS). UA DShV claims successful recon operations near Sudzha, detecting/repelling RU DRG and identifying minefields/positions leading to RU unit destruction (Apr 5). Intense Russian shelling (362 arty attacks, 8 MLRS) and air strikes (13 air strikes, 20 KABs) reported on the Kursk direction (UGS).
    • RU Claims: Ongoing fighting near Oleshnia and Huyevo (Kursk), RU advancing towards Oleshnia (TASS/Rybar/WarGonzo). RU advance claimed near Basovka (Sumy border) (Rybar/WarGonzo). Destruction of UA SSO groups transferred from Sumy to Sudzha forests claimed (TASS). Alleged mistreatment of civilian by UA forces claimed (TASS/RVvoenkor). RU developing/using drone munitions in the area (Dva Mayora).
  • Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Night Apr 4-5): Confirmed Ukrainian UAV strikes caused significant fires at strategic industrial facilities deep inside Russia:
    • Saransk, Mordovia: "Optical Fiber Systems" plant (reportedly Russia's sole producer) hit (UA Sources/RBK).
    • Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast: "Promsintez" explosives plant (previously targeted), fire confirmed (Governor/ASTRA/RBK).
    • RU Claims: Also allege UA UAV strikes targeted energy infrastructure in Bryansk, Tambov, and Lipetsk oblasts (Rybar).
  • Naval Situation (Apr 5 AM): 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier deployed in the Black Sea (potential salvo: 4 missiles). 3 Kalibr carriers remain in the Mediterranean Sea (potential salvo: 26 missiles). No Russian warships reported in the Sea of Azov (UA Navy).

II. Major Incident: Kryvyi Rih Combined Attacks (Apr 4) - UPDATED

  • Casualties (Official/Local Reports, Apr 5): Vary slightly.
    • Office of Prosecutor General (OGP): 18 Killed (incl. 9 children), 61 Wounded (incl. 12 children).
    • Mayor Vilkul: 19 Killed (incl. 9 children), 68 Wounded.
    • ASTRA/RBK: Confirm death of 3-year-old boy (Timofey). Report 18 KIA (half children), 56 WIA.
    • Status: 40 remain hospitalized (17 serious, incl. 2 children critical). Rescue operations concluded 02:45 UTC Apr 5. Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9.
  • Sequence & Weapons:
    1. Afternoon Ballistic Missile Strike: Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition from Taganrog hit residential district/playground (UGS/Vilkul).
    2. Evening/Night Mass Shahed Drone Attack: Targeted the city.
  • Damage: Extensive damage to ~34 multi-story residential buildings, 6 educational facilities, private houses, playgrounds, businesses, infrastructure. Site confirmed by Mayor Vilkul as civilian area with no military/police/critical infrastructure present.
  • Russian Information Warfare: Persistent denial of civilian casualties, claims of hitting military targets (commanders/Western instructors meeting) (MoD RF/ASTRA), disputing cluster munition use.

III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS Report 08:00 UTC, Apr 5 & Other Sources)

  • Lyman Axis: Highest Intensity. 39 Russian attacks reported in past 24h (UGS). Assaults focused towards Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, and near Nadiia.
    • RU Claims (Rybar Analysis, Apr 5): RU forces expanded control N/W of Makiivka near Zherebets River; Fierce fighting near Vishneve; UA counterattacks near Nadiia achieved minimal results in March; RU forces captured strongpoints near **Ivanivka
Previous Report (2025-04-05 05:58:23Z)