Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 19:15 UTC

(Derived from intelligence reports dated Mar 31 - Apr 2, and subsequent updates up to Apr 2 19:15 UTC)

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments

• Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Key flashpoints include the Pokrovsk Direction, Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) Direction, Lyman Direction, Novopavlivsk Direction, Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) Direction, and the Kursk/Belgorod border region.
• Russian Offensive Focus:
  • Primary Axes: Pokrovsk and Toretsk remain central RU efforts.
  • Secondary Axes: Sustained pressure towards Lyman and Chasiv Yar. Ongoing operations on the Orikhiv direction (RU claims advances in Lobkove, towards Kamyanske). Persistent efforts to advance within the Kursk/Belgorod border area, targeting UA positions near Sumy Oblast (fighting near Guyevo, Basivka). Continued pressure on the Novopavlivsk direction (RU claims advances S of Rozlyv towards Bohatyr).
  • Claimed Territorial Gains (RU, Apr 2 - Dnevnik Desantnika/Rybar):
    • Lobkove (Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia): Significant advances claimed North (247th VDV), pushed UA from most of settlement, which remains contested. Advances claimed towards Kamyanske (429th MRR), SW from Stepove, N in Shcherbaky.
    • Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk): Claimed advances NW (500m to Kozheduba St.), N from Druzhba towards Pishchana Balka, W in Zabolka (300-600m).
    • Kherson: Claimed advance clearing 3.5km on flank near Bolshoy Island.
    • Novopavlivsk: Claimed advance S of Rozlyv (1.5km cleared), approx. 3km from Bohatyr.
  • Claimed Territorial Gains (RU, Apr 2 - Previous): Vesele (Novopavlivsk) - full control claimed; Bohdanivka (Pokrovsk) - UA forces pushed to northern outskirts claimed; Kursk/Belgorod Border - breaking UA first defensive line claimed (Guyevo, Gornal, Oleshnia).
  • Claimed Territorial Gains (RU, Mar 31 - Apr 1): Hoholivka (Kursk); Zaporizhzhia settlement (Pokrovsk); Advance >2.5 km W of Novoliubivka (Lyman); Advance ~1 km near Novoie (Donetsk); Partial control claims: Huyevo, Sudzha (Kursk); Panteleimonivka (Toretsk); Shcherbaky (Orikhiv).
• Ukrainian Defensive Posture:
  • Maintaining active defense, repelling numerous RU assaults.
  • Conducting counter-actions within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). RU sources report ongoing UA attempts to breach near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod).
  • Continued significant use of drones for ISR and strike operations.
  • Reported Tactic Evolution (RU Claim): UA reportedly using FPV drones with radio direction finders to locate RU EW/C2 nodes (Rybar, Apr 2).
  • Reported RU Counter-Tactic (UA Source): RU personnel observed using "invisible cloaks" during ground assaults (Butusov, Apr 2).
• Civilian Impact & Casualties:
  • Kharkiv (Apr 2, Evening): Ongoing Shahed drone attack, multiple explosions reported. Confirmed strike in private sector, Kyivskyi district. Previous drone strike (Apr 2) injured 5 in residential building.
  • Kryvyi Rih (Apr 2): Russian ballistic missile strike: 4 KIA, 14 WIA (incl. children). Civilian infrastructure damaged.
  • Nikopol District (Apr 1): Artillery/drone attacks, 3 civilians WIA (14yo boy, 2 women).
  • Horlivka (Occupied, Apr 1 RU Claim): Alleged UA drone attack on bus wounded 14 civilians.
• Aircraft Incidents:
  • CONFIRMED Russian Loss (Apr 2): Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crashed (Usolsky district, Irkutsk Oblast). 1 pilot KIA, 3 survivors. Crash attributed by RU MoD to technical malfunction. Crew reportedly steered away from populated area. Crash reportedly damaged power lines, causing outages (ASTRA). (Note: Fighterbomber TG channel posted tribute implying loss).

II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

• Russian Air/Missile/Drone Threats & Strikes (Recent - Apr 2, ~19:15 UTC):
  • Threats (ACTIVE):
    • UAVs: Active threat for Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Drones reported moving SW from NW/Central Kharkiv; SW from N Donetsk; S towards Zaporizhzhia city from North. Ongoing attack on Kharkiv city.
    • KABs: Launches reported towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. High threat persists.
    • Tactical Aviation: Active on NE and Eastern directions, threat to frontline oblasts.
  • Strikes (Recent Confirmed/Claimed - Apr 2):
    • Kharkiv: Multiple explosions confirmed due to ongoing Shahed attack; strike hit private sector, Kyivskyi district.
    • Kryvyi Rih: Ballistic missile impact on civilian infrastructure (4 KIA, 14 WIA).
    • RU CLAIMS (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2):
      • Iskander-M Strike: Hit UA forces/equipment in Ivot (Sumy Oblast).
      • Airfield Strike: Hit Ozerne airfield (Zhytomyr Oblast), targeting 39th Tac Av Bde facilities. (Repeats earlier claim).
      • Logistics/C2 Strikes: Hit 5th Bde supply point (Dobropillya); UAV command post (Druzhkivka).
    • RU Claims (Rybar, Apr 2): Strikes reported targeting objectives in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa Oblasts.
    • Previous RU Claims (Apr 2): Iskander strike on VPK enterprise (Kryvyi Rih); Strike on logistics hub (Kharkiv); Strikes on repair workshop/warehouse (Andriivka); FAB-3000 strike on dam (Popovka, Belgorod); Strike on 37th Naval Comm Bde HQ (Radisne, Odesa); Warehouse strike (Kramatorsk).
• Ukrainian Strikes & Air Defense (Recent):
  • UAV Success (Apr 2): UA 63rd Mech Bde reported downing a rare RU Albatros M5 reconnaissance UAV (allegedly w/ AI target recognition).
  • UAV Tactic (Reported - Apr 2): UA reportedly testing/using FPV drones equipped with radio direction finders to locate RU EW and C2 nodes for targeting (Rybar claim).
  • RU Energy Infra Strikes (RU Claim - Apr 2): UA attacked energy objects in Kursk Oblast and LNR (Rybar).
  • Previous Activity: UA strike claim (MiG-29/AASM HAMMER, Zaporizhzhia settlement, Apr 2); Confirmed Kh-59/69 interceptions (Mar 31); Claimed destruction RU SAMs deep rear (prior Apr 2).

III. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (Apr 2 Focus)

• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Direction (High Intensity):
  • RU MoD reported TOS-2 use (Apr 1).
  • RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): Entire front in active phase of Ukrainian offensive (contradicts general assessment, may indicate localized UA counter-attacks). RU drone strike on UA PVD SE of Zelenyi reported.
  • RU CLAIM (Previous): Assaulting Bohdanivka, pushing UA to N outskirts. Claimed capture of Zaporizhzhia settlement. Claimed breaching UA fortifications W of Shevchenko.
• Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) Direction (High Intensity):
  • RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): Advance NW (500m to Kozheduba St.); advance N from Druzhba towards Pishchana Balka; advance W in Zabolka (300m & 600m).
  • RU CLAIM (Previous): Expanded control near Panteleimonivka.
• Kursk/Belgorod Border Zones (High Intensity):
  • Ongoing mutual combat. Fighting reported near Guyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy) (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • RU CLAIM: Repelled UA attacks near Basivka (Sumy); liquidated alleged Colombian mercenaries near Zhuravka (Sumy). Continued small UA group attempts near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod). Destroyed UA M113 APC, M88A2 ARV in Sumy Oblast during attempted UA attack.
  • RU INFO OPS: Russia banned AI-generated pro-UA song "Vstavay, Kursk!" as extremist. Plans UNSC meeting on alleged UA crimes in Kursk region.
• Novopavlivsk Direction (Significant Activity):
  • RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): Advance S of Rozlyv (1.5km cleared, including forest belts/dugouts); approx. 3km remaining to Bohatyr.
  • RU CLAIM (Previous): Full control of Vesele claimed by GpV "Vostok"; offensive continues towards Komar. Clearing W of Rozlyv towards Bohatyr from Kostiantynopil/Razdolne claimed.
• Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) Direction (High Activity):
  • RU CLAIM (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika): Offensive ongoing Kamyanske-Shcherbaky line. RU pushed UA from most of Lobkove (247th VDV), but settlement remains contested. Advances claimed towards Kamyanske (429th MRR) through forest belts, SW from Stepove, N in Shcherbaky. RU assessed to hold initiative.
  • UA Partisan Claim (ATESH): RU using unsupported small infantry groups for assaults, reportedly abandoning wounded due to unwillingness to risk vehicles for evacuation.
• Lyman Direction (High Intensity):
  • Sustained RU pressure. Heavy fighting in Serebryansky Forest continues.
  • RU CLAIM (Previous): Advance towards Katerynivka; near Novoliubivka.
• Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area):
  • Continued RU attacks repelled. UA forces targeting RU VDV units.
• Kherson Direction (Left Bank):
  • RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): Advance near islands, clearing 3.5km flank near Bolshoy Island. Destroyed UA arty position (Beryslav district). Hit UA PVD (~100 personnel) in Burgunka.

IV. Logistics, Personnel & Political Notes

• International Support & Diplomacy:
  • US-Russia Dialogue/Ceasefire: US Envoy Kellogg believes ceasefire "on the threshold" but needs compromise; acknowledges RU rejected US proposal "in its current form." (TASS/Dva Majora).
  • NATO: Allies committed >€20B military aid in Q1 2025 (Rutte).
  • US Sanctions: New sanctions on entities linked to Russian grain theft. Reports of potential new US tariffs (25% on imported beer/aluminum cans).
  • EU: Preparing contingency plans for potential impacts of US trade tariffs (Bloomberg).
  • Finland: Preparing withdrawal from Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines).
• Ukraine:
  • Information Operations (UA SZR Warning): Ongoing RU campaign aims to delegitimize UA authorities, promote external administration, undermine peace deals via Western/neutral media proxies (Magyar Nemzet, Salon24.pl, Réseau International), anonymous TG channels, social media campaigns, pro-RU figures.
  • Anti-Corruption: Lviv prosecutor detained on bribery charges (Apr 2).
• Russia:
  • Capabilities/Losses: Confirmed loss of Tu-22M3 bomber. Downed Albatros M5 UAV indicates deployment of newer recon systems.
  • Logistics/Morale: Reported criminal investigation into RU 70th MSD logistics officers (Kherson direction) for selling humanitarian aid (canned meat from Ufa plant donation) (Dva Majora). Continued crowdfunding for equipment (e.g., Mavic 3 batteries for VDV units - Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Personnel/Tactics: Alleged use of unsupported infantry assaults with high disregard for casualties (Zaporizhzhia - ATESH claim). Use of drone-dropped nets, potential camouflaged 'petal' mines reported previously. Use of "invisible cloaks" reported (Butusov).
  • Narrative/Info Ops: Framing Tu-22M3 crash as technical failure/crew heroism. Claiming UA drone ops use radio direction finders. Promoting narratives of RU society maturing (Rozhin), alleged UA atrocities (Kursk), UA responsibility for border conflict/energy strikes. Propagandizing POWs.
• Geopolitical Tensions (Iran): Multiple sources report increasing US/Israel vs. Iran tensions regarding Iran's nuclear program. Reports/claims (some contradictory) of Iran raising military readiness and potentially closing airspace ahead of possible attack deadline (September implied by some sources). US reportedly deploying B-2 bombers, additional carrier group to Middle East. French FM warns conflict "almost inevitable" without new deal. (Multiple sources).

Previous Report (2025-04-02 18:46:35Z)