Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 23:56 UTC

(Incorporating information up to March 29, 23:55 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity

• Combat Intensity: High. 198 combat engagements reported across the front as of 22:00 local time (19:00 UTC), March 29 (Ukrainian General Staff - UGS). Overall intensity remains elevated. Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike, 79 aviation strikes (using 135 KABs), deployed approximately 1,000 kamikaze drones, and executed over 4,500 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas since the beginning of the day (UGS).
• Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction remains the main axis of Russian ground offensive efforts, experiencing the highest combat intensity (73 Russian attempts to break through reported by UGS). Other highly contested directions include Lyman (23 attacks, plus 11 repelled by Luhansk OTU units), Toretsk (18 attacks), Novopavlivsk (15 attacks), Kramatorsk (13 clashes), Huliaipole (9 attacks), Kupyansk (6 assaults), and the Kursk/Sumy border areas (31 attacks repelled by UA forces operating in Kursk Oblast).
• Ukrainian Border Operations (Kursk/Sumy): President Zelenskyy confirmed ongoing Ukrainian active operations on Russian territory prevent Russian forces from staging significant offensive actions towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Ukrainian forces acknowledged operating from Kursk region southwards. UGS reports Ukrainian units repelled 31 Russian attacks within the operational zone in Kursk Oblast today. Russian forces in Kursk conducted 17 air strikes (22 KABs) and 254 artillery barrages (incl. 8 MLRS) against UA positions and settlements.
  • Russian commander (Apty Alaudinov via TASS) claims Russian forces are advancing in Sumy Oblast, preparing a "bridgehead for a push." (RU Claim)
• Environmental Factors: A significant dust storm continues to impact southern, central, and western oblasts with high winds (15-20 m/s), potentially degrading air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility. Poor road conditions due to mud near the Line of Contact (LoC) significantly restrict vehicle mobility.
• Potential Russian Offensive Preparations: Assessments vary (mid-late summer vs. end of spring). Russian sources continue reporting observation of Ukrainian force concentration near Bryansk Oblast border.
• Civilian Impact (UPDATED): Russian strikes continue to cause significant civilian casualties and damage infrastructure. Visual evidence confirms extensive damage in Kharkiv.
  • Kharkiv City (Ongoing Shahed Attack Aftermath - UPDATED):
    • Attack confirmed using Geran-2 (Shahed) drones (Kharkiv Prosecutor's Office via RBC-Ukraina). Total 6 strikes: 1 in Kholodnohirskyi District, 5 in Shevchenkivskyi District. Specific impacts included a direct hit on a private residential house (Kholodnohirskyi), and strikes near a high-rise office building, a medical facility, and another private residential house (Shevchenkivskyi) (Kharkiv Prosecutor's Office via RBC-Ukraina). Additional impacts confirmed in Kyivskyi district (earlier report).
    • Casualty figures updated & confirmed: 2 civilians KIA (identified as a male killed in a private house explosion in Shevchenkivskyi district and a female found deceased under rubble in Kholodnohirskyi district), 30 WIA (including 5 children aged 5-17; a 15-year-old girl remains in critical condition, 2 other children treated outpatient) (Kharkiv Prosecutor's Office via RBC-Ukraina, National Police). 1 man rescued from rubble (SES via RBC-Ukraina, Kharkiv OVA Head Syniehubov). Search and rescue ongoing.
    • Damaged structures include a shopping center, multi-story residential buildings, a medical facility (including the Military Hospital), an office building, private homes (one completely destroyed with 100 sq m fire), cars, garages, a bus stop, and other civilian businesses (bank, pharmacy, notary, trade objects). Fires reported at multiple locations. Extensive damage visually confirmed by multiple sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBC-Ukraina, Syniehubov, SES).
    • UGS confirms deliberate Shahed strike on the Kharkiv Military Hospital, damaging the building and nearby residential houses (confirmed by Tsaplienko). UGS states this constitutes a violation of international humanitarian law. Russian sources (Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor) acknowledge reports of the hospital strike, amplifying the UGS report and noting alleged military casualties. A Kharkiv city official previously stated no fatalities reported among patients at the hospital (Suspilne citing Kharkiv Dept. Emergency Situations, 23:19 UTC).
  • Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast (Mar 29): Russian shelling caused a fire in a private house and outbuilding. 2 civilians WIA (54F, 55M). Another residential building damaged, reports of additional casualties pending verification (Kharkiv OVA).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Mar 29): Kryvyi Rih (9 WIA from morning ballistic missile); Synelnykove District (2 WIA from kamikaze drones); Nikopol District (infrastructure damage from drones/artillery).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Mar 29): Polohy District (damage to private houses).
  • Dnipro City (Mar 28 Strike Aftermath): Total casualties remain 25 WIA (9 hospitalized, 2 critical). Civilian targeting confirmed.
• Energy Infrastructure: The threat of large-scale Russian strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure remains high. Zaporizhzhia Oblast grid sustains daily damage. Russian MoD accuses Ukraine of continued attacks on energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

• Ongoing Shahed/Geran Attack:
  • Multiple groups continue operating across Ukraine (UA Air Force, 22:32 UTC).
  • Movement Vectors (UA Air Force, 22:32-23:03 UTC):
    • From Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. UAVs reported heading towards Sumy city/outskirts (UA Air Force, 23:03 UTC), residents urged to shelter.
    • From Poltava Oblast (past Hlobyne) towards Cherkasy Oblast.
    • In Cherkasy Oblast (past Zolotonosha) heading southwest.
    • Through southern Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast.
    • On the border of Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
    • UAVs reported heading towards Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) (22:47 UTC).
  • Air Defense Activity: Confirmed active in Kyiv Oblast (KOVA via RBC-Ukraina, 22:37 UTC). Previously reported active earlier (20:42 UTC).
  • Uman Area (Cherkasy): Multiple UAV groups reported heading towards Uman (21:55 UTC, 22:15 UTC). Explosions reported in Uman district (Suspilne via RBC-Ukraina, 22:23 UTC), likely air defense activity or impacts.
  • Kharkiv Area: Attack confirmed using Geran-2 (Shahed) drones. Aftermath detailed in Section I.
  • Air alerts remain active in multiple central, northern, and eastern Oblasts due to UAV threat (as of 23:55 UTC).
• Russian Air Activity: Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity observed on northeastern and southeastern axes. UGS reports 79 Russian air strikes (135 KABs) across the front today. Specific strikes noted on Slatyne (Kharkiv Dir.), Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Oleksandropil, Sukhyi Yar, Poltavka, Kozatske, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Chunyshyne, Hryshyne, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk Dir.), Zelenyi Hai, Piddubne (Novopavlivsk Dir.), Huliaipole, Novopil, Zelene Pole (Huliaipole Dir.).
• Russian Strike Claims & Impacts (Verify Where Noted):
  • RU MoD Daily Claim (Mar 29): Claimed liberation of Panteleimonivka (Donetsk) and Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia). Claimed ongoing operations in Kursk Oblast caused UA >190 personnel losses, equipment destruction. Claimed Geran-2 UAV hit on UA 80th Air Assault Bde temporary position in Sumy Oblast. (RU Claims)
  • RU Claim (Basу, Sumy Oblast): Video released allegedly showing Geran-2 UAV strike hitting temporary deployment point of a UA 80th Air Assault Brigade DShB battalion in Basу. (RU Claim/Video - Corroborates earlier text claim, Colonelcassad 21:42 UTC).
  • RU Claim (Toretsk Direction): Claimed BM-21 Grad strike destroyed UA ammo transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), causing secondary detonations. (RU Claim/Video)
  • RU Claim (Kharkiv): Video shared claiming Geran detonation. Sources claim change in Geran tactics to massed, multi-directional strikes converging on specific targets. Acknowledged reports of strike on Kharkiv military hospital. Russian sources (RVvoenkor) re-posting UGS claim about the hospital strike, emphasizing alleged UA military casualties. (RU Source/Claim)
  • RU Claim (Kursk): Claimed Spetsnaz strike targeting Ukrainian forces concentration linked to cross-border operations near Demydovka area (Mar 29 footage). Claimed capture of mockups of M777 howitzers in Kursk Oblast. (RU Claim - Mockups suggest potential UA deception)
  • RU Claim (Air Strike): Video alleging successful air strike on UA personnel. (RU Claim/Video)
  • RU Claim (Hryhorivka Area): Video released allegedly showing strike by 3rd Army Corps (Southern Group) destroying a UA UAV control point and personnel near Hryhorivka (likely Donetsk Oblast, near Bakhmut/Siversk axis). (RU Claim/Video - Voin DV 22:00 UTC)
  • RU Claim (Orikhiv Direction): Video released allegedly showing "Viking" detachment destroying a Ukrainian howitzer using a fiber-optic guided drone. (RU Claim/Video - Colonelcassad 22:43 UTC)
  • RU Claim (Group 'Center' AOR, Mar 26 - NEW): Claimed UA losses on March 26 included 1 BMP, 1 ground drone, multiple vehicles, shelters, 1 tank, multiple antennas, and multiple Starlink terminals. (RU Claim/Video - Colonelcassad 23:03 UTC)
  • RU Claim (Pokrovsk Direction - NEW): Video released allegedly showing forces of the 16th Spetsnaz Brigade destroying a Ukrainian M113 APC near Novoserhiivka. (RU Claim/Video - Colonelcassad 23:39 UTC)
• Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory:
  • RU MoD continues to claim Ukrainian UAV/HIMARS attacks targeted energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.
• Ukrainian Drone Development & Activity:
  • GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Successful test interception of two Shaheds during Mar 29 night attack confirmed. Production scaling planned.
  • Long-Range FPV Drones (RU Claim): Russian military expert (via TASS, 22:19 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces are now using FPV drones with ranges up to 40 km practically along the entire front line. (RU Claim)
  • Operational Drone Strikes:
    • Pilots of 2nd Mech Bn, 30th OMBR shown hunting RU Mavic drones with custom drone equipped with shotgun.
    • Units in Luhansk Operational Tactical Group (OTU) area (54th OMBR, 81st OAeMBR, 10th OGSHBr) documented destruction of RU equipment (ATVs, buggies, motorcycles, LATS) and personnel during repelled assaults (11 RU assaults repelled, 109 RU personnel neutralized, 45 light vehicles destroyed).
    • 414th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Aerial Systems ("Magyar's Birds") reported hitting 201 enemy targets over the past 24 hours, including neutralizing 96 enemy personnel. (UA Claim/Video - Operatyvnyi ZSU 21:50 UTC)
• Russian Drone Development & Tactics:
  • Tactical Evolution Claim: RU sources claim shift in Geran/Shahed tactics to massed, multi-directional strikes. (RU Claim)
  • New FPV Aircraft Claim: RU sources claim use of fiber-optic guided FPV "KVN" drone to strike UA personnel on ATV. Updated Claim: Use of fiber-optic guided drone by "Viking" detachment claimed to destroy UA howitzer on Orikhiv axis. (RU Claim/Video - Colonelcassad 22:43 UTC)
• Russian EW/ADS: RU milbloggers emphasize the increasing importance of EW and Active Protection Systems (APS) for vehicle protection against drones, noting the need for faster development cycles similar to IT, as current traditional defense industry timelines are too slow. (RU Assessment)
• NATO Anti-KAB Initiative: Results announced, winning concept uses AI for early detection/ID. Other concepts included acoustic arrays, FPV swarms, EW.
• UXO Clearance: UA sappers active in Kryvyi Rih District.
• Russian Air Defence Activity (Kherson): Video released allegedly showing RU Strela-10 SAM system engaging a UA drone. (RU Claim/Video)

III. Frontline Developments by Direction

• Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations:
  • Ukrainian Stance & Operations: DPSU denies Russian claims of border breakthrough. UGS reports 31 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast operational zone today; intense RU air/artillery continues. Zelenskyy confirms UA active operations deter RU advances into Sumy/Kharkiv.
  • Russian Claims (Kursk RU): Persist in claiming advances near border settlements (Hoholivka, MAPP Sudzha, Oleshnia, Huyevo, Russkoye Porechnoye, Pogrebki). Claim capture of UA M777 mockups. RU MoD claims causing >190 UA personnel losses in Kursk ops today. Claimed UAV strike on UA 80th Bde in Basу (Sumy).
  • Russian Assessment (Kursk/Sumy Border): Claim RU advances in Sumy Oblast preparing bridgehead (Alaudinov). Note increased UA long-range FPV use. Claim RU strikes target UA border fortification construction.
  • Russian Claims (Belgorod RU): Claim advances near Popovka/Demydovka. Claimed Spetsnaz strike targeting UA forces near Demydovka.
• Kharkiv Direction: UGS reports UA forces stopped 2 RU attacks near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka; 1 engagement ongoing. RU air strike on Slatyne. Kupyansk shelled, 2 civilians WIA, residential damage. Ongoing Shahed attack aftermath in Kharkiv city detailed in Section I.
• Kupyansk Direction: High Intensity. UGS reports 6 RU assaults towards Pishchane, Petropavlivka, and near Zahryzove. 5 attacks repelled, 1 ongoing.
• Lyman Direction: High Intensity. UGS reports 23 Russian attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, Torske, and towards Nove, Olhivka, Novomykhailivka. 5 engagements ongoing. RU pressing towards Yampolivka. In the Luhansk OTU zone of responsibility, Ukrainian forces (54th OMBR, 81st OAeMBR, 10th OGSHBr) repelled 11 Russian assaults, claiming significant RU personnel and light vehicle losses.
• Siversk Direction: UGS reports 3 RU assaults near Ivano-Darivka and Pereizne. 2 repelled, 1 ongoing. Russian strike claim near Hryhorivka (see II.).
• Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar): UGS reports 13 combat engagements today towards Maiske, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Predtechyne, Bila Hora, near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Kurdyumivka.
  • RU Claimed Repelled UA Attack: Russian sources claim VDV forces (98th Division) repelled a UA assault towards Chasiv Yar (morning Mar 29), destroying 1 tank and 5 armored vehicles of the UA 24th Brigade. (RU Claim/Video)
• Toretsk Direction: High Intensity. UGS reports 18 Russian attacks repelled today. Main RU effort near Krymske, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka.
  • RU claimed Grad strike on UA ammo transport near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). (RU Claim/Video)
  • RU MoD claimed liberation of Panteleimonivka. (RU Claim)
• Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. Primary RU focus. UGS reports 73 Russian attempts to break through UA defenses today near Novotoretske, Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Vodiane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Sribne, Andriivka, and towards Kotlyarivka. 4 engagements ongoing.
  • Significant RU Losses Claimed (UGS): 193 RU personnel neutralized (174 KIA) on this direction today. Equipment destroyed: 5 vehicles, 3 UAV control antennas, 1 motorcycle, 1 ATV, 1 artillery gun, 1 mortar, 1 EW station, 3 SATCOM terminals, 2 generators, 1 Supercam recon UAV, 1 UAV control point. Damaged: 1 tank, 1 vehicle, 2 dugouts, 1 MLRS.
  • Claimed UA Loss (RU): Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian M113 APC by the 16th Spetsnaz Brigade near Novoserhiivka. (RU Claim/Video - Colonelcassad 23:39 UTC)
  • RU air strikes on multiple settlements including Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Oleksandropil, Pokrovsk.
• Novopavlivsk Direction (South Donetsk / Vremivka): High Intensity. UGS reports 15 Russian attacks successfully repelled near Kostyantynopil, Skudne, and towards Rozlyv. RU air strikes on Zelenyi Hai and Piddubne.
• Huliaipole Direction: UGS reports 9 Russian attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, and towards Novopil. RU air strikes on Huliaipole, Novopil, Zelene Pole.
• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): UGS reports 2 Russian attacks near Kam'yanske and Lobkove.
  • RU Friendly Fire Incident Claim: UA 72nd Brigade sources claim RU forces mistakenly engaged their own positions near Novoandriivka. (UA Claim/Video)
  • RU MoD claimed liberation of Shcherbaki. (RU Claim)
  • RU Claimed Artillery Strike: Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer using a fiber-optic guided drone on this axis. (RU Claim/Video - Colonelcassad 22:43 UTC)
• Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): UGS reports 2 unsuccessful Russian assaults towards Sadove and Prydniprovske. Positional fighting continues. Anecdotal video from RU perspective shows difficult conditions.

IV. Technological & Other Military Developments

• Ukrainian Space Capability Development: MoD established Directorate of Space Policy aiming for space forces, national defense satellites by 2030, enhanced ISR/EW. Russian sources deride this initiative.
• Ukrainian Personnel:
  • 59th Brigade (Unmanned Systems Forces): Officially joined "Contract 18-24" recruitment program, transforming from motorized infantry to drone-assault focus. Emphasizes robotics to minimize human risk. Offers significant financial incentives for 18-24 year olds in specific roles.
  • Units commended by UGS (Mar 29): 101st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade, 34th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade for holding against superior forces. Previously commended: 35th Marines (Pokrovsk), 47th Mech, SSO, 225th Assault Regt. Units commended in Luhansk OTU: 54th OMBR, 81st OAeMBR, 10th OGSHBr. "Da Vinci Wolves" unit highlighted in recruitment/morale video. 414th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Aerial Systems ("Magyar's Birds") active reporting high target engagement rate.
• Russian Tactical Issues: UA 72nd Brigade video alleges RU friendly fire incident near Novoandriivka (Zaporizhzhia). Reports from Luhansk OTU highlight significant RU losses in personnel and light transport (motorcycles, ATVs, buggies) during assaults.
• Alleged Russian War Crimes (UPDATED): UGS formally accuses Russia of war crime for the deliberate Shahed strike on Kharkiv Military Hospital. Widespread damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv confirmed by SES/OVA/Prosecutor's Office. Previous allegations include execution of POWs/civilians.
• Russian Strategic Assessment (via Biletsky): RU strategy assessed as attrition ("thousand cuts").
• Russian Internal Information Environment: Crowdfunding efforts persist (drones, batteries, armor). Reports of soldier morale posts emphasizing support from home. Commentary on need for better EW/ADS highlights perceived shortfalls. RU sources promote narratives of alleged TCC actions in Odesa and alleged PCOU/police seizures of UOC churches in Kyiv Oblast. RU sources promote narrative of Kherson tourism potential under occupation.
• Security/Counter-Intelligence: Alleged lawyer/TCC misconduct case circulating internally in Ukraine. Russian info ops target Ukrainian mobilization efforts and religious tensions.

V. Political & Economic Context

• US-Ukraine Economic/Resource Agreement Talks: Ongoing discussions.
• International Reaction & Support: Zelenskyy calls for strong reaction to Shahed attack on Kharkiv hospital.
• US Public Opinion Shift (RU Report): Russian sources (Colonelcassad citing CNN) report polling data indicating a significant decline in US public support for Ukraine aid levels (41% believe it's "too much" vs 7% in Feb 2022) and decreasing confidence in President Zelenskyy (48% confident in 2024 vs 72% in 2022). Reportedly, 78% of Americans support a peace agreement. (RU Dissemination of US Polling Data)
• UN Temporary Administration Mechanism (RU Perspective): Russian MFA outlined process via TASS, emphasizing requirement for mutual agreement between conflict parties and UNSC approval (incl. P5 consensus).

Previous Report (2025-03-29 23:27:14Z)