Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 14:30 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (14:00 UTC - 14:30 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURING KUBATKINO (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (14:00 UTC): Claims Russian forces are still in Kursk Oblast, despite prior reports suggesting they had left.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST and adds the CLAIM OF SUSTAINED PRESENCE. URGENT VERIFICATION REMAINS CRITICAL.

2. UKRAINIAN DRONE SHOOTS DOWN RUSSIAN DRONES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (14:23 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces, specifically the HORIZON GROUP of the 81st Air Assault Brigade, shot down 5 Zala, 5 Supercam, and 1 Orlan drones using FPV interceptors. Includes video.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM of UKRAINIAN DRONE INTERCEPTOR CAPABILITY. IF CONFIRMED, this DEMONSTRATES A NEW TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT. URGENT VERIFICATION of the VIDEO and INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION are ESSENTIAL.

3. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (14:29 UTC): Claims FPV drone teams of the Sever Group of Forces destroyed a pickup truck and a quad bike of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kharkiv Oblast. Includes video.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN USE OF FPV DRONES to TARGET UKRAINIAN VEHICLES in KHARKIV OBLAST. This DEMONSTRATES RUSSIAN CAPABILITY to DISRUPT UKRAINIAN MOVEMENTS and INFLICT LOSSES.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURE OF KONSTANTINOPOL (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Сливочный каприз (14:09): Russian forces place a flag in the remains of the town.
   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:15 UTC): Claims Russian flag raised over "liberated" Konstantinopol. Claims assault units of the "Vostok" group cleared and secured the settlement. Mentions the use of assault drones and artillery. Includes video and map.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports, but the town is completely destroyed.

5. SAMP/T AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM ISSUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (14:15 UTC): Claims the French-Italian SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine is experiencing significant operational problems, including software malfunctions, lack of Aster missiles, and poor performance compared to the Patriot system.
   • Assessment: THIS REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. IF TRUE, this represents a SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS in UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES, particularly against BALLISTIC MISSILES. The CLAIM OF ASTER MISSILE SHORTAGES is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING.

6. UKRAINIAN SOLDIER CAPTURED NEAR MALAYA LOKNYA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

   • Kotsnews (14:12): Claims a Ukrainian soldier from the 95th Brigade was captured near Malaya Loknya. Soldier claims he had no contact with commanders, was ordered to "hold," and that his phone was taken, preventing him from contacting family.
   • Assessment: Provides additional indication of the presence and POTENTIAL DISARRAY within the UKRAINIAN 95TH BRIGADE.

7. OTHER REPORTS:

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (14:02): Announces the end of an air alarm.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:02): Reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs on Kharkiv.
   • ТАСС (14:16): Reports another Ukrainian UAV was shot down over the Belgorod region.

• Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:17): Claims, since the start of the day, 95 combat clashes have occurred. Lists places attacked by KABs.
  • Alex Parker Returns (14:13): Claims yesterday's psychological operation has worked, with Ukrainian forces retreating, citing panic created in social media and media.
• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (14:11): Claims in the past 24 hours, over 350 Ukrainian forces have been killed, and 6 have surrendered. * Сливочный каприз (14:09 UTC): Shows a map of the situation in the Kurakhovo region.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE CAPTURED KUBATKINO (KURSK OBLAST) and MAINTAIN PRESENCE. URGENT VERIFICATION ESSENTIAL.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES claimed in KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE CAPTURED KONSTANTINOPOL.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN FPV DRONES INTERCEPTING RUSSIAN DRONES. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKE on UKRAINIAN VEHICLES in KHARKIV OBLAST.

• ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED PROBLEMS WITH UKRAINIAN SAMP/T AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
  • Reports of a captured Ukrainian soldier.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (excluding satellite imagery, if unavailable) to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of SUSTAINED PRESENCE in KURSK OBLAST.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • Assess the extent of the Russian advance and DETERMINE IF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES HAVE BEEN BREACHED.
     • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the area.
     • ESTABLISH ALTERNATIVE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
     • CONDUCT A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL to PREVENT ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
     • LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS to BREAK ANY ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • IF NOT CONFIRMED:
     • Continue monitoring the SITUATION CLOSELY.
     • Prepare for potential Russian offensive operations in the AREA.

2. VERIFY UKRAINIAN DRONE INTERCEPTOR CAPABILITY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ANALYZE THE VIDEO provided by STERNENKO to ASSESS THE CREDIBILITY of the CLAIM.
   • SEEK INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION from OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • Assess the tactical implications of this NEW CAPABILITY.
     • Develop strategies to EXPLOIT THIS CAPABILITY and COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS.

3. ADDRESS RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED SURVEILLANCE of RUSSIAN FPV DRONE ACTIVITY in KHARKIV OBLAST.
   • DEPLOY COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES to PROTECT UKRAINIAN VEHICLES and PERSONNEL.

4. INVESTIGATE SAMP/T AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM ISSUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY ASSESS THE OPERATIONAL STATUS of the SAMP/T SYSTEM.
   • VERIFY THE CLAIMS of SOFTWARE MALFUNCTIONS and ASTER MISSILE SHORTAGES.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • Develop contingency plans to COMPENSATE FOR REDUCED AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITY.
     • Seek alternative solutions to ADDRESS THE SHORTFALLS.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, with CONTINUED RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST and NEW CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN DRONE INTERCEPTOR CAPABILITY. The REPORTED PROBLEMS WITH THE SAMP/T SYSTEM are HIGHLY CONCERNING. The CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY continues to SEVERELY IMPAIR UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THE RISKS and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.995
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
• A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
• Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
• 40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
• Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
• Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
• A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
• Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
• Russian forces officially liberated Viktorovka.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces are fleeing Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Kositsa.: 0.6
• Poland announced military training for all men.: 0.3
• Republicans are calling on Trump to restore aid to Ukraine.: 0.4
• The main task of the Ukrainian army is to not lose what they currently hold.: 0.4
• Russian forces liberated Staraya Sorochina yesterday.: 0.4
• There is a threat of ballistic missile usage for Poltava.: 0.6
• Russian forces advanced 3km from Razdolnoye towards Bogatyr.:0.6
• The attack in Dobropillia injured up to 47 people and killed 11.: 0.9
• At least 20 civilians were killed in Russian attacks across Ukraine since the start of the day.: 0.8
• Russian forces used a gas pipeline near Sudzha to launch a surprise attack.: 0.37
• The pipeline attack was a disinformation campaign.: 0.4
• Hungary opposes financing an increase to the Ukranian military and opposes Ukraine's rapid ascension to the EU.: 0.7
• 5 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.6
• Russian forces are storming Malaya Loknya.: 0.6
• One person was killed, and 5 were injured in Russian attacks in the Donetsk Region.: 0.7
• A bridge was destroyed on the bypass of Sudzha, impacting logistics for the Ukrainian forces.: 0.91
• Ukrainian forces repelled 12 attacks in the Kursk region.: 0.75
• Russian forces captured Konstantinopol.: 0.995
• Russian forces liberated Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.: 0.7
• Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
• A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
• Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
• Sudzha: 0.8
• Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
• Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
• POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
• *UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
• *New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
• *New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
• *Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
• *German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
• *Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
• *Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
• Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
• REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
• Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
• Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
• Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
• Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
• Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
• Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
• An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
• Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
• Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
• Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
• Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
• The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
• There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
• There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
• Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
• Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52
• US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal: 0.77
• Russian forces liberated houses in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina equipped as firing positions by Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries.: 0.6
• US technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine has stopped.: 0.5
• The militarization of youth is occurring in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the use of the "Yunarmiya" youth military organization.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the DPR.: 0.42
• The US has partially ceased supporting Ukrainian F-16s, but only for the radar jamming systems.: 0.85
• Russian forces claim they captured Lebedevka: 0.7
• Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation.: 0.7
• Russian drone strike killed 2 and injured 1: 0.9
• Russian forces claim advances in Kursk Oblast: 0.8
• Russian forces have practically encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.: 0.5
• A Russian "Tor" was destroyed: 0.42
• 9 vehicles were destroyed in Sudzha.: 0.7
• A drone struck a house in Bilenke, injuring a young man.: 0.8
• Building damaged by shelling/airstrike.: 0.48
• Image is being used for propaganda purposes.: 0.12
• The area requires humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation.: 0.12
• Building damaged due to non-military cause (e.g., earthquake, structural failure).: 0.08
• China, Russia and Iran are holding a joint naval exercise.: 0.6
• Ukrainian drones have been destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.5
• Launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk.: 0.6
• A high-speed target is heading towards Poltava.: 0.35
• Russian forces advanced near Pyatikhatki and Shcherbaki: 0.4
• Ukrainian forces are resisting, using artillery and drones: 0.5
• Russian air force and "Grad" rocket systems are targeting Ukrainian forward positions: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are actively using drones, including kamikaze drones and Baba Yaga drones: 0.7
• Russian forces are successfully identifying and targeting Ukrainian drone launch sites: 0.6
• There is evidence of nationalist and aggressive ideology within Ukrainian forces: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are taking heavy losses, with some personnel choosing to end their lives rather than surrender: 0.7
• Russia preparing for a large-scale missile strike.: 0.6
• Russian reconnaissance is taking place in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Ternopil Oblasts.: 0.6
• Russian forces captured Kubatkino.: 0.7
• Group Aida SpN 'Akhmat' jointly with 30 MSP liberated Kubatkino using an underground maneuver.: 0.8
• Ballistic threat reduced, but air threat still present: 0.65
• Ukrainian drone shoots down Russian drones.: 0.7
• Russian forces still in the Kursk region.: 0.7

Previous Report (2025-03-09 14:00:59Z)