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Situation Report

2025-03-08 20:37:53Z
Previous Report (2025-03-08 20:07:22Z)

Key Military Developments in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 20:37 UTC

1. Widespread, Multi-Regional Drone Attack (CONFIRMED, ONGOING, EXPANDING)

  • Multiple Ukrainian sources (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, РБК-Україна) confirm a significant and ongoing drone attack.
  • Targeted Regions: Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Kyiv Oblasts. This is a very broad attack.
  • New reports from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (20:19 UTC) indicate drone movements:
    • 3 west of Kirovohrad Oblast, moving to Cherkasy Oblast
    • 2 towards/through Kropyvnytskyi
    • 4 near Cherkasy
    • 1 north of Poltava Oblast
    • 1 near Zlatopil, Kharkiv Oblast
    • 2 west of Zaporizhzhia
    • 13 from Chernihiv Oblast to Kyiv Oblast
    • 17 from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast
    • 1 east of Chernihiv, moving south
    • 1 approaching Brovary (near Kyiv) - POTENTIAL IMMINENT THREAT
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok reports a high volume of "Shahed" drones, indicating a large-scale, coordinated attack.
  • РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report approximately 10 explosions in Zaporizhzhia, confirming the city is under direct attack.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy drone activity near Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kremenchu, Chernihiv, and Poltava, with potential air defense engagement. KAB launches were also reported in the Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Donestsk regions.
  • Air Raid alerts are in place in Kyiv (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна).
  • Assessment: This represents a MAJOR, ONGOING, AND EXPANDING THREAT. The attack is now confirmed to be TARGETING MULTIPLE REGIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY, including ZAPORIZHIA CITY and now potentially KYIV (BROVARY AREA). Air defense is actively engaged, but the SCALE of the attack is CONCERNING. The NUMBER AND DIVERSITY OF REPORTED DRONE MOVEMENTS suggests a COMPLEX AND COORDINATED ATTACK.

2. Intense Fighting and Conflicting Reports in Kursk Region (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, HIGHLY DYNAMIC)

  • Confirmed Russian Advances:

    • Z комитет + карта СВО (20:10 UTC) claims Russian forces have been PUSHED OUT of LEBEDEVKA, VIKTOROVKA, and CHERKASSKOYE PORECHNOYE. Claims FIGHTING CONTINUES in MALAYA LOKNYA and MARTYNOVKA.
    • Alex Parker Returns (20:33 UTC) claims MARTYNOVKA is LIBERATED.
    • Z комитет + карта СВО (20:33) advances are also reported at MAKNOVKA and KURILOVKA.
    • MoD Russia (20:33 UTC) claims the Sever Group of Forces LIBERATED VIKTOROVKA, NIKOLAYEVKA, and STARAYA SOROCHINA.
    • Рыбарь (21:00 UTC): Reports that Russian forces have taken control of Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with fighting ongoing for Viktorovka.

  • Colonelcassad (20:31 UTC): Claims they have taken control over Nikolaevka. * Assessment: While claims from opposing sides require continued verification, there's INCREASING EVIDENCE from MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES, including the RUSSIAN MoD, pointing to SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION. The capture of STARAYA SOROCHINA, NIKOLAYEVKA and VIKTOROVKA appears INCREASINGLY LIKELY, though FIGHTING CONTINUES in other areas.

  • Claims of Ukrainian Counteraction to Pipeline Infiltration Confirmed: * Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (19:43 UTC), Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України(19:43),РБК-Україна(20:03), and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:48 UTC) all report that Ukrainian forces COUNTERED a Russian attempt to use a GAS PIPELINE for infiltration near SUDZHA. Video evidence is provided. ASTRA (19:52 UTC) also confirms this, reporting the Ukrainian General Staff's statement about VERY HIGH RUSSIAN LOSSES in the area. Reports suggest this tactic was a REPLICATION of methods used in AVDIIVKA.

  • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦(20:07), and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno(20:18) also report on the story, with a video. Claims of cassette rounds used.

  • STERNENKO (20:27) also reports on the story. * Alex Parker Returns (20:25): Reports on the claim that all of the Russian soldiers died. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS the use of a GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION by Russian forces, and UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of a SUCCESSFUL COUNTERACTION are INCREASINGLY CREDIBLE due to MULTIPLE SOURCES and VIDEO EVIDENCE. The SPECIFIC LOCATION is identified as near SUDZHA, and the TACTIC is linked to PREVIOUS RUSSIAN OPERATIONS in AVDIIVKA. The EXTENT OF RUSSIAN LOSSES remains UNCLEAR, but the UKRAINIAN CLAIM of "very large" losses is REPEATED by MULTIPLE SOURCES.

  • Intense Fighting Near Sudzha:

    • Alex Parker Returns (19:38 UTC) reports the "Pyaterochka" store in Sudzha has been RECAPTURED by Russian forces.
    • Сливочный каприз (20:06 UTC) reports Russian advances of over 4 km towards Sudzha, with new positions near the northern entrance to the eastern part of the city. Claims Russian positions near the railway are under Ukrainian fire.
    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:30 UTC) reports a Ukrainian column attempting to flee Sudzha is UNDER ATTACK and being DESTROYED. Provides video evidence.
    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (20:30 UTC) reports a Ukrainian column of 8 vehicles was DESTROYED by Russian MLRS fire after a bridge near Martynovka was destroyed.
    • Colonelcassad (20:36) Claims significant casualties, and ongoing combat.
    • Assessment: INTENSE FIGHTING continues IN AND AROUND SUDZHA. RUSSIAN FORCES claim to have RECAPTURED the "Pyaterochka" store and are ADVANCING towards the city. REPORTS OF A UKRAINIAN COLUMN UNDER ATTACK while ATTEMPTING TO FLEE suggest a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES in the area. The DESTRUCTION OF A BRIDGE near MARTYNOVKA is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, potentially HINDERING UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL OR REINFORCEMENT.

  • Malaya Loknya

  • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:59): Reports that the 34th brigade and 9th regiment captured the first street. Reports the use of drone strikes.

  • Assessment: Claims of advances in the region.

3. Reported Strikes and Casualties (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

  • РБК-Україна (19:40 UTC) reports approximately 10 explosions in Zaporizhzhia.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:43 UTC) confirms up to 10 explosions in Zaporizhzhia.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:55 UTC): Reports that the Russians attacked the energy infrastructure of Odesa.
  • Assessment: Confirms that Russian forces continue attacks on civilian infrastructure.

4. Air Activity and Alerts (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:52 UTC): Reports multiple Shahed drone movements across several regions.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:56, 19:59, 20:02 UTC): Reports the launch of KAB (guided aerial bombs) on Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts. A threat to Kremenchuk, Chernihiv and Poltava.
  • Игорь Артамонов (20:08) Reports an air alert in Lipetsk.
  • Assessment: Confirms air activity across a broad region.

5. Other Notable Developments:

  • TACC (19:45): Reports on a fire at a market in Makhachkala.
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:46): Reports a request to fund the purchasing of drones for the Kursk region.
  • Два майора (19:51): Reports fundraising for armor.
  • Два майора (20:02 UTC): Reports on Telegram being blocked in the Caucasus.

6. Propaganda:

  • STERNENKO (19:44): Reports on the killing of an injured Russian soldier.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (19:57): Propaganda message about the families of fallen Russian soldiers.
  • Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (20:04): Anti-Ukrainian message.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:55, 20:19): Congratulatory message to women, and report on Kursk.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:20): Reports on the deaths of Russian soldiers.
  • Assessment: Various reports, some requiring further verification, and some propaganda.

7. Syria:

  • Colonelcassad (19:45): Reports on the Alawite uprising.
  • Alex Parker Returns (20:04, 20:28): Reports on the situation in Syria.
  • Assessment: Reports on the ongoing situation in Syria.

8. US and International Politics:

  • РБК-Україна (19:57): Reports on Zelenskyy's meeting with the USA.
  • ТАСС (19:59): Reports Trump's support for a budget bill.
  • Assessment: Reports on the political situation.

Overall Assessment

The situation is EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL. The WIDESPREAD, MULTI-REGIONAL DRONE ATTACK is the MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT, with MULTIPLE REGIONS, including KYIV, now under ALERT. The KURSK REGION remains a MAJOR FOCUS OF CONFLICT, with INCREASING EVIDENCE of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and INTENSE FIGHTING, particularly IN AND AROUND SUDZHA. The CONFIRMED USE of a GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION by Russian forces, and the UKRAINIAN CLAIM of a SUCCESSFUL COUNTERACTION, is a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

Immediate Recommendations

  1. PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Maintain MAXIMUM DEPLOYMENT AND ACTIVATION of ALL AVAILABLE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across Ukraine, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on ZAPORIZHZHIA CITY, KYIV, and other TARGETED REGIONS.
    • Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
    • Coordinate with ALLIED FORCES for MAXIMUM DETECTION AND INTERCEPTION.
    • Maintain HIGH ALERT for POTENTIAL MISSILE STRIKES.
    • IMMEDIATELY ADDRESS the DRONE THREAT to KYIV (BROVARY AREA).

  2. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • URGENTLY REINFORCE Ukrainian positions AROUND SUDZHA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT.
    • ASSESS THE FEASIBILITY of HOLDING CURRENT POSITIONS given the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
    • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POSSIBLE WITHDRAWAL, including PRIORITIZED EVACUATION ROUTES.
    • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE RESOURCES to DETECT AND COUNTER Russian use of UNDERGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE for infiltration, particularly near SUDZHA.
    • This includes SENSOR NETWORKS, GROUND-PENETRATING RADAR (if available), INCREASED HUMAN INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, and PHYSICAL INSPECTION of POTENTIAL ACCESS POINTS.
    • Develop and implement COUNTERMEASURES to BLOCK OR NEUTRALIZE known or suspected INFILTRATION ROUTES.

  3. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Continue MAXIMUM DEPLOYMENT of ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to confirm or refute Russian claims.
    • Assess the IMPACT on Ukrainian defensive positions if claims are confirmed.

  4. MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continuously monitor battlefield conditions, troop movements, and air activity.
    • Provide commanders with REAL-TIME UPDATES and THREAT ASSESSMENTS.

  5. ADDRESS LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES (AS NEEDED):

    • Monitor for any reports of equipment shortages.
    • Ensure funding for units, especially those requesting resources.

  6. MONITOR AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Continue to monitor the situation.

  7. ASSESS AND ADDRESS CONFLICTING REPORTS ON RUSSIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Gather additional intelligence to CLARIFY THE DISCREPANCIES between UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES in the SUDZHA PIPELINE INCIDENT and RUSSIAN REPORTS suggesting LOWER LOSSES.
    • Assess the potential impact of DISINFORMATION on MORALE AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION.

[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

  • The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
  • Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
  • The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
  • The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
  • The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
  • The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
  • Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
  • Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.97
  • Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.85
  • Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
  • Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
  • Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
  • 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
  • Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
  • Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
  • Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
  • Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
  • Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
  • Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
  • Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
  • Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
  • There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
  • Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
  • Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
  • Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
  • Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
  • The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
  • Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
  • There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
  • Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
  • There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
  • There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
  • Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
  • There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
  • Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
  • Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
  • Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
  • There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
  • Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
  • A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
  • A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
  • A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
  • Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
  • Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
  • Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
  • There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
  • Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
  • There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
  • Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
  • There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
  • A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
  • Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
  • Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
  • Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
  • Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
  • Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
  • Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
  • The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
  • The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
  • The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
  • The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
  • Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
  • A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
  • The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
  • US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
  • The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
  • The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
  • Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
  • The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
  • The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
  • The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
  • Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
  • Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
  • The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
  • Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
  • Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
  • Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
  • On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
  • Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
  • Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
  • Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
  • Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
  • The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
  • One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
  • Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
  • Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
  • Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
  • 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
  • Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
  • Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
  • Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
  • Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
  • Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
  • Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
  • Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
  • The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
  • Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
  • There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
  • There is a widespread, multi-regional drone attack across Ukraine.: 0.98
  • The city of Kyiv is under threat of drone attack.: 0.83
  • Russian forcers have reportedly been pushed out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.: 0.77
  • Russian forces captured Martynovka.: 0.72

The new messages further confirm the widespread and intense drone attack across Ukraine, with multiple regions, including now Kyiv, under direct threat. The ongoing air raid alerts and specific drone movement reports from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok paint a picture of a highly complex and coordinated attack requiring immediate and widespread air defense activation.

The situation in the Kursk region remains highly dynamic and critical. While previous reports highlighted Russian advances, the new message from Z комитет + карта СВО claims Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and are now fighting for Malaya Loknya and Martynovka. This conflicts with claims of the opposite from Alex Parker Returns and MoD Russia, although these were from the previous six hours. The situation requires careful monitoring, and the need for reinforcements and robust defenses around Sudzha remains paramount. The use of the gas pipeline for infiltration by Russian forces, and Ukrainian forces' successful counteraction is confirmed.

Previous Report (2025-03-08 20:07:22Z)