Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 2, 2025, 08:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, with significant advances reported around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk). They have expanded their control zone near Kurakhove, reaching the northern outskirts of Krasne (Sontsovka), capturing part of Slavyanka, and liberating Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and Gigant. They are also advancing near Novoelizavetovka, Ukrainka, and west of Myrnohrad, controlling Vozdvizhenka and a major strongpoint along the C-05-09-07 highway. The capture of Vozdvyzhenka is further confirmed by pro-Russian sources, emphasizing the strategic goal of cutting off the highway to Pokrovsk and encircling the city from the right flank. In the Vremivka direction, they captured Novyi Komar and Novopustynka, liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road, and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne.

In the Mezheve (Krasnoarmiisk, left flank) direction, Russian forces report taking most of Novovasylivka, with ongoing cleanup operations in the western part of the village. They are also applying pressure south of Uspenovka and advancing in the fields along the ravines and forest belts. After securing the western part of Novoelizavetovka, Russian assault units are attacking Nadezhdinka and to the south, across the dam, towards Sribne and Novoandreevka. Simultaneously, Russian assault units are engaged in battles to capture Yaseneve (Yasenovoe). Southeast of this area, Russian forces have entered Slavyanka and Petropavlovka, securing their positions and continuing to advance. Further south, battles are ongoing for a Ukrainian fortified area. North of Shevchenko, Russian forces have captured some Ukrainian positions on the eastern side.

Heavy fighting continues in the Pokrovsk direction, with Russian forces attempting to encircle the city rather than engage in direct assaults. Ukrainian forces are actively countering, with reports of 47 out of 72 enemy drones shot down, and 24 drones that failed to reach their targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast by Russian tactical aviation, indicating continued and potentially expanding aerial threats. The destruction of a Ukrainian radar station AN/TPQ-36 by Russian forces is reported by pro-Russian sources, showcasing the ongoing battle for technological superiority.

Drone warfare remains a critical component, with extensive use by both sides. Ukrainian drone operators from the 66th Mechanized Brigade report successful targeting of Russian soldiers, as evidenced by thermal imaging footage. Ukrainian forces report the destruction of two "Shahed" drones by the 35th Sumy Regiment of the National Guard. Ukrainian forces released a compilation video highlighting their successful drone operations, destroying Russian equipment and personnel, specifically targeting an antenna complex and a "Bukhmobile". A Russian drone attack on Ukrainian positions using FPV drones resulted in five casualties.

Key Developments

Russian Military Actions and Advances

• Donetsk Region:

  • Positional battles near Kurakhove, with Russian infantry attacking towards Petropavlivka.
  • Russian forces expanded their control zone in Krasne (Sontsovka), reaching the northern outskirts.
  • Heavy fighting in Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk, with active assault operations.
  • Russian forces are advancing west of Uspenovka and expanding the control zone northwest of Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud in the DPR.
  • Russian forces liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and advancing on Yantarnoye, destroying a bridge over the Volchya River in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces liberated an additional 5 sq km, advancing south of Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces captured Novyi Komar and Novopustynka in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces liberated Makarivka on December 16th and gained control over the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces liberated Uspenovka, and Ukrainian forces withdrew from the "Uspenivka pocket."
  • Russian forces liberated Neskuchne in DPR.
  • Russian forces liberated more than 5 square kilometers of the territory of the DPR and are advancing from the settlement of Zarya towards Yasenev in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces have taken control of Novoolenivka, Donetsk People's Republic.
  • Russian forces report destroying one IFV and one APC near Yantarne, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces report advancing near Vovkovo, Solone, and Novovasylivka.
  • Russian forces report advancing near Kurakhove thermal power plant.
  • Russian forces report advancing in Dzerzhinsk near waste heap No. 10.
  • In Mezheve (Krasnoarmiisk, left flank) direction, Russian forces report taking most of Novovasylivka.
  • Russian forces are also applying pressure south of Uspenovka.
  • After securing the western part of Novoelizavetovka, Russian assault units are attacking Nadezhdinka and to the south, across the dam, towards Sribne and Novoandreevka.
  • Russian assault units are engaged in battles to capture Yaseneve (Yasenovoe).
  • Southeast, Russian forces have entered Slavyanka and Petropavlovka.
  • North of Shevchenko, Russian forces have captured some Ukrainian positions on the eastern side.
  • Positional fighting is reported in the Lysychansk-Belohorivka area, with Russian forces advancing approximately 800 meters.

• Kursk Region:

  • Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
  • Ukrainian reserves, including foreign mercenaries, are reportedly being transferred to the region.
  • Russian forces report reaching Kurylivka, south of Sudzha.

• Krasnolimansky Direction:

  • Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny.
  • A buildup of Russian forces is noted on the newly formed bridgehead in Ivanovka on the right bank of the Zherebets River.
  • Russian forces report storming Ukrainian positions near Terny.

• Belgorod Region:

  • Two civilians were injured in a drone attack on a vehicle.
  • Partial power outages were reported in Shebekino due to shelling.

• Donetsk People's Republic (DPR):

  • Four civilians were injured in Panteleimonovka (Yasynuvata district) due to shelling.
  • A radio operator of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations was injured in Horlivka.

• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces report new positions in the northern part of the city, advancing up to 1.5 km.

• Dzerzhynsk: Russian forces report advancing towards waste heap No. 10.

• Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka: Russian forces report active combat operations with motorized rifle units, including an assault towards Novoaleksandrivka.

Ukrainian Actions

• Drone Attacks on Russia:

  • 13 drones were destroyed over Voronezh, Bryansk, Rostov, Kaluga, and Kursk Oblasts.
  • Two additional Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast.
  • A drone was shot down in Orlov Oblast during the day.
  • Reports of a drone being rammed by a Russian drone over Pokrovsk.

• Drone Attacks on Ukraine:

  • Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 47 out of 72 drones, 24 drones that failed to reach their targets, and one drone still airborne.
  • 5 Russian drones were shot down over Sumy Oblast.
  • 5 Russian drones were shot down over Cherkasy Oblast.
  • New reports of drone threats in Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts.
  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the east and north-east, with a threat of air strikes in the frontline regions.
  • Ukrainian air defense forces report shooting down two "Shahed" drones in the Sumy region.

• Black Sea:

  • One Russian missile carrier is present in the Black Sea, but without Kalibr missiles. No enemy ships are observed in the Azov Sea.

• Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

  • A Russian attack using 11 guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeted a five-story building, causing its destruction and resulting in one death.

• Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

  • Overnight, Russian artillery shelling targeted Nikopol, but no casualties were reported.

• Kryvyi Rih District:

  • No shelling was reported in the Kryvyi Rih district overnight.

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

  • One person was reported killed due to a Russian attack in the Vasylivka district.
  • 361 attacks reported on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

• Kharkiv Oblast:

  • Balakliya and Izyum are being prepared for all-around defense.
  • Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on Turove, Stohnii, Kovali, Zavodske, Petrivka, and Udy.
  • A car was damaged by a drone attack in Kupyansk.
  • Civilian infrastructure was damaged in Kozacha Lopan.

Losses

• Ukrainian Losses (Past 24 Hours):

  • 1,370 personnel
  • 20 artillery systems
  • 54 vehicles
  • 69 UAVs
  • 4 tanks
  • 13 armored personnel vehicles
  • The chief of staff of the Western Operational Command, Colonel Alexander Seletsky, was reportedly killed.

• Russian Losses:

  • Reports of significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army.
  • Ukrainian forces report confirmed losses of 44 enemy personnel, 11 artillery pieces, 14 armored vehicles, 7 attack UAVs, 4 reconnaissance UAVs, 3 boats, 1 quad bike, 2 Starlink terminals, 3 EW complexes, 4 generators, 4 communication antennas, 7 UAV control antennas, 6 dugouts/shelters, 3 firing positions, and 1 logistics storage site.

Other Significant Developments

• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Foreign equipment installed during the Ukrainian period at the ZNPP will be replaced with Russian equipment.

• New Russian Legislation: Fines ranging from 2,000 to 500,000 rubles will be imposed from February 5 on those providing services to foreigners on the list of controlled persons. Starting March 5, police in Russia will have the right to freely enter the homes of migrants.

• Transnistria: Due to Ukraine cutting off Russian gas supplies to Europe and Moldova's decision to sever relations with Gazprom, Transnistria is cut off from gas supplies. This has caused a reaction from the Russian army.

• Occupied Territories: Starting January 1, 2025, Ukrainians in occupied territories who have not obtained a Russian passport will be deprived of their rights, including access to subsidized medicines.

• Belgorod Region, Russia: Cellular communication stations will be installed in 2025 in settlements where there has never been any communication.

• Russian Military-Medical Academy: The deputy head of the Kirov Military Medical Academy, Pavel Veshkin, has been charged with large-scale bribery.

• Air Defenses in Sumy Oblast: Five Russian drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces in Sumy Oblast.

• Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out over 1,500 high-precision and drone strikes in 2024.

• Escalation in Belgorod: The injury of two civilians due to a drone attack and power outages in Shebekino indicates an escalation of conflict in the Belgorod region.

• Casualties in DPR: The injury of four civilians in Panteleimonovka and a radio operator in Horlivka highlights the continued impact of the conflict on the civilian population in the Donetsk People's Republic.

• Fundraising for Drones: The message from "Colonelcassad" requesting funds for drones for troops assaulting Toretsk emphasizes the ongoing need for equipment and support for Russian forces.

• US Department of the Treasury: The US Department of the Treasury's office responsible for sanctions and its head, Janet Yellen, were reportedly hacked by hackers associated with the PRC.

• Ukrainian Military Successes: The Ukrainian Armed Forces report the destruction of 1,370 Russian troops, 20 artillery systems, 54 vehicles, and 69 drones in the past 24 hours.

• Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: Five Russian drones were reportedly shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces in Sumy Oblast.

• Drone Activity in Cherkasy Oblast: Five Russian drones were reportedly shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces in Cherkasy Oblast overnight.

• Mass Shootings in the US: Multiple reports of mass shootings in the US, including incidents in New York and Las Vegas, with a total of at least 32 people injured and 12 killed. One of the incidents involved the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck near the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas. While the police are considering the possibility of a terrorist attack, they have also noted that the explosion may have been caused by pyrotechnics detonating inside the vehicle. The FBI believes the explosion was an isolated incident.

• Corruption in Russian Military: The deputy head of the Kirov Military Medical Academy, Pavel Veshkin, has been charged with large-scale bribery. He is accused of receiving money from the company "SL Pharma" in exchange for contracts related to medical equipment. The case also involves other military and civilian individuals.

• Political Developments in the US: Donald Trump has made numerous campaign promises, including ending the conflict in Ukraine, closing the borders, and implementing various domestic policy changes. However, he has already acknowledged that resolving the conflict in Ukraine may be more difficult than he initially claimed.

• EU-Hungary Relations: The EU's decision to withhold funds from Hungary adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to press their offensive, achieving significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk). Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions. The new reports of drone threats in Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts, along with the confirmation of 47 out of 72 drones shot down, 24 drones that failed to reach their targets, and one drone still airborne, over multiple regions, indicate a continued and potentially expanding aerial threat. The humanitarian situation is worsening, with reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, including the destruction of a five-story building in Stepnohirsk by 11 Russian guided aerial bombs. The overall situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and potential for further escalation. The significant losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, if accurate, indicate a high level of attrition and suggest a conflict that is far from over. The developments in Russia's internal policies, the situation in Transnistria and the EU's decision to withhold funds from Hungary add complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The multiple reports of mass shootings in the US, including the explosion near the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas, highlight a concerning trend of violence, but do not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast by Russian tactical aviation. The advance of Russian troops in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) and the capture of key positions indicate a significant shift in the balance of power in the region. The reported encirclement strategy in Pokrovsk suggests a calculated approach to avoid direct urban warfare while still achieving strategic objectives. The continued and potentially expanding aerial threat, as indicated by drone activity and guided aerial bomb launches, highlights the importance of air defense and the need for Ukraine to counter these threats effectively. The new information regarding Russian advances in the Mezheve (Krasnoarmiisk, left flank) direction and Lysychansk-Belohorivka area further emphasizes the pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The destruction of a Ukrainian radar station by Russian forces demonstrates the ongoing battle for technological superiority and the importance of disabling enemy detection systems. The fundraising campaign for the Ukrainian MANTICORA battalion underscores the critical role of drones in the conflict and the need for resources to maintain this capability.

Changes brought by the new messages:

• Confirmation of 47 out of 72 drones shot down, 24 drones that failed to reach their targets, and one drone still airborne.
• Reports of two "Shahed" drones being shot down by the 35th Sumy Regiment of the National Guard.
• Destruction of a Ukrainian radar station AN/TPQ-36 by Russian forces.
• A Russian drone attack on Ukrainian positions using FPV drones resulted in five casualties.
• Ukrainian forces released a compilation video highlighting their successful drone operations, destroying Russian equipment and personnel, specifically targeting an antenna complex and a "Bukhmobile".
• The EU's decision to withhold funds from Hungary adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.
• Positional fighting is reported in the Lysychansk-Belohorivka area, with Russian forces advancing approximately 800 meters.
• The Ukrainian MANTICORA battalion is fundraising for drones, Starlink systems, and other equipment.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Donetsk region.
• Four Ukrainian servicemen from the 44th Brigade are accused of committing terrorist acts in the Kursk region.

Previous Report (2025-01-02 08:20:06Z)