Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 2, 2025, 05:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, with significant advances near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction. The capture of Vozdvyzhenka has opened a direct route to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces are strategically withdrawing to consolidate defenses, particularly towards the Dnipro River in some areas, focusing on the areas around Novooleksandrivka, Novoselivka Persha, and Sokil. Intense fighting is reported in Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with extensive use by both sides. Russia reportedly destroyed 13 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions, while also losing 69 drones in the last day. Ukrainian forces report destroying 20 Russian artillery systems and 54 vehicles in the last 24 hours. A new ballistic missile threat has emerged, impacting Kyiv, Shostka, Odesa, and Chornomorsk.

Key Developments

Russian Military Actions and Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Confirmed capture of Vozdvyzhenka, 20 km east of Pokrovsk, with a direct route now open to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway (4 km to the north).
  • Heavy fighting in Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk, with active assault operations.
  • Russian forces are advancing west of Uspenovka.
  • They are expanding the control zone northwest of Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud in the DPR.
  • Russian forces liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and advancing on Yantarnoye, destroying a bridge over the Volchya River in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces liberated an additional 5 sq km, advancing south of Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces captured Novyi Komar and Novopustynka in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces liberated Makarivka on December 16th and control gained over the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces liberated Uspenovka and Ukrainian forces withdrew from the "Uspenivka pocket."
  • Russian forces liberated Neskuchne in DPR.
  • Russian forces liberated more than 5 square kilometers of the territory of the DPR and advancing from the settlement of Zarya towards Yasenev in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces have taken control of Novoolenivka, Donetsk People's Republic.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
  • Ukrainian reserves, including foreign mercenaries, are reportedly being transferred to the region.
• Krasnolimansky Direction:
  • Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny.
  • A buildup of Russian forces is noted on the newly formed bridgehead in Ivanovka on the right bank of the Zherebets River.
• Belgorod Region:
  • Two civilians were injured in a drone attack on a vehicle.
  • Partial power outages were reported in Shebekino due to shelling.
• Donetsk People's Republic (DPR):
  • Four civilians were injured in Panteleimonovka (Yasynuvata district) due to shelling by multiple rocket launchers and artillery.
  • A radio operator of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations was injured in Horlivka by 155-mm artillery fire.

Ukrainian Actions

• Drone Attacks on Russia:
  • Overnight, 13 drones were destroyed over Voronezh, Bryansk, Rostov, Kaluga and Kursk Oblasts.
  • Two additional Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, with no reported casualties or damage.
  • A drone was shot down in Orlov Oblast during the day.
  • Reports of a drone being rammed by a Russian drone over Pokrovsk.
• Black Sea:
  • One Russian missile carrier is present in the Black Sea, but without Kalibr missiles. No enemy ships are observed in the Azov Sea.
• Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
  • A Russian attack using 11 guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeted a five-story building, causing its destruction and resulting in one death.

Losses

• Ukrainian Losses (Past 24 Hours):
  • 1,370 personnel
  • 20 artillery systems
  • 54 vehicles
  • 69 UAVs
  • 4 tanks
  • 13 armored personnel vehicles
• Russian Losses:
  • Reports of significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army.

Other Significant Developments

• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP):
  • Foreign equipment installed during the Ukrainian period at the ZNPP will be replaced with Russian equipment. The ZNPP, after the launch of all power units, will be able to provide energy to Novorossiya, Crimea, and Donbas.
• New Russian Legislation:
  • Fines ranging from 2,000 to 500,000 rubles will be imposed from February 5 on those providing services to foreigners on the list of controlled persons.
  • Starting March 5, police in Russia will have the right to freely enter the homes of migrants.
• Transnistria:
  • Due to Ukraine cutting off Russian gas supplies to Europe and Moldova's decision to sever relations with Gazprom, Transnistria is cut off from gas supplies. Russian forces are now minimizing the use of previously accumulated gas and coal reserves and are cutting down forests for fuel.
• Occupied Territories:
  • Starting January 1, 2025, Ukrainians in occupied territories who have not obtained a Russian passport will be deprived of their rights, including access to subsidized medicines.
• Belgorod Region, Russia: Cellular communication stations will be installed in 2025 in settlements where there has never been any communication, providing access to approximately 7,000 people.
• Russian Military-Medical Academy: The deputy head of the Kirov Military Medical Academy, Pavel Veshkin, has been charged with large-scale bribery.

Changes in the Situation Based on New Messages

• Continued Russian Advances: Confirmation of Russian progress in the Kursk region and the capture of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk reinforce the ongoing Russian offensive. The focus on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway highlights its strategic importance.
• Intensified Drone Warfare: Reports of 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight across five regions of Russia, along with continued drone activity in the Donetsk region, underscore the persistent and widespread use of drones by both sides.
• Humanitarian Concerns: The attack on Stepnohirsk using 11 guided aerial bombs, resulting in the destruction of a residential building and one death, raises significant humanitarian concerns and highlights the impact of the conflict on civilians.
• Logistical and Communication Developments: The plan to install cellular communication stations in the Belgorod region suggests efforts to improve infrastructure and communication in areas affected by the conflict.
• Internal Russian Issues: The charges against the deputy head of the Kirov Military Medical Academy for bribery indicate potential internal issues within the Russian military apparatus.
• Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out over 1,500 high-precision and drone strikes in 2024.
• Escalation in Belgorod: The injury of two civilians due to a drone attack and power outages in Shebekino indicates an escalation of conflict in the Belgorod region.
• Casualties in DPR: The injury of four civilians in Panteleimonovka and a radio operator in Horlivka highlights the continued impact of the conflict on the civilian population in the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Fundraising for Drones: The message from "Colonelcassad" requesting funds for drones for troops assaulting Toretsk emphasizes the ongoing need for equipment and support for Russian forces. It also highlights the role of social media in mobilizing support and resources for the war effort.

These updates paint a picture of a complex and evolving conflict with continued Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, ongoing drone warfare, and significant humanitarian concerns. The developments in the Belgorod region, the impact on civilians in the DPR, and the internal issues within the Russian military add further layers of complexity to the situation. The fundraising campaign for drones underscores the importance of equipment and resources in the ongoing fighting. The overall situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and potential for further escalation. The significant losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, if accurate, indicate a high level of attrition and suggest a conflict that is far from over. The developments in Russia's internal policies and the situation in Germany, while not directly related to the conflict, provide a broader context of the geopolitical and social dynamics at play.

Previous Report (2025-01-02 04:48:48Z)