Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 2, 2025, 04:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, with significant advances near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction. They have established a bridgehead near Lyman, exerting pressure towards Ivanivka. Ukrainian forces are strategically withdrawing to consolidate defenses, particularly towards the Dnipro River in some areas, focusing on the areas around Novooleksandrivka, Novoselivka Persha, and Sokil. Drone warfare remains a critical component of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks, including a notable incident of a Ukrainian drone being rammed by a Russian drone over Pokrovsk. A new ballistic missile threat has emerged, impacting Kyiv, Shostka, Odesa, and Chornomorsk. The situation is further complicated by reports of Russian forces using guided air bombs in the Donetsk region and their plans to replace foreign equipment at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with Russian-made equipment.

Key Developments

Intensified Drone Activity

• Current Drone Movements:
  • One drone is observed in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course.
• Overnight Drone Attacks:
  • Thirteen drones were destroyed over five regions of the Russian Federation during the night.
  • Two Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, with no reported casualties or damage.

Russian Military Actions and Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • The capture of Vozdvyzhenka (20 km east of Pokrovsk) has been confirmed, opening a direct route to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, with 4 km remaining to the north.
  • Heavy fighting is reported in Novovasylivka (10 km southwest of Pokrovsk), with active assault operations.
  • Russian forces are advancing west of Uspenovka.
  • They are expanding the control zone northwest of Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud in the DPR.
  • Russian forces liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and advancing on Yantarnoye, destroying a bridge over the Volchya River in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces liberated an additional 5 sq km, advancing south of Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces captured Novyi Komar and Novopustynka in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces liberated Makarivka on December 16th and control gained over the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces liberated Uspenovka and Ukrainian forces withdrew from the "Uspenivka pocket."
  • Russian forces liberated Neskuchne in DPR.
  • Russian forces liberated more than 5 square kilometers of the territory of the DPR and advancing from the settlement of Zarya towards Yasenev in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces have taken control of Novoolenivka, Donetsk People's Republic.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
  • Ukrainian reserves, including foreign mercenaries, are reportedly being transferred to the region.
• Krasnolimansky Direction:
  • Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny.
  • A buildup of Russian forces is noted on the newly formed bridgehead in Ivanovka on the right bank of the Zherebets River.
• Belgorod Region:
  • Two civilians were injured in a drone attack on a vehicle.
  • Partial power outages were reported in Shebekino due to shelling.
• Donetsk People's Republic (DPR):
  • Four civilians were injured in Panteleimonovka (Yasynuvata district) due to shelling by multiple rocket launchers and artillery.
  • A radio operator of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations was injured in Horlivka by 155-mm artillery fire.

Ukrainian Actions

• Drone Attacks on Russia:
  • Overnight, drones were destroyed over Voronezh, Bryansk, and Rostov Oblasts.
  • A drone was shot down in Orlov Oblast during the day.
• Black Sea:
  • One Russian missile carrier is present in the Black Sea, but without Kalibr missiles. No enemy ships are observed in the Azov Sea.

Other Significant Developments

• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP):
  • Foreign equipment installed during the Ukrainian period at the ZNPP will be replaced with Russian equipment.
• New Russian Legislation:
  • Fines ranging from 2,000 to 500,000 rubles will be imposed from February 5 on those providing services to foreigners on the list of controlled persons.
  • Starting March 5, police in Russia will have the right to freely enter the homes of migrants.
• Transnistria:
  • Due to Ukraine cutting off Russian gas supplies to Europe and Moldova's decision to sever relations with Gazprom, Transnistria is cut off from gas supplies. Russian forces are now minimizing the use of previously accumulated gas and coal reserves and are cutting down forests for fuel.
• Flight Restrictions:
  • Temporary restrictions on civilian aircraft flights have been lifted.
• Lottery Winner:
  • A resident of Sakhalin Oblast won 1 billion rubles in the lottery, the fourth lottery billionaire in Russia.
• Occupied Territories:
  • Starting January 1, 2025, Ukrainians in occupied territories who have not obtained a Russian passport will be deprived of their rights, including access to subsidized medicines.

Changes in the Situation Based on New Messages

• Continued Drone Warfare: The destruction of two Ukrainian drones over Bryansk Oblast and the report of 13 drones destroyed over five regions of Russia overnight highlight the ongoing and widespread use of drones in the conflict. The presence of a Russian missile carrier in the Black Sea, albeit without Kalibr missiles, indicates continued naval activity.
• Russian Advances in Donetsk: The confirmation of the capture of Vozdvyzhenka and the ongoing assault on Novovasylivka further solidify Russian gains in the Pokrovsk direction, posing a significant threat to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
• Escalation in Kursk: Reports of Russian advances in the Sudzhansky district and the planned transfer of Ukrainian reserves, including foreign mercenaries, to the region suggest an intensification of the conflict in this area.
• New Russian Legislation and Control Measures: The new laws regarding foreigners and migrants in Russia, along with the deprivation of rights for Ukrainians without Russian passports in occupied territories, indicate a tightening of control and potential escalation of social and political pressure.
• Energy Crisis in Transnistria: The situation in Transnistria, with Russian forces resorting to cutting down forests for fuel due to the cutoff of gas supplies, highlights the broader impact of the conflict on energy security and the potential for humanitarian consequences.
• Replacement of Equipment at ZNPP: The plan to replace foreign equipment at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with Russian equipment signifies a further step towards integrating the plant into the Russian system, potentially complicating future negotiations and safety protocols.

These updates indicate a complex and evolving situation with continued military offensives, particularly by Russian forces in the Donetsk region, ongoing drone warfare, and significant developments in Russian legislation and control measures. The energy crisis in Transnistria and the changes at the ZNPP add further layers of complexity to the conflict. The overall situation remains highly volatile and intense, with potential for further escalation and humanitarian consequences.

Previous Report (2025-01-02 03:17:55Z)