Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 2, 2025, 01:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, with significant advances near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction. They have established a bridgehead near Lyman, exerting pressure towards Ivanivka. Ukrainian forces are strategically withdrawing to consolidate defenses, particularly towards the Dnipro River in some areas, focusing on the areas around Novooleksandrivka, Novoselivka Persha, and Sokil. Drone warfare remains a critical component of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. A new ballistic missile threat has emerged, impacting Kyiv, Shostka, Odesa, and Chornomorsk.

Key Developments

Continued Intense Drone Activity

• 1 drone is approaching Bashtanka.
• 1 drone is moving from Kosa towards Rybakivka.
• 1 drone is north of Cherkasy, moving south.
• 1 drone is southeast of Cherkasy, circling.
• 1 drone is moving towards/through Kremenchuk.
• 4 drones are in the Poltava area.
• 2 drones are moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
• 1 drone is in the Pryluky area.
• 2 drones are in the east of Chernihiv Oblast, moving towards Nizhyn.
• 3 drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
• 7 drones are in the Lozova area of Kharkiv Oblast, moving south.
• 1 drone is moving towards/through Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast.
• 7 drones are moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
• 2 drones are over Shostka, moving west.
• 1 drone is in the north of Chernihiv Oblast.
• 5 drones are west of Balakliia, moving west.
• Enemy drones are in Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast), approaching from the northeast.
• Drones are in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/southwest.
• Drones are in the north, center, and south of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest.
• Drones are in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, moving southwest.
• Drones are in the north and center of Chernihiv Oblast, moving west/southwest.
• New enemy drones are present in the east and north of Sumy region, moving south/southwest.
• Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
• Several villages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
• Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
• Air defense activity reported in Kyiv Oblast due to the movement of hostile drones.
• Enemy drone reported near Poltava from the east.
• Updates on the movement of enemy drones:
  • Drones in the east and south of Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/southwest/southeast.
  • Drones in the center and south of Sumy Oblast, moving southeast.
  • Drones in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving southwest.
  • Drones in the north and south of Chernihiv Oblast, moving west/southwest.
  • Drones in the east of Cherkasy Oblast, moving northwest.
  • Drones in the northeast of Kherson Oblast, moving northwest.
  • Enemy drone reported near Poltava from the north. Residents urged to remain in shelters.
• Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Ochakiv.
• Kirovohrad Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks from the northeast and south.
• Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) is under threat from drones approaching from the northeast.
• Updates on the movement of enemy drones:
  • Drones are in the east, south, and southwest of Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/southwest/southeast.
  • Drones are in the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving south.
  • Drones are in the center and south of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest.
  • Drones are in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving southwest.
  • Drones are in the northeast and center of Chernihiv Oblast, moving west/southwest.
  • Drones are in the northeast and southwest of Mykolaiv Oblast, moving northwest.
• 2 drones in the Voznesensk area, moving northwest.
• 2 drones in the Nizhyn area.
• 5 drones moving towards/through Pryluky, moving west.
• 1 drone north of Chernihiv.
• 4 drones in the Poltava area.
• 5 drones from Kharkiv Oblast moving into Poltava Oblast.
• 5 drones in the Pershotravneve area, moving west.
• 1 drone is approaching Samara.
• 1 drone is north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west.
• Dnipro is under threat from a drone approaching from the southeast.
• 1 drone has left Mykolaiv Oblast in the direction of Vinnytsia.
• 5 drones are at the intersection of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, moving west.
• 1 drone is north of Kamianka, moving northwest.
• 5 drones from Kharkiv Oblast have moved into Poltava Oblast, flying south of Poltava in a western direction.
• 1 drone is north of Poltava, moving west.
• 1 drone is east of Chernihiv, moving southwest.
• 1 drone is moving towards/through Pryluky.
• Vinnytsia Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks from the south.
• 1 drone is flying towards Vyshhorod
• Air raid alerts in Kyiv
• An enemy drone is heading towards Kyiv from the northeast

Russian Military Actions and Advances

• South of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk): Russian forces advanced towards Udachne and the highway to Krasnoarmiisk.
• Increased Activity of Russian Tactical Aviation: Activity is reported in the northeastern direction, with a threat of the use of air-delivered ordnance in the frontline regions. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft have been reported in Sumy Oblast and on Kupiansk.
• Guided air bombs used on Donetsk region.

Ukrainian Actions

• Drone Attacks on Russia: The "Carpet" plan was implemented at Kazan airport due to a drone threat, and Russian air defense activity was reported near Bryansk. A Ukrainian drone was reportedly detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported. Another Ukrainian drone was reportedly detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast.

Other Significant Developments

• Interview with Ex-British Army Soldier: An interview with ex-British Army soldier Hayden William Davis, fighting for the International Legion in Ukraine, reveals disillusionment due to lack of training, equipment, and alleged orders to commit war crimes.
• Testimony from a Belgorod Hospital Volunteer: A volunteer visiting a hospital in Belgorod reported a shocking number of severely injured soldiers, with up to 1,000 new arrivals daily.
• Terrorist Attacks in the US: The death toll from the terrorist attack in New Orleans has risen to 15, with over 60 injured. The attack is recognized as an act of terrorism, and the perpetrator, who was killed, was found to be associated with ISIS. Four individuals have been arrested in connection with the attack. There are reports that the tragedies in New Orleans and Las Vegas might be connected, as the cars in both cases were rented through the same service.
• Elon Musk's Statements: Elon Musk confirmed that the Cybertruck explosion was caused by "very large fireworks or a bomb" in the rented vehicle and was not related to the vehicle itself. Musk stated that he had never seen anything like this with Cybertruck vehicles and promised to conduct an investigation.
• Shooting in Montenegro: The individual responsible for shooting 10 people in Montenegro has died after attempting suicide, according to the country's Interior Minister.

Other Recent Developments

• Renewed attack on Lgov with 8 Storm Shadow missiles.
• Drone Attacks in North Ossetia.
• New Drone Attacks in Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
• Subway Shelter Usage in Kyiv.
• Russian Naval Successes.
• New Year's Greetings from Russian Celebrities.
• New Fundraising Campaign.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Forces.
• Arrest Warrant for Former South Korean President.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted across Ukraine.
• Drone Attack on Bryansk Oblast.
• New Year's Greetings from the Police of Khabarovsk Krai.
• New Advertisement for a Mobile Game.
• New Russian Missile and Drone Attacks.
• Praise for Russian General.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted in Kyiv.
• Propaganda Efforts.
• Report of non-public part of negotiations between Ukrainian delegation and Damascus.
• Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone.
• Report of Russian forces being attacked by soldiers from the Foreign Legion under Pokrovsk.
• Three Russian soldiers were released from hospitals.
• Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration.
• Report on the downing of a Russian helicopter by a Ukrainian drone.
• Southwest of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): Reports of Russian successes in the village of Solenoye.
• Use of Fireworks and Impact on Veterans.
• Opening of Transport Interchange in Grozny.
• EU Funding to Hungary.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian and Russian Leaders.
• Delivery of New Tanks to Russian Forces.
• Oil Spill in Anapa.
• Alleged Ukrainian Drone Strike Near Presidential Office.
• Ukrainian Military Awards in Kursk Direction.
• Symbolic Messaging and Propaganda.
• Military Situation Maps.
• Damage to Civilian Infrastructure.
• Alleged Use of Old Footage by Ukraine.
• Air Activity Over Russia.
• Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Military Engagements.
• Russian Losses.
• Explosions and Drone Attacks.
• SpaceX and Starlink.
• Potential Assault in Kherson Region.
• Russian Military Training.
• Fundraising Campaigns.
• HIMARS Strike in Kherson Oblast.
• No Lump-Sum Payments for Contracted Prisoners.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia.
• Sabotage in Tver.
• Map Updates.
• Game Advertisement.
• Russian Soldier's Video.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant.
• Ukrainian Reactions to Zelensky.
• Casualty Reports.
• Russian MoD Summary.
• Territorial Control.
• Ukrainian Military Videos.
• Shelter in Zaporizhzhia.
• US Ambassador's Statement.
• Frontline Greetings for Aid Workers.
• Ukrainian Drone Attacks.
• Fundraising for Drones.
• Airspace Control Efforts.
• Moldova's demands for gas supplies from Russia.
• Terrorist attack in New Orleans.
• Explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck near a Trump hotel in Las Vegas.
• Montenegro authorities to discuss a complete ban on gun ownership.
• Shooting in Cetinje, Montenegro.
• Death of Former State Duma Deputy Viktor Alksnis
• Russian New Year's celebration at a facility likely affiliated with the Russian Strategic Missile Forces
• Video evidence showcases a coordinated military operation involving the targeting of critical communication assets.
• The drone light show video demonstrates technology with clear potential military applications
• The drone light show video showcases a nation's advanced technological capacity in drone operation
• The drone light show video showcases a nation's advanced technological capacity in drone operation

Situation 6 Hours - 3 Days Ago

The provided information details military situations from three different times: December 30, 2024, 12:17 UTC, December 30, 2024, 13:17 UTC, and December 31, 2024, 04:17 UTC. Each time frame presents a strategic overview and key developments, primarily focusing on the conflict between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Here's a consolidated summary of the situations:

Strategic Overviews

• December 30, 2024, 12:17 UTC: The situation was highly volatile with intense fighting in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces made substantial advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction, leveraging drone warfare. Ukrainian forces were engaged in a fighting withdrawal towards the Dnipro River, employing counter-drone measures.
• December 30, 2024, 13:17 UTC: Russian forces continued their offensive in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, making significant advances in the same areas as before. They controlled the railway station in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces were withdrawing towards the Dnipro River in some areas, using counter-drone measures.
• December 31, 2024, 04:17 UTC: Intense fighting continued, with significant Russian gains in the Donetsk region. Drone warfare was central, with new reports of drone activity in various oblasts. Ukrainian forces faced challenges but continued to resist, reporting advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna.

Key Developments Across the Time Frames

• Russian Advances: Russian forces liberated Novotroitske (DPR), were fighting in Chasiv Yar (controlling over half the city and the railway station), and took control of a garage cooperative in Kurakhove. They advanced in the western part of Kurakhove near the thermal power plant. In the Kursk region, they secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the Sudzhansky district.
• Ukrainian Actions: Ukrainian forces were withdrawn to the main defense line near the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. They redeployed reinforcements to the Kursk area and conducted various drone strike operations.
• Drone Warfare: Extensive use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Russia integrated AI into Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces innovated with shotgun-mounted drones and reported a 19-fold increase in drone supply in 2024.
• International Involvement: Slovak Minister of Defense suggested Ukraine might have to cede territory to Russia. The US announced a $15 billion aid package to Ukraine. Reports of North Korean troops fighting on the Russian side in the Kursk region. Latvia planned to transfer 1000 drones to Ukraine.
• Other Significant Events: Ukrainian Air Force reported Russian attacks with drones, some of which were shot down. The Pentagon was in the process of transferring artillery shells and rockets to Ukraine. Reports of atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces and various drone attacks and military engagements.

Summary of the Military Situation

• Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, leveraging drone warfare and achieving strategic gains around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar.
• Ukrainian forces are engaged in strategic withdrawals, reinforcing defenses, and employing counter-drone measures. They report some advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna.
• Drone warfare is a critical element, with both sides extensively using drones. Russia has reportedly integrated AI into its drones, while Ukraine is innovating and increasing its drone supply.
• International involvement includes financial and military aid to Ukraine from the US and plans by Latvia to transfer drones. There are also reports of North Korean troops fighting on the Russian side.
• The situation is highly volatile, with ongoing intense fighting, strategic movements, and significant developments in drone warfare and international support.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, with reports of heavy Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction and the capture of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses while also reporting advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions, including near Kyiv, Poltava, and now Kirovohrad. Russian forces are actively using drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower, and there are reports of Ukrainian drones successfully targeting Russian helicopters.

A new and significant development is the emergence of a ballistic missile threat, particularly targeting Kyiv and Shostka. Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, and strikes have been reported in Shostka. The threat of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk adds complexity to the situation. The recent attack on Lgov using Storm Shadow missiles highlights Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities and their potential impact on Russian military assets within Russia itself. The reported casualties and damage underscore the effectiveness of these Western-supplied weapons.

The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine. The US has announced a significant aid package, and the appointment of a new Ukrainian military ombudsman signals a focus on the rights and well-being of servicemen. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging. The reported Russian plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, although based on older documents, add a new dimension to the conflict's potential expansion. The Ukrainian delegation's visit to Damascus and the reported interest in acquiring jihadists and weapons from Syria introduce a new and potentially controversial element to the conflict. The potential involvement of Chechen fighters on the Ukrainian side could further escalate the conflict and introduce new dynamics. The interview with the ex-British soldier highlights significant issues within the International Legion fighting for Ukraine, including lack of training, equipment, and alleged war crimes.

Recruitment efforts in Ukraine are ongoing, with over 32,000 applications to recruitment centers. The reported Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction highlight the intensity of the fighting and the need for continued recruitment and reinforcement. The fundraising campaign for Ukrainian paratroopers underscores the ongoing need for resources and equipment, particularly drones, which have proven to be crucial in the conflict.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks. The new ballistic missile threat, coupled with the continued drone warfare and ground offensives, indicates a complex and dangerous phase in the conflict. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with ongoing discussions about further support for Ukraine and potential responses to Russian aggression. The terrorist attacks in the US and the shooting in Montenegro, while not directly related to the conflict, add to the global climate of instability and uncertainty.

Changes in the Situation Based on New Messages

The new messages add the following updates to the situation:

• Guided air bombs were used on the Donetsk region.
• One drone is flying towards Vyshhorod.
• Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv.
• An enemy drone is heading towards Kyiv from the northeast.
• Elon Musk suggests the Cybertruck explosion near Trump Las Vegas could be a terrorist attack, possibly connected to a similar incident in New Orleans. Both vehicles were rented through Turo.
• Hungary has lost €1 billion in EU funding due to rule of law violations.
• The terrorist attack in New Orleans was reportedly carried out by a US Army veteran allegedly inspired by ISIS, and it may be connected to the attack near Trump Tower in Las Vegas.
• The Las Vegas police sheriff stated there is no connection between the Cybertruck explosion and ISIS.

These updates suggest an escalation in aerial attacks, particularly with the use of guided air bombs in the Donetsk region and the drone threat to Kyiv. The potential connection between the terrorist attacks in the US and their possible link to a US Army veteran raise concerns about domestic terrorism and its potential impact on international events. The EU's action against Hungary adds another layer to the geopolitical tensions surrounding the conflict.

Previous Report (2025-01-02 01:20:27Z)