Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine

Hospitalization of Pro-Russian Blogger: Kirill Fedorov, a prominent pro-Russian blogger, has been hospitalized with bilateral pneumonia. This may temporarily impact the flow of information from his channel.

Continued Russian Offensives in Donetsk: Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses.

Emergence of Ballistic Missile Threat: A new and significant development is the emergence of a ballistic missile threat, particularly targeting Kyiv, Shostka, and now Odesa and Chornomorsk. Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, and strikes have been reported in Shostka.

Drone Warfare Continues: Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions, including near Kyiv and Poltava. Ukrainian drone production has reportedly reached 96% of the front's needs, with over 1.2 million drones procured through the "Army of Drones" project.

Strategic Overview from December 31, 2024: The military situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction, leveraging their advantage in drone warfare.

Russian Advances and Control: Russian forces have reportedly liberated Novotroitske (DPR) and are advancing in Chasiv Yar and Dzerzhinsk. They have also taken control of a garage cooperative in Kurakhove and the Kurakhove thermal power plant. In the Kursk region, they have secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the wooded areas of the Sudzhansky district.

Drone Warfare Developments: Extensive and increasingly sophisticated use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Russia is confirmed to be integrating AI into Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces are innovating with shotgun-mounted drones and report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024.

New Messages (January 1, 2025):

• Air Activity: Reports of continued air activity with the take-off of a MiG-31K and the launch of X-22 missiles. A high-speed target was reported in the northern part of Chernihiv Oblast, and multiple missiles targeted Shostka.
• Air Activity Over Russia: Russian forces launched six Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and X-22 missiles.
• Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: An enemy drone caused a fire in a residential building in Vidrodzhenivske, Bohodukhiv district. A 51-year-old woman was killed by artillery shelling in Kivsharivka, Kupiansk district.
• Military Engagements: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 168 combat clashes over the past day, with Ukrainian forces striking four areas of enemy concentration, an ammunition depot, and six other important enemy targets.
• Russian Losses: Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment.
• Explosions and Drone Attacks: Explosions were reported in Kyiv, with debris falling in the Darnytskyi district. Drone attacks were reported in Smolensk Oblast and Sevastopol. A drone was reportedly shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar.
• Potential Assault in Kherson Region: Reports suggest that Russian forces are preparing for an assault in the Kherson region.
• Russian Military Training: The Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
• Fundraising Campaigns: Several fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing.
• Public Opinion Poll: A poll indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in Ukraine, with over 70% of respondents having relatives who have fought or are fighting in the war.
• Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske and reportedly advanced 900 meters south of Vyimka.
• HIMARS Strike in Kherson Oblast: Reports of a Russian missile strike targeting HIMARS launchers in Kherson Oblast.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea.
• Ukrainian Military Losses in Kurakhove Direction: Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
• No Lump-Sum Payments for Contracted Prisoners: A new decree from the Russian government denies lump-sum payments to prisoners who sign contracts to join the military.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024.
• Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus, reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists and weapons.
• Sabotage in Tver: The Legion "Freedom of Russia" claimed responsibility for setting fire to a communication tower in Tver.
• Map Updates: Several changes to the map were reported, including Russian advances in various locations.
• Renewed attack on Lgov with 8 Storm Shadow missiles: The attack suggests the use of Western long-range precision weapons against targets in Russia.
• Continued Air Activity Over Russia: Reports that 8 TU-22M3 bombers (4 from Olenya and 4 from Engels) were active.
• Attacks on Infrastructure in Shostka: Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
• Air Defense Activity in Kyiv: Reports that air defense systems were active in Kyiv, with a combination of Iskander and 6 guided air missiles being used.
• Drone Attacks in North Ossetia: Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• Subway Shelter Usage: Images from Kyiv's subway system show civilians using it as a shelter during air raids.
• Public Opinion Poll: A poll by the "Rating" group indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in Ukraine, with over 70% of respondents having relatives who have fought or are fighting in the war. The poll also shows a high level of distrust towards employees of the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC).
• Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Reports from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske, with the goal of expanding control towards a field reservoir east of Seversk. Ukrainian forces also reportedly advanced 900 meters south of Vyimka after clearing a forest belt.
• Russian Naval Successes: The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024, with over 350 exercises conducted. The report also mentions the participation of Russian ships in joint naval exercises with foreign countries and a seven-month deployment of a ship detachment to the Mediterranean Sea.
• HIMARS Strike in Kherson Oblast: Reports of a Russian missile strike targeting HIMARS launchers in Kherson Oblast.
• New Year's Greetings from Russian Celebrities: A video message from the rector of the Vaganova Academy of Russian Ballet, Nikolai Tsiskaridze, wishing readers of TASS a happy new year.
• New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for a special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, requesting quadcopters, their components, and personal protective equipment.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Forces: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
• Arrest Warrant for Former South Korean President: Reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for the impeached former president of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, on charges of imposing martial law, organizing a rebellion, and abuse of power.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: Reports that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted: Reports that air raid alerts have been lifted across Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Military Losses in Kurakhove Direction: Reports from TASS, citing sources in the security forces, that Ukrainian forces have lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Airborne Forces: A video message from the communications department of the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, wishing viewers a happy new year and thanking them for their support.
• No Lump-Sum Payments for Contracted Prisoners: A new decree from the Russian government denies lump-sum payments to prisoners who sign contracts to join the military.
• Drone Attack on Bryansk Oblast: Reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024, including a 40% increase in rapes.
• New Year's Greetings from the Police of Khabarovsk Krai: A photo message from the police of Khabarovsk Krai, wishing everyone a happy new year.
• New Advertisement for a Mobile Game: A new advertisement for a mobile game called "Battle of Drones: Ukraine," created by "real commanders during the war."
• New Russian Missile and Drone Attacks: Reports of new Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with damage reported in Shostka and Kyiv. Air raid alerts have been issued across the country.
• Praise for Russian General: A photo and message praising Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev as the "commander of the year," highlighting the successes of his troops in 2024.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted in Kyiv: Air raid alerts have been lifted in Kyiv, indicating a temporary de-escalation in the immediate threat.
• Ukrainian Drone Strikes Russian Helicopter: Ukrainian forces successfully used a Magura V5 naval drone equipped with an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile to shoot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea.
• Ukrainian Military Losses in Kurakhove Direction: Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian Airborne Forces: A video message from the communications department of the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, thanking viewers for their support.
• Russian Government Denies Lump-Sum Payments to Contracted Prisoners: A new decree from the Russian government denies lump-sum payments to prisoners who sign contracts to join the military.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024, including a 40% increase in rapes.
• Propaganda Efforts: A video from a Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume delivering a holiday message and a video from the Telegram channel "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" showing a drone targeting Ukrainian personnel and positions, followed by artillery strikes, are examples of ongoing propaganda efforts.
• Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus and presented a traditional Ukrainian shirt to al-Julani.
• Report of non-public part of negotiations between Ukrainian delegation and Damascus: Kyiv is reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists, particularly Chechens, and weapons from the remnants of the Syrian government army.
• Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone: The report suggests that Chechen fighters who previously fought in Aleppo and Homs might soon appear in the conflict zone, fighting on the Ukrainian side.
• Report of Russian forces being attacked by soldiers from the Foreign Legion under Pokrovsk: Russian forces attacked soldiers from the Foreign Legion near Pokrovsk.
• Three Russian soldiers were released from hospitals: The condition of three other soldiers remains critical.
• Renewed attack on Lgov with 8 Storm Shadow missiles: The attack suggests the use of Western long-range precision weapons against targets in Russia.
• Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration: Ruslan Kravchenko has been appointed head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine.
• Inspection of combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines: Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
• Report on the downing of a Russian helicopter by a Ukrainian drone: A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile.
• Sabotage in Tver: The Legion "Freedom of Russia" claimed responsibility for setting fire to a communication tower in Tver.
• Map Updates: Several changes to the map were reported, including Russian advances in various locations.
• Southwest of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): Reports of Russian successes in the village of Solenoye, with the intention to encircle Pokrovsk and minimize Ukrainian logistical routes.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Confirmation of Russian offensive actions west of Myrnohrad, with Russian forces advancing several kilometers after crossing the Kazenny Torets River. They reportedly control Vozdvizhenka and a major strongpoint along the C-05-09-07 highway.
• Use of Fireworks and Impact on Veterans: Discussion about the negative impact of fireworks on veterans suffering from PTSD.
• Opening of Transport Interchange in Grozny: Kadyrov announced the opening of the second stage of a transport interchange in Grozny, highlighting its importance for the city's infrastructure.
• Propaganda and Morale-Boosting Efforts: A video shows a Russian soldier dressed as Santa Claus firing a tank, intended to boost morale and project a festive image despite the ongoing conflict.
• EU Funding to Hungary: The EU has frozen 1 billion euros in funding to Hungary due to corruption concerns.
• New Year's Greetings from Ukrainian and Russian Leaders: New Year greetings from both Ukrainian and Russian leaders provide further insight into the morale and strategic messaging of both sides.
• Delivery of New Tanks to Russian Forces: The delivery of new T-90M and upgraded T-72B3M tanks to Russian forces indicates a continued focus on bolstering armored capabilities.
• Oil Spill in Anapa: Reports of a new oil spill on the beaches of Anapa following a storm, with cleanup efforts underway.
• Strategic Gas Shutdown: Reports of the complete shutdown of Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe, with significant implications for European energy markets.
• Alleged Ukrainian Drone Strike Near Presidential Office: Reports of a Ukrainian drone strike near the Presidential Office in Kyiv, indicating a potential security breach.
• Czech Foreign Minister's Statement: The Czech Foreign Minister emphasized that peace begins with holding Russia accountable and reaffirmed Czech support for Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Military Awards in Kursk Direction: Reports of Ukrainian military personnel being awarded for their actions in the Kursk direction, suggesting significant engagements in the area.
• Symbolic Messaging and Propaganda: Images and videos shared by both sides, including a satirical depiction of NATO toilet paper and a video of Ukrainian soldiers celebrating New Year, are used to convey messages and influence public perception.
• Military Situation Maps: Various maps shared by the Z Committee provide detailed overviews of territorial control, troop movements, and fortifications in different regions, including the Kupyansk, Lyman, South-Donetsk, Konstantinovskoe, and Zaporozhye directions.
• Drone Strikes and Air Defense: Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes, including one targeting a Russian helicopter with an R-73 missile, and Russian air defense shooting down drones over various regions.
• Training of Ukrainian Pilots: 200 Ukrainian aviators have completed basic training in the UK, including flying F-16s.
• Damage to Civilian Infrastructure: Reports of damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol and other areas due to Russian shelling and drone attacks.
• Alleged Use of Old Footage by Ukraine: Reports that Ukraine used old footage of a South Korean missile launch to claim the development of their own OTRK "Sapsan."
• Russian-Chinese Cooperation on AI: Reports of Russia and China deepening cooperation on artificial intelligence to challenge the US.
• Mobilization and Deployment Issues in Ukrainian Forces: Reports of Ukrainian soldiers being sent to the front lines immediately after training, with some going missing within days.
• Alleged Ukrainian Drone Strike Near Presidential Office: Reports of a Ukrainian drone strike near the Presidential Office in Kyiv, indicating a potential security breach.

Updated Situation:

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and dynamic. Russian forces continue their offensives, particularly in the Donetsk region, with significant advances reported near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal while attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical aspect of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The emergence of a ballistic missile threat adds complexity to the situation, with Kyiv, Shostka, Odesa, and Chornomorsk being potential targets.

The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with ongoing discussions about further support for Ukraine. The conflict's impact extends beyond the battlefield, affecting energy markets, international relations, and domestic politics in various countries. The use of propaganda, morale-boosting efforts, and symbolic messaging by both sides further complicates the situation, highlighting the multifaceted nature of modern warfare.

The situation is marked by intense fighting, strategic maneuvering, and significant humanitarian consequences. The coming days and weeks will likely see further developments, with the potential for escalation and significant shifts in the balance of power. The international community's response and support for Ukraine will play a crucial role in shaping the conflict's outcome.

Previous Report (2025-01-01 16:18:55Z)