Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 1, 2025, 15:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. Russian forces continue their offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have achieved significant progress. They control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, having captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant, and are advancing towards Pokrovsk and in the Vremivka direction. Intense fighting is reported in the center of Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), and there are reports of some Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk being destroyed. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal, reportedly retreating from Kurakhove to avoid encirclement and repositioning to a new defense line near the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are reported in the Kursk region and near Kreminna.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple oblasts. A massive drone attack targeted Ukraine overnight, with 111 drones launched by Russia. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 63 drones, while 46 were "locationally lost" due to active countermeasures. Two drones reportedly flew into Russia and Belarus. A severe drone attack on Kyiv resulted in at least six casualties and damage to infrastructure, including a fire on the roof of a building of the National Bank of Ukraine. At least two people were found dead in a residential building in the Pechersk district of Kyiv as a result of the attack, and the number of casualties has risen to 7, including 2 pregnant women. Reports indicate that Russian forces used fog and smoke grenades to cover their attacks in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Russian forces claim to have captured two Mi-8 helicopters with their crews.

Ukraine officially halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory as of 07:00 on January 1, 2025, citing national security interests. "Gazprom" confirmed the cessation, attributing it to the expiration of the five-year contract and Ukraine's refusal to extend it. This is expected to significantly impact European energy markets, with gas prices already rising. The EU stated its "readiness" for this development, while Berlin called on private enterprises to economize. In Pridnestrovie, central heating and hot water supply have been cut off. Slovakian Prime Minister Fico stated that the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine would have severe consequences for the EU, but not for Russia.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian energy facility that supplied the military-industrial complex. They also claimed to have destroyed three Ukrainian naval drones and shot down 7 HIMARS rockets and 66 drones over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian losses in the area of responsibility of the Russian "Western" group of forces are estimated at up to 330 military personnel. The "Southern" group of forces reportedly occupied more advantageous positions, with Ukrainian losses exceeding 250 military personnel. The "Eastern" group of forces is reportedly advancing into the depth of Ukrainian defenses, with Ukrainian losses exceeding 150 military personnel. The "Northern" and "Dnipro" groups of forces are estimated to have caused up to 85 Ukrainian military personnel casualties. The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region amounted to more than 480 soldiers. The Russian Armed Forces repelled six counterattacks by Ukrainian assault groups. Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that over the entire year of 2024, Russian forces expanded their control zone by 3680 sq. km.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Kyiv:
  • Extensive drone attacks with multiple drones approaching from various directions.
  • Air defense systems actively engaging hostile drones, shooting down around ten near Kyiv.
  • Explosions heard in Kyiv.
  • Falling drone debris reported in multiple districts, causing fires and damage to buildings, including the National Bank of Ukraine.
  • At least seven casualties reported, with two women found dead in a residential building.
  • At least four "Shahed" drones reportedly attacked residential buildings in the center of Kyiv.
• Sevastopol: Drone attack repelled, multiple drones and at least one naval drone shot down over the Black Sea.
• Mykolaiv Region: Ukrainian air defense engaged multiple Russian drones, with explosions reported in Mykolaiv. Ukrainian mobile fire groups operating in the eastern direction shot down multiple drones overnight.
• Donetsk Oblast: Extensive use of drones by both sides, with drone attacks on command posts, logistics routes, and military equipment. Drone operators from the "Center" group reportedly eliminated a Ukrainian observation post in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Sumy Oblast: Drone attacks threatening the region, with drones moving towards Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts.
• Poltava Oblast: Multiple drones reported, moving southwest and constantly changing course.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three drones reported, moving northwest. Air raid alerts issued.
• Other Regions: Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions (Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia Oblasts), with air raid alerts issued and reports of drone movements and engagements.
• Russia: Over 10 drones detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh. 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight by air defense systems over Russian territory. 5 were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, 3 over Kursk Oblast, 2 each over Belgorod and Tula Oblasts, and 1 over Astrakhan Oblast. 2 Ukrainian drones were also shot down over Belgorod and Kursk regions.

Ground Operations

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city. Intense clashes continue. The clean-up of the Ukrainian group at the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant continues.
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled an attack on Velyka Novosilka.
  • Toretsk: Russian forces advanced near the Toretska mine and behind New York. Street fighting continues. Russian forces reportedly destroyed some Ukrainian positions using fog and smoke grenades.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces have effectively cut off the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Heavy fighting reported. Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions near Promin and Sukhyi Yar. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Baranivka and Zelene Pole.
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues in the urban areas. Russian forces reportedly destroyed some Ukrainian positions using fog and smoke grenades.
• Kharkiv Oblast:
  • Enemy attacked twice near Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
  • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
  • Clashes were reported near Vovchansk.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts.
  • Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka.
  • Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have lost an M113 and a BMP-1 in this area.
• Kupiansk Direction: The enemy attempted to advance 16 times near several settlements. Six clashes are ongoing. Clashes were also reported near Lozova, Nova Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove.
• Siversk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault using drones.
• Lyman Direction: Clashes were reported near Nadiia, Pershotravneve, Zelenyi Hai, Novoyehorivka, Yampolivka, Terny, Dibrova, and towards Druzhbivka, Cherneshchyna, Novoserhiivka.
• Sieversk Direction: Clashes were reported near Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Clashes were reported near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne.
• Toretsk Direction: Clashes were reported near Shcherbynivka, Bila Hora, and Toretsk.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Clashes were reported near Zelene Pole, Baranivka, Novotoretske, Promin, Lysivka, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, Solone, Shevchenko, Novooleksandrivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Vovkove, Pishchane, and Novovasylivka.
• Kurakhivka Direction: Clashes were reported near Petropavlivka, Dachne, Ukrayinka, Shevchenko, and Kurakhove.
• Vremivka Direction: Clashes were reported near Kostiantynopolske, Dachne, Rozlyv, Velyka Novosilka, and Neskuchne.
• Orikhiv Direction: Clashes were reported near Novoandriivka.
• Kherson Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian assaults. A new Ukrainian coastal defense brigade is reported to be operating in the area.
• Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces repelled 13 Russian assaults.

Strategic and Political Developments

• Gas Transit: Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory. The EU stated its "readiness" for this development. Gazprom has lost the ability to supply gas through Ukraine. The transit of gas through Ukraine may be partially replaced by increasing supplies through Turkey and Bulgaria.
• Russian MoD Claims: Russian forces struck a Ukrainian energy facility supplying the military-industrial complex.
• Ukrainian Military Ombudsman: President Zelensky appointed Olga Reshetilova as the new military ombudsman.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar.
• Financial Times Prediction: Predicts a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the next year.
• Slovakian Prime Minister's Statement: Slovakian Prime Minister Fico stated that the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine would have severe consequences for the EU, but not for Russia.
• Ukrainian Response to Zelensky's New Year's Address: Many Ukrainians expressed their dissatisfaction with Zelensky's New Year's address on social media, with some calling for his removal and new elections.
• Sky News Report on Potential Negotiations: Sky News reports that the Kremlin hopes to conclude negotiations on Ukraine by May 9th, aiming for a "double celebration" and portraying any outcome as a victory.
• Putin-Sberbank Cooperation: Putin has instructed the Cabinet of Ministers, together with Sberbank, to ensure further cooperation between Russia and China in the field of artificial intelligence.
• New Year Greetings: The 137th Guards Airborne Regiment sent New Year greetings.
• Transnistria Gas Supply: Domestic consumers in Transnistria have been cut off from gas supplies due to the cessation of supplies from Russia.
• Yemeni Houthis Claim Drone Downing: Yemeni Houthis claimed to have shot down 14 American MQ-9 drones, with losses estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars.
• Hungary: Hungary lost 1 billion euros due to non-compliance with EU standards.

Casualties and Losses

• Russian Losses: Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment.
• Ukrainian Losses: Reportedly eliminated over 160 Russian troops in the Donetsk direction in December. At least three battalions lost in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
• North Korean Soldiers: Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with a massive drone attack on Ukraine overnight and ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions. The use of drones by Ukrainian forces is prolific and effective, targeting Russian personnel, vehicles, and equipment. The "Butusov Plus" Battalion of the 110th Mechanized Brigade released a compilation video highlighting the effectiveness of their drone operations, claiming to have destroyed a significant amount of Russian equipment and personnel. The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine marks a significant development with potential ramifications for European energy markets. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The new information confirms the intensity of the drone attacks and their impact on civilian infrastructure, as well as the strategic implications of the gas transit halt. The reported casualties and the destruction of Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk highlight the intensity of the fighting on the ground. The appointment of a new Ukrainian military ombudsman and the reported agreement between SpaceX and Kyivstar to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine are also noteworthy developments. The Financial Times' prediction of a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the next year adds an element of speculation to the overall situation. The negative reactions to Zelensky's New Year's address on Ukrainian social media and the Slovakian Prime Minister's statement on the consequences of the gas transit halt provide further insight into the political and economic dimensions of the conflict. The Russian Ministry of Defense's claims about the losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment provide a Russian perspective on the ongoing conflict.

New Information Analysis

New Messages

The new messages introduce several important updates:

• Game Advertisement: Multiple messages advertise a new online game called "Drone Battle: Ukraine" created by "real commanders" during the war. The game features FPV drones, electronic warfare, and various Russian weapon systems. This development highlights the gamification of warfare and its potential use in propaganda and recruitment.
• Video of Russian Soldier: A video shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle in the Donetsk region. The soldier's commentary indicates casualties among the Russian assault group. This provides further evidence of the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: The director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Yuri Chernichuk, announced plans to obtain Russian licenses for all six power units by 2028, with the first license expected by the end of 2025. This indicates Russia's intention to fully integrate the plant into its energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian Reactions to Zelensky's New Year's Address: Reports of negative reactions to Zelensky's New Year's address continue, with some Ukrainians expressing dissatisfaction and calling for his removal. This suggests growing internal political tensions in Ukraine.
• Casualty Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian forces suffered over 480 casualties in the Kursk region in a single day. This claim, if true, would represent a significant loss for Ukraine.
• Russian Ministry of Defense Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a summary of the military situation as of January 1, 2025, highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian naval drones, significant Ukrainian casualties in various sectors, and the downing of HIMARS rockets and drones. They also claimed to have damaged a Ukrainian energy facility and military infrastructure. The summary also reports the total number of Ukrainian equipment destroyed since the beginning of the operation.
• Territorial Control Statistics: Data from the Lost Armour service indicates that Russian forces expanded their control zone by 3680 sq. km in 2024, with a net gain of 3157 sq. km after accounting for the temporarily occupied part of the Kursk region. This data suggests a significant Russian advance throughout the year.
• Video of Ukrainian Mobile Fire Groups: A video shows Ukrainian mobile fire groups operating in the eastern direction on the night of January 1, 2025. This highlights Ukraine's continued efforts to counter Russian drone attacks.
• Video of Rescue Operations in Kyiv: A video shows rescue workers in Kyiv responding to the aftermath of a Russian attack, highlighting the ongoing threat to civilian areas and infrastructure.
• Shelter in Zaporizhzhia: Reports indicate that a "Point of Invincibility" shelter in Zaporizhzhia is operating 24/7, providing refuge for civilians, including the elderly and families with children. This highlights the humanitarian aspect of the conflict and the ongoing need for civilian protection.
• Minimum Price of Vodka: The minimum price of vodka and other strong alcoholic beverages has been increased in Russia.
• Caviar in Trash: A photo shows a tin of black caviar thrown in the trash, suggesting a possible propaganda attempt or a commentary on the lavish lifestyle of certain individuals in contrast to the ongoing war.
• Recycling Bins: An image shows a regular recycling bin setup, highlighting the functioning of civilian infrastructure in some areas.
• Criticism of the 155th Brigade's Deployment: A message criticizes the splitting up and deployment of the 155th Mechanized Brigade, citing logistical and supply issues, as well as high losses. The brigade reportedly lacked adequate equipment and training.
• Sky News Report on Potential Negotiations: Sky News reports that the Kremlin hopes to conclude negotiations on Ukraine by May 9th, aiming for a "double celebration" and portraying any outcome as a victory.
• Damage to Buildings in Kyiv: Videos show rescue operations in Kyiv following a Russian attack, with reports of at least two deaths and seven injuries.
• Casualty Report by Russian MoD: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian forces suffered over 480 casualties in the Kursk region in a single day.
• Summary of Russian Military Operations: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a summary of the military situation as of January 1, 2025, highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian naval drones, significant Ukrainian casualties in various sectors, and the downing of HIMARS rockets and drones. They also claimed to have damaged a Ukrainian energy facility and military infrastructure.
• Gas Transit Halt: Reports indicate that the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine has been halted, impacting European gas supplies.
• Zelensky Video Analysis: A video of President Zelensky's New Year's address is analyzed, with claims that it features a South Korean missile system instead of a Ukrainian one.
• Sky News Analysis on Future Conflict: Sky News predicts potential developments in 2025, including the end of the conflict in Ukraine, a second Trump presidency, and China's challenge to the global order.
• Cutoff of Central Heating in Transnistria: Central heating has been cut off in Transnistria due to the halt of Russian gas supplies.
• Coordination of Car Insurance: Russia and Belarus are implementing a unified system of civil liability insurance for drivers.
• Call for Combat Footage: A Telegram channel is asking for combat footage from participants in the conflict.
• New Year Greetings from 137th Guards Airborne Regiment: The video includes a brief statement of holiday wishes from the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment backed by the regiment's flag, and combat footage of military hardware (tanks, self-propelled artillery) in action.
• Video of Ukrainian Soldier: A soldier from the 155th brigade explains logistical and supply issues.
• Video of Ukrainian Drone Strike: Ukrainian forces released a video showing a successful strike on a building used by the opposing force.
• Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Vehicle: A Russian soldier filmed the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian vehicle.
• New Year Greetings from Ukrainian Soldiers: Ukrainian soldiers from the 412th and 14th battalions sent New Year greetings and showed footage of their drone operations.
• Drone Attack on Kyiv: Reportedly, at least four "Shahed" drones attacked residential buildings in the center of Kyiv.
• Video of Su-25 Aircraft: A video shows a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft dropping French AASM-250 guided bombs on Russian positions in the Donetsk region.
• Search and Clear Operation: A video shows a group of soldiers conducting a search and clear operation in a rural area.
• Detainment Operation: A video shows a group of soldiers detaining civilians in an urban area.
• Targeted Tank: An image shows a tank targeted by a drone.
• Houthis Claim Downing of US Drones: Yemeni Houthis claimed to have shot down 14 American MQ-9 drones, causing significant financial losses.
• Image of Soldier with Drone Equipment: An image shows a soldier with drone equipment, including multiple drones and a controller.
• Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Armored Vehicle: A video from the "Воин DV" Telegram channel shows a Russian Lancet drone destroying a US-made M119 howitzer operated by Ukrainian forces.
• Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Tank: A video shows a Ukrainian drone targeting and striking a camouflaged Russian tank.
• Detainment Operation in Urban Area: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows Russian-speaking men, presumably soldiers, detaining multiple civilians in an urban area.
• Aftermath of Drone Attack in Kyiv: The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that the morning drone attack on Kyiv resulted in six injuries and two deaths.
• Destruction of Ukrainian Military Equipment: A video from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian armored vehicle carrying infantry in the Kharkiv region.
• Alleged Execution of Finnish Mercenary: A photo from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel claims that Russian forces killed a Finnish mercenary, Alexi Lisander, who had previously served in the French Foreign Legion.
• Downing of US Drones by Houthis: A message from the "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel reports that Yemeni Houthis claimed to have shot down 14 US MQ-9 drones, with estimated losses of hundreds of millions of dollars.
• Missile Attacks: Missile attacks were reported in Sumy Oblast, with a missile moving from the south of the region towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. Another missile was reported moving from Bilhorod Oblast towards Sumy Oblast. A high-speed target was reported in the northern part of Chernihiv Oblast.
• Air Activity: Increased air activity was reported, with the launch of X-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers. Six Tu-22M3 strategic bombers were launched from the Olenya and Engels air bases.
• Rocket Threat: The Ukrainian Air Force reported a rocket threat for Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• New Messages:
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv.
  • A video from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel shows a nighttime flight operation, possibly a training exercise, where flares/chaff countermeasures are deployed. The video also shows a runway approach, indicating the aircraft is landing.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Donetsk.
  • The next round of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program will take place in Geneva on January 13, according to Iranian sources. Representatives from Tehran and European countries will participate in the negotiations. The meeting will take place a week before Trump's inauguration, which is scheduled for January 20.
  • Warriors of the Main Intelligence Directorate received a unique unmanned aerial system "Hazard" and a HMMWV vehicle. The drone's design, made of composite materials, allows it to remain invisible to enemy electronic warfare. The drone's silent operation in the air ensures maximum stealth. The intelligence officers received the "New Year's gifts" from the American charitable organization Help Heroes of Ukraine.

Impact on the Situation

These updates reinforce the following aspects of the military situation:

• Drone Warfare: The continued emphasis on drone warfare is evident, with both sides using drones for attacks, reconnaissance, and psychological operations. The new game advertisement further underscores the growing importance of drones in modern warfare. The Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian vehicle, as filmed by a Russian soldier, provides a firsthand account of the effectiveness of these tactics. The video of Ukrainian mobile fire groups highlights their continued efforts to counter Russian drone attacks.
• Civilian Impact: The reports of casualties in Kyiv and the operation of shelters in Zaporizhzhia highlight the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilians. The destruction of civilian infrastructure and the need for humanitarian assistance remain critical concerns.
• Information Warfare: The game advertisement, the Russian Ministry of Defense summary, and the reports of negative reactions to Zelensky's address all demonstrate the ongoing information war. Both sides are attempting to shape public perception and influence morale.
• Territorial Control: The data on territorial control indicates a significant Russian advance in 2024, particularly in the Donetsk region. This suggests that Russian forces have gained momentum, despite Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Strategic Developments: The plans for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant indicate Russia's long-term strategy for integrating captured territories into its infrastructure. The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine has significant implications for European energy security and will likely lead to further shifts in energy policy.
• Russian Military Progress: Reports continue to indicate a Russian advance, with significant territorial gains reported by the Lost Armour service and the Russian Ministry of Defense. The situation near Pokrovsk appears particularly critical, with Russian forces reportedly approaching key transportation routes.
• Ukrainian Military Challenges: The messages highlight significant challenges faced by the Ukrainian military, including inadequate equipment supplies, logistical difficulties, and high casualties. The criticism of the 155th Brigade's deployment suggests internal issues within the Ukrainian military command.
• Information Warfare and Propaganda: Both sides continue to engage in information warfare, with reports and videos aimed at influencing public opinion and boosting morale. The advertisement for the "Drone Battle: Ukraine" game and the video of the Russian soldier filming a drone strike aftermath are examples of this trend.
• Geopolitical Implications: The halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and the reported discussions about potential negotiations have significant geopolitical implications, particularly for European energy security and the broader relationship between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. The Sky News report on potential negotiations suggests a possible shift in the strategic calculus of the involved parties.
• Foreign Involvement: The reported involvement of Finnish mercenaries and the continued use of Western-supplied equipment, such as the French AASM-250 guided bombs and the US-made M119 howitzer, highlight the international dimension of the conflict.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with the new game advertisement highlighting its growing importance. The use of drones by Ukrainian forces is prolific and effective, targeting Russian personnel, vehicles, and equipment, as evidenced by the video of a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike and the New Year greetings from the drone battalions. The video from the "Воин DV" Telegram channel showing the destruction of a US-made M119 howitzer and the video of a Ukrainian drone striking a camouflaged Russian tank further demonstrate the intensity of the drone warfare. The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine marks a significant development with potential ramifications for European energy markets. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The new information confirms the intensity of the drone attacks and their impact on civilian infrastructure, as well as the strategic implications of the gas transit halt. The reported casualties and the destruction of Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk highlight the intensity of the fighting on the ground. The appointment of a new Ukrainian military ombudsman and the reported agreement between SpaceX and Kyivstar to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine are also noteworthy developments. The Financial Times' prediction of a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the next year adds an element of speculation to the overall situation. The negative reactions to Zelensky's New Year's address on Ukrainian social media and the Slovakian Prime Minister's statement on the consequences of the gas transit halt provide further insight into the political and economic dimensions of the conflict. The Russian Ministry of Defense's claims about the losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment provide a Russian perspective on the ongoing conflict. The data on territorial control indicates a significant Russian advance in 2024, particularly in the Donetsk region. The plans for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant suggest Russia's long-term strategy for integrating captured territories. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks. The ongoing drone warfare, the impact on civilians, and the information war continue to be defining features of the conflict. The new messages further emphasize the critical role of drones, the ongoing humanitarian crisis, and the importance of information warfare. The reported territorial gains by Russian forces, coupled with the challenges faced by the Ukrainian military, suggest a shifting balance of power on the ground. The geopolitical implications of the gas transit halt and potential negotiations add another layer of complexity to the overall situation. The involvement of external actors, such as the Yemeni Houthis claiming to have shot down US drones, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict, highlighting the interconnected nature of modern warfare and the potential for proxy conflicts to influence the situation on the ground. The reported use of French AASM-250 guided bombs by Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft indicates the continued flow of Western military aid to Ukraine. The alleged execution of a Finnish mercenary, if true, would further highlight the international dimension of the conflict and the presence of foreign fighters. Reports of missile attacks in Sumy Oblast and increased air activity indicate a potential escalation in the conflict. The use of guided aerial bombs in the direction of Kharkiv is particularly concerning, as it suggests a potential escalation in the conflict and an increased threat to civilian populations. The video from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel, while not directly related to the ongoing conflict, provides insight into the potential use of countermeasures by military aircraft. The deployment of flares/chaff suggests the aircraft is operating in an area where there is an active threat from anti-aircraft missile systems. The video could also be part of a training exercise, where pilots practice the deployment of countermeasures and night flying maneuvers. The use of guided aerial bombs in the direction of Donetsk is a significant development. The next round of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, scheduled to take place in Geneva on January 13, is a noteworthy development. The participation of representatives from Tehran and European countries, just a week before Trump's inauguration, adds a layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The receipt of a unique unmanned aerial system "Hazard" and a HMMWV vehicle by the warriors of the Main Intelligence Directorate is a significant development. The drone's design, made of composite materials, and its silent operation in the air provide a tactical advantage by remaining invisible to enemy electronic warfare. The "New Year's gifts" from the American charitable organization Help Heroes of Ukraine highlight the continued international support for Ukraine's military efforts.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages

• Missile Threat: A new missile threat has been issued for Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk.
• Fighterbomber Video: A video from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel shows a nighttime flight operation, possibly a training exercise, where flares/chaff countermeasures are deployed. The video also shows a runway approach, indicating the aircraft is landing.
• Iran Nuclear Negotiations: The next round of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program will take place in Geneva on January 13.
• Ukrainian Military Aid: The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate received a new unmanned aerial system "Hazard" and a HMMWV vehicle from the American charitable organization Help Heroes of Ukraine.

These updates indicate a potential escalation in the conflict, with increased air activity and the use of guided aerial bombs. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further developments in the coming hours. The use of guided aerial bombs in the direction of Kharkiv is particularly concerning, as it suggests a potential escalation in the conflict and an increased threat to civilian populations. The video from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel, while not directly related to the ongoing conflict, provides insight into the potential use of countermeasures by military aircraft. The deployment of flares/chaff suggests the aircraft is operating in an area where there is an active threat from anti-aircraft missile systems. The video could also be part of a training exercise, where pilots practice the deployment of countermeasures and night flying maneuvers. The use of guided aerial bombs in the direction of Donetsk is a significant development. The next round of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, scheduled to take place in Geneva on January 13, is a noteworthy development. The participation of representatives from Tehran and European countries, just a week before Trump's inauguration, adds a layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The receipt of a unique unmanned aerial system "Hazard" and a HMMWV vehicle by the warriors of the Main Intelligence Directorate is a significant development. The drone's design, made of composite materials, and its silent operation in the air provide a tactical advantage by remaining invisible to enemy electronic warfare. The "New Year's gifts" from the American charitable organization Help Heroes of Ukraine highlight the continued international support for Ukraine's military efforts.

Previous Key Takeaways

• Moldova is no longer receiving electricity from the Moldavskaya GRES power station in Transnistria.
• Moldova is now receiving electricity from Romania.
• There is a fundraising effort to obtain a generator, a drone, and a Bulat vehicle for the use of Russian paratroopers.
• The EU believes its gas infrastructure is flexible enough to supply gas to countries in Central and Eastern Europe without Russian gas.
• Two police officers were wounded in New Orleans after a shooting.
• The authorities in New Orleans have declared the shooting to be a terrorist attack.
• A video game called "Drone Battle: Ukraine" has been created by "real commanders" that allows players to simulate drone warfare.
• Zelensky mistook South Korean missiles for Ukrainian missiles in his New Year's address.
• The year 1941 has the same calendar as 2025.
• A bus stop has been decorated with the text "Heroes' Avenue," a picture of a Soviet-era jet fighter, and a green camouflage pattern. There is also a concrete box with a star and a yellow circle, possibly indicating Wagner group presence.
• Russian forces have reportedly destroyed Ukrainian personnel and a stronghold on the border of Kursk Oblast using guided missiles.
• Due to the halt in Russian gas transit, there are now reports of trolleybuses stopping, electricity outages, and a lack of heating and hot water in Moldova.
• Transnistria no longer has heating or hot water as a result of the halt in Russian gas transit.
• In 2024, Ukraine received $41.7 billion in external financing.
• The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov, reported that Ukrainian air defense intercepted Russian guided bombs and drones on New Year's Eve.
• In Yakutia, a sculpture of a snake was made out of manure.
• Zelensky stated in his New Year's address that he would do everything possible to defeat Russia, but also said in an interview with Sky News that he is ready to cede territory to achieve peace.
• A video shows soldiers being treated in a makeshift medical facility.
• The 20th OPBS K-2 Battalion released a video showing a mass assault on December 14th.
• Poland has taken over the presidency of the EU

Previous Report (2025-01-01 15:21:23Z)