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Situation Report

2025-04-20 04:25:59Z
Previous Report (2025-04-20 03:55:22Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from Intelligence up to Sun Apr 20 04:24:52 2025)

I. Strategic & Information Operations Developments

  • Easter Ceasefire Status (Declared by Russia Apr 19, 19:00 Kyiv Time - Apr 21, 01:00 Kyiv Time):
    • CONFIRMED VIOLATIONS (Zelenskyy citing Syrskyi, 06:00 Apr 20): The declared ceasefire is not holding. Between 00:00 and 06:00 Apr 20, 59 Russian shelling incidents and 5 Russian ground assault actions were recorded across various frontline directions. Activity was also high leading up to midnight (18:00-00:00 Apr 19: 387 RU shellings, 19 RU assaults, 290 RU drone uses).
    • Ukrainian Stance (Zelenskyy, Apr 20): Russia is attempting to create an impression of ceasefire adherence while continuing attacks. Ukraine will respond proportionally ("mirror actions"). The Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire extension remains valid, contingent on Russian compliance.
    • Russian Perspective (RU Sources - Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): Acknowledges fighting continued, claiming RU forces are authorized to return fire. Some RU troops noted relative quiet overnight ("strange silence"). Ceasefire potentially used tactically to evacuate wounded from areas under UA drone control. Framing ceasefire as RU gesture undermined by Kyiv/West.
  • Information Operations & Morale:
    • CONFIRMED (TASS/MoD RU, Apr 20): Russian state media released video depicting Orthodox priests conducting religious ceremonies, blessing soldiers and icons for personnel of the "Center" Group of Forces (Pokrovsk Axis).
    • OBSERVED (Multiple RU/UA Sources, Apr 20): Continued dissemination of Easter greetings and messages emphasizing faith, national unity, resilience, and proper conduct across military-affiliated channels (RU: Dnevnik Desantnika, Fighterbomber, Basurin, Aratamonov; UA: Prosecutor General, UA Air Assault Forces, Syrskyi via GSh ZSU, Presidential Brigade Chaplain). Used for morale boosting and reinforcing national narratives.
  • Russian Global Force Posture:
    • CONFIRMED (Colonelcassad citing Syrian source, Apr 20): Russian airbase at El-Qamishli, Syria, reported fully operational with no signs of troop withdrawal. Video shows damaged Russian Beriev A-40 aircraft present. Confirms continued Russian military commitment outside Ukraine.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Warfare / Naval / Logistics Impact

  • Black Sea Naval Threat:
    • CONFIRMED & UNCHANGED (UA General Staff, 06:00 Apr 20): One Russian Kalibr missile carrier remains on combat duty in the Black Sea, capable of launching up to 6 Kalibr cruise missiles.
    • Status: No Russian naval assets reported active in the Sea of Azov. Two Kalibr carriers remain in the Mediterranean Sea (potential total volley of 12 missiles).
    • Kerch Strait Traffic (Past 24h): 6 vessels transited towards Black Sea (5 continuing to Bosporus); 6 vessels transited towards Azov Sea (4 arriving from Bosporus). Russia continues violating SOLAS convention by disabling AIS.
    • Assessment: Sustained direct naval missile threat from the Black Sea persists. Mediterranean assets provide additional over-the-horizon strike potential.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Strikes (Past 24h):
    • CONFIRMED (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 20): Extremely high level of Russian activity reported across 18 settlements. Total of 389 strikes:
      • 15 Aviation Strikes: Including Novoyakovlivka, Stepnohirsk, Lukyanivske, Pavlivka, Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Novodarivka.
      • 199 UAV Attacks: Including Zaporizhzhia city, Malokaterynivka, Bilenke, Prymorske, Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka.
      • 6 MLRS Strikes: Shchaslyve, Huliaipole, Charivne, Novodarivka.
      • 169 Artillery Strikes: Including Lukyanivske, Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka.
    • Casualties/Damage: 1 civilian (42M) wounded in Vasylivskyi district. 29 reports of damage to civilian property/infrastructure.
    • Russian Claim (Colonelcassad citing Soldieroffortune777, Apr 20): Following earlier Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia city (night Apr 19/20), RU sources claim target was an "automobile transport enterprise" allegedly repairing AFU equipment. (Requires verification).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis Strikes (Bohatyr):
    • Russian Claim (Voin_DV, Apr 20): RU 14th Spetsnaz Brigade ("Vostok" Group) released drone footage claiming destruction of an alleged Ukrainian shelter/position in Bohatyr, Volnovakha Raion. Corroborates earlier RU artillery strike claims in the area.
  • Vremivka Direction Strikes (Novopavlivsk/Zaporizhzhia Border Area):
    • Russian Claim (Colonelcassad citing Voin_DV, Apr 20): RU 69th Separate Covering Brigade ("Vostok" Group) released drone footage claiming destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew, a Starlink terminal, and personnel. Indicates continued RU reconnaissance-strike ops targeting UA C2/Comms and fire assets.
  • Kharkiv Oblast Strike (Podoly):
    • Russian Claim (Colonelcassad citing Secrets_of_Vinakos, Apr 20): Drone footage claimed destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck near Podoly, Kupyansk District by RU 16th Spetsnaz Brigade.
  • Kursk Oblast Strikes (Against UA Forces):
    • Confirmed (Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20): Russian artillery strikes and drone usage reported in Kursk Oblast (presumably targeting UA positions/activity).

III. Axis Updates (Based on Latest Reports & Ceasefire Violations)

(Note: Ground situation reports integrate information up to 06:00 Apr 20, including ceasefire violations reported by UA leadership and RU source claims.)

A. Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity)

  • Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20): Part of 3 RU ground assaults reported in OTU "Donetsk" (which includes Pokrovsk) between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): RU "Center" Group forces renewed offensive, attacking outskirts of Myrolyubivka from direction of Novotoretske.
  • Status (as of Apr 19 report): Fierce fighting previously reported W/NW of Kotlyne towards Udachne. High RU pressure continues. RU MoD highlighted religious ceremonies for "Center" Group forces active on this axis (Apr 20).

B. Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk)

  • Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20): Part of 3 RU ground assaults reported in OTU "Donetsk" (which includes Novopavlivsk) between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Voin DV, Colonelcassad, Apr 20): "Vostok" Group continues push towards Otradne and Bohatyr. Claimed drone strikes destroying UA shelter in Bohatyr (14th Spetsnaz) and mortar/Starlink/personnel on Vremivka salient (69th Bde).
  • Status (as of Apr 19 report): Previous RU claims of expanded control SE of Bohatyr and clearing treeline SE of Otradne.

C. Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Huliaipole)

  • Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20): 1 RU ground assault reported in the Zaporizhzhia direction near Stepove between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • High Intensity RU Strikes (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 20): 389 strikes across the oblast in the past 24 hours (15 air, 199 UAV, 6 MLRS, 169 Arty). Targeted locations include Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka, Kamyanske.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): RU forces advancing near Shcherbaky and towards Orikhiv. Claimed entry into Mala Tokmachka and consolidation near Novodanylivka. Acknowledged heavy UA FPV drone use hindering RU operations.
  • Status (as of Apr 19/20 reports): Confirmed RU Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia city (night Apr 19/20), RU claim target was vehicle repair facility.

D. Kupyansk / Lyman / Oskil / Siversk Axes (OTU "Starobilsk")

  • Ceasefire Violations (Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20): 1 RU ground assault ("combat clash") reported in OTU "Starobilsk" between 00:00-06:00 Apr 20.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 20):
    • Kupyansk: Heavy fighting near Stepova Novoselivka. Claimed expansion of RU control zone on western bank of Oskil River north of Kupyansk. Fighting for Mala Shapkivka with objective to cut UA supply routes from the north.
    • Lyman: Fighting initiated for Nove settlement and near Katerynivka.
  • Status (as of Apr 19/20 reports): RU FPV strikes claimed near Petropavlivka (Apr 19). RU claim destruction of UA pickup near Podoly (Apr 20). Previous RU claims of advances near Nove/Hrekivka/Zelena Dolyna.

E. Toretsk Axis

  • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): RU forces advancing near Tarasivka, north of Kalynove, Sukha Balka, and Valentynivka.
  • Status (as of Apr 19 report): High intensity. RU confirmed capture of Valentynivka, claimed advances near Sukha Balka/Kalynove. Previous UA claim of potential chemical agent use via drone (requires verification).

F. Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson)

  • Ukrainian Activity Claim (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): Reports Ukrainian forces became active ("crawled brazenly") near Oleshky. RU forces responded with artillery and drone fire.
  • Status (as of Apr 19 report): UA maintains bridgehead(s). Third RU Borisoglebsk-2 EW system destruction confirmed by UA (Apr 19).

G. Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone

  • Russian Activity (Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20): Russian artillery strikes and drone usage confirmed in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): Fighting continues near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod Oblast), claims UA offensive stalled with heavy losses. Casts doubt on earlier RU MoD report regarding capture of Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast), deeming it "premature". Claims continued RU strikes on civilian areas in Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod regions.
  • Status (as of Apr 19 report): High intensity cross-border clashes. UA reported activity/holding positions in Kursk, expanded control in Belgorod (Zelenskyy).

H. Kramatorsk Axis

  • Status (as of Apr 19 report): RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar area. Localized RU tactical actions reported N of Chasiv Yar (Apr 19).

IV. Capabilities & Logistics

  • Ukrainian:
    • Naval Awareness: Actively monitoring Black Sea threats; GSh ZSU confirms 1 RU Kalibr carrier active.
    • Logistics/Comms: Targeted by RU strikes (Starlink terminal claimed destroyed on Vremivka direction). Alleged vehicle repair facility targeted in Zaporizhzhia (RU claim).
    • Ground Activity (Kherson): Potentially conducting probing actions or reconnaissance near Oleshky (RU claim).
    • Vehicles: Loss of pickup truck near Podoly claimed by RU. Mortar crew loss claimed by RU on Vremivka direction.
    • Morale/Resilience: Official Easter messaging reinforces national unity. High command acknowledges ongoing RU attacks despite ceasefire declaration.
  • Russian:
    • Naval Missile Capability: Sustained Kalibr threat from Black Sea (6 missiles) and Mediterranean (12 missiles).
    • Reconnaissance-Strike: Continued effective use of drones for targeting (Claims: Bohatyr shelter, Vremivka mortar/Starlink, Podoly pickup). "Dozens" of FPV uses reported by UA since ceasefire start.
    • Targeting Priorities: Claimed strikes on alleged vehicle repair facility (Zaporizhzhia), shelter (Bohatyr), mortar & Starlink (Vremivka) suggest focus on degrading UA logistics, C2/Comms, and fire support.
    • Aviation/Artillery/MLRS: High tempo of strikes maintained in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (389 total in 24h). Aviation strikes reported across multiple settlements. Arty/drones used in Kursk Oblast.
    • Ground Offensive Capability: Conducting ground assaults despite declared ceasefire on multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Starobilsk). Claims of advances persist across several sectors.
    • Information Operations: Employing religious/holiday themes for morale. Framing ceasefire situation to own advantage. Highlighting alleged UA losses/setbacks in border areas.
    • Logistical Concerns (Implied): RU source notes reliance on "humanitarian" drones in some Zaporizhzhia areas, suggesting potential official supply shortfalls. Mentions increased frontline requests for aid amidst drop in public support due to official narratives.

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations: Confirmed Russian shelling and ground assaults continuing after the declared start time increases risk to civilians and violates the premise of the declared pause.
  • Civilian Casualties & Risk:
    • Zaporizhzhia: 1 civilian wounded (Vasylivskyi district) due to RU attacks in past 24h. 29 instances of damage to civilian homes/infrastructure reported. Sustained high level of strikes poses ongoing threat.
    • Black Sea: Persistent Kalibr missile threat endangers coastal and southern regions.
    • Border Regions: RU claims continued strikes impacting civilians in Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod.
  • Targeting Claims: RU claim of targeting alleged military repair facility in Zaporizhzhia needs verification regarding distinction and proportionality. Claims of targeting shelters/positions (Bohatyr, Vremivka) inherently risk civilian harm if located in populated areas.
  • SOLAS Violations: Russia's continued disabling of AIS on Kerch Strait shipping endangers maritime safety.
Previous Report (2025-04-20 03:55:22Z)